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  3 Emerging Sectors INTRODUCTION The renewable sectors of solar, wind, and geothermal energy and the sector of carbon capture, use, and storage (CCUS), which includes geological carbon sequestration, are not as mature or as long established as the sectors of oil and gas, nuclear energy, and mining discussed in Chapter 2. These sectors are still emerging and their pieces of the future U.S. energy quilt are still evolving. These emerging sectors are the subject of this chapter. The following discussions of solar, wind, and geothermal energy, as well as CCUS, generally contain an overview of typical systems and related technologies, market trends, industry overview and profile, public policy and regulatory issues, occupational categories, career pathways, employer needs and challenges, workforce education and training, potential impact of innovation, conclusions, and recommendations. This chapter also highlights an example of a successful geothermal education program that could be emulated for other energy and mining sectors. Recommendations of importance for each of the emerging industries in this chapter, along with the information and data to support them, are provided within their respective chapter sections. In addition to these industry-specific recommendations, a set of Shared Recommendations that apply across the industries in this chapter are presented at the final section of the chapter. A point to note that is common to all of these emerging sectors relates to the availability of reliable workforce estimates and projections. As noted in Chapter 1 and described in Appendix B, this report primarily uses data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to profile the workforce. However, to examine the energy and mining workforce, there are shortcomings with using BLS data. The dominant limitation is the way in which the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) system handles the emerging sectors. Whereas there are NAICS codes that are helpful in understanding the more mature industries covered in Chapter 2, the emerging industries are not represented by unique NAICS codes, making it currently infeasible to examine or project the workforce in each of these areas using BLS data. This limitation may be mitigated in time as the NAICS codes are updated. As an example of this possibility, in the 2012 version, separate NAICS codes are available for solar electric power generation, wind electric power generation, and geothermal electric power generation. Unfortunately, these changes will not make their way into all of the data sources available from the BLS and other agencies for several years. Workforce information, data, and projections from sources other than BLS are used and discussed as appropriate in each of the emerging sector sections. There are variations among data from different sources, and these differences are noted in the discussions that follow. 87 Prepublication Version 

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88 EMERGING WORKFORCE TRENDS IN THE U.S. ENERGY AND MINING INDUSTRIES   A few general points are worth noting. Workforce estimates are prepared by The Solar Foundation (TSF, which regularly conducts a solar jobs census), the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA, which regularly prepares wind market reports), and the Geothermal Energy Association (GEA, which reports on the geothermal industry). Such data are presented from these and other authors. Also, TSF provides near-term workforce projections, GEA provides scenario-based workforce projections, and government entities (the National Renewable Energy Laboratory [NREL] and Department of Energy [DOE]) have conducted studies that include long-range workforce projections for solar and wind, respectively, based on specific scenarios. Such data are given from these and other authors. The projection time frames vary widely among the different data sources. Industry market trends and projections are helpful in providing insights into possible workforce trends. Because the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the source of energy statistics from the U.S. government, EIA data are used to show industry market trends and projections out to 2035. Trend information from TSF, AWEA, GEA, the Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC, for solar), and others are also presented. The data in this report were collected by different entities for different purposes using a variety of methods and workforce definitions, making direct data comparisons difficult and inexact. Additional information about these data can be obtained from their referenced reports and papers. SOLAR ENERGY Introduction and Overview of Solar Power Systems Three major categories of solar power systems are discussed—photovoltaics (PV),, solar heating and cooling (SHC),, and concentrating solar power (CSP). PV systems convert solar power directly into electric power. SHC systems convert solar energy into thermal energy that can be used to heat potable water, heat and cool buildings, and heat swimming pools. CSP systems are thermal electric systems that first convert solar energy into thermal energy to produce high-temperature steam, and then the steam is used to drive a turbine generator to produce electric power. Photovoltaic Systems The PV effect is the underlying phenomenon that allows PV systems to be effective electric power systems. When they are part of a complete electrical circuit and subjected to sunlight, PV (or solar) cells produce direct-current (dc) electricity. Many types of semiconductor materials can be used to make PV cells, but silicon is by far the most common. The typical silicon wafer is treated (doped) with both boron and phosphorous. The PV cell is the basic building block of PV power systems. Manufacturers electrically connect the cells and enclose them in a laminate structure to form PV modules, which are the principal product sold by PV manufacturers. System designers and integrators combine modules in series and parallel configurations to form PV arrays with a desired current and voltage output. A PV system that operates in parallel with the electric utility grid is referred to as utility interactive or grid tied. In this configuration, an inverter converts the array’s dc output into alternating current (ac) and serves as a power conditioning unit to ensure high-quality electrical Prepublication Version 

