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Energy Use and Environmental Consequences in Poland JAN H. JUDA KAROI, BUDZINSKI Institute of Environmental Engineering Warsaw Technical University The idealistic goal of most social systems and their economic activities is to ensure optimum living conditions and human well-being both now and in the foreseeable future. It is becoming increasingly apparent that this goal will not be achieved unless greater attention is given to the proper management and protection of the environment. This concept is gaining support in all countries regardless of their differing political ideologies and economic systems. Unfortunately, difficulties arise with the practical implementation of this worthwhile principle. The prevailing general opinion, in Poland as well as internationally, is that the best means of analyzing problems of environmental protection is through use of system analysis, an approach which takes into account economic and sociological as well as ecological factors. These relationships and interdependencies are illustrated in Figure 1. The analysis of the interdependencies occuring in large and complex systems should begin with the selection of optimum consumption models. However, the model of consumption which has developed spontaneously in the United States and is now considered as a target model for many developing countries does not seem to be the optimum solution, particularly from the point of view of rational management of the environment. Without going into further philosophical considerations, it should be pointed out that rational change in a society's consumption model is one of the most significant factors affecting environmental quality over the long term. It is impossible, even using advanced computer modeling, to analyze the large system presented in Figure 1 to include all the consumption patterns and resulting interrelationships between social and economic ac- tivity and the environment. For this reason, it is necessary to divide the large system into subsystems which comprise selected segments of social 374

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ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT CASE STUDIES my, Consumption L Activities (Goods and Services) 375 Economic Activities ~ ~~\~ Strategy Economic Administrative \ Political i' _ Environmental Media i= ~ Environment _ Residuals (Waste) I N~'~\ ~1 FIGURE 1 Schematic system analysis approach. demands. In Poland, large research programs have been devoted to the study of the subsystem of supply and its effect on the environment. The- following discussion presents some initial results and conclusions of this program. ENERGY SUPPLY From the viewpoint of system analysis, Poland should first of all con- sider possibilities of reducing gross energy consumption (Figure 2~. It is regrettable that in Poland energy consumption per unit of national income according to estimates by the World Bank is nearly twice as high as that in the western developed countries. It is desirable to investigate all possible cause-and-effect relationships. Planned changes in the Polish economic structure and the gradual implementation of low and non-waste technolo- gies should lead to a decrease of energy and raw material input into the Gross National Product. Ibble 1 presents current data on gross energy consumption (GEC) in tons of coal equivalent in Poland, the United States, and the world, in total, per capita, and per km2. GEC per capita in Poland is 0.65 times lower then it is in the United States. Keeping in mind that environmental risk depends on GEC per area unit of the country, it appears that in Poland the potential risk is over three times as great as it is in the United States.

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378 ECOLOGICAL RISKS TABLE 1 Gross energy consumption in 1985, in millions of tons coal equivalent (tee). Unit Poland USA World Gross Energy Conswnpiion (GEC) 106 lee 178 1,742 9,400 GEC per inhabitant lo6 lee 4.81 7.38 1.97 GEC per km2 1~ t" 570 1~ --- Enerey Mix (percent of GEC) Solid fuels % 79 26 Liquid fuels % 13 39 Gaseous fuels % 7 23 Hydro and geo % 1 5 Nuclear % 0 8 Another significant issue concerns types of energy use. The United States uses 19% of the total world production of energy a very high pro- portion. Although GEC per capita or per km2 offers no direct information on environmental problems, what is of importance here is the structure of Primary Energy Supply. Generally speaking, this includes solid, liquid, and gas fuels; hydra- and geothermic energy; wind energy,; solar energy; and last but not least nuclear energy. As a result of the combination of large domestic resources of coal and economic problems resulting from difficulties in the import of liquid and gas fuels in Poland, 80% of all energy production is generated from hard coal and brown coal, causing serious environmental consequences. The situation in the United States is more advantageous, as solid-fuel energy amounts to no more then 26% of GEC (Table 1~. Therefore, the use of hard and brown coal for energy generation purposes in Poland may be taken as the starting point for discussion of ways to minimize the ill effects of energy use on the environment. Investigations carried out in Poland concern the following technologies: coal gasification; coal cleaning; fluidized bed combustion; and flue gas cleaning. Research indicates that coal gasification technology will not be applied on a large scale in Poland. The significant technological achievements which have already been implemented on an industrial scale are obtained in solid fuel cleaning, including elimination of pyrite. However, since the large quantities of waste produced by coal cleaning still possess thermic energy, the storage of waste products causes problems because of the danger of spontaneous combustion. Fluidized bed technology for solid fuel combustion has been developed on a semi-technical scale. Here, the combustion of waste products brings

