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Chap ter 10
TITANIUM SUPPLY AND DEMAND AND PRICE TRENDS
Despite the unusual history of titanium as a structural metal, it has
much in common with its alternative construction materials. Viewed from
thi s perspective, titanium's turbulent first 30 years and the steadily
emerging strength of its industrial markets fit the usual pattern of
increasing stability based on ever-widening diversity and proportion of
incus t rial use s .
Against this background, this chapter reviews the economic history of
titanium and attempts to forecast its future to the year 2000. The panel
recognizes that no one can do that reliably because no one knows which
historical trends will persist and because unexpected events inevitably
will occur and signif icantly alter the forecast.
Titanium Supply
Sponge
U. S. and world capacity f or producing titanium sponge has been
increasing rapidly since the sponge shortage of 1979-80 (Table 26~. U.S.
capacity increased from 46 million lbs in 1979 to 61 million in 1981.
Thi s increase of 33 percent is expected to increase 26 percent to 76
million lbs in 1982-84, provided U. S . producers go forward with their
expansion plans and the planned plants of D-H Titanium, Albany Titanium,
and ITI are completed and put into production. (For reference,
Appendix I lists major organizations in the U.S. titanium industry.)
In retrospect, it is interesting to compare the current situation
with that in 1959 when U.S. sponge production capacity was 58 million
lbs. Government-subsidized sponge plants operated by DuPont (8.6 million
lbs), CRAVAT ~ 12 million lbs), Dow ~ 3.5 million lbs), and Union Carbide
(5 million lbs) shut down as a result of withdrawal of government support
and poor business prospects. A major factor was the abrupt switch in
U.S. defense strategy from dependence on manned aircraft to
nonairbreathing missiles. Present and future sponge producers must have
carefully examined the current prospects for titanium sponge and mill
products before deciding to proceed with their expansion and new plant
plans .
125
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126
TABLE 26 World Titanium Sponge Capacity (thousand pounds)
__
Source 1979 1980 1981 1982-84
Uni ted S Late s
TIlIET 26,00028,00030,000 32,000
RMI 15 ,00019 ,00019,000 19 ,000
OREl$E:T 5,0006,0009,OOO 9,000
Teledyne Wah Chang--3,0003 ,000 3,000
1>H Titanium ~--500 5, ooo
International Titanium -- -- -- 8, 000
Subtotal 46,000 56,000 61,50076,000
Japan
Os aka
Toho
Ni ppon Soda
Ishizuka Research
Subt otal
21,20026,400
14,60020,000
__4,800
___
3S,80051,200
29,000
26,400
4, 800
40,000
32,000
4,800
2 800
60, 200 79, 600
Europe
IMI5,000 4,0003,000 -
DTL (RR Consortium)- -- 1l,000
European Consortium-- -- NA
Subtotal5,000 4,0003,000 11,000
Peoples Republic of China4,000 4,0005,000 6,000
Sovie t Union
Total
86,000 94,000 98~000 100,000
176,800 209,200 227,700 272,600
a Re ported to be postponed until 1985 .
NA 5 Data not available.
Since 19 79, world capacity for producing titanium sponge has
increased by 29 percent to 228 million lbs in 1981, including the
Japanese expansion of 100 percent since early 1979. It will increase to
about 270 million lbs based on new greenfield plants planned in the
United States and the United Kingdom.' In addition, there are many
announced or unannounced studies being conducted in the United States and
abroad concerning the opening of new sponge plants. Principal action has
been planned by a German-French group, several consortia in Australia,
and efforts by the People's Republic of China (PRC) to attract outside
support to expand their capacity to 20 million lbs. Even without such
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127
support, the PRO capacity is scheduled to increase to 6 million lbs by
1983. In the United States, the building of new titanium plants has been
considered by several oil and metal companie s . Thus, the new capacity
figures stated in. Table 26 may prove to be conservative.
Imported sponge has been used for many years in producing titanium
products in the United States (Figure 18) . The reason f or this use of
heavy imported sponge is that the nonintegrated melters, who comprise
about 30 percent of U.S. ingot capacity, have preferred vacuum-distilled
sponge imported from Japan and the Soviet Union. These imports offer
equivalent or superior price and quality, and because of better vacuum
arc melting (VAR) melting characteristics as noted earlier, U.S. sponge
consumption has exceeded domestic capacity only in two periods, 1974 and
1979-80. Imports have been important in filling these gaps; however, the
other factors mentioned keep the nonintegrated melters as major importers
0 f sponge .
The amount of scrap and imported sponge used and the quantity and
price of domestic sponge are given in Table 27 and Figure 19. Imported
sponge accounted f or about 25 percent of the sponge consumed during the
f irst half of the 1970s. This declined to about 10 percent when imported
sponge was in short supply due to the virtual withdrawal of Soviet sponge
and the diversion of Japanese sponge to it s own and European
consumption. Data on sources of imported sponge are given in Table 28.
