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Assessment of the U.S. Outer Contir~entalSleif Environments! St~ies Program I. Physical Oceanography Physical Oceanography Pane! Committee to Review the Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS WASHINGTON, D.C. 1990

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of ~ _ . . . ~ nglneermg. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project was provided by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Contract No. 14-12-001-30342. Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 89-63847 International Standard Book Number 0-309-04181-3 Cover photo: Grant Heilman/Grant Heilman Photography Printed in the United States of America

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PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY PANEL Maurice Rattray, Jr., Chair, University of Washington, Seattle Glenn L. FlierI, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge Barbara Hickey, University of Washington, Seattle Donn S. Gorsline, University of Southern California, Los Angeles Joseph Niebauer, University of Alaska, Fairbanks Malcolm L. Spaulding, University of Rhode Island, Kingston Consultant Larry Sanford, University of Maryland, Cambridge Resigned August 29, 1988. ~ ~

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COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES PROGRAM John W. Farrington, Chair, University of Massachusetts, Boston Vera Alexander, University of Alaska, Fairbanks Garth D. Brewer, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut Judith McDowell Capuzzo, Woods Hole Oceanographic :Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts Charles P. Eddy, Los Angeles, California Edward D. Goldberg, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Lea lolla, California Charles Bruce Koons, Exxon Production Research Company (retired), Houston, Texas Guy Martin, Perkins Cole, Washington, D.C. Arthur Maxwell, University of Texas, Austin 'lames ]. O'Brien, Florida State University, Tallahassee Maurice Rattray, Jr., University of Washington, Seattle Howard A. Slack, Port Ludlow, Washington .Iohn ,l. Walsh, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg Project Staff David Policansky, Project Director Sylvia Tognetti, Research Associate Erik Hobble, Research Assistant Alison Kamat, Research Assistant Susan Maurizi, Editor Lee Paulson, Editor Bernidean Williams, Information Specialist Holly Wells, Senior Project Assistant 1V

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BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Gilbert S. Omenn, Chair, University of Washington, Seattle Frederick R. Anderson, Washington School of Law, American University, Washington, D.C. John C. Bailar, McGill University School of Medicine, Montreal, Quebec Lawrence W. Barnthouse, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee David Bates, University of British Columbia, Vancouver Joanna Burger, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey Yoram Cohen, University of California, I-os Angeles John L. Emmerson, Eli Lilly & Company, Greenfield, Indiana Robert L. Harness, Monsanto Agricultural Company, St. Louis Paul I. Lioy, UMDN]-Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Piscataway, New Jersey Jane Lubchenco, Oregon State University, CorvaDis Donald Mattison, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, Little Rock Duncan T. Patten, Arizona State University, Tempe Nathaniel Reed, Hobe Sound, Florida William H. Rodgers, University of Washington, Seattle F. Sherwood Rowland, University of California, Irvine Liane B. Russell, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee Milton Russell, University of Tennessee, Knoxville John H. Seinfeld, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena I. Glenn Sipes, University of Arizona, Tucson Bruce M. Alberts (Ex OffcioJ, University of California, San Francisco Donald Hornig (Ex Officio), Harvard University, Boston Paul Risser (Ex OffcioJ, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque Staff James J. Reisa, Director David J. Policansky, Program Director for Applied Ecology and Natural Resources Robert Smythe, Program Director for Exposure Assessment and Risk Reduction Richard D. Thomas, Program Director for Human Toxicology ant! Risk Assessment Lee R. Paulson, Manager, Toxicology Information Center * Devra L. Davis was director until September 1988.

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COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES M. Gordon Wolman, Chair, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland Robert C. Beardsley, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts B. Clark Burchfiel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge Ralph J. Cicerone, University of California, Irvine Peter S. Eagleson, Massachusetts institute of Technology, Cambridge Lawrence W. Funkhouser, Chevron Corporation (retired), MenIo Park, California Gene E. Likens, New York Botanical Gardens, Midbrook Scott M. Matheson, Parsons, BehIe and Latimer, Salt Lake City, Utah Jack E. Oliver, Corned University, Ithaca, New York Philip A. Palmer, Ed. du Pont de Nemours & Company, Newark, Delaware Frank L. Parker, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee Duncan T. Patten, Arizona State University, Tempe Denis I. Prager, MacArthur Foundation, Chicago, Illinois Harris Lo. Smarr, University of {llinois, Urbana-Champaign Crispin Tickell, Uniter] Kingdom Mission to the United Nations, New York Karl K. Turekian, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut Irvin L. White, New York State Energy Resource and Development Authority, Albany James H. Zumberge, University of Southern California, Los Angeles Staff Stephen Rattien, Executive Director Stephen D. Parker, Associate Executive Director Janice E. Greene, Assistant Executive Director Jeanette A. Spoon, Financial Officer Gaylene ]. Dumouchel, Administrative Assistant This study originally was undertaken under the auspices of the Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources. V1

