APPENDICES

Appendix A
Studies of Advanced Technology and Economic Competitiveness

Advanced technology and economic competitiveness have been the subject of a number of high-level governmental, industrial, and academic inquiries. Some of the key studies in recent years are summarized below. There is a common ground in the conclusions reached. For the purposes of this report, one should note that computations and modeling occur frequently in the conclusions of these studies and that computation and mathematical modeling are important contributors to many priority areas, even when this fact is not mentioned explicitly. In one of the studies, The Federal High Performance Computing Program, computational modeling is a central focus.

1. Emerging Technologies from the Department of Commerce

Twelve emerging technologies were identified by the Department of Commerce, with annual sales projected to be $ 350 billion by the end of the century. These technologies are as follows:

  1. Advanced Materials

  2. Supercomputers

  3. Advanced Semiconductor Devices

  4. Digital Imaging Technology

  5. High-Density Data Storage



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Mathematical Sciences, Technology, and Economic Competitiveness APPENDICES Appendix A Studies of Advanced Technology and Economic Competitiveness Advanced technology and economic competitiveness have been the subject of a number of high-level governmental, industrial, and academic inquiries. Some of the key studies in recent years are summarized below. There is a common ground in the conclusions reached. For the purposes of this report, one should note that computations and modeling occur frequently in the conclusions of these studies and that computation and mathematical modeling are important contributors to many priority areas, even when this fact is not mentioned explicitly. In one of the studies, The Federal High Performance Computing Program, computational modeling is a central focus. 1. Emerging Technologies from the Department of Commerce Twelve emerging technologies were identified by the Department of Commerce, with annual sales projected to be $ 350 billion by the end of the century. These technologies are as follows: Advanced Materials Supercomputers Advanced Semiconductor Devices Digital Imaging Technology High-Density Data Storage

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Mathematical Sciences, Technology, and Economic Competitiveness High-Performance Computing Optoelectronics Artificial Intelligence Flexible Computer-Integrated Manufacturing Sensor Technology Biotechnology Medical Devices and Diagnostics In addition to presenting this list, the Department of Commerce report also states that at present the United States is judged to be ahead in 6 of the 12 technologies in comparison with Japan and 9 of the 12 technologies in comparison with Europe. The United States is behind in 5 areas compared with Japan and 1 compared with Europe. However, future trends are less promising. In comparison with Japan, the United States is gaining ground in none of these areas, holding even in 2, and losing ground in 10. In comparison with Europe, the United States is gaining in 3 sectors, holding even in 6, and losing in 3. Source: Emerging Technologies. A Survey of Technical and Economic Opportunities. Technology Administration. U.S. Department of Commerce, Spring 1990. 2. The Federal High Performance Computing Program The Federal High Performance Computing Program is an inter-agency effort led by the Office of Science and Technology Policy in response to a report issued by the Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology (FCCSET, usually referred to as "Fixit"),7 calling for a five-year strategy for federally supported R&D in high-performance computing. High-performance computing represents a multibillion dollar world market, in which the United States is increasingly being challenged. 7   The U.S. Computer Industry. The White House, Washington, D.C., December 1987. See also the Annual Report FY 1989 of the FCCSET Subcommittee on Science and Engineering Computing, issued in March 1988.

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Mathematical Sciences, Technology, and Economic Competitiveness Allan Bromley, in his letter of transmittal for the report, states, "We cannot afford to cede our historical leadership in high-performance computing and in its applications." From this report is reproduced a list of grand challenges, whose solution is judged to be possible, using systems developed under the initiative. At least five of these grand challenges have a direct and immediate bearing on economic competitiveness: material sciences, semiconductor design, design of drugs, combustion systems, and oil and gas recovery. Others of the grand challenges have a longer range or are indirectly related to this issue. Prediction of Weather, Climate, and Global Change. The aim is to understand the coupled atmosphere-ocean, biosphere system in enough detail to be able to make long-range predictions about its behavior. Applications include understanding CO2 dynamics in the atmosphere, ozone depletion, climatological perturbations owing to man-made releases of chemicals or energy into one of the component systems, and detailed predictions of conditions in support of military missions. Agencies: DOE, DOD, NASA, NOAA Challenges in Materials Sciences. High-performance computing has provided invaluable assistance in improving our understanding of the atomic nature of materials. These have an enormous impact on our economy. A selected list of such materials includes semiconductors, such as silicon and gallium arsenide, and super-conductors such as the high-Tc copper oxide ceramics that have been shown recently to conduct electricity at about 100 K. Agencies: DOD, DOE, NSF, NASA Semiconductor Design. As intrinsically faster materials such as gallium arsenide are used, a fundamental understanding is required of how they operate and how to change their characteristics. Essential understanding of overlay formation, trapped structural defects, and the effect of lattice mismatch on properties is needed. Currently, it is possible to simulate electronic properties for simple regular systems; however, materials with defects and mixed atomic constituents are beyond present capabilities. Agencies: DOD, DOE, NSF

