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Estimating Losses From Future Earthquakes Panel Report Panel on Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology Committee on Earthquake Engineering Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1989

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed bY a croup other than the authors according to - procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to Odorize the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press ~ president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter- of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This study was supported by the Federal Emergency Management Agency under contract No. EMW-86-G-2366 to the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this report are those of the committee and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Limited number of copies available without charge from: Committee on Earthquake Engineering Division of Natural Hazard Mitigation 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 202/334-3312 Printed in the United States of America

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CO~ITTE10 ON EAl~HQUAllE ENGINEERING (1985-1988) GEORGE W. HOUSNER, Chairman, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena CHRISTOPHER ARNOLD, Building Systems Development, Inc., San Mateo, California JAMES E. BEAVERS, Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Oak Ridge, Tennessee RAY CLOUGH, Department of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley C. B. GROUSE, The Earth Technology Corporation, Long Beach, California RICHARD DOBRY, Department of Civil Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York WILLIAM J. HALL, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign ROBERT D. HANSON, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor JOHN LOSS, School of Architecture, University of Maryland College Park FRANK E. MCCLURE, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley JOANNE NIGG, Center for Public Affairs, Arizona State University, Tempe OTTO W. NUTTLl, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department, St. Loum University, Missouri ROBERT V. WHITMAN, Department of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge L' [iamon Representatives WILLIAM H. ALLERTON, Division of Inspections, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C. WILLIAM A. ANDERSON, Program Director, Division of Critical Engineering Systems, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. C. CHESTER BIGEI`OW, Division of Advanced Technology Development, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. FRED COLE, Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. -

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JAMES COOPER, Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C. JAMES F. COSTELLO, Division of Engineering Technology, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C. CHARLES CULVER, Center for Building Technology, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, Maryland RICHARD F. DAVIDSON, Geotechnical Branch, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Department of the Army, Washington, D.C. A. J. EGGENBERGER, Program Director, Division of Critical Engineering Systems, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. G. ROBERT FULLER, Structural Engineering Division, Offlce-of Architecture and Engineering Standards, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Washington, D.C. WALTER W. HAYS, Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia JAMES R. HILL, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation Program, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. PAUL KRUMPE, Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. EDGAR V. LEYENDECKER, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver Colorado RICHARD D. MCCONNELL, Veterans Administration, Washington, D.C. JANINA Z. MIRSKI, Structural Division, Veterans Administration, Washington, D.C. UGO MORELLl, Office of Natural and Technological Hazards, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C. ROBERT NICHOI`SON, Federal Highway Administration, McLean, Virginia MIKE REED, Strategic Structures Branch, Defense Nuclear Agency, Washington, D.C. CHARLES F. SCHEFFEY, Federal Highway Administration Washington, D.C. JOSEPH TYRELL, Naval Facilities Engineering Command, U.S. Department of the Navy, Alexandria, Virginia J. LAWRENCE VON THUN, Bureau of Reclamation, Department of the Interior, Denver SPENCER WU, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, U.S. Department of the Air Force, Washington, D.C. ,, 1' 1V

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ARTHUR ZEIZEL, Office of Natural and Technological Hazards, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C. Staff Riley M. Chung, Comrn~ttee Director 0. Allen Israelsen, Consultant Barbara J. Rice, Consultant Editor Lally Anne Anderson, Administrative Secretary Norma A. Giron, Secretary Denise A. Grady, Secretary v