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EMERGING SECTORS 89 output. The ac signal from the inverter typically is connected to the utility grid in an electrical service panel, and from there is routed to the electrical loads. If the PV system output exceeds the total demand from the loads, the excess power flows into the utility grid, and the owner of the PV system is credited by the utility company for the metered electricity fed into the grid. Batteries or other types of energy storage systems can be used with grid-tied systems. Systems with backup storage are more common in areas that are susceptible to extended power outages. During utility outages, stored energy can be used to supply critical loads for a selected period of time. However, most grid-tied PV systems do not have backup storage and if an outage occurs, the inverter automatically shuts down and no PV-generated power is available. Stand-alone PV systems are not connected to the grid and most require energy storage, typically batteries. Their design requires an analysis of all electrical loads and a specification of the number of days of storage required to provide needed electricity for periods lacking sunshine. The range of dc power output from residential PV arrays is typically 1-10 kW. Systems may be stand-alone or grid tied, and system size is often driven by incentive programs offered in various states and by utility companies. The design and installation of small commercial PV systems is very similar to that for residential systems, and they may be in the range of 10-100 kilowatts (kW) or higher. Large commercial PV systems range from greater than 100 kW to several megawatts (MW). The combination of lower PV costs and an increasing number of states with renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) has led many utility companies to pursue utility-scale systems that range from 1 MW to hundreds of megawatts (Figure 3.1). Also, it often takes less than a year to obtain permits and build multimegawatt PV systems, generating great interest among utility companies. Solar Heating and Cooling SHC systems convert sunlight into thermal energy for a variety of applications; most commonly for heating water, heating and cooling buildings, and heating swimming pools. Flat- plate collectors may be glazed and insulated for heating potable water in buildings, or unglazed and not insulated for heating swimming pools. Evacuated tube or concentrating collectors can be used for higher-temperature applications, including industrial process heat. Passive building design is used to control the amount of solar thermal energy entering a space and storing it for later use. Solar thermal energy can also be used to drive an absorption chiller to actively cool buildings. Concentrating Solar Power Large concentrating solar power systems are becoming increasingly attractive to utility companies for large-scale electric power generation as costs decrease. There are a number of CSP plants operating and under construction, totaling a few gigawatts. These systems receive solar energy over a large area using either mirrors or concentrating collectors, and focus it onto a target of much smaller area. Depending on the level of concentration, temperatures above 1,000oF can be attained in a working fluid. The thermal energy can produce steam to drive a turbine generator, which then produces electric power. CSP systems can be paired with more traditional turbine generators, possibly in conjunction with another fuel source. Figure 3.1 shows the construction of concentrating collectors for a CSP system in Florida. These collectors are the Prepublication Version 

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90 EMERGING WORKFORCE TRENDS IN THE U.S. ENERGY AND MINING INDUSTRIES   building blocks for Florida Power and Light’s 75-MW Martin Solar Plant CSP system that came online in 2010. FIGURE 3.1 (Left) Utility-scale PV system . (Right) Construction of concentrating sollectors for the Martin Solar Plant (a concentrating solar power system). SOURCE: (Left) http://solarpanelspower.net/solar-power/the-politics-of-solar-power. (Right) Sherwood (2011). Solar Market Trends Workforce trends follow market trends, so market trend information is a helpful indicator of potential workforce trends. Solar markets have been and continue to be very strong, mainly due to financial incentives from federal, state, and local governments, and electric utility companies. These incentives have produced significant demand for solar products. In 2010, the number of new solar installations completed was 124,000, including both solar electric and solar thermal systems, representing an increase of 22 percent, from 2009. The solar energy capacity installed in 2010 was 981 MW of dc electricity and 814 MW of thermal energy (Sherwood, 2011). As described below, the solar market has continued to grow since 2010 (Sherwood, 2012, SEIA/GTM, 2012a). Financial and other incentives that drive the solar market vary considerably among the states. Therefore, the more robust solar markets are concentrated in relatively few states with the greatest incentives. Nationally, the 30 percent federal business investment tax credit (ITC) has been extended through December 31, 2016. This, along with recent legislation allowing utilities to take advantage of it, should result in continued near-term growth in solar markets. Figure 3.2 is a snapshot of solar market trends for solar PV, SHC, and solar pool heating for the first decade of the 21st century. In terms of numbers of installations per year, note that the most dramatic growth was for grid-tied PV, which was significantly higher than for off-grid. Note also that the number of solar pool heating installations declined over the last half of the decade, primarily due to the collapse of the housing market and the associated decline in new home construction. For all four categories, the solar market grew from approximately 30,000 to nearly130,000 installations per year over the decade (Sherwood, 2011). Prepublication Version 

