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Appendix B
A Selective Literature Review on the
Human Sources of
Global Environmental Change
by Vicki Norberg-Bohm
This appendix, written in preparation for the Workshop on the Human
Interactions of Global Change, briefly reviews scholarship in the two areas
identified by the U.S. Committee on Global Change as initial priorities for
research into the human interactions with global change: land use changes
and industrial metabolism. Although an enormous number of relevant stud-
ies have been done, it is not within the scope of this document to provide a
thorough review of all this work. This appendix strives to be illustrative
rather than exhaustive. In general, only more recent works are discussed,
and the emphasis is descriptive rather than critical. The goal of this review
is to provide a starting point for determining where an extension of current
research directions and methods will provide usable knowledge for global
change studies, and where (and what) new directions or methods are needed.
As was the case in the main body of this report, this literature review
uses the categories of data, process, and synthesis as an organizing frame-
work. Section 1, integrative modeling studies, highlights examples of research
that has developed a synthetic framework or model capable of generating
consistent scenarios of global environmental change. Section 2 describes
studies on industrial transformations of material and energy, while section 3
describes studies on land use transformations. The main focus in these two
sections is on process studies. Section 4 provides a discussion of several
data bases that have been developed for global change studies. Finally,
because many of the models depend on population estimates, section 5
provides a review of global population models.
This review is organized around illustrative major studies, or groups of
studies of a similar nature. Because most studies do not singularly contrib-
ute only to data, process, or synthesis, each study (or group of studies) is
reviewed for the contribution it makes in each of these three general areas.
246
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APPENDIX B
247
In some cases, the category "synthesis" is not included because the study
being reviewed makes no major contribution to synthesis, as the term has
been narrowly defined for the purposes of this document.
1 INTEGRATIVE MODELING
The studies highlighted in this section are the most ambitious examples
of research that has developed a synthetic framework or model capable of
generating scenarios of the human activities driving global environmental
change. The output from these models describes the changes in emissions
or in physical and biological variables (i.e., environmental transformations)
caused by alternative development paths.
1.1 Impacts of World Development on Selected Charactensi`cs of the Atmosphere:
An Integrative Approach (Darmstadter et al., 1987)
This study focuses on"development, atmospheric emissions associated
with development, and atmospheric impacts caused by emissions." It was
an interdisciplinary collaborative effort that grew out of discussions at a
conference sponsored by the Sustainable Development of the Biosphere
Program at the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA).
In addition to its synthetic approach, its major contribution is further development
and implementation of a qualitative methodology for ranking the relative
contribution from various sources, and for historical assessments of fluxes
of key chemicals. The categories of atmospheric impact that it examines
are photochemical smog, precipitation acidity, atmospheric corrosion, and
stratospheric ozone depletion.
Data. The study constructed a data base of emissions of CH4, NOR, SON, HC1,
and sea salt on a regional basis, and of CH4, CO, NO,,, N2O, and CFCs on a
global basis. Data is for the years 1800 to 1980, every 30 years, excluding
1830. In some instances, no data was available for the nineteenth century.
Sources of emissions are metallurgical and certain other industrial operations,
coal production and use, petroleum production and use, biomass combustion,
and emissions from vegetation and soils. Regions are the Northeastern
United States, Europe, the Gangetic Plain of India, and the Amazonian
basin of Brazil.
The study contributes new data in historical estimates of land in wet rice
cultivation and historical emissions from combustion; the flaring of natural
gas; and smelters, cokers, and other industrial processes.
Process. This study performs a historical reconstruction of industrial prac-
tices and technologies to determine emissions from industry and energy
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248
APPENDIX B
sources. See section on "Industrial Metabolism" in chapter 4 for a descrip-
tion of this materials balance approach. Future demand is based on IIASA
"conventional wisdom" reference scenarios (Anderberg, 1989~. Two sce-
narios were examined: one assumed constant emission coefficients, the
other a 1 percent yearly rate of decline in emission coefficients (i.e., no
technological change and constant rates of change).
