WORKING PAPERS

Astronomy and Astrophysics Panel Reports

ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS SURVEY COMMITTEE

BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY

COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1991



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Working Papers: Astronomy and Astrophysics Panel Reports WORKING PAPERS Astronomy and Astrophysics Panel Reports ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS SURVEY COMMITTEE BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1991

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Working Papers: Astronomy and Astrophysics Panel Reports NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This project was supported by the Department of Energy under Grant No. DE-FG05-89ER40421, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Science Foundation under Grant No. AST-8901685, the Naval Research Laboratory under Contract No. N00173-90-M-9744, and the Smithsonian Institution under Purchase Order No. SF0022430000. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 90-63608 International Standard Book Number 0-309-04383-2 Cover: Near-infrared image of the Milky Way. A new view of the Milky Way Galaxy obtained on April 17, 1990, by the Diffuse Infrared Background Explorer (DIRBE) on NASA’s Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) satellite. Courtesy of the COBE Science Working Group and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. Additional copies of this document are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 S242 Printed in the United States of America

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Working Papers: Astronomy and Astrophysics Panel Reports ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS SURVEY COMMITTEE JOHN N. BAHCALL, Institute for Advanced Study, Chair CHARLES A. BEICHMAN, Institute for Advanced Study, Executive Secretary CLAUDE CANIZARES, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JAMES CRONIN, University of Chicago DAVID HEESCHEN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory JAMES HOUCK, Cornell University DONALD HUNTEN, University of Arizona CHRISTOPHER F. McKEE, University of California, Berkeley ROBERT NOYES, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics JEREMIAH P. OSTRIKER, Princeton University Observatory WILLIAM PRESS, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics WALLACE L.W. SARGENT, California Institute of Technology BLAIR SAVAGE, University of Wisconsin ROBERT W. WILSON, AT&T Bell Laboratories SIDNEY WOLFF, National Optical Astronomy Observatories National Research Council Staff Robert L. Riemer, Senior Program Officer Susan M. Wyatt, Administrative Associate Board on Physics and Astronomy William Spindel, Principal Staff Officer (1989) Sandra Nolte, Administrative Assistant (1989-1990) Phoebe Wechsler, Administrative Assistant (1989-1990) Institute for Advanced Study

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Working Papers: Astronomy and Astrophysics Panel Reports BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY FRANK D. DRAKE, University of California, Santa Cruz, Chair LLOYD ARMSTRONG, Johns Hopkins University W. DAVID ARNETT, University of Arizona HOWARD C. BERG, Harvard University RICHARD S. BERRY, University of Chicago WILLIAM F. BRINKMAN, AT&T Bell Laboratories GEORGE W. CLARK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology HAROLD P. FURTH, Princeton University MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University CHARLES F. KENNEL, University of California, Los Angeles WALTER KOHN, University of California, San Diego STEVEN E. KOONIN, California Institute of Technology LEON LEDERMAN, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory VERA RUBIN, Carnegie Institution of Washington DAVID N. SCHRAMM, University of Chicago DANIEL TSUI, Princeton University STEVEN WEINBERG, University of Texas Donald C. Shapero, Staff Director Robert L. Riemer, Associate Staff Director Ronald D. Taylor, Program Officer Susan M. Wyatt, Administrative Associate Mary Riendeau, Senior Secretary Anne K. Simmons, Secretary

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Working Papers: Astronomy and Astrophysics Panel Reports COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS NORMAN HACKERMAN, Robert A. Welch Foundation, Chairman PETER J. BICKEL, University of California, Berkeley GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University HERBERT D. DOAN, The Dow Chemical Company (retired) DEAN E. EASTMAN, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center MARYE ANNE FOX, University of Texas PHILLIP A. GRIFFITHS, Duke University NEAL F. LANE, Rice University ROBERT W. LUCKY, AT&T Bell Laboratories CHRISTOPHER F. McKEE, University of California, Berkeley RICHARD S. NICHOLSON, American Association for the Advancement of Science JEREMIAH P. OSTRIKER, Princeton University Observatory ALAN SCHRIESHEIM, Argonne National Laboratory ROY F. SCHWITTERS, Superconducting Super Collider Laboratory KENNETH G. WILSON, Ohio State University NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director