Prices of sponge (Figure 19) escalated sharply in 1979 but now are
decreasing as a result of increased sponge capacity in the IJnited States
and elsewhere.
cot
JOt
it. Imeo~:.`
·0 .
taco ,Etl t~72 1Bt,
1~4 1~?5 here ,.~7 here ·~' to 1~'
Figure 18 Sponge consumption and supply.
Source: TIBET presentation to the panel 1981.
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128
TABLE 27 U . S. Titanium Consumption and Sponge Pricing, 1970-1981
~ in short tons ~
.
Mill
Consumption _ Sponge Ingo t Product Sponge Price
Year Sponge Scrap Ingot Import Prod 'n Shipment Current$ 1970$a
1981 ~- 7.65 3.67
1980 26,943 15,406 42,494 4,777 41,804 27,076 7.02 3.61
1979 23,937 13,986 35,440 2,488 37,125 21,122 3.98 2.23
1978 19,854 12,318 30,746 1,474 31,385 17,650 3.28 2.00
1977 16,236 10,889 25,241 2,287 26,302 15,290 2.98 1.96
1976 13,315 9,211 21,417 1,778 21,850 14,500 2.70 1.88
1975 17,626 8,316 24,486 4,190 25,560 15,628 2.70 1.97
1974 26,896 10,599 31,563 6,963 36,131 17,443 2.2S 1.79
1973 20,173 10,038 25,409 5,172 28,932 14,530 1.42 1.23
1972 13,068 7,802 19,499 3,808 20,267 12,627 1.32 1.21
1971 12,145 6,149 17,058 2,803 18,387 11,241 1.32 1.27
1970 16,414 7,242 23,687 5,931 24,331 14,480 1.32 1.32
a De flated according to the GNP price deflator.
Source: Data f rom U . S . Bureau of Census and U . S . Bureau of Mines, 1981.
15
at
o
a.
...
_ 10
a:
J
J
o
C)
oh ~
_ t~ _-
W_
_ A,, , . . ,,,, . ,,,, ,, ,,, . , , . . , . . ., . ,,,, ,,. . , . ,_
~[ piracy
///
Estimated Spot Prices (excess capacity J
0 ~I I I ~ 1
1979 1 980 1 98t ~ 1982 1983 1984
YEAR
Figure 19 Ti tank sponge prices .
Source: Kane 1981.
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129
TABLE 28 U. S. Imports of Sponge (in short tons)
. . . .. .
Year Japan USSR IJK PRO Total
19722,2351,408164 - 3,808
19732,9371,628607 5,172
19742,8203,625685 6,963
19752,4041,313473 4,190
19761, 358256164 -- 1, 778
19771,673469245 -- 2,287
1978756604116 -- 1, 474
19792,0583301 99 2,488
19803,72016531a 861 4,777
a To Cal f rom European sources.
Source: Data from U.S. Bureau of Census, 1981.
Ingot
As shown in Table 29, the 1981 ingot-making capacity of the IJnited
States was 96 million lbs and that of the Western World was 130 million
lbs. Based on a scrap content of 35 percent, full utilization of ingot
melting capacity would require 62 million lbs of sponge in the United
States and 85 million lbs of sponge in the Western World. The 1981 U.S.
sponge capacity was 58 mi lllon lbs, 4 million lbs short (i.e., if more
U.S. ingot production were suddenly required, the bottleneck would be
sponge capacity, not melting capacity) . But this 1981 U.S . titanium
sponge capacity is very close to U. S. melting capacity. Moreover,
Western World (U.S., Japanese, and European) sponge capacity is 125
million lbs, 40 million lbs above f ull ingot melting capacity. Imports
f ram the USSR and the PRC could further increase sponge availability.
The pro jected U. S . sponge capacity of 76 million lbs in 1982-1984
would be suf f icient to provide sponge for all U . S . melters without the
necessity f or importing sponge. It i s probable that ache nonintegrated
titanium producers, with approximately 30 percent of the U. S . ingot
capacity, will use new U.S. vacuum-distilled sponge as it becomes
available if it is price competitive. However, they also probably will
continue to import vacuum-distilled sponge from Japan and the Soviet
Union because their VAR furnaces are designed to use vacuum-distilled
sponge. Moreover, D-H Titanium, although it probably will consume all of
its own production for several years, will be producing electrolytic
titanium that is readily meltable in the nonintegrated producers' VAR
furnaces. Further, since there is an 18 percent duty on sponge from
Japan and a 2 5 percent duty on sponge f ram the Soviet Union, the amount
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1
TABLE 29 1981 Ingot Capacities
130
, ~
(in thousand lbs)
Source
United States
TIMET
RMI
OREMET
Subto tal
HORNET
Martin Marietta
A1lvac
Wah Chang
Lawrence
Subto tat
Japan
To ho
Kobe
Europe
-
Amount
33~000
23~000
10~000
66~000 (69% by integrated melters)
10~500
8~000
7~500
2~000
2~000
30,000 (31Z by independent melters)
96~000
Subtotal
IMI
Ce zus ~ Pechiney
Krupp
Contimet
Teeside
Subtotal
T014
6,000
8,000
14,000
8,000
2,000
3,000
3,000
4,000
20~000
130,000
of imports probably will decline markedly when the new U.S. sponge plants
are in production unless one or more foreign governments choose to
subsidize exports to the United States.