Synthesis. This study is synthetic in three respects: (1) It combines an
analysis of historical emission coefficients with data on levels of human
activity to develop a historical data base of emissions. (2) It combines
information on emission factors with scenarios of future development to
develop qualitative assessments of future environmental flows and thus the
degree of environmental degradation. (3) It includes emissions from both
industry and land use in its analysis.
1.2 Long-Term Global Energy and CO2 Model (Edmonds and Reilly, 1983)
A model, the Institute for Energy Analysis of Oak Ridge Associated
Universities model, was developed at Oak Ridge Associated Universities
for the U.S. Department of Energy to examine future scenarios of CO2
emissions. "The long-term, global energy-CO2 model was developed to
provide a consistent and conditional representation of economic, demographic
and energy interactions (Edmonds and Reilly, 1983~."
Although this model looks only at emissions from fossil fuel use, it is a
prime example of synthesis in that it combines energy supply and demand
scenarios (driving forces include economic and demographic factors) with
CO2 emission factors derived from an understanding of various combustion
processes to produce estimates of CO2 emissions. The end product is a model
that can be used to analyze future scenarios of CO2 emissions.
This model has been used extensively in the analysis of future CO2 emissions.
Edmonds and Reilly (1983) and Mintzer (1987) used this model for evaluating
global emissions for various types of policy intervention. Chandler (1988)
used the model for evaluating policy options for reducing CO2 emissions and
achieving economic development goals for China. The authors of an EPA
study, Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate (Lashoff and Tirpak,
1989), used this model as a starting point from which they made significant
modifications.
A discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of using this model is
found in an interchange between Keepin (1988) and Edmonds (1988~-.
Data. This study uses emission coefficients and elasticities calculated elsewhere.
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APPENDIX B
249
Process. This is a partial equilibrium model. Critical demand assumptions
include population, labor productivity, gross national product growth rates,
an energy technology parameter that specifies the rate of change in energy
productivity, and price and income elasticities. Critical supply assumptions
include resource constraints and breakthrough costs of new technologies.
Demand in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Develop-
ment is disaggregated into three economic sectors: residential/commercial,
transport, and industrial. All other regions are modeled as a single sector.
The model makes projections to the year 2100 in 25-year intervals. The
globe is divided into nine regions. The model includes six primary fuel
sources and four secondary fuel sources, as well as biomass, shale oil, and
synfuels. The outputs of the model include primary and secondary fuel
mixes; a variety of trade, price, and development indicators; and CO2 emissions.
Synthesis. This model combines energy supply and demand (driving forces
include economic and demographic factors) with CO2 emission factors derived
from an understanding of various combustion processes to produce estimates
of CO2 emissions. The model is constructed to facilitate the examination of
alternative future energy paths based on different assumptions about prices,
population, economic growth, technological change, and supply constraints.
1.3 Policy Optionsfor Stabilizing Global Climate, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (Lashof and Tirpak, 1989)
This report was written in response to a congressional request to examine
"policy options that if implemented would stabilize current levels of atmo-
spheric greenhouse gas concentrations." One of the major goals of the
study was "to develop an integrated analytical framework to study how
different assumptions about the global economy and the climate system
could influence future greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperatures."
Data. This study has compiled the best available estimates of current emis-
sions of all greenhouse gases. In a few cases, new data bases were developed,
such as an energy end use data base (Mintzer, 1988, for industrialized countnes;
Sathaye et al., 198S, for developing countries).
Process. This study has compiled the best available estimates of emission
coefficients for all greenhouse gases. Future activity levels are determined
by population growth, economic development, and technological change.
The study develops four scenarios of the future. These are based on two
different patterns of economic development and technological change, each
examined with and without policy intervention to stabilize climate change.
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APPENDIX B
A sensitivity analysis is performed on values for the key variables in these
scenarios.
