West-East policy approach must be developed if export controls are to remain an effective policy instrument under the changed national security conditions.

Given the new political realities, export controls will be viable only if they enable the United States and other nations that share common objectives to (a) remain vigilant and prepared during the period of economic and political transformation now under way within the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe; (b) facilitate (rather than obstruct) the pursuit of important political and economic objectives, such as further democratization and the development of market economies in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe; and (c) address flexibly new types and sources of national security challenges, such as those derived from growing proliferation threats or the threat of terrorism, as they emerge.

Because of the enormous uncertainties inherent in the current situation, a new and clearly more sophisticated approach to export control policy is required, one that could be adapted and modified to a range of future conditions. Among its principal features would be the following interactive goals:

  • Maintaining a qualitative edge in U.S. military systems as a deterrent against threats of aggression, including those posed by Soviet and Soviet-allied forces.

  • Preventing or retarding the proliferation of items that could directly and immediately enhance the conventional or strategic capabilities of countries that may now or in the future pose a threat to the physical security or vital interests of the United States and other nations that share common objectives.

  • Preventing or retarding the proliferation of items for use in acts of terrorism or other political violence against the interests of the United States and other nations that share common objectives.

  • Preventing or retarding the proliferation of items that may be destabilizing to global or regional political structures and power alignments.

  • Avoiding negative impacts on economic competitiveness and the overall viability of the free market economies that participate in global trade.

  • Promoting further political democratization and economic development in the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and elsewhere.

  • Encouraging conversion (or closure) of military industrial facilities in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe to the manufacture of products for civilian consumption.

  • Maintaining harmony with U.S. allies and cooperating countries in the administration of export control measures.

  • Improving the structure and administration of export controls to increase efficiency and lessen adverse effects on the private sector.

THE IMPACT OF EXPORT CONTROLS ON U.S. INDUSTRY

The precise measurement of the quantitative effect of export controls on the U.S. economy is an elusive goal. Unlike other factors that contribute to



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