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OCR for page 121
Index
A
Absorption rates, of greenhouse gases, 10,
11
Ad Hoc Working Group of Government
Representatives to Prepare for
Negotiations on a Framework
Convention on Climate Change, 66
Adaptation
actions to assist human and natural
systems in, 112
and climate change, 28, 32-33, 42-45,
108
costs of, 99-101
evaluation of options in, 41-42
impacts and capacities of, 36-40, 100
101, 107-108
indices used in, 40-41
methods of, 34-35
mitigation vs., 28
panel recommendations for enhancing,
76-78
as policy option, 30, 32-33
role of innovation in, 35-36
Agriculture
adaptability of, 42-44
effect of changes in precipitation and
evaporation on, 37
effect of increased atmospheric
concentration of carbon dioxide on.
36-37, 77
impact on national economy, 42-43
nonenergy emission reduction for, 57
121
panel recommendations regarding, 76-77
Alternative fuels, 55
Animal life, responses to climate changes
by, 35, 37-38
Annualized costs, determining, 31
Annualized emission reductions, 31
Atmospheric lifetime of greenhouse gases,
11, 88, 89, 103
Atmospheric transformation rate
extrapolation of current, 11, 13
of greenhouse gases, 10-12
B
Backstop technology, 50, 51
Biodiversity. See also Ecosystems
impact of climate change on, 33, 35-38
panel recommendations regarding, 77-80
Blooms, indices to monitor variations in, 41
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and
Climate (National Research
Council), 18
Bridges, 41, 77
Building codes, 39
C
Carbon cycle, 88
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
atmospheric concentrations of, 2, 10-12,
25, 85, 87
effects of increased concentration of,
36-37, 79-80
OCR for page 122
22
equivalency calculations, 31, 103
as greenhouse gas, 1, 85
movement among sinks of, 88
and temperature in prehistoric past, 87
88
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
annualized costs and annualized
reduction of, 31
dispersion of, 10
equivalent doubling of preindustrial
level of, 25, 94-95
estimates of, 5-8
impact of deforestation on, 9, 75, 76
per unit of economic activity, 8-9
radiative forcing and, 13, 103, 105
CFC- 12, 88-89. See also
Chlorofluorocarbons
CFC-115, 88. See also Chlorofluorocarbons Climate models
CFCs. See Chlorofluorocarbons
CH4 (Methane). See Methane (CH4);
Methane (CH4) emissions
Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions
atmospheric concentrations of, 11, 25,
85, 87
estimates of, 5, 6
lasers to remove atmospheric, 58
panel recommendations regarding, 73,
112
regulatory interventions to control, 69,
112
results of eliminating, 52
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
atmospheric lifetime of CFC- 115, 88
as greenhouse gas, 1, 85
varying properties of, 11, 88-89
Clean Air Act, 52, 69
Climate
elements that affect, 20, 23, 88
understanding of, 24
Climate change
adaptation to, 28, 32-33, 42-45, 108.
See also Adaptation
cataclysmic, 44-45
facets of, 3
general circulation models to predict,
17-19, 92-93. See also General
circulation models
human responses to, 34, 36, 98, 99,
107
impact of projected, 97-101
international agreement on, 66, 82
research needs on, 69-70
INDEX
Climate change sensitivities
of agriculture, 37, 43
of carbon dioxide fertilization of green
plants, 36-37, 43
of human health, 39-40, 43
of industry and energy, 39, 43
of managed forests and grasslands, 37,
43
of marine and coastal environments, 38,
43
of migration, 40, 43
of natural landscape, 37-38, 43
of political tranquility, 40, 43
of settlements and coastal structures, 39,
43
of tourism and recreation, 39, 43
of water resources, 38-39, 43
information to be gained through use of,
17-19, 25
panel recommendations regarding
improvement and testing of, 78-79
Cloud stimulation, 58, 60, 81
CO2. See Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Coastal environments, adaptive capacity of,
38
Commercial energy management, 54-55
Coral reefs, 44
Cost-benefit balancing, 52, 63, 96
Cost-effectiveness
of mitigation options, 47, 49, 53, 59, 60,
96, 105, 106
of mitigation policy planning, 49-51
role of, 48
social goals and, 52
Costing, technological, 48-49
Costs
annualized, 31
for impacts of projected climate change,
98-101
negative, 50, 106
to reduce current U.S. greenhouse gas
emissions, 63, 105-107, 109
D
Data collection
climate models used for, 17-19
panel recommendations regarding, 70,
78-80
of sea level, 23-24
of temperature records, 20-23
OCR for page 123
INDEX
Deforestation. See also Forests
issues raised by, 65
panel recommendations regarding, 75-
76
in tropics, 9, 75-76
Developing countries
agreements for phaseout of halocarbon
emissions in, 73
greenhouse gas emissions in, 4, 7-9, 64
.
