charges (Hildyard, 1990). Recently, disappointing economic returns, declining international aid, and an awareness of rapid ecological deterioration are becoming associated with changing priorities, and analysts in the World Bank and elsewhere are becoming critical of the old development philosophy (Binswanger, 1989; Mahar, 1988; Schneider, 1990).

The Role of Population Growth It is easy to see Brazil's average population growth of 2.8 percent in the 1970s as the source of land hunger and migration, raising the Amazon population by 6.3 percent annually (Browder, 1988). However, the period witnessed stronger movements of population from the already settled hinterland to cities, combined with considerable natural increase in urban areas. The decline in rural population density is reflected in the phrase, "Quando chega o boi, o homen sai," (When the cattle arrive, the men leave) (Browder, 1988:254). The extensive clearing of forest on the frontier reflects population pressure and food needs outside the local region, combined with a lack of population pressure locally (Denevan, 1981).

Alternative Futures for Amazonia

The Amazonian case illustrates the difference between intensive and extensive patterns of land use in tropical forests. Table 3-9 provides a summary representation of the extremes of these patterns, presented as ideal types (actual land use almost always has features of both types). The Amazonian forest has long been inhabited by peoples that used a mixture of these strategies to support their economies. Indigenous groups combined relatively extensive strategies, such as temporary or shifting cultivation followed by natural forest regeneration and hunting and gathering of dispersed game, fish, and wild food plants, with more intensive farming of alluvial riverine and other soils of high, renewable fertility. More recently, both native American (Posey, 1989; Prance, 1989) and immigrant populations such as the rubber tappers have maintained the forest by a mixed-management strategy that mimics rather than replaces the biologically diverse natural environment (Browder, 1989).

The modern forms of land use most implicated in deforestation—cattle ranching, crop agriculture, and logging and other industrial uses—are extensive and rapidly expansive, market and capital dependent, specialized in one or a few commodities, and mechanized or labor saving. Some observers point to modern strat-



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