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THE NUCLEAR ENGINEERING JOB MARKET
INTRODUCTION
This chapter summarizes U.S. demand for nuclear engineers with bachelor of
science (B.S.) or higher degrees over the next 20 years. The committee
considered three scenarios (high, best-estimate, and low) for projecting
demand. The best-estimate scenario indicates that demand for nuclear
engineers will increase substantially. In addition to nuclear engineers,
there is a large population of degreed personnel in technical fields who have
taken some academic courses in nuclear science and technology. The demand for
these individuals is expected to grow proportionally. Such growth will
clearly have an impact on academic nuclear engineering departments.
~ v - O--- in nuclear engineering.
For hi .~ori Cal r~-~ons' many of these employees hold decrees in the Physical
For the purpose of this demand analysis, nuclear engineers are defined as
individuals who, according to their employers, serve in jobs requiring the
knowledge and skills of a B.S. or hither level degree
v
r" .
J V ~ - r--~ -
sciences and other engineering fields, supplemented by some coursework in
nuclear engineering. With increasing emphasis on highly trained engineers, it
is expected that employers seeking replacements for these individuals will
endeavor to hire degreed nuclear engineers.
The committee recognizes the existence of and need for two-year nuclear
technology programs and the fact that, under some circumstances, graduates of
these programs do, in fact, relieve the workload on B.S. graduates in nuclear
engineering. However, an analysis of the two-year programs was not undertaken
as part of this study.
The committee also recognizes that, to some extent, a shortage in the
supply of nuclear engineers could be met through employment of other engineers
21
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and scientists, although they would need supplemental training. However, at
present, the need is for a higher order of engineering excellence and more
extensive application of engineering skills than in the past, and technical
expertise is increasingly being recognized as an important qualification for
high-level leadership positions in nuclear-related activities. Thus, data
based on historic standards and practices are likely to be misleading in
evaluating the extent to which recruitment from other fields can help solve a
shortage in nuclear engineering.]
The committee has been unsuccessful in obtaining assessments of the
future number of nuclear engineers expected to be employed by Department of
Energy (DOE) subcontractors (as opposed to prime contractors such as the
national laboratories) for work related to new DOE initiatives in
environmental remediation and waste management and also for defense programs.
However, most of these subcontractors have been covered elsewhere in our
census of nuclear engineers and the committee believes that the number omitted
from its analysis is sufficiently small so as not to affect the findings and
conclusions. Also not included in this study are the relatively small number
of nuclear engineers employed by organizations doing work unrelated to nuclear
energy, for example, computer manufacturers. Nor are the small number of
nuclear engineers employed by state agencies included. These omissions may
encourage underestimating the demand projections.
EMPLOYMENT HISTORY
In 1987, the most recent year for which data were available, 11,640 civilian
nuclear engineers were employed in the industry and government segments as
shown in Table 3-1. Of this total, 1,970 were associated with the Department
of Defense (DOD), 1,640 with the DOE complex, and the remaining 8,030 with the
civilian nuclear power industry (electric utilities accounting for 2,040),
distributed across the other segments indicated in Table 3-1. There were also
about 450 nuclear engineers serving in the military services. Further, the
committee estimates that about 270,000 persons work in the nuclear industry,
about one-third with degrees in the physical sciences or other engineering
fields and with some nuclear coursework. These individuals could be replaced
with individuals having similar qualifications rather than with degreed
nuclear engineers.
1 The data on civilian nuclear engineering employment used in this study are
based on employment surveys conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy by the
Labor and Policy Studies Program of the Science/Engineering Education Division,
Oak Ridge Associated Universities and the Department of Defense Manpower Data
Center. This information was validated by data provided for this study by the
Department of Energy and the industrial employers of nuclear engineers listed
in Appendix D. Data on the number of nuclear engineers employed by or serving
in the armed forces were provided by the military services.
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TABLE 3-1 Employment of Civilian Nuclear Engineers of All Degree Levels by
Primary Government and Industry Segments, 1981-1987
Change,
Segment 1981 1983 1985 1987 1981 to 1987
Fuel cycle and waste management 200
Reactor and facilities design,
engineering, and manufacturing 1,400
Reactor operations and
maintenance
340210520 320
1,4601,7001,860 460
Utility employees1,2001,7402,0302,040840
Nonutility employees1003106301,6601,560
Nuclear-related education
and research
Education & fission research1,5001,4101,4601,640140
Fusion research650600500400-250
Weapons development
and production200220310320120
Federal government employees
Department of Energy18032726526282
Nuclear Regulatory Commission820586595658-162
Department of Defense1,1801,5471,6801,970790
Other6501,380950310-340
Total employment8,0809,92010,33011,6403,560
SOURCES: Biennial surveys by Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU) for
the U.S. Department of Energy, data provided by employers to
the National Research Council Committee on Nuclear Engineering
Education, and data developed by ORAU from the surveys of scientists
and engineers sponsored by the National Science Foundation. The
DOE/ORAU survey data have been validated using additional
information and corrections obtained by the Committee
Engineering Education. Department of Defense data were
by the Defense Manpower Data Center.
