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The Relationship Between Strategies of Social Development and Environmental Protection MICHAL J. MAREK Institute of Public Administration and Management Warsaw ANDRZE3 T. KASSENBERG Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences Different concepts of social development will be described in this chapter to demonstrate how they influence approaches to problems of the natural environment. These concepts are described here as existing or potential dominant paradigms, i.e., basic perceptions, thoughts, and actions related to a given view of reality (Herman, 1975; Linstone et al., 1977; Wyka, 1987~. In such considerations, alternative thinking proves useful (Suchodolski, 1981; Picht, 1981~. Within this context, different aspects of environmental protection in Poland will also be discussed. Such a discussion might allow us: to see the present form of development and environmental protec- tion as relative, not as absolute; to understand not only how to improve the existing solutions but also to determine possible ways of identifying new approaches; to show more clearly the relationships between development and concepts of environmental protection; to enhance chances for planned evolutionary development instead of a series of cnses; to accustom ourselves to thinking about the future and to encourage working for its sake; to discharge part of our obligations to future generations following the principle of due care (the French concept of obligation de moyens) and not of results (~obligation de resultat) (Domanski, 1972; Gr~ybowski, 1981~; to integrate partial solutions currently dispersed in various branches of science; to identify barriers to possible adaptations of future societies, the nature of these barriers, and the difficulties associated with them; 41

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42 ECOLOG CAL RISKS to limit resistance even towards radical change, caused not neces- sarily by the negation of reasonability of the solution but by the uncertainty about the character of the costs associated with change; to create pilot solutions on a regional or local scale which may facilitate the development of spatial organization on a wider scale (i.e., a country or a group of countries); to introduce new, important modifications to solutions which al- ready exist. The ideas presented in this chapter pertain to various forms of progress. However, within the framework of this brief account we did not attempt: to outline alternative forms of progress, i.e., economic, technologi- cal, organizational, and scientific; 1981~; to apply the holistic approach (Boulding, 1970; Sahal, 1977; Brown, to relate our discussion to the reality of those countries which greatly influence the ecological status of the world (e.g., Brazil, the United States, Canada, and the USSR); to present analysis concerning the feasibility of particular concepts and the scenarios leading to them; to present a vision of a world disaster as equally possible as a vision of progress. The analysis which follows merely signals some issues of future development and environmental protection. THE EXISITING PARADIGM Authors dealing with the idea of social progress indicate that the time in which it serves as a dominant paradigm is short. Dawson (1938) emphasizes that each period in the history of civilization holds characteristic ideas as its particular property. These ideas were considered not merely as popular ideas of the time but as eternal truths and thus understandable, regardless of the method of reasoning applied. In the 18th century, the idea of progress started to dominate the social awareness in many countries of Europe (Mounter, 1948~. In spite of a widespread following, the idea of progress remains very equivocal; thus, efforts of researchers have concentrated on identifying common elements in diverse ideas of the meaning of progress. Most of all, it is anthropocentric oriented exclusively towards humans, with its broadly understood goal the prosperity of Homo sapiens. Moreover, as pointed out by J. Dalvaille (1910), progress encompasses the concept of improvement (i.e., what was in the past is poorer than achievements of the future); the concept of