Assumptions regarding population growth rates, economic growth rates,
and oil prices are developed as follows: Population estimates were devel-
oped from Zachariah and Vu (1988) of the World Bank and from the U.S.
Bureau of the Census (1987~. The primary source for economic growth
rates was the World Bank (1987~. Oil prices were taken from the U.S. DOE
(1988~.
Synthesis. The study combines models of activity levels with information
on emission coefficients to develop an analytical framework that relates the
underlying forces of population, economic development, and technological
change to the emissions of all the important greenhouse gases. The study
uses several detailed models of individual components to inform this gen-
eral framework.
Four modules are used to calculate emissions. Attention was paid to
developing consistent scenarios, but there are no explicit feedbacks between
modules. The four modules are briefly described below. A more detailed
description can be found in the appendix of the EPA report (Lashof and
Tirpak, 1989~.
1. The energy module is based on a considerably modified Edmonds-
Reilly model (developed by ICF) and two end use studies (Mintzer, 1988,
for industrialized countries; Sathaye et al., 1988, for developing countries).
The end use studies are used to project demand in the year 2025. This
estimated demand in turn is used to anchor the demand estimates that are
calculated for other years using the modified Edmonds-Reilly model.
2. The industry module is based largely on the EPA's CFC model (U.S.
EPA, 1988a). Non-CFC industry emissions (from landfills and cement
manufacture) are calculated as simple estimates of population and per capita
Income.
3. The agriculture module uses the IIASA/IOWA Basic Linked System
to calculate agricultural production and fertilizer use. This model was first
developed at IIASA's Food and Agriculture Program. It was modified by
the Center for Agriculture and Rural Development at Iowa State University
to extend the time horizon to the year 2050 (Frohberg and Van de Kamp,
1988; Fisher et al., 1988~. Emission coefficients are derived from the literature.
4. The land use and natural source module uses the terrestrial carbon
model developed at the Woods Hole Marine Biological Laboratory to calcu-
late CO2 emission factors for land use changes. CO and N2O emissions are
scaled based on CO2 emissions. Natural emissions (from forest fires, wetlands,
soils, oceans, and fresh water) are based on values from the literature and
generally held constant.
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APPENDIX B
251
The study uses two concentration modules to calculate atmospheric con-
centrations and temperature increases based on scenarios of emissions.
1.4 Future Environments for Europe: Some Implications of Alternative
Development Paths (Stigliani et al., 1989a,b)
This study is a regional case study sponsored by the Sustainable Devel-
opment of the Biosphere Program at IIASA. `'The purpose of this study is
to provide new insights into the long-term management of the European
environment during an era of fundamental transitions in technologies, climate,
and scale of effects." The specific objectives of the study include developing
a method for examining regional environmental problems 40 years into the
future, learning about the major environmental problems that would be facing
Europe in this time frame, and developing tools to improve the management
of the environment in the long term. The study considers land use transformations
and industry and energy transformations in its assessment.
Data. The study uses current data (1980) on activity levels for population,
energy, industry and transportation, agriculture, and forestry. These provide
the starting point for scenario development.
Process. The study constructs several socio-economic development paths
(scenarios of the future) for Europe. These paths describe future trends in
population, energy, industry and transportation, agriculture, and forestry.
These trends in turn cause changes in the environment. The environmental
components analyzed include climate, hydrology, atmospheric pollution and
regional acidification, soil quality, water quality, biota, and land use.
This study develops a scenario based on conventional wisdom and sev-
eral based on not impossible alternatives to the most likely scenario. These
alternatives are based on surprises, or turning points from the conventional
wisdom scenario. The study uses a qualitative framework similar to that
used in the Darmstadter et al. (1987) study for presenting the seriousness of
the environmental consequences of four different development paths.
Synthesis. The socio-economic scenarios are used to drive development.
The study describes changes in the environment based on these scenarios.