on Nuclear
supplied
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24
Table 3-1 shows the distribution of civilian nuclear engineering
employment by segment from 1981 through 1987. Civilian employment in this
context encompasses the federal governmental agencies and their contractors,
and industry and utility jobs associated with civilian nuclear power. The
civilian data exclude individuals serving in uniform with the military
services. Reactor operations and maintenance account for the largest
concentration of employment, 32 percent of the total in 1987; federal
government employees, the second largest category, accounted for 25 percent.
Other employment categories include reactor manufacturers, architect-
engineers, consulting, and faculty associated with the university-based
engineering programs, in 1987, 41 offering degrees in nuclear engineering and
20 offering nuclear engineering options in other engineering degree programs.
Civilian nuclear engineering employment increased by 44 percent between
1981 and 1987. Utility employment of nuclear engineers grew by 70 percent
over the period, primarily as a result of an increase in the number of nuclear
power plants licensed to operate (from 72 to 106) and activities stemming from
the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident in 1979. The growth of
federal nuclear engineering employment largely reflected an increasing
emphasis on military preparedness between 1981 and 1987. With all but a few
of the nuclear power plants that were begun in the 1970s now in service, and
with no unfilled orders for additional plants, industry nuclear engineering
employment is expected to remain at about current levels for at least the next
~ .
rive years.
EMPLOYMENT FORECAST
A forecast of U.S. nuclear engineering employment has been made by the
committee for 5, 10, 15, and 20 years into the future based on what are
regarded as reasonable assumptions about the principal factors that will
determine those employment levels (see Appendix E). For purposes of this
analysis, civilian nuclear engineering employment is divided into three
categories: (1) DOE and its prime contractors, (2) other federal and state
government agencies and their prime contractors, and (3) the civilian nuclear
power industry. Although included in our forecast, Ph.D. holders are
discussed separately because the market for their skills is so different.
Our forecast is based on three scenarios: low growth, high growth, and the
committee's best estimate. The high-growth and low-growth cases are regarded
as unlikely but provide some bounding values.
The best-estimate scenario consists of three components: (1) DOE and its
contractors data (see Table 3-2 and Table E-4 for more detail); (2) other
governmental agencies and contractors data, assumed to remain constant over
the study period for all three scenarios (except for the Strategic Defense
Initiative Organization); and (3) civilian nuclear power industry data based
on the Electric Power Research Institute's (EPRI's) estimates of potential
contributions of nuclear power to the nation's electrical needs with a
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conservative five-year delay in implementation included. The committee's
assumption of a five-year delay was derived from discussions with senior
electric utility executives who indicated that the most likely date for a
resumption of nuclear plant orders would be around the year 2000.
The Department of Energy and Its Contractors
The federal demand for nuclear engineers over the next five years will result
primarily from replacement needs and the requirements of DOE's initiatives in
such areas as environmental remediation, nuclear waste disposal, new
production reactors, defense-related and nuclear energy R&D programs, and
augmentation of the agency's nuclear engineering staff. Much will depend on
the funding requested by the administration and appropriated by Congress.
Proceeding with these initiatives according to current schedules could soon
significantly increase the number of nuclear engineers required by DOE for
both reactor and non-reactor-related activities.
DOE provided the committee with its projections of nuclear engineering
employment for the agency itself and for its contractor system, based on both
high-growth and best-estimate scenarios. The assumptions for its growth
scenarios are listed in Appendix E (Table E-29. These data have been
summarized by Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU) and are shown in Table
3-2. The data received from DOE and its contractors reported only the nuclear
engineering needs. While other types of engineers or scientists might be able
to substitute for nuclear engineers in some situations, for most such types
(such as environmental, mechanical, or chemical engineering) high demand and
labor shortages are just as likely as for nuclear engineers.