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EMERGING SECTORS 91 FIGURE 3.2 Number of U.S. installations per year by technology sector (2001-2010). SOURCE: Sherwood (2011). Photovolatics Grid-tied PV applications fall into three sectors: residential, nonresidential (i.e., commercial, government, and military installations), and utility-scale. Figure 3.3 shows the breakdown of annual installed capacity for these sectors for 2002-2011.   Prepublication Version 

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92 EMERGING WORKFORCE TRENDS IN THE U.S. ENERGY AND MINING INDUSTRIES       FIGURE 3.3 Annual installed capacity of U.S. grid-connected PV installations by sector (2002-2011). SOURCE: Sherwood (2012). Used with permission from the Interstate Renewable Energy Council. More than 64,000 grid-tied PV systems were installed in 2011 (a 30 percent increase from 2010). From Figure 3.3, note that the capacity of grid-tied PV system installations more than doubled in 2011 compared with 2010. Both the increase in the number of utility-scale systems and the sizes of these systems accounted for this tremendous growth. The total installed capacity in 2011 alone was 1.845 GWdc, which was more than 10 times the capacity installed 4 years earlier in 2007. The cumulative installed capacity of grid-tied PV by the end of 2011 was 4 GWdc (Sherwood, 2012). The average size of grid-tied systems has been growing in all three PV sectors. Average size varies from state to state and depends on available incentives, interconnection requirements, net metering regulations, and other factors. In 2011, PV installations represented 7 percent of all new electricity generation installed that year in the United States (Sherwood, 2012) The growth trend in annual installed capacity was 848.5 MWdc in 2010, 1,886 MWdc in 2011, and 1,992.4 MWdc through the first three quarters of 2012. The cumulative PV capacity in the United States at the end of the third quarter of 2012 was 5.9 GWdc. The solar industry is projecting installations for 2012 to be 3.2 GWdc—a 70 percent annual growth rate for the year (GTM/SEIA, 2012b). Solar Heating and Cooling Solar thermal systems can be used to heat and/or cool buildings, heat water for swimming pools, and heat water for various industrial processes. Figure 3.2 shows the number of annual installations for SHC and for solar pool heating. In 2010, the total annual installed capacity for Prepublication Version 

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EMERGING SECTORS 93 SHC of buildings was nearly 160 MW-thermal. Solar water heating installations increased by 6 percent in 2010 compared with 2009, and 84 percent were in the residential sector. The annual installed capacity for solar pool heating was around 650 MW-thermal in 2010, with about 90 percent in the residential sector. In 2010, the capacity of solar pool heating installations grew 13 percent compared with 2009, but it is still 30 percent less than the peak reached in 2006 (Sherwood, 2011). Concentrating Solar Power In CSP systems, the thermal energy in a working fluid can be used to generate bulk electric power for utilities. From 1992 until 2006, there was very little CSP activity. However, because of RPSs, other incentive programs, and technology improvements, there is renewed interest among utilities in CSP systems. In 2010, only a 75-MW Florida Power and Light CSP plant and a small plant in Colorado were installed (Sherwood, 2011). However, a number of new and very large CSP power plants are in the planning or construction stages and are expected to be completed between now and into 2017. These plants include seven in California and one each in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada, with a total ac power output of 2.737 GWac. (GTM/SEIA, 2012b). Cost and Price Trends Of all of the solar technologies, the greatest actual and potential cost reductions have been in PV systems. In 1976 the average cost of a PV module was approximately $60 per watt (using 2005 U.S. dollars) (USPREF, 2012). By 1985, the average cost was approximately $6.50 per watt (Mints, 2008), and by 2010, PV module costs averaged $1.70 per watt (Mints, 2011). In 2012, some module costs had dropped to below $0.90 per watt! With the rapid development of new materials and improved manufacturing, costs will continue to decline. The new SunShot Initiative, led by DOE, has set a goal of reducing PV module costs to $0.50 per watt, and to reduce installed PV system costs for utility-scale applications to $1 per watt by 2020 (Friedman, 2011). Figure 3.4 shows the price reduction goals for PV module, power electronics, balance-of- system, and installed system costs to achieve the SunShot Initiative goal. Prepublication Version 