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Working Papers: Astronomy and Astrophysics Panel Reports Preface This volume contains the working papers of the panels appointed by the Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee. These papers were advisory to the survey committee and represent the opinions of the members of each panel in the context of their individual charges. They have not been edited by the survey committee, nor have they been edited or reviewed by the National Research Council. The committee's full survey report is contained in a separately published document, The Decade of Discovery in Astronomy and Astrophysics (National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1991), issued simultaneously with this volume of the panels' working papers. Selected by the committee, the chairs of the panels in turn helped the committee to select a broad and representative group of experts to advise in 15 areas of concern. The chairs were responsible, together with their panel members, for obtaining the views of a wide cross-section of the astronomy and astrophysics community and for preparing a paper on their discussions and findings. A member of the survey committee served as a vice-chair of each panel. In some cases, the panel chairs selected a core group to assume primary responsibility for writing the panel's paper; members of such core groups are designated by an asterisk in the list of panel members that precedes each paper. The panel chairs presented their papers in oral and written form at the June and July 1990 meetings of the survey committee and were invited to participate with the committee in the initial attempts to generate a cohesive set of overall recommendations. The views of the participants were modified by the discussions that took place between the different advocates and experts. The committee based its final decisions and recommendations in significant part on the contents of the panel papers and on the discussions with the panel chairs. Ten panels had charges that reflected specific scientific areas, eight of them based on wavelength region and two (those of the Planetary Astronomy Panel and Solar Astronomy Panel) on particular subdisciplines with special needs. The committee asked these ten science panels to identify the most important scientific goals in their respective areas, to prioritize the new initiatives needed to achieve these goals, to recommend proposals for technology development, to consider the possibilities for international collaboration, and to discuss any policy issues relevant to their charge. The Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee served as an interdisciplinary panel to guarantee that scientific questions that did not fit conveniently into this organizational structure were handled appropriately on an ad hoc basis. Four other panels were appointed to explore computing and data processing, policy opportunities, the benefits of astronomy to the nation, and the status of the profession. The working papers written on the first three topics were used by the committee as a basis for developing the chapters with corresponding subject matter (Chapters 5, 7, and 8, respectively) in the survey report. Data from the working paper titled 'Status of the Profession' were used in preparing various chapters and Appendix B of the survey report and by other panels in preparing their papers. The Science Opportunities Panel, the fifteenth panel appointed by the committee, prepared a paper that the committee believed should be expanded and published separately as a popular book accessible to as large an audience as possible. An abbreviated and adapted version of this panel's paper appears as Chapter 2 of the survey report. Members of the panels consulted widely with their colleagues to solicit advice and to inform other members of the astronomical community of the main issues facing the committee. Each panel held an

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Working Papers: Astronomy and Astrophysics Panel Reports open meeting at a session of the American Astronomical Society, and most of the panels held sessions at other professional gatherings, as well as at astronomical centers at different places in the United States. Each panel discussed with the relevant federal agency personnel the problems and issues of its particular area. These interactions with agency personnel provided valuable background to the discussions, although the panels were careful to preserve the independence and confidentiality of the National Research Council deliberative process. The Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee believes that the material in the panel papers is of general interest and may be of special use to students and research scientists in astronomy and astrophysics, as well as to university and governmental administrators. John Bahcall Chair Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee

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Working Papers: Astronomy and Astrophysics Panel Reports Contents     RADIO ASTRONOMY   1     INFRARED ASTRONOMY   25     OPTICAL/IR FROM GROUND   47     UV-OPTICAL FROM SPACE   75     INTERFEROMETRY   107     HIGH ENERGY FROM SPACE   129     PARTICLE ASTROPHYSICS   153     THEORY AND LABORATORY ASTROPHYSICS   177     SOLAR ASTRONOMY   199     PLANETARY ASTRONOMY   235     COMPUTING AND DATA PROCESSING   257     POLICY OPPORTUNITIES   283     BENEFITS TO THE NATION FROM ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS   301     STATUS OF THE PROFESSION   321     SCIENCE OPPORTUNITIES   341

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Working Papers: Astronomy and Astrophysics Panel Reports Panel Reports

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Working Papers: Astronomy and Astrophysics Panel Reports RADIO ASTRONOMY PANEL KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory, Chair DAVID HEESCHEN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory, Vice-Chair DONALD C. BACKER, University of California, Berkeley MARSHALL H. COHEN,* California Institute of Technology MICHAEL DAVIS, National Astronomy and Ionosphere Center IMKE DE PATER, University of California, Berkeley DAVID DE YOUNG, National Optical Astronomy Observatories GEORGE A. DULK,* University of Colorado, Boulder J.R. FISHER, National Radio Astronomy Observatory W. MILLER GOSS, National Radio Astronomy Observatory MARTHA P. HAYNES,* Cornell University CARL E. HEILES, University of California, Berkeley WILLIAM M. IRVINE, University of Massachusetts, Amherst KENNETH J. JOHNSTON,* Naval Research Laboratory JAMES MORAN, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics STEVEN J. OSTRO, Jet Propulsion Laboratory PATRICK PALMER,* University of Chicago THOMAS G. PHILLIPS, California Institute of Technology ALAN E.E. ROGERS, Haystack Observatory NICHOLAS Z. SCOVILLE, California Institute of Technology PHILIP M. SOLOMON, State University of New York, Stony Brook JILL C. TARTER, NASA Ames Research Center JOSEPH H. TAYLOR, JR.,* Princeton University PATRICK THADDEUS,* Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics JUAN M. USON, National Radio Astronomy Observatory WILLIAM JOHN WELCH,* University of California, Berkeley ROBERT W. WILSON,* AT&T Bell Laboratories