TABLE 3-2 Actual and Projected Employment of Nuclear Engineers for DOE
Headquarters, Field, and Contractors, 1987-2010
Employment Scenario
Year High Growth Best Estimate Low Growth
1987 1,640 1,640 1,640
1995 4,010 2,940 1,740
2000 4,950 3,140 1,840
2005 5,720 3,230 1,840
2010 7,620 3,310 1,840
SOURCE: U.S. DOE (1989)
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Other Government Agencies and Contractors
Economic, political, and strategic factors could alter the federal
government's needs for nuclear engineers. However, in the absence of related
information, the committee assumed that nuclear engineering employment in non-
DOE government agencies (not including the Nuclear Regulatory Commission), the
military services, and associated contractor services will remain relatively
constant at 1,970 personnel over the study period for all three scenarios.
Another exception to this assumption concerns the Strategic Defense
Initiative (SDI) Organization (SDIO). SDIO requirements for employment of
nuclear engineers are expected to increase if nuclear power is selected as the
primary source of power for a significant number of SDI satellites (see
Appendix E, Table E-5~. The highest projected SDIO employment requirements
were calculated in the high-growth scenario. These requirements are projected
for 1995 to be 300 nuclear engineers, for the year 2000 to be 600, for 2005 to
be 1,500, and for 2010 to be 2,000 (Monahan, 1989~. The best-estimate
scenario does not include SDIO requirements, because present international
developments may result in a decreased SDIO program.
Civilian Nuclear Power Industry
The civilian nuclear power industry is the principal nongovernmental market
for nuclear engineers holding bachelor's and master's of science degrees.
Replacement needs alone will create a significant demand. The committee
believes that environmental concerns, such as about global warming, and
possible rising costs of electricity generated from fossil fuels may result in
a resurgence of nuclear power plant orders in the United States. These
factors could have a significant impact on nuclear engineering employment,
depending upon their timing and vigor. In interviews with utility chief
executive officers (CEOs), the committee was told that the most likely date
for a resumption of nuclear power plant orders would be around the turn of the
century. These CEOs pointed out that this resumption would have to be
preceded by further revisions of the nuclear licensing process to reduce the
financial risks and exposure to excessive delays associated with existing law.
It would also require a satisfactory resolution of the problems encountered in
the federal nuclear waste management program.
The committee believes that a primary determinant of nuclear engineering
employment in the civilian nuclear power industry is the number of nuclear
power plants on order, under construction and in service. The committee's
forecast relies on a mathematical model developed by Dr. William F. Naughton,
consultant to the committee, in which the independent variables are time and
the number of committed nuclear power units (see Appendix E). The model
assumes that any reductions in demand for nuclear engineers arising from the
use of advanced technologies, such as computer-aided design, would be smaller
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than other uncertainties. This impact was not quantified and could reduce the
projected demand estimate slightly.
For purposes of this study, it is assumed that few, if any, of the 111
nuclear power units currently licensed to operate or nearing service will be
retired before the year 2010. Even if some are retired, the nuclear
engineering employment needs associated with decommissioning are likely to
offset the reduction in employment of engineers for plant operations and
maintenance. The committee further assumes that utility staffing for the
nuclear plants under active construction and nearing service is essentially
complete. Because of the uncertain outlook for the inactive projects still on
the books, they have been omitted from this analysis.
The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) was designated by the
electric utility industry to provide the committee with a forecast of the
earliest realistic date at which the U.S. electric utilities could be expected
to begin ordering new nuclear power plants for public utility systems and an
estimate of the rate at which such new orders could be expected in the years
covered by this study. EPRI supplied a comprehensive analysis of the outlook
for electricity demand and potential generating resources based on a range of
average annual peak load growth rates from 1 to 3 percent, and various
assumptions about contributions from load management, plant life extension,
imports, and nonutility generation. EPRI's best-estimate case assumes a 2.6-
percent annual growth in electricity demand through the year 2000, followed by
a decade of 1.5-percent annual growth, with a 10-percent chance these growth
rates will be exceeded.
EPRI's median estimate translates into 170 gigawatts (electric) (GWe) of
new generating capacity by the year 2000 and over 300 GWe by 2010, some
fraction of which will be met by nuclear power. EPRI observed that a
resumption of nuclear power plant orders appears more likely than at any time
in the past decade, given such recent events and trends as the Nuclear
Regulatory Commission's new combined license rulemaking (10 CFR 52), increased
congressional interest in one-step nuclear licensing legislation, growing
awareness and concern about the environmental damage being created by
combustion of fossil fuels, and changes in public attitudes about the supply
of electric power stemming from shortages that occurred in some areas of the
country last year. EPRI concluded that as much as 10 percent of the new base
load electric generating capacity required by the year 2000 could be provided
by nuclear plants with new orders placed as early as 1993. This figure could
increase to 15 percent of new capacity from 2000 to 2005 and to 30 percent
from 2005 to 2010.