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94 EMERGING WORKFORCE TRENDS IN THE U.S. ENERGY AND MINING INDUSTRIES   FIGURE 3.4 Price reductions to achieve the SunShot Initiative goal of $1/watt PV system costs. SOURCE: Friedman (2011). Market Projections Given current U.S. economic conditions and the dependence of the solar market on government policies and incentive programs, it is difficult to project the size of solar markets in the long term. In the committee’s judgment, trends over the past 10 years indicate the following:  Solar pool heating capacity peaked in 2006. This market is partly driven by residential construction (which is not expected to fully recover soon) and the cost of installations is not expected to drop appreciably. Therefore, no significant near-term growth is anticipated.  The solar heating and cooling system market should continue to grow at a moderate rate as the price of conventional energy continues to rise. Federal, state, and utility incentive programs can favorably influence these markets, but no technological breakthroughs leading to significant cost reductions are anticipated.  Large CSP systems can help meet the requirements of RPSs for states that have them. Because they work best in areas with a high percentage of direct sunlight, significant growth in CSP is anticipated in the southwestern United States.  Of the solar technologies, PV technology offers the greatest opportunity for significant growth in the near and long term. PV costs are decreasing rapidly, making PV more attractive to all major user sectors. Also, since PV power production is well aligned with peak utility demand, utilities are increasingly attracted to the technology. Grid parity is expected to be reached within the current decade, whereby PV-generated electricity will be cost-competitive with conventional generation. When that occurs, even higher rates of growth in PV markets can be expected, with utility companies leading the way. Prepublication Version 

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EMERGING SECTORS 95 The EIA has projected the solar thermal and solar PV net summer capacity and electrical generation for the electric power sector, as well as the solar PV net summer capacity and electrical generation for end-use generators through 2035. (see Table 3.1 ). Table 3.1 shows expected strong growth in the solar energy sector (especially for solar PV) through 2035. Note that the values for net summer capacity (GW) shown in the table should not be confused with the rated capacity of installed solar PV at standard test conditions (see notes following the table). TABLE 3.1 Solar energy generating capacity and generation (EIA Reference case). Annual Growth 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010-2035 (%) Electric Power Sector Net summer capacitya (GW) Solar thermal 0.47 0.47 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 4.3 Solar PVb 0.15 0.38 2.02 2.03 2.30 2.97 8.18 13.0 Generation (billion kWh) Solar 0.74 0.82 2.86 2.86 2.86 2.86 2.86 5.1 Solar PV2 0.16 0.46 3.61 3.62 4.37 6.16 20.19 16.4 End-Use Generatorsc Net summer capacitya (GW) Solar PVb 1.22 2.05 8.98 11.19 11.69 12.41 13.33 7.8 Generation (billion kilowatthours) Solar PVb 1.93 3.21 13.88 17.4 18.22 19.4 20.91 7.8 a Net summer capacity is the steady hourly output that generating equipment is expected to supply to system load (exclusive of auxiliary power), as demonstrated by tests during summer peak demand. b Does not include off-grid PV. On the basis of annual PV shipments from 1989 through 2009, EIA estimates that as much as 245 MW of remote electricity generation PV applications (i.e., off-grid power systems) were in service in 2009, plus an additional 558 MW in communications, transportation, and assorted other non-grid-connected, specialized applications. The approach used to develop the estimate, based on shipment data, provides an upper estimate of the size of the PV stock, including both grid-based and off-grid PV. It will overestimate the size of the stock, because shipments include a substantial number of units that are exported, and each year some of the PV units installed earlier will be retired from service or abandoned. c Includes combined heat and power plants and electricity-only plants in the commercial and industrial sectors; and small on-site generating systems in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors used primarily for own-use generation, but which may also sell some power to the grid. SOURCE: EIA (2012a, Table A16, pp. 162-163). Solar Industry Overview and Profile Structure and Location of the Industry The structure of the solar industry across its entire value chain consists of the following areas: Prepublication Version 

