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OCR for page 374
Energy Use and Environmental
Consequences in Poland
JAN H. JUDA
KAROI, BUDZINSKI
Institute of Environmental Engineering
Warsaw Technical University
The idealistic goal of most social systems and their economic activities
is to ensure optimum living conditions and human well-being both now and
in the foreseeable future. It is becoming increasingly apparent that this
goal will not be achieved unless greater attention is given to the proper
management and protection of the environment. This concept is gaining
support in all countries regardless of their differing political ideologies
and economic systems. Unfortunately, difficulties arise with the practical
implementation of this worthwhile principle.
The prevailing general opinion, in Poland as well as internationally,
is that the best means of analyzing problems of environmental protection
is through use of system analysis, an approach which takes into account
economic and sociological as well as ecological factors. These relationships
and interdependencies are illustrated in Figure 1.
The analysis of the interdependencies occuring in large and complex
systems should begin with the selection of optimum consumption models.
However, the model of consumption which has developed spontaneously
in the United States and is now considered as a target model for many
developing countries does not seem to be the optimum solution, particularly
from the point of view of rational management of the environment. Without
going into further philosophical considerations, it should be pointed out
that rational change in a society's consumption model is one of the most
significant factors affecting environmental quality over the long term.
It is impossible, even using advanced computer modeling, to analyze
the large system presented in Figure 1 to include all the consumption
patterns and resulting interrelationships between social and economic ac-
tivity and the environment. For this reason, it is necessary to divide the
large system into subsystems which comprise selected segments of social
374
OCR for page 375
ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT CASE STUDIES
my,
Consumption L
Activities
(Goods and Services)
375
Economic Activities
~ ~~\~
Strategy
Economic
Administrative \
Political
i'
_ Environmental Media
i= ~ Environment
_ Residuals (Waste) I
N~'~\
~1
FIGURE 1 Schematic system analysis approach.
demands. In Poland, large research programs have been devoted to the
study of the subsystem of supply and its effect on the environment. The-
following discussion presents some initial results and conclusions of this
program.
ENERGY SUPPLY
From the viewpoint of system analysis, Poland should first of all con-
sider possibilities of reducing gross energy consumption (Figure 2~. It is
regrettable that in Poland energy consumption per unit of national income
according to estimates by the World Bank is nearly twice as high as that in
the western developed countries. It is desirable to investigate all possible
cause-and-effect relationships. Planned changes in the Polish economic
structure and the gradual implementation of low and non-waste technolo-
gies should lead to a decrease of energy and raw material input into the
Gross National Product.
Ibble 1 presents current data on gross energy consumption (GEC) in
tons of coal equivalent in Poland, the United States, and the world, in total,
per capita, and per km2. GEC per capita in Poland is 0.65 times lower
then it is in the United States. Keeping in mind that environmental risk
depends on GEC per area unit of the country, it appears that in Poland
the potential risk is over three times as great as it is in the United States.
OCR for page 376
376
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OCR for page 378
378
ECOLOGICAL RISKS
TABLE 1 Gross energy consumption in 1985, in millions of tons coal equivalent (tee).
Unit Poland USA World
Gross Energy Conswnpiion (GEC) 106 lee 178 1,742 9,400
GEC per inhabitant lo6 lee 4.81 7.38 1.97
GEC per km2 1~ t" 570 1~ ---
Enerey Mix (percent of GEC)
Solid fuels % 79 26
Liquid fuels % 13 39
Gaseous fuels % 7 23
Hydro and geo % 1 5
Nuclear % 0 8
Another significant issue concerns types of energy use. The United
States uses 19% of the total world production of energy a very high pro-
portion. Although GEC per capita or per km2 offers no direct information
on environmental problems, what is of importance here is the structure
of Primary Energy Supply. Generally speaking, this includes solid, liquid,
and gas fuels; hydra- and geothermic energy; wind energy,; solar energy;
and last but not least nuclear energy.