1.5 Project Proposal: Strategies for Environmentally Sound Development:
An Input-Output Analysis (Duchin, l989c)
This describes a project that was recently begun at the Institute for Eco-
nomic Analysis at New York University. "The objective of the proposed
study is to identify and evaluate concrete, consistent, economically feasible
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252
APPENDIX B
strategies for environmentally sound development, that is, to examine alter-
native approaches to reducing poverty over the next 50 years while also
reducing global pollution." The resulting analysis will be based on a world
input-output model.
The analysis will incorporate detailed technical process information and
provide quantities and geographic distribution of pollutant emissions under
various scenarios as one of its outputs.
2 INDUSTRIAL METABOLISM: TRANSFORMATION OF MATERIALS
AND ENERGY
Industrial metabolism can be defined as the production and consumption
processes of industrial society. These processes include extraction, processing,
refining, use, and dispersion of fossil fuels and minerals. These processes
transform materials and energy into emissions to the environment and are
thus a major source of global environmental change in industrialized societ-
ies. One of the goals of this report is to define research initiatives that will
improve understanding of how the historical and current industrial metabo-
lism have caused and are causing environmental change. Equally important
is gaining an understanding of the dynamics of industrial metabolisms: what
are the factors causing changes, how have they changed over time, and what
are possible future industrial metabolisms.
This section is divided into four subsections: materials balance studies,
trends in material and energy intensity, long wave studies, and global energy
modeling.
2.1 Materials Balance Studies
The materials balance approach is based on the concept of conservation
of mass (i.e., the first law of thermodynamics). It tracks the use of materi-
als and energy from "cradle to grave." In other words, it follows them from
extraction through various transformation processes to disposal and their
final environmental destination. It is a tool that allows economic data to be
used in conjunction with technical information on industrial processes to
describe chemical flows to the environment. For a discussion of this methodology
see Ayres (1989) and Ayres et al. (1989~.
Some important conclusions that have been drawn from applying this
type of analysis are as follows: (1) Major sources of environmental pollutants
have been shifting from production to consumption processes. (2) Large
numbers of materials uses are inherently dissipative, spreading widely in
the environment.
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APPENDIX B
253
2.1.1 The Hudson-Raritan Study (Ayres et al., 1988; Ayres and Rod, 1986)
This is the most far reaching study of this type. It provides a historical
reconstruction of major pollutant levels in the Hudson-Raritan Basin from
1880-1980. The methodology was a materials balance approach. The ma-
jor contribution of this work is in the framework it provides for developing
data of pollutant loadings using process information and economic data.
Data. This study provides current and historical (1880-1980) pollutant
loading data for the Hudson-Raritan river basin for heavy metals (silver,
arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, mercury, lead, and zinc), petroleum
and coal, and for chemicals and other wastes (chlorinated pesticides, chlorinated
herbicides, chlorinated phenols, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, oil and
grease, carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus).
Process. This study developed process-product flows for heavy metals that
describe the location and form from extraction through consumer end use to
the disposal of these materials. It used historical data of how processes
changed over time to determine the level of different types of production
activities. It used emission coefficients from the literature on production
emissions. There is little information in He literature on consumption emissions;
thus the study used an ad hoc choice of consumption emission coefficients.
The runoff estimation model is a modified version of that developed by
Heany (Heany et al., 1976~.
Synthesis. This study implements the materials balance framework for one
region. It serves as an example of how data on pollutant loadings can be
developed using process information and economic data.
2.1.2 Other Studies
Several other studies have examined the processes of transformation of
materials and energy and developed data on emissions.
1. Impacts of World Development on Selected Characteristics of the
Atmosphere: An Integrative Approach (Darmstadter et al., 1987~. This
study provides a historical reconstruction of emissions of CO, SOL, N2O and
NO,,, and CH4 for the years 1880 to 1980 for four regions. For a more
detailed discussion of this study, see section on "Materials Balance Stud-
ies."
2. "Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuel Combustion: Trends, Resources,
and Technological Implications" (Rotty and Masters, 1985~. This study
develops global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion for the years
1860 to 1982.