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96 EMERGING WORKFORCE TRENDS IN THE U.S. ENERGY AND MINING INDUSTRIES    Fundamental and Applied Research. Fundamental or basic research is performed primarily by scientists and engineers with advanced degrees, and resides mostly at universities and research laboratories. Applied research is closer to product or process development and may include industry researchers in addition to those mentioned above.  Product Development. This area is much more industry-based, involves concept development, value propositions, component design, and process design for manufacturing and production. It is typically represented by a variety of business engineering and scientific professions. Most have either a baccalaureate or graduate degree.  Manufacturing. This group is industry based and includes a more diverse workforce. Much of the engineering involves process development, automation, lean manufacturing, computer control, and robotics. Test, evaluation, and quality assurance are important requirements for all manufacturing, and the associated workforce consists of a variety of operators, technicians, and professionals with 2- or 4-year degrees.  System Design. Designers of large PV and CSP systems typically have a baccalaureate or graduate degree in engineering and are responsible for selecting, sizing, and integrating components and hardware into a solar system that meets both functional and operational requirements, and complies with all applicable codes, standards, and industry-accepted practices. Designers of residential and small commercial PV and SHC systems may be required to have an engineering license in some jurisdictions, but a 2- or 4-year technical degree may be sufficient in others.  Marketing, Sales, and Distribution. Most of the workers in this group would have a 4-year degree in a relevant field.  Construction and Installation. This is the largest group in the solar workforce and it consists of practitioners from a wide variety of construction trades, including electricians, plumbers, roofers, HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning), mechanics, carpenters, iron and steel workers, and glazers. Completion of a construction trades apprenticeship or similar vocational program, including both classroom instruction and on-the-job training, is the typical background requirement for this group of workers.  Operation and Maintenance. This group consists primarily of workers with a technical background and possessing skills in computers, controls, instrumentation, measurements, diagnostics and troubleshooting, and service and repair. Workers would normally have a 2- or 4-year technical degree. The heaviest concentration of U.S. solar activity, establishments, and jobs is in California, which currently employs approximately 25 percent of the solar workforce (TSF, 2011). The top 10 states in terms of the number of establishments are California, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Arizona, Texas, Florida, Colorado, Massachusetts, and Ohio.1 In terms of installed PV capacity, the top 10 states are California, New Jersey, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New York, North Carolina, Texas, and Nevada.                                                              1 The term “solar establishments” refers to the range of solar activities, including installation, manufacturing, sales and distribution, project development, and other (i.e., utilities, financial, legal, etc.).  Prepublication Version 