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ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT CONCEPTS 43 novels (i.e., all that is old will be replaced by something different and better); and the concept of permanent growth and accumulation (i.e., the constant gathering of material property). This view of economic growth has been very popular in modern societies since the 18th century. Studies by S. Kuznets (1971) clearly indicate that since several countries entered the stage of modern development, GNP has increased by an average of 3% per annum while the gross product per capita has increased by an average of 2% per annum. This means a five-fold increase in gross product per capita and at least a similar increment in GNP during one century. Such data support the classification of the last one and one-half to two centuries as a new economic era. Economic progress is closely linked with developments In science, technology, and organization. Some scientists maintain that if there had been no development in technology and if progress had been based on multiplying existing solutions, the most developed countries of the world probably would have achieved only about 20% of the rate of growth observed so far (Beranek, 1978~. For several decades, human activity was based on the assumption of an unlimited supply of natural resources (Krader, 1970~. There has, of course, always been an understanding in economics and in everyday life that resources are scarce in the short term and that allocation or rationing of those resources is often necessary. The difference lies in the perception of the longterm. Historically, the world was viewed as a "bundle of hay," i.e., once its resources were used, they could not be replenished (Jonston, 1960~. Ultimately, the world's resources would diminish and progressive poverty would ensue. Approximately 50 years ago, the argument was developed that resources could expand with greater knowledge and technology and thus the world would become a "field of grass" that would be able to continuously replenish itself (Zimmerman, 1951; Barnet and Morse, 1963~. More recently, beginning in the late 1960s and popularized by the Club of Rome, the opinion that there might actually be limits to the world's natural resources, even in the long term, has come full circle (Meadows et al., 1972; Russell, 1988~. The brief, general description presented above ignores the distinct dif- ferences between the specific patterns of development existing in particular countries and regions of the world (Kerr et al., 1964~. These specifics are crucial to better understanding the relationship between social development and environmental protection. For example, this chapter will focus on the situation existing in Poland, where the domestic economy has proven to be very inefficient. This has been attributed to inherent characteristics within the Polish system, as is widely recognized now. Through the mid- 1980s, a supreme role was granted to state-owned property. The creation

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44 ECOLOGICAL RISKS TABLE 1 Companson of environmental situation in Poland and six COMECON countries (excluding the USSR) in the mid-1980s (expressed as percent of Europe). Issues Poland COMECON (6) Population 7 23 Terntory 6 20 GNP 3 12 Consumption 8 27 Emission of SO2 (a) 11 38 Emission of solid particulate (b) 26 53 (a) The smallest European countries and Romania were excluded because of the lack of reliable data. Therefore, emissions in Poland are slightly lower than reported here. (b) Fifteen countries were included: Austria, Czechoslovakia, Finland, Prance, Greece, Spain, Holland, Hungary, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, FRG, Switzerland, and Sweden. Therefore, emissions in Poland are lower by several percent than reported here. SOURCE: T. Zylicz (in press) TABLE 2 Comparative data on anti-pollution investments expressed as percent of GNP. Year Poland Holland USA FRG Bulgaria Hungary 1975 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 - 1976 0.4 - 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 1977 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 1978 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 - 1979 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.8 1980 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.6 1981 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 1982 0.2 0.2 0.2 - 0.6 0.5 1983 0.4 -- 0.2 -- 0.6 SOURCE: A. Budzikowski, 1988. of an enterprise, its size, and specialization were the result of administra- tive decisions by the central government or a particular minister. In this system, bankruptcy could not exist. The country's economy was organi- zationally dominated by state-owned enterprises (particularly monopolistic enterprises); the state also maintained a monopoly in foreign trade, re- sulting in the isolation of the domestic market from competitive foreign products. Poland also had a centrally planned economy, with the economic goals of the state-owned enterprises established by the central planner. The central planner also specified ways in which goals should be achieved (e.g., determining prices, wages, salaries, etc.~. The primary concern of