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Preface The review leading to this report was initiated in May 1986 by the National Research Council (NRC) at the request of the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the U.S. Department of the Interior. Under the auspices of the NRC Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, the Committee to Review the Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program was formed to carry out the overall assignment. Three panels were established, one of which, the Physical Oceanography Panel, investigated the physical oceanographic aspects of the Environmental Studies Program (ESP), the subject of this report, which is the first of three in a series. It has been 12 years since a previous review by the National Research Council (OCS Oil and Gas: An Assessment of the Department of the Interior Environmental Studies Program, National Academy of Sciences, 1978) recommended a change from the previous program of supporting descriptive baseline studies to one of carrvin~ out studies that focus on the prediction , %, , , at,, ~ ~ . ~ _ ~ _ .. . . . . ~ . .. . . . Ot Impacts trom och operations and provide ~nt~ormat~on more directly applicable to leasing and management decisions. To date, the ESP has expended nearly $500 million over its 17-year history for environmental studies applicable to lease sales covering most of the outer continental shelf. It appeared to MMS in 1986 that the time was ripe to assess the status of the present program and to explore the needs for future studies. Thus, MMS requested an evaluation of the adequacy and applicability of ESP studies, a review of the general state of knowledge in the appropriate disciplines, and recommendations for future studies. The Physical Oceanography Panel based its report on several sources, including presentations from staff members of the Environmental Studies and Environmental Modeling Branches of MMS; briefings by other, independent scientists familiar with the work carried out in the different regions under the support of the Environmental Studies Branch; results of a workshop on numerical modeling held by the panel; and a review of the relevant scientific literature and documentation of MMS's planning and implementation processes leading to various lease sales. Reviewing the ESP and making recommendations for future studies required the committee and its panels to consider certain interactions between the ESP and other parts of MMS, especially the Branch of Environmental Modeling (BEM) and the producers of environmental impact statements (EISs) for lease sales, the four regional offices of the Branch of Environmental Evaluation (BEE). It was necessary to consider these interactions in order to evaluate the "applicability" of ESP studies to MMS needs. Thus, some parts of this report include particular reference to BEM and to EISs. Midway through its deliberations, the committee was asked to undertake two additional tasks. First, MMS requested a review of the adequacy of scientific and technical information pertaining to environmental concerns for outer continental shelf (OCS) decisions on the Georges Bank area in the north Atlantic (lease sale 96~. Second, President Bush's Task Force on OCS oil and gas leasing requested a review of the adequacy of available scientific and technical information pertaining to environmental concerns for lease sales 116, Part 2 (southwestern ~ V11

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. . . V111 PREFACE Florida); 91 (northern California); and 95 (southern California). The report to President Bush's Task Force has been completed (NRC, 1989a), and the Georges Bank report is near completion. The additional studies depended for their success on the work done on the original study, but their focus is not identical. The original charge was broader in that it covered the entire U.S. OCS and narrower in that it concerned only MMS's ESP; that is why this report does not directly evaluate the adequacy of information for making leasing and other OCS decisions, as the reports on California and Florida and on the North Atlantic do. The panel benefited greatly from the workshop on numerical modeling, in which J. Herring, J. Galt, J. Leendertse, S. K. Liu, M. Reed, and A. Wallcraft discussed their use of numerical modeling to obtain oil-spill-trajectory information. Their presentations were the initial input for the workshop recommendations formulated by all workshop participants, who also included K. Brink, Z. Kowalik, M. Luther, A. Okubo, R. Pritchard, A. Robinson, R. Smith, D.P. Wang, and the panel. Those recommendations helped clarify the panel's deliberations and the formulation of its own recommendations. f The panel also learned much from presentations describing the physical oceanography of the different geographic regions and the MMS contributions thereto by the following experts: L. Atkinson, B. Butman, L. Pietrafesa, T. Royer, R. Smith, and T. Sturges. R. Sternberg summarized benthic processes for the panel. The help and cooperation of the MMS staff, particularly D. Aurand, R. Cohen, B. Drucker, R. LaBelle, and T. Paluszkiewicz, were crucial. The panel's work was carefully guided and supported by the National Research Council staff directed by D. Policansky. L. Sanford, who did a superior job of assembling the drafts prepared by individual panel members, improved the report substantially. The reviewers' many helpful comments led to an appreciably better final report. To all of the above the panel members express their appreciation. Maurice Rattray, Jr. Chairman, Physical Oceanography Panel

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Present Study, 1 Acquisition and Use of Physical Oceanographic Information by the ESP, 2 Conclusions, 3 Recommendations, 5 INTRODUCTION Outer Continental Shelf Activities, 7 MMS's Environmental Studies Program, 10 The Present Study, 16 Planning and Procurement of Environmental Studies, 17 Why MMS Needs Physical Oceanographic Information, 19 Acquisition and Use of Physical Oceanographic Information, 19 What Information is Needed, 22 STATE-OF-THE-ART OVERVIEW: PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHIC PROCESSES, FEATURES, AND METHODS OF POTENTIAL IMPORTANCE TO THE ESP Introduction, 25 Transport, Stirring, and Mixing Processes, 29 Numerical Models, 44 Sea Ice, 49 Sediment Transport, 51 REGIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY AND EVALUATION OF THE REGIONAL STUDIES PROGRAM AND WASHINGTON OF-~-lCE GENERIC PROGAMS Introduction, 53 The Alaska Region, 54 The Pacific Region, 66 The Gulf of Mexico Region, 76 The Atlantic Region, 86 The Washington Office, 94 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Introduction, 95 The Role of Physical Oceanography in the ESP, 95 Conclusions, 96 Recommendations, 102 REFERENCES 1X 7 25 95 107

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x APPENDICES A B C CONTENTS 127 Glossary of Physical Oceanography Terms, 129 Workshop on Modeling in Physical Oceanography, 133 Physical Oceanography Study Contracts Awarded by MMS, 137