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PANEL ON 1:ARTEQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY ROBERT V. WHITMAN, Chairman, Department of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge CHRISTOPHER ARNOLD, Building Systems Development, Inc., San Mateo, California RICHARDS. BOlSVERT, Department of Agricultural Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York GILBERT A. BOLLINGER, Department of Geological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg' Virginia HENRY J. DEGENKOLB, H. J. Degenkolb Associates, San Erancisco, California EDWARD S. FRATTO, Massachusetts Civil Defense Agency and Office of Emergency Preparedness, Framingharn ROBERT P. KENNEDY, Consultant, Yorba Linda, California FRANK E. MCCLURE, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley ROBIN K. MCGUIRE, Risk Engineering, Inc., Golden, Colorado ALVIN MUSHKATEL, School of Public Affairs, Arizona State University, Tempe ROBERT B. RIGNEY, RedIands, California JEAN B. SAVY, Geosciences Group, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, Livermore, California DANIE:LE VENEZ1ANO, Department of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge DELBERT B. WARD, Architect, Salt Lake City, Utah Consultants GREGORY ANDRANOVICH, Cosmos Corporation. Washington, D.C. ROBERT REITHERMAN, The Reitherman Company, Half Moon Bay, California Ex Officio Member GEORGE W. HOUSNER, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena V1

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Project Officer Prom Sponsoring Agency, FEMA ARTHUR 3. ZEIZEL, Office of Natural and Technological Hazards, State and Local Programs and Support, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C. Liaison Representatives WILLIAM A. ANDERSON, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. CHARLES CULVER, Center for Building Technology, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, Maryland A. J. EGGENBERGER, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. WALTER HAYS, Once of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia GARY JOHNSON, Earthquakes and Natural Hazards Division, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C. RICHARD KRIMM, Office of Natural and Technological Hazards, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C. ROBERT WILSON, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C. V11

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Preface A key question that must be addressed in earthquake hazard reduction is: How much loss might a city or region experience from future earthquakes? The destructiveness of an earthquake depends on its size, its proximity, and the area's state of preparation. When all three of these elements are adverse they combine to produce a great disaster. Some of these great disasters have permanently impressed themselves upon the public consciousness Lisbon, 1755; San Francisco, 1906; Messina, 1908; Tokyo, 1923; Alaska, 1964; Mexico City, 1985; and Armenian S.S.R., 1988. Other earthquake disasters with thousands of deaths and extensive property damage did not receive such widespread publicity and are now remembered chiefly by the local inhabitants. Examples of these are San Juan, Argentina, 1944; Agadir, Morocco, 1960; Skopje, Yugoslavia, 1963; and Tangshan, China, 1976. A significant feature of each of the more modern events is that the disaster focused the attention of the government and the general public on the problem of earthquake hazard and led to the adoption of appropriate seismic engineering requirements in building codes to better prepare these cities for future earthquakes. It would, of course, have been better if these cities had assessed the earthquake hazard and taken loss reduction measures before the event. According to a 1983 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) report, in the United States as many as 70 million people in 1X

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39 states face significant risk from earthquakes and secondary haz- ards, such as earthquake-triggered landslides. The recent relatively modest Whittier Narrows, California earthquake, with a magnitude of 5.9 and less than 5 seconds of ground shaking, resulted in prop- erty damage exceeding $350 million. Loss of life from a single major earthquake, such as those that have occurred in California in the last 150 years, could exceed 20,000, and economic losses could to- tal more than $60 billion. Moreover, many other cities or regions are vulnerable to earthquake threat: Seattle, Washington; Memphis, Tennessee; Charleston, South Carolina; and Boston, Massachusetts. These places are less prepared to withstand earthquake hazards than is California and they would experience devastating consequences if a major earthquake were to occur. The enactment in 1977 of the National Earthquake Hazards Re- duction Act offered the nation for the first time a substantial and organized effort to address the nation's earthquake hazard m~tiga- tion issues. Four principal federal agencies (FEMA, U.S. Geological Survey, National Science Foundation, and National Bureau of Stan- dards), in partnership with state and local governments and also with the private sector, are working on several aspects of earthquake haz- ards: prediction, risk assessment, land-use planning, better building design and construction of earthquake-resistant buildings, promotion of better building codes, regional economic impact assessment, emer- gency planning and management, training and education programs, and regional workshops anned at better technology transfer. Much information has been developed from the national program in the past 10 years. Now FEMA, working with city, county, and state governments, is preparing guidelines on how to assess the earthquake hazard and how to take appropriate steps to counter it. Major questions facing a city, for example, are: What is the maximum disaster that might be reasonably thought to happen? and What is the maximum probable earthquake disaster that has a significant probability of occurring during the time span of a generation? Assessing potential earthquake losses is a difficult but essential task to stimulate and guide earthquake Instigation actions. A number of methods have been used for making estimates of future earthquake losses, and there are significant inconsistencies among them. At the request of FEMA, the Committee on Earthquake Engineering undertook the present study. It is intended to be a consensus set of guidelines for a recommended loss estimation methodology. It is not possible, at present, to predict accurately when and x