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Mathematical Sciences, Technology, and Economic Competitiveness Superconductivity. The discovery of high-temperature superconductivity in 1986 has provided the potential of spectacular energy-efficient power transmission technologies, ultrasensitive instrumentation, and devices using phenomena unique to superconductivity. The materials supporting high-temperature superconductivity are difficult to form, stabilize, and use, and the basic properties of the superconductor must be elucidated through a vigorous fundamental research program. Agencies: DOE, NSF, DOD Structural Biology. The function of biologically important molecules can be simulated by computationally intensive Monte Carlo methods in combination with crystallographic data derived from nuclear magnetic resonance measurements. Molecular dynamics methods are required for the time-dependent behavior of such macromolecules. The determination, visualization, and analysis of these three-dimensional structures are essential to the understanding of the mechanisms of enzymic catalysis, recognition of nucleic acids by proteins, antibody/antigen binding, and many other dynamic events central to cell biology. Agencies: DOE, HHS, NSF Design of Drugs. Predictions of the folded conformation of proteins and of RNA molecules by computer simulation are rapidly becoming accepted as a useful, and sometimes primary tool in understanding the properties required in drug design. Agencies: DOE, HHS, NSF Human Genome. Comparison of normal and pathological molecular sequences is [currently] our most revealing computational method for understanding genomes and the molecular basis for disease. To benefit from the entire sequence of a single human will require capabilities for more than three billion subgenomic units, as contrasted with the 10,000 to 200,000 units of typical viruses. Agencies: DOE, HHS, NSF

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Mathematical Sciences, Technology, and Economic Competitiveness Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). In high-energy theoretical physics, computer simulations of QCD are yielding first-principle calculations of the properties of strongly interacting elementary particles. New phenomena have been predicted, including the existence of a new phase of matter and the quark-gluon plasma. Properties under the conditions of the first microsecond of the big bang, and in the cores of the largest stars, have been calculated by simulation methods. Beyond the range of present experimental capabilities, computer simulations of grand unified "theories of everything" have been devised using QCD (lattice-gauge theory). Agencies: DOE, NSF Astronomy. Data volumes generated by Very Large Array (VLA) or Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) radio telescopes currently overwhelm the available computational resources. Greater computational power will significantly enhance their usefulness in exploring important problems in radio astronomy, resulting in better return on a major national investment. Agencies: NASA, NSF Challenges in Transportation. In the nearer term, substantial contributions to vehicle performance can be made using more approximate physical modeling and reducing the amount of interdisciplinary coupling. Examples include modeling of fluid dynamical behavior for three-dimensional flow fields about complete aircraft geometries, flow inside engine turbomachinery, duct flow, and flow about ship hulls. Agencies: NASA, DOD, DOE, NSF, DOT Vehicle Signature. Reduction of vehicle signature (acoustic, electromagnetic, thermal characteristics) is critical for low-detection military vehicles. Agencies: NASA, DOD Turbulence. Turbulence in fluid flows affects the stability and control, thermal characteristics, and fuel performance of virtually all aerospace vehicles. Understanding the fundamental physics of

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Mathematical Sciences, Technology, and Economic Competitiveness turbulence is requisite to reliably modeling flow turbulence for the analysis of realistic vehicle configuration. Agencies: NASA, DOD, DOE, NSF, NOAA Vehicle Dynamics. Analysis of the aeroelastic behavior of vehicles, and analysis of the stability and ride of vehicles are critical to assessments of land and air vehicle performance and life cycle. Agencies: NASA, DOD, DOT Nuclear Fusion. Development of controlled nuclear fusion requires understanding the behavior of fully ionized gasses at very high temperatures under the influence of strong magnetic fields in complex three-dimensional geometries. Agencies: DOE, NASA, DOD Efficiency of Combustion Systems. Attaining significant improvements in combustion efficiencies requires understanding the interplay between the flows of the various substances involved and the quantum chemistry that causes those substances to react. In some complicated cases, the quantum chemistry is beyond the reach of current supercomputers. Agencies: DOE, NASA, DOD Enhanced Oil and Gas Recovery. This challenge has two parts: to locate as much of the estimated 300 billion barrels of oil reserves in the United States and then to devise economic ways of extracting as much of it as possible. Thus improved seismic analysis techniques in addition to improved understanding of fluid flow through geological structures are required. Agencies: DOE Computational Ocean Sciences. The objective is to develop a predictive global ocean model incorporating temperature, chemical composition, circulation, and coupling to the atmosphere and other oceanographic features. This ocean model will be used with models of the atmosphere in the effort on global weather and have specific implications for physical oceanography as well. Agencies: DOD, NASA, NSF, NOAA