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254
APPENDIX B
3. The Study of Chemical Pollution and Its Sources in Dutch Estuaries
and Coastal Regions, a Proposalfor a Collaborative Agreement (Straw, 1989)
will be using a materials balance framework. It is just beginning as a
collaborative project between The Netherlands' Ministry of Public Housing,
Physical Planning and Environment, The Netherlands' National Institute of
Public Health, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
An interesting feature of this study is the use of the RAINS model (developed
at IIASA to trace regional pollution for acid rain) to determine heavy metal
loadings from atmospheric releases.
2.2 Trends in Material Intensity and Energy Intensity
Material intensity is defined as the mass of a material per unit of GNP or
per capita. Similarly, energy intensity is defined as the energy per unit of
GNP or per capita. Energy intensity is also defined as the primary energy
per unit of useful energy or end use service. In sum, material intensity and
energy intensity are defined as the quantity of material or energy consumed
per unit of value created. Trends in material intensity and energy intensity
are determined by changes in the amount and types of goods and services
that are produced and consumed, the efficiency of energy and material use
in the production and consumption process, and the substitution of materials
within the same good (e.g., plastic instead of steel in automobiles). In other
words, these trends are determined by the structure of the economy, the
income level, and technology. The topic of whether the industrialized countries
are experiencing a decline in material intensity and energy intensity, a trend
called "dematerialization," is relevant to scenarios of future environmental
effects from industrialization.
This section reviews studies of material intensity and energy intensity
and studies of substitution of one material for another.
2.2.1 Materials, Affluence, and Industrial Energy Use (Williams et al., 1987)
This study focuses on the trends in the use of materials in the United
States. It concludes that there is indeed a trend toward dematerialization in
the United States.
Data. This study is based on about 100 years of data on prices and con-
sumption of steel, cement, paper, ammonia, chlorine, aluminum, and ethyl-
ene in the United States, in units of kilograms, as well as on data for low-
and intermediate-volume metals, including copper, lead, zinc, manganese,
chromium, nickel, tin, molybdenum, titanium, and tungsten.
Process. This study concludes that "the United States is passing the era of
materials-intensive production and beginning a new era of economic growth
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APPENDIX B
255
dominated by high-technology products having low materials content." De-
materialization is the result of a structural shift in the United States, which
is based on the level of income. Analyses of data show that reduced energy
use per unit GNP in the United States is half from structural changes and
half from energy efficiency improvements. The authors postulate three
stages and a bell curve for the materials use cycle. This has implications
not only for materials flows, but also for energy use. The result is that
industrial demand for energy may be zero growth or negative.
The maturing of basic materials use in the United States is attributed to
improvements in efficiency of materials use, substitution of cheaper materials
or materials with more desirable characteristics for traditional materials,
saturation of bulk markets for materials, and shifts in the preferences of
consumers at high income levels for goods and services that are less materials
intensive. Recycling can achieve greater market share as demand growth
for a material decreases.
This study examines in detail the trends in materials use for steel, ethyl-
ene and plastics, aluminum, pulp and paper, minor metals, and "new age"
materials.
2.2.2 "Dematerialization" (Herman et al., 1989)
This essay examines the question of whether dematerialization is occur-
ring, and what is a meaningful definition of dematerialization with regards
to the environment. The authors suggest defining dematerialization as "the
amount of waste generated per unit industrial product." Their goal is to
look at forces "beyond the obviously very powerful forces of economic and
population growth."
Data. The authors provide data that shows that solid waste streams from
consumers have been growing.
Process. The authors identify product life as a key factor in dematerializa-
tion and identify several product traits that are important in determining
product life, including quality, ease of manufacture, production cost, size
and complexity of the product, ease of repair or replacement, and size of
waste stream. They draw a distinction between the dematerialization of
production and consumption.
2.2.3 "Energy Use, Technological Change, and Productive Efficiency: An
Economic-Historical Interpretation" (Schurr, 1984)
The goal of this paper is to explain the simultaneous occurrence of rising
total productivity, low energy prices, and declining intensity of energy use.