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ENY7RONMENTAL MANAGEMENT CONCEPTS 45 managers of state-owned enterprises was not profit but to achieve the goals established in the government's economic plan. Under these conditions, no managerial system (including environmental) could be very effective. The resultant inefficiency of the Polish economic system has meant: A long-standing central government policy to develop heavy industry. Currently, 41.1% of all industrial capital is invested in industry (Statistical, 1986~. Simultaneously, outdated technologies dominate, and coal is used as virtually the only source of energy. This results in a very high level of pollution, as is illustrated in Table 1. An insufficient amount of financial resources allocated for environ- mental protection. The share in GNP of all anti-pollution investments is equal or even higher in Poland to that of developed countries (bible 2~. However, the efficacy of the investment process (measured by comparison of ejects to outlays) is at least two times lower than that in France or West Germany. In addition, the anti-pollution equipment that is installed is often outdated and of poor quality. The negative impacts of this situation on the environment are presented in other chapters of this boot An ever-increasing use of raw materials and energy in all sectors of the economy. ~ measure the consumption of raw materials, Sitnicki (1986) compared the net output of material production in Poland to its material costs. The results produced are the following: 1.3% in 1960, 1.34% in 1978, and 1.41 in 1981%. During the period 1960-1978, consumption of raw materials increased by 3.1% and from 1978-1981 it increased even more, by 5.2%. Other experts have estimated the losses of raw materials in all phases of the industrial process, from mining minerals to manufacturing final products. According to Ney (1983), these losses are substantial, equaling 38% for copper, 50% for zinc, 55% for lead, 46% for sulfur, 72% for pit~oal, and 78% for brown coal. These data suggest that the utilization of raw materials is extensive in Poland. In the mid-197Qs, the consumption of energy decreased in Poland, but in the period 1979-1982 it increased by 80 million tons of coal equivalent when compared with 1975. This amount of energy is equal to 100 million tons of pit-coal, which is worth 4.5-5 billion U.S. dollars (Albinowski, 1988~. According to most estimates, present energy consumption in Poland is 2.5-3 times higher per unit of GNP than in developed countries of the European Economic Community (EEC) (Szpilewicz, 1977; Chandler, 1987~. Poland's inability to transform itself into an important supplier of industrial products to the world market in spite of the existence within its territory of rich supplies of raw materials has shaped Poland's export model to emphasize the export of raw materials (e.g., copper, pit- and brown coal, silver, sulfur, and timber) as well as intermediate products. This puts

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46 ECOLOGICAL RISKS pressure on the natural environment and limits Poland's economic growth due to a deficit of energy, difficult geological conditions for mining, and the deterioration of forests which are exploited too intensively (Molenda, 1974~. The extensive use of land. The average harvest in Poland of four crops (~ye, wheat, barley, and oats) is equal to 0.3 metric tons per hectare; in West Germany it is equal to 0.5 metric tons, even though the agro- ecological conditions are comparable in both countries. This means that Poland is still unable to carry out its own conservation reserve program for crop production on idle cropland which is highly credible or located adjacent to streams, lakes, or estuaries, as is done elsewhere (Thiede, 1975; Wolcott et aL, 1988~. However, in the late 1980s, the Polish economy started to undergo dramatic and rapid changes. In the newly-created system: . the central planners decide only general trends of development, and the market is recognized as an important regulator of economic life; enterprises are steered by economic tools (e.g., taxes, prices, and discount rates) to a much greater extent than before; . foreign investment is possible; profit is used as a criterion for enterprise evaluation; bankruptcy of enterprises is possible; the first attempts to create a capital market have been observed; favorable conditions to create all kinds of small firms exist, thereby granting more economic freedom to individuals; . government. regional and local authorities are less dependent on the central Under these new reforms, each domestic managerial system can be much more effective than before. Despite these promising changes, how- ever, the severity of the environmental crisis in Poland, compounded by the weakness of the economy, makes rapid progress in the field of environ- mental protection impossible. It is apparent that the deterioration of the natural environment in Poland is a limit to growth, but it is also clear that a lack of growth is a limit to environmental protection. It is very difficult to stop such a vicious circle. ~day, developed countries are able to effectively handle more envi- ronmental problems than can Poland. Still, substantial changes have been initiated due to the understanding that we live in a world of scarce re- sources, requiring a search for new approaches to social development and the environment.

