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IReseerch SIrelegies for She U.S. GIol'e! Chenge Hesearch Program Committee on Global Change (U.S. National Committee for the IGBP) of the Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1990

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the further- ance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's pur- poses of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accor- dance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respec- tively, of the National Research Council. This work was sponsored by the National Science Foundation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States Geo- logical Survey, United States Department of Agriculture, Office of Naval Research, and De- partment of Energy. Contract No. OCE 8713699. Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 90-62876 Intemational Standard Book Number 0-309-04348-4 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 S191 Printed in the United States of America Cover art by David Chang

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(u-s Committee on GIobal C-hange National Committee for the IGBP) HAROLD MOONEY, Stanford University, Chairman FRANCIS P. BRETHERTON, University of Wisconsin D. JAMES BAKER, JR., Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc. KEVIN C. BURKE, National Research Council WILLIAM C. CLARK, Harvard University MARGARET B. DAVIS, University of Minnesota ROBERT E. DICKINSON, University of Arizona JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University ROBERT W. KATES, Brown University THOMAS F. MALONE, St. Joseph College MICHAEL B. McELROY, Harvard University BERRIEN S. MOORE III, University of New Hampshire ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, Ohio State University PAUL G. RISSER, University of New Mexico PIERS J. SELLERS, University of Maryland Ex-Officio Members (U.S. Members, ICSU Special Committee for the IGBP) JOHN A. EDDY, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research JAMES J. McCARTHY, Harvard University S. ICHTIAQUE RASOOL, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Staff JOHN S. PERRY, Staff Director RUTH DeFRIES, Senior Program Officer CLAUDETTE BAYLOR-FLEMING, Senior Program Associate . . . [zz

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Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources M. GORDON WOLMAN, The Johns Hopkins University, Chairman ROBERT C. BEARDSLEY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution B. CLARK BURCHFIEL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology RALPH J. CICERONE, University of California at Irvine PETER S. EAGLESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology GENE E. LIKENS, New York Botanical Gardens SCOTT M. MATHESON, Parsons, Behle & Latimer JACK E. OLIVER, Cornell University PHILIP A. PALMER, E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. FRANK L. PARKER, Vanderbilt University DUNCAN T. PATTEN, Arizona State University MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Allied Signal Aerospace Company LARRY L. SMARR, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign STEVEN M. STANLEY, Case Western Reserve University SIR CRISPIN TICKELL, Radcliffe Observatory KARL K. TUREKIAN, Yale University IRVIN L. WHITE, N.Y. State Energy Research and Development Authority JAMES H. ZUMBERGE, University of Southern California STEPHEN RAGMEN, Executive Director STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director JANICE GREENE, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Associate GAYLENE DUMOUCHEL, Administrative Assistant V

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Preface This report is a step in the evolving process of defining the scientific needs for understanding changes in the global environment, changes that are of great concern to the public, policymakers, and the international scien- tific community. Following the National Research Council's 1983 report Toward an International Geosphere-Biosphere Program: A Study of Global Change, 1986 report Global Change in the Geosphere-Biosphere: Initial Priorities for an IGBP, and 1988 report Toward an Understanding of Global Change: Initial Priorities for the International Geosphere-Biosphere Pro- gram, this report builds and expands on the scientific priorities established by the scientific community over the past 7 years. The report recommends research strategies to address the priorities identified in the 1988 report for implementation in the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), the national program that contributes to the goals of the international research programs addressing global change. The report was developed through a number of working groups estab- lished by the Committee on Global Change, each under the chairmanship of a member of the committee. Over an 18-month period in 1988 and 1989, these working groups addressed their respective charges to develop scien- tific approaches and research strategies for each of the five priorities identified in the committee's 1988 report (water-energy-vegetation interactions, fluxes of materials between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere and oceans, biogeochemical dynamics of ocean interactions with climate, earth system history and modeling, and human interactions with global change). The reports from these working groups were used by the committee as inputs to the five chapters on focused studies in this report. In addition to participat- ing in these working groups, members of the committee, working with oth- ers in the scientific community, highlighted approaches to developing inte v

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Vl PREFACE grated earth system models and documenting global change over the long term. The results of these efforts formed the basis of chapters 2 and 8 of this report. Recognizing the evolving nature of global change research, the commit- tee intends that the topics recommended for focused studies within the USGCRP be viewed as initial priorities. They are not intended to span the range of issues that need to be addressed. Rather, they are based on the committee's analysis in its 1988 report of the most critical gaps, not being addressed by existing programs, in the scientific knowledge needed to understand the changes that are occurring in the earth system on time scales of decades to centuries. For example, issues related to the physical climate system that are currently being addressed through the World Climate Research Program are not highlighted in this report. Nor does the committee intend that the topics selected for priority attention span the range of all global change research that needs to be carried out within more traditional disciplinary frameworks. The integration of many aspects of biology, such as the loss of biodiversity and its effects on ecosystem structure and functioning, is still an important object for research and for the development of appropriate models. Within the social sciences, in addition, research needs are currently being defined by the NRC Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change. Many people were involved in the development of this report. First and foremost, my fellow members of the Committee on Global Change worked long and hard. The members of the working groups and the liaison representatives from the interagency Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences, too numerous to name here but indicated in each of the chapters, provided the expertise and energy required to develop their reports. John Perry and Ruth DeFries of the National Research Council staff deftly managed the critical task of turning drafts into a coherent report, and Roseanne Price provided outstanding editorial services. The contributions of each of these people are gratefully acknowledged. Harold A. Mooney, Chairman Committee on Global Change