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Mathematical Sciences, Technology, and Economic Competitiveness Speech. Speech research is aimed at providing a communications interface with computers based on spoken language. Automatic speech understanding by computer is a large modeling and search problem in which billions of computations are required to evaluate the many possibilities for what a person might have said within a particular context. Agencies: NASA, DOD, NSF Vision. The challenge is to develop human-level visual capabilities for computers and robots. Machine vision requires image signal processing, texture and color modeling, geometric processing and reasoning, and object modeling. A component vision system will likely involve the integration of all of these processes with close coupling. Agencies: NSF, DARPA, NASA Undersea Surveillance for Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW). The Navy faces a severe problem in maintaining a viable ASW capability in the face of quantum improvements in Soviet submarine technology, which are projected to be so substantial that evolutionary improvements in detection systems will not restore sufficient capability to counter their advantages. An attractive solution to this problem involves revolutionary improvements in long-range undersea surveillance which are possible using very high gain acoustic arrays and active acoustic sources for ASW surveillance. These methods will be computationally intensive; even taking advantage of inherent parallelism and judicious design of algorithms, computational demands for the projected post-2000 era submarine threat mandate achieving signal processing computational rates in excess of a trillion operations per second. Agencies: DOD Source: The Federal High Performance Computing Program. Office of Science and Technology Policy, The White House, September 8, 1989.

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Mathematical Sciences, Technology, and Economic Competitiveness 3. The National Academy of Engineering, 10 Outstanding Achievements On the occasion of its 25th anniversary, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) compiled a list of 10 outstanding engineering achievements that had occurred in the previous 25 years. The list was selected from 340 nominations, with the approval of the Council of the NAE. The runners-up were also remarkable, and included such achievements as the Alaskan pipeline, deep-water oil platforms, and cardiac pacemakers. The moon landing was placed first, as one of the outstanding engineering achievements of all time. The other achievements are listed below, approximately in chronological order. With the exception of the moon landing, every topic on this list has a direct and immediate relation to economic competitiveness. Moon Landing Application Satellites Microprocessor Computer-Aided Design and Manufacturing CAT Scan Advanced Composite Materials Jumbo Jet Lasers Fiber-Optic Communication Genetically Engineered Products Source: Engineering and the Advancement of Human Welfare: 10 Outstanding Achievements 1964–1989. National Academy of Engineering, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1989.

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Mathematical Sciences, Technology, and Economic Competitiveness 4. The Departments of Defense and Energy, 20 Critical Technologies According to congressional mandate, the secretaries of Defense and Energy submit an annual plan for the developing technologies considered most critical to national defense. The technologies for 1990 are listed below. • Group A Composite Materials Computational Fluid Dynamics Data Fusion Passive Sensors Photonics Semiconductor Devices and Microelectronic Circuits Signal Processing Software Producibility • Group B Air-Breathing Propulsion Machine Intelligence and Robotics Parallel Computer Architectures Sensitive Radars Signature Control Simulation and Modeling Weapon System Environment • Group C Biotechnology Materials and Processing High Energy Density Materials Hypervelocity Projectiles Pulsed Power

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Mathematical Sciences, Technology, and Economic Competitiveness Superconductivity The priorities are indicated by groups, while the technologies are listed alphabetically within groups. The technologies in Group A are characterized as most pervasive, those in Group B as enabling, and those in Group C as emerging. Source: The Department of Defense Critical Technologies Plan. The Pentagon, Washington, D.C., March 1990. 5. The Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), 10 Emerging Technologies for the 1990s The United States exports far more in aerospace than it imports, but other nations are very quickly catching up in technology. The AIA calls for cooperation among government, industry, and academia to bring forth a national plan for key technologies. The goal is a dramatic increase in the productivity of available resources and a dramatic decrease in technology transfer time. The technologies were chosen by consensus of the aerospace industry as those needed to ensure the competitiveness of the United States into the twenty-first century. For each technology, a working group has been formed with the responsibility of drawing up a plan to achieve stated technology goals. Advanced Composites Very Large Integrated Circuits Advanced Software Air Breathing Propulsion Rocket Propulsion Advanced Sensors Optical Information Processing Artificial Intelligence Ultrareliable Electronic Systems Superconductivity