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ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT CONCEPTS A NEW ANTHROPOCENTRIC PARADIGM: HUMAN HEALTH AND QUALITY OF LIFE 47 One of the attempts to abandon (or rather modify) the dominant paradigm can be found in the concept of the "Social Indicator Movement" which has developed since the late 1960s. Researchers affiliated with this movement maintain that the indices of national income and GNP are not sufficient for analysis of human well-being. They suggest the introduction of systems of measures termed "the level and quality of life" (Rutkowski, 1984~. In such considerations, scientists turn their attention to three components of social reality: the ability to satisfy social needs, the degree to which these needs are satisfied (in cases where this can be determined in an objective way), and the assessment by society of satisfying needs (Rutkowski, 1987~. Problems of quality of life in Poland will be presented with a focus on mortality issues, since they are both crucial and well documented. The rate of mortality in Poland is much higher than the rate in developed countries, particularly for the male population (Figure 1~. In 1984, the average death rate for men was 1,069 cases per 100,000 people, exceeding the death rate for women by 17%. Substantial differences also exist among particular regions of Poland (Velrose, 1984~. In this case the highest level of mortality surpasses the lowest by 32.6% (Szarski, 1985~. Fifty percent of all deaths in Poland are caused by respiratory and heart disease, with an additional 25% caused by cancer, accidents, and intoxication (Dzienio, 1984~. Current concepts of quality of life are based on contemporary views of family, health, and public safety. Future concepts will probably be con- cerned with the same elements but understood in a different way. As pointed out by Rodenstein (1986), in ancient times the science of dietetics was developed to treat health issues in a highly integrated manner addressing social and biological aspects simultaneously. This strongly echoes the contemporary philosophy of the unity of the world (macro- cosm) and man (microcosm). Later, in the development of European culture, this philosophy ceased to exist, resulting~in the consideration of human health on a much smaller scale, e.g., in terms of a patient/doctor relationship. This attitude persists today, allowing effective control of infectious diseases but not chronic ones. The prevention of chronic disease is regarded by specialists as requiring increased control of the individual over his own health. Thus, modern medicine tries to influence human social behavior as well as the social and ecological environment. The environment will be considered healthy if it helps people to develop their various abilities to improve quality of their lives. This new approach demands a new philosophy that would combine the social and purely medical approaches to health into

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48 180tt, 17~7, 1 60';; 150~; 140ri, 1 30'/, 130~/, 11~/, 10~, 90~/, ECOLOGICAL RISKS \\ \ \ + o \\ \ of\ \ o \ + W o / on 'A ~ Con + " 35 - 39 years,/\ 40 - 44 years ,< o - ~ 0 50 - 54 years / ', -~( I ~ " ,' O ,' / I +/ it- it/ / TV / )~ 45 - 49 years / ../ ~ \ \ ~ ~ O ~ \ .00 o '/ ~ /" ' O ~ TO ~ / / - o 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 i980 1985 FIGURE 1 Mortality rates of males (age 35-59) in Poland as compared to the Federal Republic of Germany. Data on mortality rates in the Federal Republic of Germany were not available to the authors, therefore 1980 mortality rates were used for both 1980 and 1985 as a base for comparison with Poland. one entity. Therefore, Rodenstein expects the ultimate development of a holistic theory similar to ancient dietetics. The health of an individual usually depends strongly on his economic position. This holds true not only in poor countries but in wealthy ones, as well. It has been estimated, for example, that Canadian males from the highest income group could expect an additional 14 years of life free of activity restrictions when compared to males from the lowest income group. For the wealthiest females, the corresponding advantage amounted to an additional 8 years of life (Wilkins, 1983~. Similar relationships were found in statistics regarding the frequency of lung and breast cancer (Davessa and Diamonds, 1983; Kelsey and Hildreth, 1983~. Therefore, it may be presumed that in the future there will be a continued drive towards elevating