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Contents SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS 1 Integrated Modeling of the Earth System, 2 Focused Studies to Improve Our Understanding of Global Change, 3 Earth System History and Modeling, 3 Human Sources of Global Change, 4 Water-Energy-Vegetation Interactions, 5 Terrestrial Trace Gas and Nutrient Fluxes, 5 Biogeochemical Dynamics in the Ocean, 6 Documenting Global Change, 7 References, 8 1 INTRODUCTION........................ The U.S. Global Change Research Program, 10 International Programs: IGBP and WCRP, 11 Objectives and Organization of This Report, 12 References, 15 2 INTEGRATED MODELING OF THE EARTH SYSTEM Overview, 16 Atmosphere-Terrestrial Subsystem, 23 A Modeling Strategy: Prognosis for Progress, 25 Research Priorities, 32 Summary, 35 Physical-Chemical Interactions in the Atmosphere, 36 A Modeling Strategy: Prognosis for Progress, 41 Research Priorities, 42 Summary, 45 . . v`` 9 16

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. . . Vil! Atmosphere-Ocean Subsystem, 46 Uncoupled Models, 47 Coupled Models, 49 A Modeling Strategy: Prognosis for Progress, 50 Research Priorities, 55 Summary, 58 Critical Model Tests, 59 The Challenge and Critical Tests, 59 The Interface Models, 60 Infrastructure, 61 References, 63 3 EARTH SYSTEM HISTORY AND MODELING ......... Overview, 67 Contribution of Geologic Studies to Global Change, 67 Specific Research Initiatives, 69 Priorities, 70 Themes of the Proposed Research, 70 Implementation of the Research Plan, 70 Holocene High-Resolution Environmental Reconstructions, 71 The Last 1,000 to 2,000 Years, 71 Earlier Holocene Millennial-Scale Fluctuations, 77 Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, 77 The Last 40,000 Years, 80 CONTENTS 67 The Last Glacial Cycle (Last 130,000 Years), 85 The Last Few Glacial-Interglacial Cycles (Last 500,000 Years), 91 System Responses to Large Changes in Forcing, 92 Environments of Extreme Warm Periods, 93 Climate-Biosphere Connections During Abrupt Changes, 95 Critical Program Elements, 98 Sample Acquisition, 98 Environmental Calibration, 99 Correlation of Records, 100 Data Management, 101 International Cooperation, 101 References, 102 4 HUMAN SOURCES OF GLOBAL CHANGE Overview, 108 Background, 109 Priority Recommendations, 110 The Research Program, 111 108

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CONTENTS Industrial Metabolism, 112 Integration and Synthesis, 112 Process Studies and New Data, 113 Land Transformations, 117 Integration and Synthesis, 1 18 Process Studies, 120 Data Needs, 122 Integrative Studies Across Land Use and Industry, 123 Global Model of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 124 Earth Systems Information Flow Diagram for Human Interactions, 124 Driving Forces: Population, Economy, Technology, and Institutions, 125 Implementation Requirements, 125 Related Institutional Efforts on Human Interactions with Global Change, 125 Investigator-Initiated Research, 126 Education and Training, 127 Data Preparation and Dissemination, 127 The Steps Beyond, 127 Notes, 128 References, 129 5 WATER -ENERGY - VEGETATION INTERAC TIONS Overview, 131 Data Needs and Experiments, 133 Global Data Needs, 136 Experiments, 144 Fundamental Research and Laboratory Work, 148 Modeling, 152 Intermodel Transfer Packages, 155 Phenological Descriptions for LSPs, 156 Hydrological Models, 156 Surface/Planetary Boundary Layer Models, 157 Ecosystem Structure Models, 157 Radiative Transfer/Plant Physiology Models, 158 Soil Genesis Models, 160 Sensitivity Analyses, 160 Summary, 161 Infrastructure, 161 Operational Observations, 161 Satellite Data Processing, 161 ax ....... 131

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x CONTENTS Centers for Research and Monitoring, 162 Education, 162 Interagency and International Coordination, 162 References, 162 6 TERRESTRIAL TRACE GAS AND NUTRIENT FLUXES 164 Overview, 164 Problem Definition, 165 General Approach, 166 Research Needs, 169 Trace Gases, 169 Nutrient and Material Fluxes, 182 Methods and Instruments, 188 Models, 188 Instrumentation for Measuring Fluxes, 191 Cross-Cutting Issues, 192 References, 194 7 BIOGEOCHEMICAL DYNAMICS IN THE OCEAN Overview, 200 Status of Existing Efforts, 202 Biogeochemical Fluxes, 202 Ocean-Atmosphere Interface, 204 Oceanic Ecosystem Response to Climatic Change, 205 Physical Processes, 206 Polar Processes, 209 Status of Modeling and Monitoring Efforts, 210 The Need for Modeling, 210 The Need for Monitoring, 210 Recommendations for Enhanced Support, New Initiatives, and Research Programs, 212 References, 214 8 DOCUMENTING GLOBAL CHANGE. Overview, 215 Measurement Strategy, 216 Monitoring Requirements, 216 Global Synthesis, 217 Process Studies, 221 Existing and Planned Observing Systems, 224 International Coordination, 232 Information and Data Management, 233 Data System Requirements, 233 200 ....... 215

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cO~ Kinds of Data Needed, 234 Functions of s Data and InD~madon System, 234 Creating a New System, 235 References, 239 APPENDIXES A List of ParOcipanls in He Workshop on Human Inl~acHons with Global Change, 243 B A Selective Lileralu~ Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change, >y &Tc~ AJr6erg~8~, 246 C Rewed InsOml~n~ Enbr~ on Human In~racOons wig Globe Change, 285

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