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Strategy for the Detection Once Stucly of Other Planetary Systems and Extasolar Planetary Materials: 1990-2000 Committee on Planetary and Lunar Exploration Space Studies Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington D.C. 1990

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of dis- . , , . ~ ~ tinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identity issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized lay the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of soence and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined lay the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing senaces to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Mediane. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This study was supported by Contract NASW-3482 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 89 64173 International Standard Booic Number 0-309~4193-7 Copies of the summary of this report, and of the full report itself, are available from: Space Studies Board National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Ubshington, DC 21)418 Additional copies of the full report are available for sale from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 S093 Printed in the United States of America First Printing, November 1990 Second Printing, March 1991 Third Printing, June 1991 Fourth Printing, No~crnber 1991 Fifth Printing, March 1992

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COMMITTEE ON PI~ETARY AND LUNAR EXPLORATION LarIy W. Esposito, University of Colorado, Chapman Robert O. Pepin, University of Minnesota (Chairman, 7185-6/88) Peter H. Bodenheimer,* University of California at Santa Cruz Alan P. Boss, Carnegie Institution of Washington Robert ~ Brown,* Space Telescope Science Institute Donald E. Brownlee,* University of Washington Andrew F. Cheng, Johns Hopkins Un~versipr Anita L. Cochran, University of Texas at Austin Paul D. Feldman,* Johns Hopkins University Robert D. Gehrz,* University of Minnesota William K Hartmann,$ Planetary Science Institute I arry ~ Haskin,* Washington University Bruce M. Jakosky,* University of Colorado Luc~r-Ann McFadden, University of California at San Diego Christopher P. McKay, NASA Ames Research Center William B. McKinnon,* Washington University H. Warren Moos,$ Johns Hopldns Umversi~ Duane O. Muhleman, California Institute of Technology Philip D. Nicholson,* Cornell University Norman R Pace, Indiana University Carte M. Pieters,* Brown University Graham Ryder, Lunar and Planetary Institute Paul D. Spudis, Lunar and Planetary Institute Peter H. Stone, Massachusetts Institute of Technology David ~ Strangway,* University of British Columbia G. Leonard Tyler,* Stanford University Fred L. Whipple,* Center for Astrophysics Yuk L. Yung,* California Institute of Technology Richard W. Zurek Jet Propulsion Laboratory Staff Paul F. Uhlir, Senior Program Officer Anne Lo Pond, Secretary Altoria L. Bell, Secretary *Former committee member who participated in writing or reviewing this report. . .. 111

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SPACE STUDIES BOARD Louis J. Lanzerotti, AT&T Bell Laboratories, Chapman Philip Abelson, American Association for the Advancement of Science Joseph ~ Bunts, Cornell University John R. Carruthers, INTEL Andrea K Dupree, Center for Astrophysics John ~ Dutton, Pennsylvania State University Larry W. Esposito, University of Colorado James P. Ferns, Renssalear Polytechnic Institute Herbert Friedman, Naval Research Laboratory (retired) Richard L. Garwin, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center Riccardo Giacconi, Space Telescope Science Institute Noel W. Hinners, Martin Marietta Corporation James R. Houck Cornell University David ~ Landgrebe, Purdue University Elliott C. Levinthal, Stanford University William J. Merrell, Jr., Texas A&M University Richard K Moore, University of Kansas Robert H. Moser, NutraSweet Corporation Norman F. Ness, Bartol Research Institute Marcia Neugebauer, Jet Propulsion Laboratory Sally K Ride, University of California at San Diego Robert F. Sekerka, Carnegie Mellon University Mark Settle, ARCO Oil and Gas Company L. Dennis Smith, University of California at Irvine Byron D. Tapley, University of Texas at Austin Er Otto Albertus D. Welliver, The Boeing Company (Chairman, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, National Academy of Engineering) Staff Richard C. Hart, Acting Staff Director 1V

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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPI,ICATIONS* Norman Hackerman, Robert ~ Welch Foundation, Chairman Peter J. Bickel, University of California, Berkeley George F. Carrier, Harvard University Herbert D. Doan, The Dow Chemical Company (retired) Dean E. Eastman, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center Make Anne Fox, University of Texas Phillip ~ Griffiths, Duke University Neal F. Lane, Rice University Robert W. Lucly, AT & T Bell Laboratories Christopher F. McKee, University of Californua at Berkeley Richard S. Nicholson, American Association for the Advancement of Science Jeremiah P. Ostriker, Princeton University Observatory Alan Schnesheim, Argonne National Laboratory Roy F. Schwitters, Superconducting Super Collider Laboratory Kenneth G. Wilson, Ohio State Un~versi~ Norman Metzger, Executive Director The project that is the subject of this report was initiated under the predecessor group of the Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications, which was the Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources, whose memben are listed in Appendix B.

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION Premises of this Report, 7 Overview and Purview, 9 Nomenclature, 13 2 BASIC SCIENTIFIC GOALS 3 PRESET UNDERSTANDING OF THE ORIGIN OF PLANETARY SYSTEMS Introduction, 21 Star Formation, 23 Properties of the Nebular Disk, 26 The Evolution of the Central Star, 29 Formation of the Planets, 30 4 OBSERVATIONS OF EXrRASOLAR PLANETARY AND PROTOPLANETARY MATERIAL Introduction, 34 Material Associated with Protostars and Pre-Main-Sequence Stars, 35 Gas and Dust Disks Around Main-Sequence Stars, 38 Substellar Objects, 40 Circumstellar Dust, 41 . . V11 1 s 18 21 34

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OBSERVATIONAL REQUIREMENTS FOR IDENTIFICATION OF EXTRASOLAR-SYSTEM PLANETS 44 Observational History, 44 Direct Detection, 45 Indirect Detection, 48 Evaluation of Proposed Indirect Techniques, 51 Astrometric Telescope Facility, 51 Doppler Spectroscopic Planet Searches, 53 Photometric Planet Searches, 54 Future ObseIving Systems, 55 Recommendations Regarding Techniques for Planet Searches, 55 6 FUTURE INVESTIGATIONS OF PRECURSOR PLANETARY SYSTEMS Dust-Related Astrophysical Studies, 58 Laboratory Study of Interstellar Materials, 59 Protostellar Observations, 62 Observation of Pre-Main-Sequence Stars, 63 Spectroscopic Studies of Extrasolar-System Planets and Preplaneta~y Materials, 65 Summary Recommendations, 66 7 RELATION TO OTHER ASTRONOMICAL AND ASTROPHYSICAL STUDIES Fundamental Properties of Stars in the Solar Neighborhood, 67 Properties of Star-Forming Regions, 69 TheoIy of Stellar Evolution, 70 Disks in Astrophysics, 71 Problems in Galactic Structure, 72 Implications Regarding the Search for Life, 73 g RECOMMENDATIONS Recommended Program, 75 Scientific Objectives, 76 Measurement Requirements, 78 Strategy and Implementation, 80 APPENDIX A: THE LARGE STAR SAMPLE REQUIRED FOR A PHOTOMETRIC PLANETARY SEARCH 57 67 75 83 APPENDIX B: LIST OF MEMBERS, COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND RESOURCES 86 .. . V111