low-cost mitigation options in, 47
participation in reduction programs by,
64
special problems of, 110
tropical deforestation in, 76
varying capacities of, 41, 68
Discount rates
determining appropriate, 29-30, 111
mitigation options and, 53
used to assign values to future
outcomes, 28
Double-counting, 59, 61, 106
E
Earth, radiation balance of, 12, 1~17
Earth Observing System (EOS), 78
Economic issues, research dealing with, 70,
80
Economic well-being
mitigation vs. adaptation and, 28, 29
relationship between greenhouse gas
emissions and, 4
Ecosystems See also Biodiversity
adaptive capacity of, 37-38, 43, 44
responses to climatic changes by, 35
value of natural, 33, 108
Eemian interglacial period, 87
Efficiency enhancement
and "best practice," 28
mitigation options involving, 54-59
panel recommendations regarding, 73-
74
Electricity
efficiency measures for, 54-55
mitigation options of, 56-57
Energy
sensitivity to climate change, 39, 43
social cost pricing of, 73
Energy conservation
mitigation options involving, 54-59
panel recommendations regarding, 73-
74
123
Energy management mitigation options
industrial, 55
residential and commercial, 54-55
transportation, 55-56
Energy modeling
mitigation options using, 62
technological costing vs., 48-49
Energy policy panel recommendations, 72-
75
Energy supply mix, 74-75
Equilibrium temperature
explanation of, 17, 93
increases, 18
possible impacts on, 16
Evaporation
affecting water supply, 38
effect of changes on agriculture, 37, 42-
43
F
Farming. See Agriculture
Feedback mechanism, 92, 95
Financial resources, 33, 42. See also
Developing countries
Forests
management of, 37
panel recommendations regarding, 72,
73, 75-76
sensitivity assessment of, 36, 37, 43
tropical, 9, 75-76
Fossil fuels
consumption by developing countries of,
64
effects of burning, 4, 27, 30-31
replacement options for, 56-57, 75
trance, greenhouse gas emissions in, 8, 9
Free-standing actions, 28
Full social cost pricing
considerations regarding, 67, 68
explanation of, 30-31
panel recommendations regarding, 73
G
GCMs. See General circulation models
General circulation models (GCMs)
to anticipate climatic changes, 17-18
explanation of, 1-2, 92-93
limitations to use of, 18-19, 94
varying interpretations of, 18
Genetic resources, 33
OCR for page 124
124
Geoengineering
assessment of options in, 113
mitigation options, 53, 57-60, 105
panel recommendations for evaluating
options of, 70, 80-81
Global average temperature
adaptation resulting from predicted rise
in, 45-46
effect of greenhouse gases on, 20, 22,
25, 26, 85
equilibrium, 16-18, 93
as indicator of climatic effects, 3, 19
recent changes in, 20, 87
use of general circulation models to
predict, 18
Government intervention, 63, 69, 109
Grasslands
adaptive capacity of, 37
sensitivity and adaptability of, 43
Greenhouse effect
explanation of, 85-87
knowledge and predictions regarding,
85-95
Greenhouse gas emissions
cost for achieving reductions in, 49-51,
105-107
human activities affecting, 3-4, 5-11,
25, 88, 103, 104
impact of economic and population
growth on, 4-5. See also Population
growth
influence of climate on, 1, 79
international considerations regarding
control of, 64-66
mitigation options for elimination of,
54-58
panel recommendations for reducing or
offsetting, 70, 72-76, 112
social and economic processes
generating, 6, 70, 104
Greenhouse gases
activities causing release of, 3-4
atmospheric lifetime of, 11, 88, 89, 103
atmospheric transformation rate in,
10-12, 13
characteristics of, 88-89. See also
individual gases
impacts on global equilibrium temperature
of changes in atmospheric concentrations
of, 16, 17
list of, 1
various properties of, 10-11
INDEX
Greenhouse warming
actions to be taken regarding, 110-113
adapting to additional, 107-109. See
also Adaptation
costs and benefits attributable to, 52
estimating future, 16, 17-19, 24-26, 93
events possible due to, 1-2, 25-26
explanation of, 1, 3, 85, 87
framework for responding to, 70, 96
impact of additional, 97-103
implementing response options to, 109-110
known facts regarding, 24-25, 27, 93-94
limitations of human responses to, 41-42
panel recommendations. See Panel
recommendations
policy options to deal with. See Policy
options
preventing or reducing additional, 95,
103-107, 109