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ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT CONCEPTS 49 the general standard of living, while solutions ensuring each individual good health regardless of his socioeconomic status will also be developed. Recently, three approaches toward the realization of this goal have emerged. The first pertains to the change in human behavior in the areas of food consumption, use of technical facilities, and ways of spending free time. The second includes community activities like setting up self- help groups and enhancing cooperation within neighborhoods to facilitate common actions to further promote health. The third involves creating solutions in the areas of urban planning, agriculture, and public safetr. This trend had a great effect upon the new understanding of environmental protection and management. In 1975, European urban localities were inhabited by 67~and in North America by 77~of their respective total populations. These figures are expected to rise in the year 2025 to 88% and 93%, respectively (Hancock and Duhl, 1986; UN Population Division, 1982~. These statistics alone are reason enough to assign fundamental importance to urban solutions in any consideration of qualifier of life. The previous conception of health as a purely medical issue entails its consideration far removed from many aspects of urban life. The emergence of new concepts, however, has led to changes. The traditional idea of life quality issues subordinated to economic development have also been questioned. A brief characterization of the new shape of a city, although still not completed, conveys a sense of future. According to Hancock and Duhl (1986~: A healthy city is one that is continually creating and improving those physical and social environments and expanding those community resources which enable people to mutually support each other in functions of life and in developing their maximum potential. Within the context of this definition of a city's health, the following param- eters merit consideration: quality of the physical environment; stability and sustainability of an ecosystem; strength of a mutually supportive community; degree of public participation in decision making; meeting public need; access to a wide variety of experiences and resources; a diverse, vital, and innovative city economy; an optimum level of appropriate public health care; and high health standards. These considerations show how important to this new concept of health is the issue of urban populations living in a stable natural environment. However, it is difficult to determine future solutions of this kind, as there

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50 ECOLOGICAL RISKS are currently only assumptions based on the most recent theoretical and practical achievements. For example, during the early 1980s a building was erected in Vienna according to the principle of alternative accommodation (die Alternanve- wohnungen) with the support of the municipal authorities. This design was created not by an architect but by a painter who is well known under the pseudonym Hundertwasser. This building, in addition to walls, rooms, and roofs of surprising shapes, contains playrooms for children and meeting rooms for adults. Thus, facilities provide for further integration of inhab- itants, which is very important in the new concept of health. Grass grows on the steep parts of roofs, while flat roofs have summer gardens with trees and shrubs which can also be found in niches in walls. In addition, a winter garden is located inside the building (Otulak, personal communication). The vegetation mentioned here not only improves conditions for recreation but may also contribute to an improvement in urban climate after introduc- ing such designs on a wider scale (Ryc~ywolska, 1987y, as well as facilitate the stabilization and integration of intra~ity systems of green areas (e.g., parks). The main element of such an environmental stabilization in urban areas would be provided by a few large protected areas of natural park, which would probably be situated on the edges of cities and be of high biological, aesthetic, and recreational value. THE ECOLOGICAL PARADIGM The discussion thus far has provided a brief outline of some features of alternative development and the: spatial solutions resulting from it. However, some other very important features were omitted, e.g., a new view of agriculture and the relationship between current activities and the welfare of future generations. Nevertheless, the above considerations help to develop a potentially new concept of preservation and management of the environment. In the alternative development presented above, only anthropocen- tric solutions are considered, i.e., those made solely with an intention to satisfy human needs. A different approach emerges based on vitacentric ideas. Both in Europe and the United States, a universal interpretation of holy writings states that human nature dominates over any other form of biological life (White, 1967; Zdziechowski, 1928; Nowosielski, 1982~. The realization of vitacentric ideas calls for harmonizing human needs with those of nature rather than denying them. These ideas are supplemented by a new, equally important one: preserving full diversity of wildlife and living systems in large carefully selected areas (Woodwell, 1978; World, 1978; World, 1982~. Moreover, the continuity of ecological systems and