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EN~7RONMENTAL AN 4NAGEMENT CASE STUDIES TABLE 2 National emission of SO2 and NO, 1985. x Unit Poland USA West Germany Total SO2 emission 106 tlyear 4,300 20,800 2,400 Total NOX emission 106 t/year 1,50() 19,400 2,900 SO2 emission kg 116 83 40 per inhabitant NOX emission kg 40 80 49 per inhabitant SO2 emissionIlun2 kg 14 2.2 9.6 NO emissionIlan2 kg 4.8 2.0 11.7 x 379 about a significant energetic gain. The Polish government program outlining national coal usage calls for solid fuel cleaning and the utilization of waste products in fluidized bed combustion. In relation to flue gas cleaning technology, it should be noted that Poland has fully implemented all existing techniques of dust separation. Progress in constuction of new flue gas desulfurization installations currently appears highly unsatisfactory. There are only a few pilot installations of a semi-technical scale in Poland. Generally speaking, while the techniques of coal cleaning and dust separation from flue gas are beginning to be widely implemented in Poland, installation of fluidized bed combustion and gas desulfurization processes lags even further behind. Ibday, the prevailing opinion in Poland is that technological progress in this field can only be achieved through international cooperation. A complex approach to these technical problems makes possible the development of introductory economic analyses for the purpose of estimat- ing the costs of investments and exploitation of a given technology. Next, the optimum variants can be established. For each variant we can determine the direct erects of energy production technologies on the environment through dust emissions, gas emissions, heat emissions, and radiation. Able 2 illustrates gas emissions in Poland, West Germany, and the United States. The major risks in Poland are caused by SO2 emissions, in a relative sense. NOR emissions do not have as serious an- effect on the environment when compared to the situation in developed western countries (e.g., West Germany). AIR POLLUTION MODELING There is often no basis to measure directly the environmental im- pacts of an emission source; therefore, dispersion modeling techniques are used. The range of problems related to air pollution modeling are being investigated through numerous research projects in Poland. Developing air pollution models calls for data as presented in Figure 2: meteorological and physiographic data, as well as data concerning emissions and depositions.

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380 ECOLOGICAL RISKS With collected and processed data, mathematical models of atmospheric dispersion can be designed. These models are then computerized and verified. In Poland, a whole "family" of air pollution models have been designed for various time and space scales, among which there are urban, regional, and country models, as well as models for long-range transport. Let us first turn to the long-range transport models. Due to its central geographic location in Europe and the fact that the majority of regional winds blow westward, Poland is in a particularly disadvantageous position. Figure 3 shows mean sulfur depositions in Europe. Dispersion calculations have been made within the cooperative program for monitoring and evaluation of the long-range transmission of air pollutants in Europe. The highest streams of sulfur compounds in Europe are found in Poland, East Germany, and Czechoslovakia. When considering the source and balance of these pollutants, it appears that 52% of dry and wet deposition of sulfur compounds in Poland may be attributed to foreign sources, and only 48% comes from domestic sources. Figure 4 shows the calculated amounts of sulfur compounds imported to and exported from Poland. A conclusion derived directly from these data is that close international cooperation in the field of air pollution limitation is called for if we are to solve the problem. Special attention in Poland is being given to verification of models, particularly those on urban and regional scales. ~ design a mathemati- cal model Is relatively easy; it should precisely describe the present state and confirm measurement data. A variety of research projects have been carried out in this field in Poland, beginning with a monitoring project con- ducted in Krakow in February 1984. Emissions from 283 surface and point sources located in various parts of the city were monitored simultaneously, according to meteorological parameters measured at 15 weather stations in the area. In addition, air pollution concentrations were measured at 24 points in Krakow. Since the calculations concerned only SO2 levels, it was necessary to determine contributions to emission levels from non-Krakow sources. The data obtained formed the basis for verification of several disper- sion models. The one-level Gaussian model did not yield a satisfactory description of the actual dispersion pattern. The highest compatibility of results was found in a three-level numerical model. Further information of the experimental results can be found in Juda (1986~. In this type of experiment, which concerns concentrations of air pol- lutants like SO2, it is difficult to determine precisely the pollution inflow from sources located outside the target area. For this reason a technique involving pollutant tracers and plume dyes in model verification was em- ployed. Figure 5 presents the experimental design of this technique. A tracer

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ENVIRO~UL MANAGEMENT CASE STUDIES o ~ o 1000 /~ 1 {2~ _- _/ 381 FIGURE 3 Mean annual dry and wet deposition of sulfur compounds in MG-s/m2 (EMEP/MSCW Report 1/85~. (SF6) and plume dye is inserted into chimneys 100 m, 160 m, and 300 m in height. In the vicinity of the experimental installation, meteorological measurements are carried out in the following ranges: m; and ground level up to 18 m with the use of a mast; atmospheric soundings with the use of captive balloon up to 500 higher stratum examination with the use of a free balloon. Depending on wind directions within a radius of several kilometers, air samples are collected using specially designed injectors. The samples are then chromatographed in order to determine SF6 concentrations. The plume is examined with three theodolites associated with a film camera so that all parameters of dispersion can be defined. In some cases, additional measurements are carried out with the use of a plane. Initial results indicate that dispersion model parameters established for stack bights to 120 m can not be extrapolated to greater stack heights (e.g., 300 m).