U. S . melting capacity could be increased relatively quickly at a co st
of about $1,000 per annual ton, in contrast with the estimate of $10,000
per annual ton for new sponge capacity . In general , VAR f acilities
designed for melting steel ingots cannot be used for titanium because
they lack needed safety features and sufficient pumping capacity. Also,
considerable expertise is needed to melt titanium, and it is expected
that increased ingot capacity could be developed by expanding of existing
titanium meltshops and trained work forces rather than by converting VAR
steel facilities.
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131
Some titanium ingots for critical rotating components are triple
melted to reduce the probability of occurrence of low-density inclusions
(LDIs). With greater availability of vacuum-distilled sponge made with
suf f ancient excess magnesium to ensure the absence of lower titanium
chlorides ~ the suspected main cause of oxidation and sponge burning and
the consequent formation of LDIs), there should be little need to triple
melt. At present, between 10 and 20 percent of titanium ingots are
triple melted . Elimination of this requirement would, in eff ect,
increase U.S. ingot capacity.
Most scrap is recycled by melting in composite consumable electrodes
wherein scrap pieces and sponge briquettes are welded together, a proces s
that is labor-intensive and costly. Better scrap-handling processes have
been developed, including electron beam melting, inert electrode melting,
and skull melting. Processes also have been developed to clean up and
reprocess machine turnings, chips, and thin gauge sheet . Such scrap
processing facilities will have to be increased, particularly if the use
of castings increases. Only modest capital requirements are involved.
Mi 11 Proces sing
With f ew exceptions, the facilities used for fabricating titanium
mill product s were designed and built for steel production. The
deformation processing characteristics of titanium and its alloys are
similar to those of stainless steel except that greater attention must be
paid to surf ace processing with attendant greater losses. The problem of
high deformation resistance of titanium alloys could be overcome by the
use of heavier equipment capable of larger reductions at lower
temperatures.
U.S. forging capacity apparently is sufficient to handle open-die
forging requirements for titanium. However, there are too few large
closed-die facilities to process titanium forgings with large plan areas
(e.g., landing gear beams, bulkheads, and carrythroughs) and long lead
times recently have been required even for forgings of smaller sizes.
The United States has only the two 35,000-ton and two 50,000-ton presses
at Alcoa and Wyman Gordon for the forging of larger items. A campaign
several years ago for the Air Force to procure a 200,000-ton press for
large-plan f orgings was unsuccessf ul. Processing billets to heavy
barstock generally is done in GEM swaying machines, some of which are
small and outmoded and need replacement with heavier duty machines.
Alloy sheet products generally are produced f rom ho t band cot 1 s
rolled in Steckel mills. Cut sheets are cross-pack rolled to gauge (as
stacked sheets encased in an iron envelope) on hand-sheet mills, a rather
antiquated and clearly costly process. This has been dictated by the
anisotropy of continuously strip-rolled alloys, and the consequent need
to cross roll. Unalloyed titanium is strip processed to sheet, and some
of the new beta alloys should be amenable to strip processing. Since the
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strip mills have very high production capability, there should be 1' ttle
concern about their ability to handle any increase in demand for titanium
strip. However, in the recent past, demand for strip mill time has been
very heavy because 0 f the need for strip of several kinds of metal ~ not
just titanium) . Consequently, the lead times experienced for titanium
strip have been long.
A possible, but f ar-f rom-certain, solution to the problem of
continuously strip rolling any titanium alloy while achieving isotropy,
is that of tonnage powder metallurgy discussed in Chapter 11.
Plate mills suitable for producing ship plate and pressure vesse 1
plate are entirely suitable f or producing wide, thick plate of titanium
alloys such as might be needed for submarine hulls, wing skins, and tube
sheets. The mill capacity to produce large titanium plate is believed to
be ent irely adequate .
Approximately two-thirds of the total capacity to produce mill
products of all types resides with the three integrated producers of
sponge titanium, TIMET, RMI and OREMET, and one nonintegrated company,
Martin Marietta Aluminum (MMA) . However, another score or so of
companies also produce titanium products. A representative listing (not
intended to be all-inclusive) of these companies and their products and
approximate capacit ies i s given in Table 30.
The listing serves to show that a large number of companies
participate In making the semifinished forms of titanium that are shipped
to customers who manufacture end-use items.
The 1981 U.S. capacity to produce mill products Is about 60 million
lbs (about 30,000 tons) divided among the several producers. The
distribution of titanium products according to product form is
illus bated by Table 31.
Ti tanium Demand
Historical Demand
The above discussion has f ocused primarily on historical f acts, but,
since past is prologue, it must be considered in making forecasts of
f uture conditions. This discussion is concerned primari ly with such
f orecasts .