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ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT CONCEPTS 51 the adequacy of abiotic conditions should also be ensured (Andrzejewski, 1980~. It is also important to recognize the spatial conflicts that appear be- tween ecological systems and remaining elements of spatial arrangements similar to those occurring among natural, nondegraded systems (Wood- well, 1985~. This approach can be envisaged on a pan-European scale, encompassing many countries (e.g., EEC and COMECON), or for indi- vidual countries. For most European countries, the latter suggestion is the least attractive as activities carried out in a neighboring country may disturb domestic ecosystems. The system of environmental protection and management outlined here should maintain the following on a large scale: ability to produce biomass; ecological balance, which is manifested by ecological stability; pools of genetic and ecological information; a spatial arrangement of ecosystems which would inhibit excessive mobility of chemical elements, waters with dissolved chemicals, and rocks and humus in both air and water (i.e., erosion); and complete matter cycling within possibly small area (Andrzejewski, 1984~. In spatial terms, the above requirements may be satisfied by a type of ecological structure in a given area (Kassenberg and Marek, 1986~. One of the theoretical proposals of this kind is called an "Ecological System of Preserved Areas," which would involve defining national, ecologically diversified, adjoining areas including various ecological systems (Gacka- Grzesikiewicz, 1977~. Such a system would include: basic elements (e.g., national parks) where biological life has the best chance of survival; ecological areas that can link them together and serve as a buffer against anthropogenic pressure; and ecological condors (at least one kilometer wide) to connect the elements of the system where links of the aforementioned type are not feasible. Such a system could ensure proper spatial conditions for survival of non- human forms of life by allowing them unrestricted penetration contacts, exchange, and complement of genetic pools. Before it is possible to define the shape of such a system, many parameters have to be assessed for the whole country, such as the degree of preserved abilities to regenerate the ecological systems (i.e., the level and rate for regeneration of biomass, structures, and processes); and the degree of mobility of chemical elements, waters, rock mass, and humus. 1b date, it has not been possible to cover all of Poland by this kind of study.

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52 TABLE 3 Comparisons between various concepts of environmental protection. ECOLOGICAL RISKS CRITERIA CONSERVATION ECONOMIC- SOCIO- ECOLOGICAL CONCEPT TECHNICAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONCEPT CONCEPT CONCEPT I. Man's attitude towards non-human forms of life and inanimate nature ,,_ PERCEPTION as an object (primary) as an as an as an OF NATURE or subject-object object object subject- (primary-secondary) object KEYWORDS nature formations; natural quality of life; Ecological OF THINKING specific ecosystems, resources; interests of System of species, specimens; economic future Protected selected formsofnon- effectiveness generations Areas (ESPA) living nature (e.g., and its land forms and elements geological phenomena FOCUS OF rarity of occurrence usefulness of satisfying present ecological balance INTEREST of biological forms; natural needs for life, as a basis for special significance resources health, security, proper conditions for society (such as to satisfy aesthetic values for survival cultural, aesthetic, economic needs and providing for of human and gene banks,etc.) development of non-human future generations forms of life LIMITS OF inviolability of defined by defined by the inviolability PERMISSIBLE functioning unity of existing needs of future of ecological CHANGES IN nature in chosen economic needs end present balance within CONDITION areas; preserving generations ESPA OF NATURE single forms of nature Also, many issues involved in creating an Ecological System of Preserved Areas have not yet been solved by science. Thus, such a system may be presented only theoretically at this time. In conclusion, the principal differences between alternative anthro- pocentric and vitacentric concepts of development presented above should be emphasized. According to the former, all nonhuman forms of life can be protected if they are regarded as useful to humans, while in the latter concept these life forms are to be protected regardless of human needs. The anthropocentric concept does not assume creating proper conditions for survival of nonhuman forms of life, while the vitacentric concept makes it an imperative of development. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION ANI) MANAGEMENT So far, we have distinguished two possible ways of thinking about nature: anthropocentric and vitacentric. Within the former approach, the