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EMERGING SECTORS 97 Size and Employment In the absence of BLS data, TSF’s National Solar Jobs Census series is considered the most comprehensive study on solar jobs. The Census 2012 identified 119,016 solar workers as of September 2012 (TSF, 2012). Approximately 90 percent of workers who satisfied TSF’s definition of a solar worker (i.e., someone who uses at least 50 percent of their time for solar- related activities) spent 100 percent of their time for solar work. Thus, although these are not full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs, these are considered “direct” jobs and the 50-percent metric is a reasonable proxy for measuring the solar workforce. The reason for this definition is that some jobs—for example, that of an electrician working for an electrical contractor—may involve both solar and nonsolar activities. If the solar activities over the year constitute 50 percent or more of the electrician’s time, then the job is counted as one solar job. Therefore, the number of FTE solar jobs is somewhat less than 119,000. Despite the weak economy, the number of solar jobs grew approximately 13.2 percent between August 2011 and September 2012, which is about six times the employment growth rate for the nation as a whole. Table 3.3 shows the changes for various job categories. TABLE 3.2 Solar Job Categories, Numbers of Jobs, Growth Rates, and Projections for 2010-2013 2012-2013 2011 2011-2012 2013 Expected Jobs Growth Projected Growth Subsector 2010 Jobs (Revised) 2012 Jobs Rate (%) Employment Rate (%) Installation 43,934 48,656 57,177 17.5 68,931 21 Manufacturing 24,916 37,941 29,742 21.6 32,313 9 Sales and 11,744 13,000 16,005 23.1 19,549 22 distribution Project 7,988 — 9,098 14 development Other 12,908 5,548 8,105 46.1 9,551 18 Total 93,502 105,145 119,016 13.2 139,442 17 SOURCE: Adapted from TSF (2012). Challenges There are a number of challenges to the growth of solar markets. They include a lack of economic growth; dependence on federal, state, and utility incentives in a depressed economy; limited consumer knowledge of solar products, applications, and their benefits; difficulty in obtaining financing for solar projects; and a shortage of an adequately trained workforce. Public Policy and Regulation Issues Solar industry growth over the last decade was in large part due to government and utility policies, related incentive programs, and regulatory changes that occurred. Some of the more important of these are RPSs, solar-specific set-asides, solar renewable energy credits and credit Prepublication Version 

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148 EMERGING WORKFORCE TRENDS IN THE U.S. ENERGY AND MINING INDUSTRIES FIGURE 3.18 Number of projects using CO2-EOR: worldwide, United States and the Permian Basin, West Texas. SOURCE: Melzer (2012, p. 4). FIGURE 3.19 Location and sequestration formation type for small-scale pilot injection tests supported by the U.S. DOE Regional Sequestration Partnerships. SOURCE: DOE (2010a, p. 9). Prepublication Version

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EMERGING SECTORS 149 TABLE 3.20 Global Carbon Capture and Storage Projects in 2012 Name Location Capture Type Volume of CO2 Storage Date of (MTPA) Type Operation Shute Creek Gas United States Precombustion (gas EOR 1986 7 Processing Facility processing) Sleipner CO2 Norway Precombustion (gas Deep 1996 Injection processing) 1 saline formation Val Verde Natural United States Precombustion (gas EOR 1972 Gas Plants processing) 1.3 Great Plains United Precombustion EOR 2000 Synfuels Plant and States/Canada (synfuels) with Weyburn-Midale 3 MMV Project Enid Fertilizer United States Precombustion EOR 1982 Plant (fertilizer) 0.7 In Salah CO2 Algeria Precombustion (gas Deep 2004 Storage processing) 1 saline formation Snøhvit CO2 Norway Precombustion (gas Deep 2008 Injection processing) 0.7 saline formation Century Plant United States Precombustion (gas 5 (and 3.5 from EOR 2010 processing) construction) NOTE: Four of these projects are located in the United States. All of the CCS projects are associated with gas processing or precombustion separation of CO2, namely synfuel or fertilizer production. EOR = enhanced oil recovery; MMV = monitoring, mitigation, and verification; MTPA = million tons per annum. SOURCE: Modified from GCCSI (2011, Table 1, p.11). Used with permission from the Global CCS Institute. Eight development-scale projects are pumping from 0.7 to 5 million tonnes underground annually. In addition, the United States is the world leader in CO2-EOR, with more than 70 projects using more than 50 Mt per year of CO2, although most of this is from natural underground reservoirs. An extensive network of pipelines between CO2 sources and sinks exists today. Regulations motivated primarily for protecting drinking water resources have been developed for siting, monitoring, and closing geological storage projects (EPA, 2011). For projects that are purely for sequestration, one unresolved issue is how to deal with postclosure liability in the event that leakage occurs. Several legislative attempts to address this issue have been undertaken. Large-scale deployment of CCUS is unlikely until this issue is resolved. Again, CO2-EOR remains the exception as project developers routinely hold liability for these projects. Prepublication Version