The growth of U.S. consumption of titanium mill products is shown in
Figure 20. Like many metals important in military applications, the
first 30 years of titanium production were marked by violent fluctuations
in demand as the U.S. military aerospace strategy varied and, later, with
the commercial aerospace demand cycles. In contrast, the growth of the
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Company
TIME T
RMI
OREMET
~A
Crucible
HOWME:T
Lawre nce
Teledyne Allvac
NF&M
Lad ish
W-G
Viking
Te ledyne Wa h Chang
G.O. Carlson
Trent Tube
ITT Ha rper
Cabot
Dynamet
As tromet
Precision Rolled
Products
Ti-Tech Int'1
Precision Cast-
parts
'ri-Line
Wa shing ton S teel
Zi=Tech
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
o
o
o
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0 0 - 0
0 0 0 0 -
p
C
0 0 0
n
O O
133
industrial market has been steady. In the 1980s, the U. S. market for
titanium mill products was about 50 million lbs and was composed roughly
of 70 to 80 percent commercial and military aerospace demand in equal
amount s and 20 tc, 30 percent of other industrial demand .
TABLE 30 U. S. Mill Product Producers and Their Capacities*
Capacity
Productsa To tal Product
B b P S s E T O (million lbs
o
o
o
21.0
13.0
3.0
5.0
3.0 b
0.3
1.5
2.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
0.5
0.3
0.8 b
0.2
W
W
C
C
1.0
0.3
0.5
0.3 b
0.5 b
0.3 b
0.5 b
0.2 b
60.1/65.7
(larger figure includes estimates)
a B=billet, b=bar, P=plate, S=sheet, s~s trip, E=extrusions, T=tubing,
O=other, P=powder, C=castings, W=wire, R=rolled shapes.
b Estimated.
* Recent
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134
Mill Products Shipped Emil lion Ibs)
1000
500
300
200
100
~0
30
20
10
is
3
2
Sponge Price (S/lb)
1000
8% growth
Total ~/3% growth _
/ ~/8% grows:
<\_/~lodustrial
~I~V
_ ~
~ Sponge
_ _ / ~ Deiced\
1950
document dollars
_~1970 dollars
500
300
200
1
50
30
20
10
5
3
2
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Figure 20 History of U. S . Mill products shipments and sponge price .
Source: Jaf fee 1980.
TABLE 31 1980 U.S. Titanium Mill Products Production (millions of lbs)
Produc t Amount
Sponge Consumed
Do me st ic
Imported
Scrap Consumed 29
Mi 11 Product Produced 54
Billet
F1 at Ro lied
Rod, Bar, Wire
Ex trus i ons
Castings
44
10 ( 19 percent of sponge)
54 ( 6 5 percent of ingot )
(36 percent of ingot)
( 65 percent of ingot )
4 7 .0 percent
22.0 percent
2 0. 0 pe rcent
10.5 percent
0.5 percent
100 .0 percent
Note: Tubular products are included under flat rolled (welded) and
extruded ~ seamless) . Generally, sponge weight is 1.0 to 1.2
times mill products, whereas ingot weight is 1. S to 1.7 time s
mill produc t s .
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135
Over the past decade, the commercial aerospace market grew rapidly at
an annual rate of about 15 percent while military aerospace remained
e ssentially unchanged and the industrial sector grew at about 12
percent. Overall, the growth rate over the 1970s was about 6.5 percent.
Table 32 illustrates the general makeup of the market . In the l950s,
practically all titanium mill products were used in military aerospace
applications. Today commercial aerospace and industrial applications
comprise 60 to 7 S pe rcent of the market .
TABLE 32 Market Mix for Mill Products
1955 1961 1966 1973 1980
Mill Products (10 million lbs)
Aero space ~ percent
Military
Commercial
Industrial ~ percent
Source: Jaffee, 1980.
Future Demand
Near Term
4 11 29 29 54
94 74 75 44 28
3 20 19 36 50
3 6 6 20 22
A number of forecasts for the near-term titanic market are
available. Most predict a flat market over the next five years (in the
range of 50 to 60 million lbs of mill product annually). The commercial
aerospace market, undoubtedly the main cause of the shortage in
1979-1980, has reduced and stretched out its titanium requirements
whereas the military aerospace market for titanium has yet to respond to
the Reagan administration's emphasis on increased defense procurement.
The industrial market probably has been hurt by the sharp increase in the
cost of titanium mill products, particularly tubing. Thus, over the next
five years an oversupply of U.S. titanium sponge might be expected. Mill
product capacity possibly could change from a current supply balance to a
surplus of as much as 10 to IS million lbs in 198S.
The most likely near-term new military procurement is the long-range
combat aircraft (LRCA). This is typified by the B-1 bomber with about a
190,000 lbs buy weight of titanium for each plane with engines (some
estimates are up to 250, 000 lbs per plane) . If 100 B-ls were procured,
the additional t itanium in the near-term market, based on the 190, 000 lbs
buy weight, would be 19 million lbs of mill product. This amount of
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142
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143
TABLE 35 World Industrial Market for Titanium
(millions of lbs)
Mill Product Type _
Tube and pipe 11 12
Shee t and s tri p 4 4
Plate 3 4
Bar, billet 2 3
Wire 0 5 0 5
Castings 0 5 0 5
Total 21.0 24.0
Source: Kane presentation to the panel, March 1981
TABLE 36 World Mill Product Applications (millions of lbs)
Ap plicat~on 1978 1980
Heat transfer 11 13
Electrodes 5 5
Chemical equipment 4 4
Mi scellaneous 1 1
Total 21 24
Source: Kane 1981.