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ENYIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT CONCEPTS (TABLE 3, Continued) 53 CRITERIA CONSERVATION CONCERT ECONOMIC- SOCIO- ECOLOGICAL TECHNICAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONCEPI CONCEPT CONCEPT II. Satisfaction of human needs vs. development of natural environment PRIORITIES needslimited to satisfaction of satisfaction of satisfaction of IN sightseeing, research needs does not needs does not needs does not SATISFYING related to gene bank destroy economic destroy social destroy ecological NEEDS balance balance balance of ESPA COSIS OF - covering costs bearings costs bearing all SATISFYING of present of present social present social NEEDS social develop- developmentand development ment with non- some costs of costs and costs human fonns of future develop of future human life and future ment and non-human generations of development humans GAINING limited use of complete partial utilize- maintaining balance NATURAL natural amenities utilization of tion of existing of ESPA along RESOURCES existing natural natural potential with utilization AND USING potential for for social devel- of remaining NATURAL economic end opment; remaining pert of nature AMENITIES social potential is for social development reserved for development the future RECULTI- protection of natural recultivation of restoration of restoration of VATION OF objects from natural environ- ecological balance balance in ESPA NATURAL disturbances ment when when required by when there are ENVIRON- satisfaction of life quality de- technical MENT economic needs mends or interests possibilities is threatened of future generations following concepts are now working or are now being introduced: conser- vation (created by Humboldt in the 19th century), economic-technological (a part of the existing paradigm), or socio-economic (a part of the new an- thropocentric paradigm). The latter approach (vitacentric) gives a basis for the development of a new ecological anti social concept within the ecolog- ical paradigm, which also borrows from the conservationists' ideas. Thus, conservation actually appears in both trends and represents the necessary complement to any of the remaining concepts. 1b know more about all of these concepts, we tried to identify both similarities and differences among them using a unified set of criteria. When creating these criteria we assumed that they have to consider two issues: attitudes of humans towards other forms of life and the abiotic environment, and ways of satisfying social needs. The description of all these concepts using these two groups of criteria is given in Table 3 (Kassenberg and

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54 ECOLOGICAL RISKS Marek, 1989). As can be seen from this table, a separate principle has been formulated for each concept and criterion. The first arrow (pointing right) indicates the sequence of conceptual development, with newer ideas incorporating some existing principles. The arrow is drawn as a broken line to emphasize that it indicates only a perceived, but not quite e~licit tendency. There is also an arrow pointing left, since future trends might also influence current ones. Different forms of social development and environmental protection demand different interpretations of acceptable human pressure upon na- ture. Idday, many newly invented substances are introduced into the market. This is, of course, indispensable to stimulate economic develop- ment and to better satisfy social needs. Also, environmental protection and resource conservation often benefit from new synthetic materials which, among other advantages, allow many enterprises to earn greater profits than their competitors. In Poland the producers' market prevails over that of consumers', which means that there is no need to invent new synthetics to gain high profit. In spite of this fact, many new chemicals are introduced to the Polish market each year, because firms are often compelled to use new compounds due to shortages in supplies necessary for production. As a result, for instance, substances used for domestic dishwashing could legally be made of more than 335 chemicals (Kiss, 1986~. Use of new substances may bring advantages to society, but it also creates many hazards for humans and the environment. Today two strategies are generally applied in the field of social safety: to not test or regulate chemicals at all, or to test chemicals and regulate only if the test reveals serious adverse effects (Weinstein, 1979~. In the past, the first laissez faire approach dominated due to lack of proper knowledge. Currently, this strategy persisits in those countries where governments do not have sufficient resources to organize proper systems for societal protection, or where the domestic industry effectively blocks all governmental activities in this area. In all developed (including socialist) countries, the second strategy is obligatory, but its implementation cannot do much to overcome many difficulties. First of all, new man-made substances are very numerous. In the 1970s, specialists estimated that the number of chemicals produced in the world had reached nearly half a mil- lion. Moreover, thousands of new compounds have been added each year according to UN estimates (Witosynski, 1977~. Many of these chemicals can be mixed; and the mixtures that are created can be more danger- ous than their components due to a synergistic effect. The abundance of these substances and their compositions limits application of the test- ing/regulation strategy, since studies of even one compound are expensive,