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Mathematical Sciences, Technology, and Economic Competitiveness Source: AIA Newsletter, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1988, and Vol. 2, No. 7, 1989, Aerospace Industries Association, Washington, D.C. 6. The MIT Commission on Industrial Productivity Michael L. Dertouzos, Richard K. Lester, Robert M. Solow, and the MIT Commission on Industrial Productivity. Made in America: Regaining the Productive Edge, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass., 1989. In 1986, MIT convened a commission to study declining U.S. industrial performance. The commission established eight working groups, each to assess a single industry, while a ninth group studied educational issues. The conclusions from these studies were synthesized into patterns of loss of competitiveness. The MIT commission cites six factors leading to this loss that are listed at the beginning of Chapter 2 of this report. Each pattern was explored in depth. 7. Technology Policy and Its Effect on the National Economy Technology Policy and Its Effect on the National Economy, a report by the Technology Policy Task Force of the Committee on Science, Space and Technology of the House of Representatives, December 1988. This wide-ranging report makes many of the points concerning technology transfer, quality, and education that are emphasized here. In particular it notes, Quality improvement is a critical feature in advancing the competitiveness of products manufactured in the United States. A survey of 600 U.S. business executives reveals that 89 percent of them believe that quality plays the most important role in improving the competitive position of U.S. industrial companies ... Americans seem strangely uninterested in improving the quality of their processes ... W. Edwards Deming, after years of disinterest by U.S. industry, took his message abroad and taught the Japanese how to produce goods of high quality at low cost ... Deming's 14 points on creating quality products are really directed at improving manufacturing technology. Among Deming's 14 points is a call to use statistical methods for continuing improvement of quality and productivity. In addition, he

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Mathematical Sciences, Technology, and Economic Competitiveness highlights the need for vigorous education and training to keep people abreast of new technologies and elimination of dependence on mass inspection. The complete list of Deming's 14 points is given below. Create consistency and continuity of purpose. Refuse to allow commonly accepted levels of delay for mistakes, defective material, defective workmanship. Eliminate the need for dependence upon mass inspection. Reduce the number of suppliers. Buy on statistical evidence, not price. Search continually for problems in the system and seek ways to improve it. Institute modern ways of training, using statistics. Focus supervision on helping people to do a better job. Provide the tools and techniques for people to have pride of workmanship. Eliminate fear. Encourage two-way communication. Break down barriers between departments. Encourage problem solving through teamwork. Eliminate the use of numerical goals, slogans, and posters for the work force. Use statistical methods for continuing improvement of quality and productivity and eliminate all standards prescribing numerical quotas. Remove barriers to pride of workmanship. Institute a vigorous program of education and training to keep people abreast of new developments in materials, methods, and technologies. Clearly define management's permanent commitment to quality and productivity.

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Mathematical Sciences, Technology, and Economic Competitiveness 8. Governing America Governing America: A Competitiveness Policy Agenda for the New Administration . Council on Competitiveness. Chairman, John A. Young, CEO, Hewlett-Packard, 1989. In its recommendations, this report emphasizes technology transfer, education, and R&D. To quote, ''Two priorities in science and technology stand out: facilitating the commercialization of technology and strengthening the U.S. technology infrastructure.'' The report recommends that the United States "Increase government investment in education, facilities and equipment that constitute the nation's technology infrastructure ... widen the focus of national research and development efforts ... promote cooperative R&D among industry, universities and government." 9. A Strategic Industry at Risk A Strategic Industry at Risk. A Report to the President and the Congress from the National Advisory Committee on Semiconductors. Chaired by Ian M. Ross, President, AT&T Bell Laboratories, November 1989. This report describes the difficult competitive position faced by the semiconductor industry. "The semi-conductor industry, after an era of world leadership, is now in trouble ... It is imperative that the U.S. industry, in cooperation with government, develop a strategy to retain a strong semiconductor capability ... The loss of control of this large segment of the economy puts millions of jobs and billions of dollars in tax revenues in jeopardy." 10. Success Factors in Critical Technologies Perspectives: Success Factors in Critical Technologies. Computer Systems Policy Project, Washington D.C., 1990. A panel formed by 11 CEOs from the computer systems industry examines critical issues facing this industry. The main thrust of the report is the identification of 16 critical technologies, and 15 critical success factors. For each critical technology, the current and possible future U.S. competitive position is indicated as well as the role of the critical success factors.

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Mathematical Sciences, Technology, and Economic Competitiveness 11. Engineering Design "The Neglect of Engineering Design," John Dixon and Michael Duffey, California Management Review, Vol. 32, 1990. Among the research needs identified in this article is the development of the basis for a new generation of computer-aided mechanical design systems that integrate optimization and other mathematical tools with simulation of product and process operation. Industry-wide research and dissemination of the design-for-quality methodologies pioneered by Genichi Taguchi are called for.