These categories were broken down further in Table 37; these data
will be used as a basis for estimating long-term demand.
TABLE 37 Ti tanium f or Chemical Equipment Use (millions of pounds)
Use 1978 1980
Power plant condensers 6.0 7 . O
Oil ref. ineries 1.5 1.8
Desalinization 1.0 1.3
Chemical plant 2.0 2.3
Mi scellaneous
Sewage oxidation, plating baths, etc .
Total
0.6
13.0
Source: Kane 1981.
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144
Heat Transf er
__
The growth of t' tanium use in salt-water-cooled power-plant
condensers has been spectacular, and it now is the largest industrial
use. The pert ormance of titanium as a condenser tube material has been
out standing and increased utilization i s anticipated despite the advent
of several cheaper alternatives. A comparison of condenser tube prices
in April 1981 for salt-water condenser tubing of equivalent strength is
given in Table 38.
TABLE 38 Salt-Water Condenser Tubing Prices (1981 dollars per foot)
Metal Gauguin. ~Price
Ti 0.028 1.85
A16X 0.028 1.47
29-4C ().028 1.12
Cu-lONi 0.049 1.08
The titanium tubing can be assembled by welding directly to titanium
or titanium-clad tube sheets. This results in a virtually leak-ti ght
condenser, which is much desired for system reliability, especially for
nuclear power plants. (Condenser leakage is one of the major causes of
forced outages in steam generators and turbines.) Increased use of
titanium for condenser service is expected because of its selection for
new nuclear plants in France, Japan, and Taiwan. The construction of
U.S. power plants has been relatively slow, at a rate of about 2000 MW
annually, because of overcapacity and reduced electricity consumption.
However, additions to generating capacity are expected to be at a rate of
20,000 MW by 1990 after the present high reserve margin is reduced to
normal. U. S . titanium condenser use certainly should increase as well .
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (O'1EC) merits brief mention in this
1981 f orward look at titanium' s prospects because it could provide an
important new market for titanium. How likely, how soon, and how much
are not now known. The pro Sections of the world ' s future energy
requirements that OTEC's proponents anticipate their technology will
sup ply and the unprecedented large amounts of titanium that might be
required f or this activity, strain the credence of those not familiar
with the OTEC program. The only point the panel considers appropriate to
put f orward in this report is that it seems prudent for the U. S. titanium
industry to take cognizance of OTEC' s existence and assiduously to
mono tor its progress worldwide. They should do everything appropriate to
stay competitive with aluminum as OTEC' s chief material alternative, and
compete with the Japanese who have already captured the first industrial
OTEC pi lot production contract.
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145
The large ultimate prospects for OTEC, and for its consumption of
titanium, can be gauged by the following brief outline:
1. Decades into the next century, OTEC proponents forecast that (a)
OTEC-derived power could be made available anywhere in the world
in amounts exceeding present total world energy consumption (Naef
1982~ ; (b) electric power produced in the U.S. by either OTEC
direct-wired or fuel cell options at costs well below those f or
oil and within the ranges quoted f or coal or nuclear power af ter
1990 (Naef 1982~; (c) manufacture of methanol to replace gasoline
as a lower-cost, more environmentally-acceptable motor fuel (Avery
1981~; (d) methanol or ammonia as optimum fuels in fuel cells
operating at considerably higher thermal efficiencies than either
diesel or turbine engines (Richards 1981~; (e) ammonia fertilizer
and chemical (Manley et al. 1981~; and (c) supply of lower-cost
energy for such high-energy manufacturing processes as aluminum
production (Manley et al. 1981~.
2. If titanium were selected for OTEC plants, by current projections,
upward s of 54 million lbs per year would be required during the
next decade; a quanti ty about equal to the entire U.S. titanium
mill product production in it s peak year, 198() . An unprecedented
900 million lbs per year would be needed in the period from 2000
to 2025 (Avery 1981~.
The basis f or this extraordinary prospect is the exploitation of
solar energy on a truly global scale. This action fully exploits the
facts that (a) subtropical, tropic, and equatorial seas constitute the
world's largest and lowest-cost solar energy collectors; (b) the polar
seas comprise an equally large and low-cost heat sink; and (c) the vast
ocean currents thereby generated provide "inexhaustible" 40°F water only
3,000 feet below the roughly 80°F surface water. The latter would be
used to vaporize ammonia to drive an electric turbogenerator, while the
40 °F water i s pumped to the surf ace to condense the ammonia vapor.
