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Automotive Fuel Economy: How Far Should We Go? INDEX

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Automotive Fuel Economy: How Far Should We Go? This page in the original is blank.

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Automotive Fuel Economy: How Far Should We Go? INDEX A Active noise control, 44 Air/fuel ratio, 34, 69, 76 Air Quality Act of 1967, 71 Antilock brakes, 58, 59 Automobile consumers, 9-10, 107-120 age and buying preferences, 116-117, 119-120 and fuel economy, 9-10, 27, 111-112, 117-119, 120, 156-159, 170 and fuel prices, 119, 120 and future price increases, 110-111 demand for optional equipment/performance, 110, 117-118, 119 fuel economy/fuel price trade offs, 112-114, 118 mix of automotive purchases, 9, 114 new-car expenditures, 107-111 Automotive industry (U.S.), 8-9, 26, 90-105 capacity for investment, 9, 100-102 employment in, 8, 94-97, 105 financial performance, 91-93, 104 impact of competition, 8, 91-92, 93-102, 105 impact of emissions standards, 94 (note 7), 100, 104 impact of fuel economy standards, 90, 91, 100-102, 159-162 impact of international fuel prices, 103, 105 Japanese transplants, 91, 96-97 plant closings, 94, 95 product development, U.S. vs. Japanese, 98-100, 102, 105 Automotive market, 107-111 new-car expenditures, 107, 109 sales and scrappage, 107-108, 110 Auto/Oil Air Quality Improvement Research Program, 80, 81 C Car sales by size class, 18, 22 Catalyst systems heated, 79 NOx, 43, 75, 77-78, 85 three-way, 43, 70, 75, 76-77 Charge to the committee, 1 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), 71 Clean Air Act amendments, 69, 71, 72-75 Concept vehicles, 45, 222-225 see also, prototype vehicles Corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) system alternatives/supplements to, 10-11, 173-180, 185-186, 187 fees and rebates, 11, 179-180, 186 increased fuel prices, 11, 173-178, 186 current system, 12, 168-173, 183 (note 28) strengths, 172-173 weaknesses, 10, 169-172, 186 percentage improvement approach, 10, 181, 187 potential modifications to, 11, 180-185, 186-187 vehicle attribute approach, 181-182 D Diesel engine 33, 219-221 Downsizing/downweighting, 39, 62, 63 estimates of safety impact, 5-6, 51-55, 62, 63 GAO study, 54-55 need for further study, 63 NHTSA study, 53 OTA study, 55 E Emissions, 26 data on, 71, 78, 82 health effects, 70, 85 impact on global warming, 70 nature of, 69-72 Emissions control, 7-8, 71-85 costs, 159 during refueling, 70, 80, 85 hydrocarbons, 79 impact on fuel economy, 7-8, 75-82, 105, 164 indirect impacts, 84 meeting future standards, 7-8, 82-83, 84-85 NOx, 76-79 on-board fuel recovery, 70, 80 standards, 72-75, 76 stationary sources, 78, 82 surveillance, 83, 85 Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. (EEA) fuel economy projections, 123, 124, 145, 154, 232 fuel economy technologies, 40, 137-139, 196, 197, 200-214

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Automotive Fuel Economy: How Far Should We Go? Energy Policy and Conservation Act, 12 Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), 44, 77 Externalities, 25, 118 F Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS), 54 (note 7), 55-56 Fatality rates, 47 by crash type, 50 trends in, 47, 62 Fatality risk, 56 and crash severity, 49-50 and design compatibility, 51, 59 and ride-down distances, 50 and rollover stability, 5-6, 48-49, 58, 59, 62 Federal Test Procedure (FTP), 30 highway cycle, 37 operating conditions, 31, 37 urban cycle, 37 Fuel chemical energy in, 31, 32, 35, 36 consumption, 22, 163 prices, 17, 112-114, 173-178 cost-benefits of reduced consumption, 23-25 Fuel economy and emissions control, 7-8, 75-82, 84-85 and safety standards, 59, 63 determinants, 32-40 Japanese interest in, 90 technologies, 3-5, 7, 40-45 emerging 3-5, 43-45 proven, 3-5, 40-43 trends, 13-22 U.S. vs. Japanese cars, 90 Fuel economy estimates caveats, 2, 149-150, 164-165 practically achievable, 1, 154-165 cost-benefit consideration, 154-156, 157 costs-benefits for consumers, 156-159 costs-benefits for manufacturers, 159-162 costs-benefits for nation, 163 technically achievable, 1-3, 150-154 Fuel economy projections, 122-146 committee projections, 126-144, 146 alternative methods, 125, 146 assumptions, 125-126 best-in-class projections, 131-135, 146 caveats, 144, 145 historical trend projections, 126-131 Fuel economy projections committee projections (continued) technology-penetration projections (shopping cart), 133-144, 146 costs involved, 138, 139-144 previous efforts, 122-125 G Greenhouses gases, 70, 71 carbon dioxide emissions 24, 104, 156, 163 L Lean-burn engines, 43, 217-221 Light trucks sales by size class, 22 standards for, 57-58, 183 M Mix shifting, 154, 171, 177 and safety, 48, 51, 57 Model year, defined, 12 (note 4) Multipoint fuel injection, 39, 42 N National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), 53, 58 and light trucks, 59 and rollover stability, 59 New Car Assessment Program (NCAP), 58 (note 16) P Performance and fuel economy, 37 passenger cars, 20 Policy coordination and analysis, 8, 165-166 data collection to support, 5 Prototype vehicles, 45, 222-225 see also, concept vehicles S Safety, 5-7, 26, 47-63 and fuel economy, 5-7, 59, 60-61, 62, 63, 163 and shift to light trucks, 55, 57-58 and societal values, 7, 61-62, 63 cost of future safety standards, 159 data issues, 55-56 improvements, 7, 58-61, 63 individual vs. societal risk, 56-57, 227-231 standards, 58, 59 see also, downsizing/downweighting, fatality rates, fatality risks Size class definition, 18 (note 9)

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Automotive Fuel Economy: How Far Should We Go? SRI International fuel economy projections, 123, 124, 234 fuel economy technologies, 40, 137-139, 196, 197, 200-214 T Technology forecasting, 26 Time frame of study, 2, 9 Turbo/supercharging, 38 Two-stroke engines, 7, 44, 221-222 V VTEC engine, 38, 205-206, 219