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where major earthquakes will occur, how many people will die or be injured, and what the damaging effect will be on the wide variety of buildings of different ages and conditions. However, it is possible to make approximate estunates that will indicate the nature and magnitude of the problem faced by a city or region. The Pane! on Earthquake Loss Estunation Methodology has prepared this report to serve as a guide for those undertaking to estimate earthquake losses. Although the material in the report represents a consensus, it is likely that some differences in the opinions of experts on loss estimation have not yet been reconciled. The panel has been aided greatly in its work by many people and organizations. In the acknowledgments that follow some of the contributors to the effort are briefly mentioned. For the Committee on Earthquake Engineering, ~ express gratitude for this help. For myself, I wish to thank Robert Whitman, panel chairman, all the panel members, the liaison representatives from federal agencies, the staff of the National Research Council, the technical consultants, and others who have inspired and facilitated this task. George W. Housner, Chairman Comrn~ttee on Earthquake Engineering X1

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Acknowledgments The committee wishes to acknowledge the valuable support of Robert Reitherman, who served as technical consultant to this panel study. It also wishes to thank the following individuals for their assistance in providing materials for the study and in critically re- viewing and suggesting revisions to the pane] report: S. T. AIger- missen, Walter W. Hays, and Gerald F. Wieczorek, U.S. Geological Survey; Neville Donovan, Dames & Moore; Bruce Douglas, Uni- versity of Nevada; Richard Emner, Bay Area Regional Earthquake Preparedness Project; Peter May, University of Washington, Seat- tie; Christopher Rojahn, Applied Technology Council; and David Schodek, Harvard University. In particular the committee wishes to thank Arthur Zeizel, project officer, whose agency, the Federal Emer- gency Management Agency, sponsored the study, for his management coordination and work with the panel; the COSMOS Corporation, which assisted in developing a survey instrument for the user needs workshop; and the National Research Council staff in completing this pane! study. . X11

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION.. Basic Method, 11 Considerations of Uncertainty, 16 2 USER NEEDS. Conflicts, 18 Specific Suggestions, 19 1 .6 ..... 17 3 GROUND-SHAKING HAZARD 20 Deterministic Methods, 20 Probabilistic Methods, 22 Describing Intensity of Ground Motion, 24 Effects of Local Site Conditions, 25 4 BUILDING DAMAGE AND LOSSES......................... Classification of Buildings, 26 Inventory, 28 Motion-Damage Relationships, 33 Losses Associated With Buildings, 40 5 COLLATERAL HAZARDS ................................... Fault Rupture, 46 Landslides and Liquefaction, 46 . X111 26 45

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Tsunamis, 50 Seiches, 50 6 DAMAGE AND LOSSES TO SPECIAL FACILITIES AND URBAN SYSTEMS e.e.~ e eee eeee.~ e ~ Lifelines, 53 Facilities With Essential Emergency Functions, 56 Facilities With a Potential for Large Loss, 59 7 INDIRECT LOSSES e e e.e ee Fire, 61 Release of Hazardous Materials, 62 Economic Impacts, 63 8 RAPID POSTEARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATES.. 9 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS...-- Summary Guidelines for Multipurpose, Large-Scale Earthquake Loss Estimates, 66 Recommendations for Research and Development, 74 53 61 ........ 64 REFERENCES XIV 66 78

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Panel Report

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~~ ~~ ~ - ~: - : - ~ - Aerial view of a portion of the city of Tangshan, China after the earthquake of July 28, 1976 (M 7.83. The causative fault passed under the city, which had little resistance to earthquakes. This combination led to almost total destruction and very large 1055 of life. Photo courtesy of G. Housncr.