Although the thermal efficiency is only about 2 1/2 percent, the fuel,
however, i s " f ree . '
But the volumes of sea water--and the corresponding sizes of titanium
(or aluminum) heat exchangers--necessitated by this low thermal
efficiency are vast. For example, a 220 MWe OTEC plant would have a
water flow comparable to that of Boulder Dam. However, it would require
only 4 ~ MW of pumping power ~ Naef 1982 ~ . Thus OTEC f aces f ormidable
scat e-up problems. However, it has none of the exotic materials or
exotic scientific and engineering challenges that are posed by
alternative energy sources like nuclear and fusion processes. Similarly,
there are essentially no terrorist related or environmental problems. On
the contrary, mariculture is a promising byproduct option. Net OTEC
power generation was first successfully demonstrated in the deep ocean
of f Hawaii by "Mini-OTEC" in 1979. A titanium heat exchanger was used
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146
(Owens and Tremble 1980~. Since October 1981, a Japanese-built and
operated OTEC plant on the island nation of Nauru near the equator has
been successfully producing net electric power in a pilot operation.
Japanese titanium Is being used as the heat exchanger material (Naef
1982).
Several of the more competent engineering organizations of the world
are active in OTEC: General Elecric, Westinghouse, Brown & Root, Gibbs
and Hill, TRW, EBASCO, J. R. McDermott, Science Applications, Inc.,
Global Marine, Lockheed, Owens-Corning, M. W. Kellogg, Raytheon, Rand
Corp., Applied Physics Laboratory of the Johns Hopkins University, Stone
& Weber, General Dynamics, and many others (Richards 1982~. At least
nine independent engineering studies have concluded that OTEC electric
energy will be cost-competitive with electricity produced by coal or
nuclear power; these nine are: General Electric, Westinghouse, Toshiba,
Lockheed, Applied Physic Laboratory of the Johns Hopkins University, Rand
Corp., Mitre Corp., Hawaii Natural Energy Institute, and Science
Applications, Inc. The last organization has concluded that: "Although
dependent on many parameters, nominal OTEC levelized bus tear electricity
costs are estimated at 6~/KWH for 400MW units" (Dunbar 1981; and Manley
et al. 1981~. The Department of Energy announced early in 1982 the award
of two cost-sharing contracts of $900,000 each for conceptual designs of
40MW OTEC p ilot plants to General Electric and to Ocean Thermal
Corporation. General Electric plans to use an aluminum heat exchanger
and Ocean Thermal, titanium (Richards 1982~.
Ti tantrum i s a logical candidate f or OTEC heat exchangers because it
can be expected to serve reliably for at least 30 years whereas aluminum
presents serious questions about adequate longevity; estimated at 15
years despite at least doubled wall thickness compared with titanium.
The costs of candidate heat-exchanger materials are not far apart
(private communication, E. Kinelski, DoE, July 1981) if the projected
cost of electricity produced from equipment constructed from the various
candidates ~ s considered (Table 39~. The prices of the titanium and
stainless steel exchangers are comparable. The chief questions relative
to the use of titanium are the reality of the OTEC application itself and
whether the heat exchangers would be made of aluminum or of titanium.
TABLE 39 Cost Comparison of Alternative Materials for OTEC Shell
and Tube Heat Exchangers
Metal
Ti
A1-6X
29-4C
A1-3003
_ _ _
Labor and Material
(1981 $/kW)
950
900
810
740
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The quantities of titanium required, if OTEC is fully developed,
would dwarf present aerospace needs and would revolutionize the titanium
industry. OTEC may never reach the full production envisioned by its
proponents. Its potential importance to the titanium outlook is
nevertheless so great that, as noted earlier, its development should be
monitored closely and supported by the U.S. titanium industry wherever
possible and appropriate.
De salination of seawater in multistage f lash evaporators may expand
significantly, particularly in the Middle East where water is in short
supply and capital is readily available. Already several large units,
each utilizing over 2 million lbs of titanium, have been installed in
Saudi Arabia (Al Jubail and elsewhere) by the Japanese. Harvey Aluminum
(now Martin Marietta Aluminum) constructed the first desalination plant
in St. Croix, Virgin Islands, in 1965. Use of titanium for desalination
might increase manyf old by the year 2000.
Ti tanium heat-exchanger applications for cooling sour crudes in
offshore wells, in oil refineries, and for chemical plant use are well
established and are expected to show steady growth. Titanium heat
exchangers also are of interest for binary-cycle geothermal power
plant s . This would be a new requirement .
Elec bodes
The use o f titanium in dimensionally stable anodes f or chlorine and
sodium chlorate manufacture is well established. Thin platinum-type
coatings on the titanium are used, and power consumption is much lower
than when graphite anodes are used. This market, however, is not
expected to increase significantly.
The cathode market for electrowinning of metals from sulfide and
lateritic ores in acid solution is an important possible future
application. This Is a means for avoiding the roasting of the sulfide
ores with attendant environmental problems. Recent titanium consumption
data for electrodes are given in Table 40.
Chemical Process Equl pment (Excluding Heat Transfer)
After a long period of introduction, titanium has become a
well-established material of construction for chemical process equipment
~ Table 41) . Continued growth of the market is assumed, unless the price
of titanium mid 1 products increases greatly relative to competitive
corrosion-resistant materials. The prices for corrosion-resistant
materials, as determined by one producer in 1978 (Table 42), reveal the
type of competition that titanium must face. Titanium was about twice as
expensive on a dollar per volume basis as 316L stainless steel, about
equal to 317L and 904L steels ~ and less expensive than some of the more
exotic alloys.