The EPRI estimate was used in forecasting nuclear engineering employment
for the high-growth case. The low-growth case assumes no new orders are
placed before the year 2010. The best-estimate case assumes a resurgence of
orders beginning, as predicted by the utility CEOs, in the year 2000, with
nuclear power accounting for 10 percent of new capacity through the year 2005
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and for 20 percent of new capacity through the year 2010. Table 3-3 shows the
amount of additional nuclear capacity assumed in making the employment
forecasts. The committee also assumed that two-thirds of the newly committed
reactors will be 1,200 megawatts (electric) (MWe), advanced light water
reactors and one-third will be 600 MWe class advanced designs with passive
engineered safety features.
TABLE 3-3 Projected Cumulative Additional Nuclear Power Plant Capacity
Ordered by U.S. Utilities, for Three Different Scenarios (in GWe)
Scenario
-
Year High Growth Best Estimate Low Growth
1990 0 0 0
1995 0 0 0
2000 18 0 0
2005 59 18 0
2010 108 59 0
Based on the assumptions for the different civilian nuclear power growth
scenarios of Appendix E (Table E-1), the committee's projections of employment
of nuclear engineers for the civilian nuclear power sector are shown in
Table 3-4.
TABLE 3-4 Actual and Projected Employment of Nuclear Engineers in the
Civilian Nuclear Power Sector, 1987-2010
Scenario
Year High Growth Best Estimate Low Growth
1987 8,030 8,030 8,030
1995 8,030 8,030 8,030
2000 9,450 8,030 8,030
2005 12,670 9,450 8,030
2010 16,450 12,670 8,030
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29
Consolidated Employment Forecast
Based on the above discussion and the 1987 civilian employment levels for the
nuclear power industry (8,030) and the federal government (3,610), as shown in
Table 3-l, the committee's employment forecast, using the forecasting model
and growth scenarios of Appendix E, is illustrated in Figure 3-l.
30
28
26
24
22
20
18 -
z ~
~ c ~ _
_
_
°] 14
12
o LOW GROWTH
10
8 ~
6
~ _
~~
~00
~ /
~ 00 ~ 700
/~
1981 1983 1985
1987 t990 1995 2000 2005 2010
YEAR
+BEST ESTIMATE
0 PUGH GROWTH
FIGURE 3-l Projected total civilian employment of nuclear engineers,
1990-2010, for three scenarios (estimated to the nearest hundred).
Ph.D. Employment
28000
-18000
~ tt800
In 1987, approximately 13 percent of nuclear engineers in the civilian labor
force (or about 1,500 persons) held Ph.D. degrees. The distribution of
employment for nuclear engineering Ph.D.s in 1987 is as follows: 38 percent
were employed in DOE laboratories, 37 percent in business, industries, and
utilities, 13 percent in educational institutions, and 12 percent in
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government, nonprofit, and other organizations (OSEP, 1987). Currently, there
is a stable market for nuclear engineering doctorates, with the power reactor
sector playing a modest role.
Throughout the 1980s, about 12 percent of the graduates in nuclear
engineering obtained doctoral degrees (Engineering Manpower Commission, 1980-
1988). Employment of nuclear engineers holding Ph.D. degrees is expected to
follow total nuclear engineering employment, that is, to remain at current
levels under the low-growth scenario and increase proportionally under the
high-growth and best-estimate scenarios. Most jobs for nuclear engineers with
federal agencies and their contractors require U.S. citizenship or security
clearances, or both. Since only about one-half of today's graduating Ph.D.s
in nuclear engineering are U.S. citizens, these requirements could be cause
for concern, especially under the high-growth scenario.
PROJECTED DEMAND FOR NUCLEAR ENGINEERS
In this study demand is defined as the annual new hiring requirement as
determined by projected increases in the level of employment plus expected
losses due to attrition (retirement, deaths, etc.) and transfers to management
and to jobs for which nuclear engineering skills are not required. In its
demand forecast, the committee assumed a replacement rate of 3.5 percent of
current employment rate. This estimate has been derived from assessments
conducted by ORAU's Labor and Policy Study Program using historical data and
age profiles from the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
the National Science Foundation's surveys of scientists and engineers (see
Appendix E).
The current demand distribution for nuclear engineers from the employment
data for 1988 graduates is shown in Table 3-5.
The Department of Energy and Its Contractors
ORAU has estimated the number of annual job openings for nuclear engineers
within DOE and its contractors for both the high-growth and best-estimate
scenarios (see Table 3-6~. The committee prepared an additional low-growth
estimate, which assumes a 3.5-percent replacement rate and no change in the
level of employment.