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382 DK 5~4 I. DD I 310 } - DE \ FR AT 10 IT 24 YU ECOLOGICAL RISKS NO ~ 1 Ot ' , SE ~~ ( Fl o \ 0: 337 F = 1492 103 t/a _' Q = 2150 103 t/a ~ SU HU sulphur / CS 33 BG TR RO FIGURE 4 Calculated sulfur budget "imported" to and "exported" from Poland. Unit=103 tons of sulfur per annum (EME:/MSCW Report 1/88~. Models already verified provide information necessary for mapping of air pollution in various scales in urban areas, regions, or the whole country. The existing maps illustrate only sulfur pollutants, since the data on sulfur emission sources are available in Poland. The mans Oh. (1~v`~.1nu`~.~1 fir'. MA . In comprehensive planning as well as in the development of environmental protection programs. Currently, a program of this kind is being prepared which aims at the limitation of SO2 emissions in Poland through 2010. For research purposes, maps of air pollution distribution are made for regions where

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E~7RONMENTAL MANAGEMENT CASE STUDIES - / Plane sit, 111 1 I /10 ) 1 ~ ~~/r Samples Theodolite / FIGURE 5 Expenmental air pollution model venfication. 383 , ~ ~ Free Balloon Captive Balloon _: 1 ~ KM Air Samples ecological monitoring is done, in order to determine correlations between the pollutant concentrations and ecological effects. Although a large amount of modeling of air pollution dispersion has been carried out both in Poland and elswhere in the world, among the issues that require further research are the following: physical and chemical reactions of pollutants in the atmosphere; pollutant wash-out by atmospheric fallout; pollutant transportation inside the clouds; and ground absorption. Description of pollution dispersion in the atmosphere as well as de- scription of ground deposition of pollutants provide the basis for further description of circulation of pollutants in other elements of the environ- ment, i.e., water, soil, and plants. COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS The next step in the system analysis process is to examine the effects of pollution on human health, materials, water systems, vegetation, and aesthetics. Although a great deal of research has been carried out in

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384 ECOLOGICAL RISKS Poland and elsewhere, we are still not able to define absolute relationships between environmental pollution and measurable economic losses due to the multiplicity of interdependencies which occur in all ecosystems. Nevertheless, some attempts have been made to measure losses caused by particular air pollutants. Information is available mainly for SO2 and its secondary effects, such as acid rain. In Europe, for example, estimates of damages resulting from the emission of one ton of SO2 range from $1,000 to $3,000. Thus, with more precise knowledge of environmental damage, it is possible to undertake a cost/benefit analysis. Briefly, the choice of optimum variants for rational management of the environment boils down to direct comparisons of global costs of environmental protection on a scale of a region (CE) and loss costs CL) caused by exploitation of natural resources as well as environmental pollution. The optimum solution, which takes a form Drain = f(CE, CL) means, in this case, the minimum sum of environmental protection costs and losses. Because of the "uncertainty factor," attempts at loss estimation have been made in Poland to develop new methods of solving the problem. A notion of area valorization has been introduced which evaluates area sensivity to environmental pollution since, to date, investigations have been limited to air pollution. Considering parameters of the area such as agricultural uses, forestation, water systems, population density, and fixed capital invested, an area value index can be derived in a 0-1 or 1-10 scale. The higher the area value, the higher the potential environmental damage caused by a definite concentration of pollutants, a concept which can be presented in the mathematical formula: TDmin = / / lKi(x,y)Ci(X,y,t~dQdt T O Q where D equals nondimension loss function. Summing the products of area value indices (~) and pollution concentration indices (Ci) in time and space, the goal is the minimum value of the dependent variable D. Omitting damage estimates in rational value, the procedure allows for optimum comprehensive planning and helps identify those emission sources in which investments will generate the greatest gain in pollution reductions. This is the theoretical basis of optimum cost estimates for environmental protection.

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ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT CASE STUDIES CONCLUSION ANI) RECOMMENDATIONS 385 The above review of research on environmental protection may be summarized in the following propositions: Issues of environmental protection should be viewed in a complex manner through a systems analysis approach that encompasses all inter- dependencies among social needs, economic activity, and environmental conditions. For technical reasons, subsystems should serge as the scale of analysis. One of the most significant subsystems is energy supply and its environmental effects. A description of an analyzed subsystem should enable both simula- tion and optimalization models to be developed for a given developmental variant. In the "energy environment" subsystem, there still exist areas requiring further research. They are: the improvement and verification of air pollution dispersion models; the construction and improvement of models of pollutant circula- tion in biogeochemical cycles; and the estimation of damage to environment caused by emission of specific pollutants, a process which should consider all existing (particularly additive) interdependencies of various pollutants. REFERENCE Juda, K 1986. Modeling of air pollution in the Krakow area. Atmosphenc Environment, Vol. 20, No. 12, pp. 2449-2458.

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