sea level change due to, 23-24
social and economic aspects of, 70, 80
strategic indices of, 40-41
H
Halocarbons. See also Chlorofluorocarbons
mitigation options for, 57
panel recommendations for eliminating,
72, 73
Hardware, technological, 35
HCFCs (Hydrogenated chlorofluorocarbons),
1, 85
Health, human, 39-40, 42, 43
Holocene optimum, 87
Human activities affecting greenhouse gas
emissions, 3-4, 5-11, 25, 88, 103, 104
Human adaptation
to climate change, 34, 36, 98, 99, 107
role of innovation in, 35-36, 96
Human health, 39-40, 42, 43
Human migration
indices to monitor variations in, 41
as response to climate change, 40, 43
Human settlements, sensitivity to climate
change, 39, 43
Hydrogenated chlorofluorocarbons
(HCFCs), 1, 85
Incentive policy instruments, 62, 63, 69, 109
India, greenhouse gas emissions in, 7
OCR for page 125
INDEX
Indices, for monitoring purposes, 40-41
Industrial energy management, 55, 74
Industrialized countries
agreements for phaseout of halocarbon
emissions in, 73
varying capacities of, 68
Industry, sensitivity to climate change, 39,
42, 43
Information, as limiting factor in
responding to greenhouse warming,
42
innovation, 35-36
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), 18, 65, 67
International cooperation
importance of, 64, 110, 113
panel recommendations for exercising
leadership in, 70, 81-82
for population control, 81
International Council of Scientific Unions
(ICSU), 65
International Geosphere-Biosphere Program
(IGBP), 65
International organizations
activities of, 65-66, 109
program coordination by, 63
L
Land air temperature measurement, 21
Land use planning, 39
Landfills, reduction of gas generation in, 57
Law of the Sea, 66
Levees, 77
Living standards, environmental
degradation accompanying, 4
Local government, actions to control
greenhouse warming by, 63
London Protocol, 66, 73
M
Margin of safety planning, 77
Marine ecosystems, 38, 43, 44
Mathews, Jessica, 45n - 6n
Melting, high-latitude tundra, 24
Methane (CH4)
atmospheric lifetime of, 88
as greenhouse gas, 1, 85
Methane (CH4) emissions
atmospheric concentrations of, 10, 11,
25, 85, 87
125
due to melting of high-latitude tundra, 24
estimates for 1985, 5, 6
Migration. See Human migration
Mitigation
adaptation vs., 28, 29
analysis of costs of, 47
as policy option, 30-32, 67
Mitigation options
assessment of, 51-60, 63
comparison of, 49-51, 59-62, 103, 105-
107
cost-effectiveness of, 47, 49, 53, 59, 60,
96, 105, 106
for developing countries, 4, 47
for electricity and fuel supply, 56-57
geoengineering, 53, 57-60, 105
implementation of, 62-63
for industrial energy management, 55
for nonenergy emission reduction, 57
for residential and commercial energy
management, 54-55
technological costing vs. energy
modeling for, 48~9
for transportation energy management,
55-56
Montreal Protocol on Protection of the
Ozone Layer, 66, 73
N
National governments
actions to control greenhouse warming
by, 63, 109
U.S. research budget, 69
Natural landscapes
adaptive capacity of, 37
sensitivity to change, 43
Negative feedback, 92, 95
Nitrous oxide (N2O), 1, 85
Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, 5, 6
N2O (Nitrous oxide), 1, 85. See also
Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions
Noneconomic values, 33
Nonenergy emission reduction, 57
Nuclear power
concerns regarding, 53
reactor design needs for, 75
o
O3 (Ozone), 1, 85
Ocean biomass stimulation, 58, 60, 81
OCR for page 126
126
Ocean currents
indices to monitor variability of, 40
interruption of, 24, 102
Oceans
research needs regarding, 79, 111
sensitivity assessment of, 38
surface temperature of, 21, 95
thermal expansion in, 23-24
Ozone (O3), 1, 85
p
Panel recommendations
enhancing adaptation to greenhouse
warming, 70, 76-78, 112
evaluating geoengineering options, 70,
80-81, 112
exercising international leadership, 70,
81-82, 112
improving knowledge for future
decisions, 70, 78-80, 112
reducing or offsetting greenhouse gas
emissions, 70, 72-76, 112
Parameterizations, 18
People's Republic of China, greenhouse gas
emissions in, /
Photosynthesis, effect of increased
atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide on, 37
Plant life, responses to climatic changes by,
35, 37-38
Pliocene climate optimum, 87, 88
Policy considerations