This work builds upon, and updates, research originally reported in the
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256
APPENDIX B
1960 Resources for the Future book, Energy in the American Economy, by the
author and associates.
Data. This analysis is based on data of energy use, capital and labor inputs,
and productivity for the past century.
Process. The intensity of energy use has risen in relation to labor and
capital inputs, but has dropped in relationship to total output since 1920.
The explanation for this apparent paradox is based on an energy-technol-
ogy-productivity connection thesis. The characteristics of energy supply
low cost, abundance, and enhanced flexibility in use-sets the stage for
discovery, which quickens the pace of technical advance. This is reflected
in labor and multifactor productivity increases, which lead to increases in
total output.
2.2.4 Energy for a Sustainable World (Goldemberg et al., 1987, 1988)
This work presents the findings of the End Use Global Energy Project, a
study by an international team of researchers. It analyzes energy demand
from an end use perspective, with a focus on energy efficiency improvements
that are technically possible using commercially available or near-commercial
technologies. The results of this study are presented in two forms: a report
containing the major findings (Goldemberg et al., 1987) and a book presenting
the models and data in greater detail (Goldemberg et al., 1988~.
Data. This study presents data on trends in energy and material intensity.
It includes data on energy consumption disaggregated by sector, i.e. commercial,
residential, transportation, and industry. Within these sectors, there is great
detail on specific end uses. The study also presents large amounts of tech-
nical information on the energy efficiency of equipment, appliances, automobiles
and other modes of transportation, and industrial processes. This work
includes detailed case studies of the United States, Sweden, India, and Brazil.
Process. An examination of energy use in the industrialized countries leads
to the conclusion that there are structural economic shifts toward less energy-
intensive activities, and that there is great potential for more efficient energy
use. Future scenarios of energy use in the United States and Sweden are
presented. These scenarios are based on the saturation of the most energy
efficient technologies that are commercially available or near commercial.
For developing countries, they examine the energy requirements for meeting
basic human needs. Again, the most efficient commercially available tech-
nologies are applied.
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APPENDIX B
to this committee: land use transformations and industrial transformations
of materials and energy.
The data bases listed below are of two kinds: (1) data on levels of
human activity (e.g., deforestation) and (2) quantitative data on emissions
that are calculated based on the level of human activity and information on
emission factors (e.g., CO2 emissions from deforestation). A general
knowledge of a broad class of economic and social data bases is assumed
and thus not reviewed here.
Emissions of CH4, NOR, SO,,, HC1, and sea salt on a regional basis,
and CH4, CO, NO,, N2O, and CFCs on a global basis for the years 1800 to
1980, in 30-year intervals, excluding 1830 (Darmstadter et al., 19871. The
study contributes new data in historical estimates of land in wet rice culti-
vation, and for emissions from combustion, the flaring of natural gas, smelt-
ers, cokers, and other industrial processes. For a more in-depth review, see
section 2.1.2.
· Current (mean value for 1980 to 1986) and cumulative (for years 1860
to 1986) releases of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and biota for most
countries of the world (Subak, 1989~. Estimates for biota are "fairly crude"
because data on deforestation and biomass burning are not yet well docu-
mented.
· Annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, by country, for the years
1949 to 1986 (Marland et al., 1988~. Based on U.N. energy statistics.
· Annual global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion for the
years 1860 to 1982 (Rotty and Masters, 1985~.
· CO2 releases from land clearing for agricultural purposes, for the years
1860 to 1986 (Richards et al., 1983~.
· Energy consumption by end use sector for all countries (Mintzer, 1988,
for industrialized countries; Sathaye et al., 1988, for developing countries).
· Forest resources, and amount and rates of deforestation for the 1980s,
by country (IIED and WRI, 1987~. Data are based on the U.N. Food and
Agriculture Organization, the U.N. Economic Commission for Europe, and
country data sources.