As a result of the combination of large domestic resources of coal and
economic problems resulting from difficulties in the import of liquid and
gas fuels in Poland, 80% of all energy production is generated from hard
coal and brown coal, causing serious environmental consequences. The
situation in the United States is more advantageous, as solid-fuel energy
amounts to no more then 26% of GEC (Table 1~. Therefore, the use of
hard and brown coal for energy generation purposes in Poland may be
taken as the starting point for discussion of ways to minimize the ill effects
of energy use on the environment.
Investigations carried out in Poland concern the following technologies:
· coal gasification;
· coal cleaning;
· fluidized bed combustion; and
· flue gas cleaning.
Research indicates that coal gasification technology will not be applied
on a large scale in Poland. The significant technological achievements which
have already been implemented on an industrial scale are obtained in solid
fuel cleaning, including elimination of pyrite. However, since the large
quantities of waste produced by coal cleaning still possess thermic energy,
the storage of waste products causes problems because of the danger of
spontaneous combustion.
Fluidized bed technology for solid fuel combustion has been developed
on a semi-technical scale. Here, the combustion of waste products brings
OCR for page 379
EN~7RONMENTAL AN 4NAGEMENT CASE STUDIES
TABLE 2 National emission of SO2 and NO, 1985.
x
Unit Poland USA West Germany
Total SO2 emission 106 tlyear 4,300 20,800 2,400
Total NOX emission 106 t/year 1,50() 19,400 2,900
SO2 emission kg 116 83 40
per inhabitant
NOX emission kg 40 80 49
per inhabitant
SO2 emissionIlun2 kg 14 2.2 9.6
NO emissionIlan2 kg 4.8 2.0 11.7
x
379
about a significant energetic gain. The Polish government program outlining
national coal usage calls for solid fuel cleaning and the utilization of waste
products in fluidized bed combustion.
In relation to flue gas cleaning technology, it should be noted that
Poland has fully implemented all existing techniques of dust separation.
Progress in constuction of new flue gas desulfurization installations currently
appears highly unsatisfactory. There are only a few pilot installations of a
semi-technical scale in Poland. Generally speaking, while the techniques of
coal cleaning and dust separation from flue gas are beginning to be widely
implemented in Poland, installation of fluidized bed combustion and gas
desulfurization processes lags even further behind. Ibday, the prevailing
opinion in Poland is that technological progress in this field can only be
achieved through international cooperation.
A complex approach to these technical problems makes possible the
development of introductory economic analyses for the purpose of estimat-
ing the costs of investments and exploitation of a given technology. Next,
the optimum variants can be established. For each variant we can determine
the direct erects of energy production technologies on the environment
through dust emissions, gas emissions, heat emissions, and radiation.
Able 2 illustrates gas emissions in Poland, West Germany, and the
United States. The major risks in Poland are caused by SO2 emissions,
in a relative sense. NOR emissions do not have as serious an- effect on
the environment when compared to the situation in developed western
countries (e.g., West Germany).
AIR POLLUTION MODELING
There is often no basis to measure directly the environmental im-
pacts of an emission source; therefore, dispersion modeling techniques are
used. The range of problems related to air pollution modeling are being
investigated through numerous research projects in Poland. Developing air
pollution models calls for data as presented in Figure 2: meteorological and
physiographic data, as well as data concerning emissions and depositions.
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380
ECOLOGICAL RISKS
With collected and processed data, mathematical models of atmospheric
dispersion can be designed. These models are then computerized and
verified. In Poland, a whole "family" of air pollution models have been
designed for various time and space scales, among which there are urban,
regional, and country models, as well as models for long-range transport.
Let us first turn to the long-range transport models. Due to its
central geographic location in Europe and the fact that the majority of
regional winds blow westward, Poland is in a particularly disadvantageous
position. Figure 3 shows mean sulfur depositions in Europe. Dispersion
calculations have been made within the cooperative program for monitoring
and evaluation of the long-range transmission of air pollutants in Europe.