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ENVIRONMENTAL ~4NAGEMENT CONCEPTS 55 time-consuming, demand sophisticated equipment and well-trained special- ists, and still produce inconclusive results (Russell and Gruber, 1987; Oser, 1977~. There is also evidence that tested chemicals, though not dangerous for animals exposed to them, still could cause adverse effects to humans. Moreover, even in the case of proven carcinogenicity of a synthetic, its use is often continued, e.g., asbestos and vinyl chloride in Poland, and chlordane in the United States (U.S. News, 1987~. Some experts maintain that existing safety strategies are very inefficient, and suggest establishing new ones based on the following principles: Act toward maximal risk elimination, conveying a new concept of safety as a situation without risk Safety has been defined as "a situation with negligible risk which is experienced by the population in the same way" (Eggink 1980~. The rationale for accepting a new approach to risk could be as follows: Since it is difficult to determine the "safe" level of exposure to any suspect chemical with any degree of confidence, the concept of "acceptable risk" and "risk-benefit analysis" are emerging in counterpoint to the issue of "risk Wee [life]. . ." (Schottenfeld and Haas, 19783. Implement a new strategy of regulation of chemicals without testing, to complement current testing/regulation strategies (Weinstein, 1979~. This new strategy could: minimize the number of newly invented chemicals in production and commercial use; activities; minimize the number of chemicals used in social and economic give priority to naturally occuring, as opposed to synthetic, chemi- cals (Commoner, 1971~: The third law of ecology suggests that the artificial introduction of an organic compound that does not occur in nature, but is man-made and is nevertheless active in a living system, is very likely to be harmful (Dubos, 1973~; give priority to the production of solid substances over liquids and liquids over gases; and minimize the spatial scope and time of their presence in the envi- ronment (Marek, 1987; Kassenberg and Marek, 1989~. Such actions are based on the implicit assumption that "it was a mistake to concede to chemicals the constitutional right to be judged innocent until proven guilty" (Evans, 1987~. This alternative strategy could be effective if new forms of social pres- sure upon industry and government were exerted. Industry would positively respond to the mass economic demand of the market for `'new safety." The government would effectively act if, for instance, mass migrations of people from the territories of low ecological standards occurred. Applications of

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56 ECOLOGICAL RISKS the new strategy should not limit fulfilling social needs, but rather help to find new agreement between humans and nature. The approach could encourage new technological innovations which would make it possible, for example, to wash dishes or clothes in mechanical devices that do not require the use of any chemicals. In fact, several pieces of such new equipment already have been invented (Eljari, 1985; Gornig, 1986; Majer, 1985~. This alternative approach does not necessarily deny the positive role of many new substances for greater economic development and better fulfillment of social needs. It tries rather to reduce significantly the number of chemicals now in use without prior testing. Of course, this alternative approach would be applicable only if many important questions could be satisfactorily answered. For instance: What are the new criteria to exclude use of a given synthetic? Who should pay for damages caused to the producer? What socially adverse effects could result? CONCLUSION Several possible long-term trends concerning development and envi- ronmental protection have been outlined in this chapter. It would appear that for next several decades Poland will be almost entirely preoccupied with strengthening its economy by lowering natural limits to growth and reversing high mortality rates. For this reason, healthy cities or an ecologi- cal grid in Poland will probably remain of low social priority, and therefore will be discussed within a time frame of many years rather than in the immediate future. In developed countries, however, social priorities could be quite different. Large agricultural areas are now abandoned, so that creation of an ecological grid could be a current issue in these countries. Strong economies could also afford creation of healthy cities. In Poland, of course, scientific priorities will be shaped in accordance with those of the national economy. This does not necessarily mean that studies of the relationship between social development and natural environ- ment, which are not for immediate application, will be neglected. Analyses of this kind can help Polish society to take into account the problems of tomorrow while resolving the problems of today. Also, Poland could be involved in international environmental programs based on European priorities different from its own. Finally, specific interests of concerned specialists will also stimulate other new studies in this field. Acknowledgement Through discussion, comments, and translation, a number of peo- ple contributed to the final version of this chapter. These include two Americans Mary R. English and Milton Russell and four PolesZofia

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