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Ma ter tats
Titanium
316L
317L
9 04L
20Cb 3
Monel 400
Haste lloy C 27 6
148
TABLE 40 Titanium for Electrode Applications (millions of lbs ~
Application 1978 1980
Chlorine anodes 2 . 0 2 . ()
Sodium chlorate anodes 1.0 1. O
Nickel plating baskets 0.8 0.8
Anodizing racks 0.3 O. 3
Copper cathodes O. .2 0.2
Mi scellaneous 0. 7 O. 7
Total 5.0 5.0
Source: Kane 1981.
TABLE 41 Ti tanium Use in Chemical Process Equipment (millions of lbs
.
Equipment Type 1978 1980
_
Tanks and vessels 2.0 2.5
Mixers and internals 0.5 0.6
Drum washers and diffusers 0.5 0.6
Piping systems 0.4 0.3
Hardware - pumps, valves, etc. 0.2
Mi scellaneous O. . 4 1. O
Total 4.0 5.0
Source: Kane 1981.
TABLE 42 Price of Titanium and Other Corrosion-Resistant Materials
in 1978 (dollars per square foot of 1/4 inch-thick plate)
Price
32
16
29
32
50
41
83
Source: RMI presentation to the panel, March 1981.
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149
A more recent comparison of the relative price of corrosion-resistant
alloys In 1/4-inch plate, 5,000 lbs quantities, indicates that titanium
remains competitive with nickel-based alloys despite its price rise.
Down-Ho 1 e Tubi ng
A potentially large application for titanium alloys is for down-hole
tubulars in deep-hole sour-gas wells. The application involves service
at depths up to 20,000 feet; at pressures up to 20,000 psi and at
temperatures 11p to 260°C in very aggressive environments that contain 20
to 50 percent H2S, 10 percent CO2, 25 percent brine, and an acid pH
o f 5 to 5.5. Ti tanium alloys have been successfully tested under these
conditions, but the particular alloy that has the best combination of
strength and corrosion resistance is still under investigation.
A titanium drill string would be used only under the most arduous
conditions, with less costly materials used at lower temperatures. A
typical string might involve 10, 000 f eet of 3-inch-diameter seamless
titanium tubing with 0.5 inch wall thickness. This would require about
100, 000 lbs of high-strength, titanium alloy tubing. Since most new gas
wells will be deep, over 15,000 feet, the deep-well application could
require tens of millions of lbs of high-strength, titanium alloy.
Titanium alloys also could be useful for deep geothermal wells because
the environment is similar, although the temperatures and pressures are
less. However, far fewer geothermal wells would be drilled. The
geothermal sources most likely to be used are those which have a pH
greater than 5.5 that permit the use of steel down-hole piping.
Mi scellaneous
Included under this category is a host of small applications for
titanium that generally involve a combination of strength or of some
other mechanical property and corrosion resistance. Several of these
might expand signif icantly.
Steam turbines are a good example. The installed steam turbine
capacity is expected to be about 600 to 700 GW in the next 10 to 20
years. If the median-size turbine is 400 to 500 ME, this would
car re spond t o 2, 000 t o 3, 000 low-pre s sure turbine s . Ti tanium ~ s o f
interest for steam turbine blading in the corrosive, penultimate (L-1)
row and in the long, las l-stage ~ LS ~ row. The requirement f or the L-1
row i s less, perhaps 1, 500 lbs per row of 16-inch L-1 blades or 3, 000 lbs
for a double-flow turbine. The long, last-stage blade row might take
4,000 lbs of alloy titanium for 31-inch blades or 8,000 lbs for double
flow. Equipping 100 turbines with titanium alloy L-1 and LS blades would
require about 1 million lbs of barstock over the period of installation.
Titanium blades have been under successful development for about 20
years, but i t probably will take another 10 to 20 years bef ore the
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150
application is generally accepted. There are alternative approaches to
handling the corrosive row. The last-stage application would emerge only
if many large turbines with extremely long blades were required, which is
unlikely. Thus, the steam turbine blade application will probably remain
small (less than 0.5 million lbs) for quite a while.
Another example of a potentially large application is the automotive
suspension spring. Because of the high strength, low modulus, and low
density of heat-treated beta titanium alloys, titanium springs would
weigh only 28 percent of comparable steel springs. The automotive spring
application would involve very large production with the market estimated
to be in the 10-million-pound range. The likelihood of adoption is
small, however, because of the high cost of titanium and the large
quantity required.
Titanium alloys have been evaluated as a first-wall fusion-reactor
material because of their excellent resistance to void formation and
swelling after radiation by energetic neutrons and the relatively rapid
decay of induced radioactivity. Such an application appears to be far
off because fusion energy is estimated to be well into the twenty-first
century.
A probable market in the future would appear to be government
purchases for the U.S. National Stockpile. Since 260 million lbs are
required to meet the current stockpile ob jective of 390 million lbs,
purchases of 20 million lbs annually would require 13 years. As
advocated elsewhere in this report, this and related stockpile questions
should be examined by appropriate ad hoc panels .