The highest streams of sulfur compounds in Europe are found in Poland,
East Germany, and Czechoslovakia. When considering the source and
balance of these pollutants, it appears that 52% of dry and wet deposition
of sulfur compounds in Poland may be attributed to foreign sources, and
only 48% comes from domestic sources. Figure 4 shows the calculated
amounts of sulfur compounds imported to and exported from Poland.
A conclusion derived directly from these data is that close international
cooperation in the field of air pollution limitation is called for if we are to
solve the problem.
Special attention in Poland is being given to verification of models,
particularly those on urban and regional scales. ~ design a mathemati-
cal model Is relatively easy; it should precisely describe the present state
and confirm measurement data. A variety of research projects have been
carried out in this field in Poland, beginning with a monitoring project con-
ducted in Krakow in February 1984. Emissions from 283 surface and point
sources located in various parts of the city were monitored simultaneously,
according to meteorological parameters measured at 15 weather stations
in the area. In addition, air pollution concentrations were measured at 24
points in Krakow. Since the calculations concerned only SO2 levels, it was
necessary to determine contributions to emission levels from non-Krakow
sources.
The data obtained formed the basis for verification of several disper-
sion models. The one-level Gaussian model did not yield a satisfactory
description of the actual dispersion pattern. The highest compatibility of
results was found in a three-level numerical model. Further information of
the experimental results can be found in Juda (1986~.
In this type of experiment, which concerns concentrations of air pol-
lutants like SO2, it is difficult to determine precisely the pollution inflow
from sources located outside the target area. For this reason a technique
involving pollutant tracers and plume dyes in model verification was em-
ployed.
Figure 5 presents the experimental design of this technique. A tracer
OCR for page 381
ENVIRO~UL MANAGEMENT CASE STUDIES
o ~
o 1000 /~ 1
{2~
_- _/
381
FIGURE 3 Mean annual dry and wet deposition of sulfur compounds in MG-s/m2
(EMEP/MSCW Report 1/85~.
(SF6) and plume dye is inserted into chimneys 100 m, 160 m, and 300 m
in height. In the vicinity of the experimental installation, meteorological
measurements are carried out in the following ranges:
m; and
· ground level up to 18 m with the use of a mast;
· atmospheric soundings with the use of captive balloon up to 500
· higher stratum examination with the use of a free balloon.
Depending on wind directions within a radius of several kilometers,
air samples are collected using specially designed injectors. The samples
are then chromatographed in order to determine SF6 concentrations. The
plume is examined with three theodolites associated with a film camera so
that all parameters of dispersion can be defined. In some cases, additional
measurements are carried out with the use of a plane. Initial results indicate
that dispersion model parameters established for stack bights to 120 m can
not be extrapolated to greater stack heights (e.g., 300 m).
OCR for page 382
382
DK
5~4
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DE
\
FR
AT 10
IT
24
YU
ECOLOGICAL RISKS
NO
~ 1
Ot ' ,
SE
~~ (
Fl
o
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337
F = 1492 103 t/a
_' Q = 2150 103 t/a ~ SU
HU
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33
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FIGURE 4 Calculated sulfur budget "imported" to and "exported" from Poland. Unit=103
tons of sulfur per annum (EME:/MSCW Report 1/88~.
Models already verified provide information necessary for mapping of
air pollution in various scales in urban areas, regions, or the whole country.
The existing maps illustrate only sulfur pollutants, since the data on sulfur
emission sources are available in Poland. The mans Oh. (1~v`~.1nu`~.~1 fir'. MA
.
In comprehensive planning as well as in the development of environmental
protection programs.
Currently, a program of this kind is being prepared which aims at
the limitation of SO2 emissions in Poland through 2010. For research
purposes, maps of air pollution distribution are made for regions where
OCR for page 383
E~7RONMENTAL MANAGEMENT CASE STUDIES
-
/ Plane
sit, 111 1
I /10
)
1
~ ~~/r Samples
Theodolite
/
FIGURE 5 Expenmental air pollution model venfication.