Other Government Agencies and Contractors
Since the committee assumed that nuclear engineering employment in non-DOE
federal agencies other than DOE, the military services, and related contractor
services would all remain relatively constant over the period the study
covered for all three scenarios (except for the SDIO), the demand for this
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sector is also projected to remain constant at 70 nuclear engineers per year
(with a 3.5-percent replacement rate for the 1,970 personnel).
TABLE 3-5 Placement of 1988 Graduates with Degrees or Equivalent Options in
Nuclear Engineering (in percents
Degree
Placement B.S. M.S. Ph.D.
Nuclear utility 13 14 6
Other industrial 15 9 12
DOE contractors 2 3 14
U.S. academic 2 2 18
Federal government 5 3 12
Continued study 24 36 7
U.S. military 16 10 3
Unknown 18 10 4
Foreign employment - 8 19
All other 4 5 5
a Totals may not equal 100 because of rounding.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Energy (1989~.
TABLE 3-6 Actual and Projected Job Openings Annually for New Nuclear
Engineering Graduates at DOE and DOE Contractors, 1987-2010
High-Growth Best Low-Growth
Year Estimate Estimate Estimate
1987 60 60 60
1995 440 270 60
2000 360 150 60
2005 350 130 60
2010 6S0 130 60
SOURCE: ORAU.
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As in the employment forecast, the SDIO demand for nuclear engineers is
considered only in the high-growth scenario. In this scenario, SDIO
employment forecast data are used with the demand equation (eq.43 in Appendix
E, yielding the following projected annual SDIO demand: 10 nuclear engineers
in the year 1995, 80 in the year 2000, 230 in the year 2005, and 170 in the
year 2010.
The best data the committee could obtain on the annual demand for
uniformed military personnel with nuclear engineering degrees did not allow an
exact count but it is estimated to be relatively small compared to nuclear
engineering enrollments. For purposes of this study, it is assumed that this
demand will remain constant over the study period. The Navy's Nuclear
Propulsion Program trains approximately 650 college-educated officers each
year for service in the nuclear fleet. Some come from Naval Reserve Officer
Training Corps (NROTC) programs at various universities. Others are graduates
of the military academies or receive equivalent training at the Navy's
in-house training facilities.
Civilian Nuclear Power Industry
The final component of the demand projection results from assumptions about
the resurgence of civilian nuclear power. Applying the demand model of
Appendix E to the civilian nuclear power forecast of Table 3-3 yields the
estimated demand for this sector shown in Table 3-7.
TABLE 3-7 Actual and Projected Annual Demand for Nuclear Engineers in the
Civilian Nuclear Power Sector, 1987-2010
Year
Scenario __
High Growth Best Estimate Low Growth
1987280280 280
1995280280 280
2000620280 280
20051,090620 280
20101,3301,090 280
Consolidated Demand Forecast
Applying the demand model of Appendix E to the forecast for industry and
government nuclear engineering employment results in the forecasts of total
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demand shown in Figure 3-2 (see Tables E-6 and E-7~. Both low-growth and
high-growth scenarios are considered less likely than the best estimate, but
suggest some limits. Because the best estimate projection leaves out some
components of demand, the committee believes the best estimate is somewhat
conservative and that actual demand could be higher. Even so, the best-
estimate projection forecasts a growing demand that increases beyond the year
2000. Shortages should be anticipated and adequate remedial programs
initiated in time to educate recruits (five to six years for B.S. graduates,
seven to eight years for M.S.s and nine to ten years for the Ph.D.s).
~4
~2
2
1.8
LL
I i. 1.4 -
C
z
C:
As
1.6
L2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
/ ~60Q
-
/
aft
/
-
/
/
/
/
~0
'I
/= ~
Befits- o4~B o400-- oath
/
/
/
/
O- 1 1 1 1
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
o LOW GROWTH
YEAR
+BEST ESTIMATE
o HIGH GROWTH
FIGURE 3-2 Projected annual demand for civilian nuclear engineers
in government and industry, 1990-2010, for three scenarios (estimated
to the nearest hundred).
>2200
1300
~400
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FINDINGS
In summary the committee reached the following findings
o From 1990 to 1995 the demand for nuclear engineers in the United
States will be largely driven by DOE program initiatives. Beyond the turn of
the century, the principal driver of demand is expected to be the number of
nuclear power plants in service, under construction, and undergoing life
extensions.
o The committee's best-estimate projection indicates an increase by 1995
by as much as 50 percent above the annual demand for nuclear engineers but
about 25 percent greater demand in 2000 (based on current figures). The best-
estimate projection envisions a doubling or trebling of current demand between
2000 and 2010.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
nuclear engineering