· Forest resources and the rates of deforestation and forest degradation
for tropical countries (Myers, 1980, 1984~. For a review of this work, see
section 3.1.3.3.
· Data on production of halocarbons from 1960 to 1985 (U.S. EPA
1987; Hammit et al., 1986~.
Global anthropogenic emissions of trace metals to the atmosphere,
water, and soil (Nriagu and Pacyna, 1988~. Data on emission factors for
key anthropogenic processes.
Natural emissions of trace metals to the atmosphere and comparison
of natural and anthropogenic emissions to atmosphere (Nriagu, 1989~.
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APPENDIX B
5 GLOBAL POPULATION MODELS
275
In the models reviewed in the body of this report, population is always
specified exogenously. Population estimates are generally derived from one
of a few models, which will be described below. These models tend to have
similar estimates to the year 2025, with some divergence when projecting
further into the future. For a review of population models with a focus on
the ability of these models to illuminate relationships between development
and environment, see Toth et al. (1989~. For a critical review of global
population modeling, see Keyfitz (1981, 1982) and Lee (1989~.
The most widely used models for forecasting and scenario development
have much in common. The key parameters in population models are initial
population size and age-sex structure, fertility rates, mortality rates, and net
migration rates. Estimates of fertility rates are the greatest source of uncertainty
in these models. Determination of ache values for key parameters in population
models is based on one of two approaches: (1) trend extrapolation, modified
by expert judgment, or (2) assuming a date in the future when replacement-
level fertility will be reached, and using linear interpolation to determine
intervening rates. Both of these methods are based on expert judgment.
There is no clear theoretical explanation on which population models are
built.
In concluding his review, Lee (1989) emphasized the lack of consistent
theory behind long-term global population forecasts.
Current longrun population forecasts ignore economic, natural resource and envi-
ronmental constraints. Yet they assume that populations are even now converging
to stationarity at a global level about twice the current population. If the assumption
derives from a Malthusian orientation, it must be based on unexpressed arid, in this
context, unexamined views about future growth prospects and reproductive response
to economic or environmental change....
If, instead, population convergence to stationarity has been inferred from some
version of transition theory, such as modern socio-economic fertility models, then
again e forecasts rest on unexamined assumptions. They must assume that growth
and development will proceed along global mend patterns without encountering seri-
ous Malthusian constraints.... The assumption that the end point of the transition
is at replacement level fertility is supported neither by history nor by the logic of
relevant social theory.
A review of global population models (Toth et al., 1989) recommended
three models as most suitable for use in long-term, large-scale development-
environment studies:
1. World Population Prospects Estimates and Projections as Assessed in
1982 United Nations, 1985~.
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276
APPENDIX B
2. "Global Population (1975-2075~" and "Labor Force (1975-2050~"
(Keyfitz et al., 1983~.
3. World Development Report 1984, World Population Projections 1984
(World Bank, 1984~.
NOTES
1. For current information on sources of data describing greenhouse gas
emission levels, and of human activities that cause greenhouse gas emissions,
see Lashof and Tirpak (1989~. For a discussion of the strengths and weak-
nesses of current observational programs in the area of human interactions
with global environmental change, see Committee on Earth Sciences (CES,
1989~.
2. The examples given are based on the author's knowledge and do not
represent a thorough review of all data. Lack of a listing does not necessarily
indicate there are no appropriate data bases. Likewise, inclusion does not
indicate reliability of the data.
REFERENCES AND SELECTED READING
Ahmed, I., and V.W. Ruttan (eds.~. 1988. Generation and Diffusion of Agricultural
Innovations: The Role of Institutional Factors. Gower Publishing Company
Limited, Aldershot, England.
Anderberg, S. 1989. A conventional wisdom scenario for global population, en-
ergy, and agriculture 1975-2075, and surprise-rich scenarios for global popu-
lation, energy and agriculture 1975-2075. In F.L. Toth et al. (eds.), Scenarios
of Socioeconomic Development for Studies of Global Environmental Change:
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global environmental