Economics
It is clear that the fluctuations in the availability and price of
titanium products are closely coupled with the demand for the metal and
the capacity to produce it. As the supply of titanium products nears the
capacity of the domestic industry supplemented by imports, the shortage
is easily exacerbated by purchases for inventory anticipating short
supply. This drives up the price of titanium and extends delivery lead
time s . Conversely, in periods of slack demand, purchasers of titanium
products reduce their inventories and hold back on purchases in
anticipation of price declines. Thus, the fluctuations in availability
and price are worsened by the nature of the market. Titanium is not
alone in this regard. Market instability is an inherent factor in most
metal industries. The major worldwide expansion of titanium supply
should serve to greatly stabilize the titanium market.
The price of titanium has increased over the past 5 years about twice
as much as commodity prices in general. The price of several other
metals, notably cobalt and tantalum, increased about tenfold over the
same period (now about threefold) while steel, aluminum, and nickel
followed the general inflationary course of price rises.
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151
The aerospace market is relatively inelastic to the price of titanium
products. The applications generally demand titanium's properties or a
performance penalty must be paid. If near-net-shape technology matures,
the use of titanium in aerospace could well decline in absolute
magnitude. The industrial market for titanium, on the other hand, is
markedly sensitive to price. Many projected major new applications will
not materialize if the prices of titanium mill products stay at their
present level relative to the price of alternative materials. Thus, the
anticipated decline in titanium prices resulting f ram increased worldwide
sponge capacity should have a marked beneficial effect in stabilizing and
expanding the industrial market.
Summa ry
The f oregoing discussions attempt to demonstrate that the titanium
industry is at a relatively early stage of development, that all of its
present applications are firm, and that prospects are excellent for the
development of some large new applications. Assuming that a growth of 7
percent annually for 10 years would double the present demand, and
projecting from a ~ 980 base of 25,000 tons, U.S. production of 100,000
tons of mill products may be achieved by the year 2000. With 6 percent
`growth, the consumption would be 75,000 tons by the year 2000, indicating
the size of the possible error in the estimate from only minor variations
in growth rate. World consumption of mill products is currently about
twice U. S . consumpti on based on sponge . If this factor held through the
year 2000, world consumption would be 200,000 tons at 7 percent growth
and 150, 000 tons at 6 percent growth.
It i s probable that world titanium sponge production capacity will
lead demand by 15 to 25 percent. This has been the history of other
metals, and it is expected for titanium as well. With increased supply
relative to demand, the price of titanium products can be expected to
drop in the short term, perhaps as much as 25 percent, and thus would be
followed by increased prices along with the general course of commodity
price variation with inflation.
The violent f fluctuations in growth experienced during titanium' s
f irst 30 years will diminish considerably during the next 20 years. The
maturing of the industry with increased commercial and civilian markets,
and the possible inauguration of a strategic stockpile purchase program
(not an economic stockpile, see Chapter 11) might smooth out production
spikes of both sponge and mill products and counteract demand
f fluctuations over the next two decades.
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REFERENCES
AVERY, W. H., Director of Ocean Energy Programs, Applied Physics
Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, Maryland, Private
Communication, July 1981.
AVERY, W. H., OTEC Methanol, APL Quarterly Report, October-December
1981, 9-10.
DUNBAR, L. E., Potential for OTEC in Developing Nations, 8th Ocean
Energy Conference, Washington, DC, June 1981.
JAEFEE, R. I., An Overview on Titanium Development and Application,
Titanium ~ 80 Science and Technology, Proceedings of the Fourth
International Conference on Titanium, Kyoto, Japan, May 19-22, 1980
(Also The Metallurgical Society of AIME, Warrendale, Pennsylvania,
1980) .
KANE, R. L. 1981. Presentation before NMAB Titanium Availability
Panel , Titanium Industrie s Corp., Fairf ie 1 d , New Jersey , March 1981.
Lynd, L. E. 1980. Titanium. Mineral Facts and Problems,
Bulletin 671. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of the Interior
1980.
MANLEY, R., J. Bluestein and E. J. Francis: An Estimate of OTEC Costs,
Market Potential, and Proof-of-Concept Vessel Financing, AIAA 2nd
Terrestrial Energy Systems Conference, December 1-3, 1981, Colorado
Springs, Colorado ~ 13 pp .
NAEF , F . H.: S tatement on December 1981 EPRI Journal Article on OTEC ,
Feb. 16 , 1982, In Letter From F. H. Naef, President of the Ocean
Energy Council, to F. L. Culler, President of EPRI, Feb. 7, 1982 .
OWENS, W. L. and L. C. Trimble: Mini-OTEC Operational Results,
Lockheed Report, Lockheed Corporation, Los Angeles, California 1980.
RICHARDS, D., Investigation of OTEC-A~nnonia as an Alternative Fuel
APL Quarterly Report, October-December 1981, 15-20.
Williams, S. C. 1965. Report on Titanium, The Ninth Major Industrial
Metal. Research Report Series A-6. New York: Brundage, Story, and
Rose .
Representative terms from entire chapter:
mill products