383
, ~ ~
Free Balloon
Captive
Balloon
_: 1 ~ KM
Air Samples
ecological monitoring is done, in order to determine correlations between
the pollutant concentrations and ecological effects.
Although a large amount of modeling of air pollution dispersion has
been carried out both in Poland and elswhere in the world, among the
issues that require further research are the following:
· physical and chemical reactions of pollutants in the atmosphere;
· pollutant wash-out by atmospheric fallout;
pollutant transportation inside the clouds; and
ground absorption.
Description of pollution dispersion in the atmosphere as well as de-
scription of ground deposition of pollutants provide the basis for further
description of circulation of pollutants in other elements of the environ-
ment, i.e., water, soil, and plants.
COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS
The next step in the system analysis process is to examine the effects
of pollution on human health, materials, water systems, vegetation, and
aesthetics. Although a great deal of research has been carried out in
OCR for page 384
384
ECOLOGICAL RISKS
Poland and elsewhere, we are still not able to define absolute relationships
between environmental pollution and measurable economic losses due to
the multiplicity of interdependencies which occur in all ecosystems.
Nevertheless, some attempts have been made to measure losses caused
by particular air pollutants. Information is available mainly for SO2 and its
secondary effects, such as acid rain. In Europe, for example, estimates of
damages resulting from the emission of one ton of SO2 range from $1,000
to $3,000. Thus, with more precise knowledge of environmental damage,
it is possible to undertake a cost/benefit analysis. Briefly, the choice of
optimum variants for rational management of the environment boils down
to direct comparisons of global costs of environmental protection on a
scale of a region (CE) and loss costs ąCL) caused by exploitation of natural
resources as well as environmental pollution.
The optimum solution, which takes a form
Drain = f(CE, CL)
means, in this case, the minimum sum of environmental protection costs
and losses.
Because of the "uncertainty factor," attempts at loss estimation have
been made in Poland to develop new methods of solving the problem.
A notion of area valorization has been introduced which evaluates area
sensivity to environmental pollution since, to date, investigations have
been limited to air pollution. Considering parameters of the area such as
agricultural uses, forestation, water systems, population density, and fixed
capital invested, an area value index can be derived in a 0-1 or 1-10 scale.
The higher the area value, the higher the potential environmental damage
caused by a definite concentration of pollutants, a concept which can be
presented in the mathematical formula:
TDmin = / / lKi(x,y)Ci(X,y,t~dQdt
T O Q
where D equals nondimension loss function. Summing the products of
area value indices (~) and pollution concentration indices (Ci) in time and
space, the goal is the minimum value of the dependent variable D.
Omitting damage estimates in rational value, the procedure allows for
optimum comprehensive planning and helps identify those emission sources
in which investments will generate the greatest gain in pollution reductions.
This is the theoretical basis of optimum cost estimates for environmental
protection.
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ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT CASE STUDIES
CONCLUSION ANI) RECOMMENDATIONS
385
The above review of research on environmental protection may be
summarized in the following propositions:
· Issues of environmental protection should be viewed in a complex
manner through a systems analysis approach that encompasses all inter-
dependencies among social needs, economic activity, and environmental
conditions.
· For technical reasons, subsystems should serge as the scale of
analysis. One of the most significant subsystems is energy supply and its
environmental effects.
· A description of an analyzed subsystem should enable both simula-
tion and optimalization models to be developed for a given developmental
variant.
In the "energy environment" subsystem, there still exist areas requiring
further research. They are:
the improvement and verification of air pollution dispersion models;
· the construction and improvement of models of pollutant circula-
tion in biogeochemical cycles; and
· the estimation of damage to environment caused by emission of
specific pollutants, a process which should consider all existing (particularly
additive) interdependencies of various pollutants.
REFERENCE
Juda, K 1986. Modeling of air pollution in the Krakow area. Atmosphenc Environment,
Vol. 20, No. 12, pp. 2449-2458.
OCR for page 386
Representative terms from entire chapter:
gross energy