capacities of industrialized and
developing countries as, 41, 68
fundamental and applied research as,
69-70
taxes and incentives as, 69
Policy options
assigning values to future outcomes and,
29-30
limited resources and, 33
method of comparing, 30-33
panel recommendations regarding,
70-82. See also Panel
recommendations
risk perception and, 33
types of, 27-28
Politics, sensitivity to climate change, 40,
43
Pollution, increased living standards
resulting in, 4
INDEX
Population growth
in developing countries, 64
global, 5, 64, 81
relationship between greenhouse gas
emissions and, 4, 64, 81
Positive feedback, 92, 95
Precipitation
agricultural changes due to changes in,
37
effect of climate changes on, 38-39, 42
43
efficiency management to cope with
variability in, 77
R
Radiation balance, 12, 14-17, 85, 86
Radiative energy emissions, 14
Radiative forcing
caused by concentrations of carbon
dioxide, 13, 103, 105
explanation of, 11, 87
geoengineering options affecting, 80
of greenhouse gases from 1990 to 2030,
13, 16, 17, 89-92
research needs to understand phenomena
affecting, 70
role of chlorofluorocarbons in, 73
Real income, mitigation vs. adaptation and,
28, 29
Recreation, sensitivity to climate change,
39, 43, 44
Reforestation. See also Forests
as mitigation option, 57
panel recommendations regarding, 76
Regulatory policy instruments, 62-63, 109
Relative sea level (RSL), 23
Research
international activities in, 65-66
need for fundamental and applied, 69-
70
panel recommendations regarding, 70,
78-80, 82
Residential energy management, 54-55
Resources, varying constraint felt by limited
natural and human, 33
Risk perception, 33
S
Sea level
effect on wetlands of, 38
OCR for page 127
INDEX
global warming producing rise in, 26, 38
indices to monitor variations in, 41
variations in, 23-24
Sea surface temperatures, 21, 95
Second World Climate Conference, 65-67
Sensitivity
classifications of, 42-45, 97-99
definition of, 43, 99
development of economical adaptation
that lessens, 41
estimation of, 97
to natural phenomena, 36
Sensitivity assessment
of agriculture, 37
of carbon dioxide fertilization of green
plants, 36-37
data and analyses used, 36, 76
of human health, 39~0
of industry and energy, 39
of managed forests and grasslands, 37
of marine and coastal environment, 38
of natural landscape, 37-38
of political tranquility, 40
of settlements and coastal structures, 39
of tourism and recreation, 39
of water resources, 38-39
Sinks, 88
Social issues
greenhouse gas emission reduction
options and, 52
research dealing with, 70, 80
Software, technological, 35
Solar radiation, 12, 14, 15
State government, actions to control
greenhouse warming by, 63
Stratospheric particle options, 58, 60, 81
Sulfate aerosol emissions, 20
Sunlight screening, as mitigation option, 58
T
Taxes, as policy option, 69, 109
Technological costing
energy modeling vs., 48~9
mitigation options using, 62
Technological hardware and software, 35
Temperature records
interpretation of, 20-23
and occurrence of greenhouse warming,
92
and use of general circulation models,
18-19
127
Temperature variations
prehistoric, 23, 87-88
sulfate aerosol emissions as reason for,
20
Thermal expansion, of oceans, 23-24
Tide gauges, 23
Time, as limiting factor in responding to
greenhouse warming, 41
Tourism, 39, 43, 44
Transpiration, 36, 37
Transportation energy management, 55-56,
74
Tropics, deforestation in, 9, 75-76
Tundra melting, 24
U
United Nations Environment Programme,
65
United Nations World Conference on
Environment and Development
(1992), 66, 82
Urban settlements, 39, 43
V
Vehicle efficiency, 55
W
Water, as limiting factor in responding to
greenhouse warming, 41~2
Water resources
effect of climate changes on, 38
indices monitoring variations in streams
and soils, 40
management of, 38-39
panel recommendations regarding, 77
sensitivity and adaptability of, 43
Water vapor
and example of feedback mechanism, 92
as greenhouse gas, 1, 85
Weather. See also Climate change
impact of extreme, 34, 95
improvement in forecasting, 79
West Antarctic Ice Sheet, 23, 24, 102
Wetlands, 38
Wind patterns, 38
World Climate Program (WCP), 65
World Climate Research Program (WCRP3,
65
World Meteorological Organization, 65
Representative terms from entire chapter:
greenhouse gas