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150 EMERGING WORKFORCE TRENDS IN THE U.S. ENERGY AND MINING INDUSTRIES Sequestration Technology Description For this study, the focus is only on the utilization and sequestration components of CCUS technology, as the remainder of the workforce is not engaged in the geosciences. Carbon dioxide can be sequestered in oil and gas reservoirs, coal beds, or salt-water saltwater-filled sedimentary rocks (see Figure. 3.20). Both sandstone and carbonate formations are suitable. In the future, it is also possible that other rock types, including basalt, could be used to sequester CO2. Suitable formations are typically greater than 1 km deep and most importantly, are overlain by thick, low-permeability seals composed of shale, anhydrite, or low-permeability dolomite (IPCC, 2005). Selecting a suitable sequestration site requires extensive geological characterization and model development, typically by teams of sedimentary geologists, geophysicists, and modelers. FIGURE 3.20 Current options for sequestering CO2 in subsurface geological formations. SOURCE: Reprinted with permission from CO2CRC. The technology for pumping CO2 underground is well developed, based on over four decades of experience in the CO2-EOR industry. Well drilling and completion technology, pumps, and surface equipment are all available. Rigs and rig crews used for oil and gas exploration and production are appropriate for drilling injection and monitoring wells for geological storage projects. The requirements for cementing injection wells for geological sequestration differ from a typical oil and gas well and special provisions must be made to meet the regulatory requirements to fully cement the well throughout its entire length. Prepublication Version

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EMERGING SECTORS 151 CO2-EOR, the largest utilization option, involves injecting supercritical CO2 into an oil field. When mixed with oil, CO2 lowers the viscosity and reduces the density of the oil, leading to improved recovery. For certain types of oil, at elevated pressures and temperatures, oil and water can become miscible, meaning they become a single fluid. Under these conditions, oil recovery can be improved dramatically. As shown in Figure 3.21, the bank of mobile oil is swept to the extraction well, sometimes involving the injection of water to further increase recovery through the so-called WAG (water-alternating-gas) process. Successful CO2-EOR operations require sophisticated reservoir engineering calculations, advanced geological modeling, and well completion technologies. FIGURE 3.21 Schematic showing the processes of CO2-enhanced oil recovery. SOURCE: ARI/Melzer (2010, Fig. 1, p. 3). However, unlike oil and gas production, where monitoring tends to focus on injection and extraction rates and wellhead pressures, CO2 sequestration requires tracking the location of the CO2 plume, ensuring that it is not leaking back to the surface, and quantifying the amount of CO2 sequestered. Monitoring techniques include seismic imaging, wellhead and formation pressure testing, well logging, groundwater monitoring, as well as a number of techniques for directly detecting and measuring leakage into the atmosphere (Benson, 2007). Seismic imaging and pressure monitoring are well-developed tools, but application for the purposes of a sequestration project requires specialized interpretation to comply with regulatory requirements. Numerical simulations are routinely used to predict the performance of sequestration sites and CO2-EOR projects, determine how many wells are needed for injection, assess the magnitude of the pressure buildup and determine how far it extends from the injection well, and maximize trapping of CO2 in the sequestration formation. These are sophisticated mathematical tools that require specialized education, training, and experience to use them competently. Again, experience from the oil and gas industry is transferable, but numerical simulation for geological Prepublication Version

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152 EMERGING WORKFORCE TRENDS IN THE U.S. ENERGY AND MINING INDUSTRIES sequestration requires greater emphasis on thermodynamics, geochemical interactions, and geomechanical phenomena than is typically required in the oil and gas industry. Protection of drinking water is the primary driver for existing CCUS regulations. Although geological sequestration formations will be much deeper than drinking water resources, protecting them will require developing a complete model of the geology, hydrogeology, geochemistry, and geomechanics, from the depth of the sequestration formation to the surface. Traditionally, subsurface scientists have focused on either shallow systems (e.g., vadose zone, drinking water aquifers), hydrocarbon resources (oil, gas, coal), or mineral resources. Successful sequestration will facilitate the development of a more holistic view of earth resources, which requires knowledge of a number of potentially interacting resources simultaneously. The DOE has created seven CCS training centers to address workforce issues. The training centers (in Texas, Wyoming, Illinois, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Washington, and Georgia) provide sequestration-specific coursework for training and retraining workers for this industry. Training center activities include developing self-sustaining technology development programs, providing short- courses on CCS technologies, developing networks for outreach and community engagement, and coordinating regional training efforts. Regional Distribution of Prospective CCUS Sites Although it is difficult to forecast where and how quickly the CCUS industry will develop, prospective locations for CCUS can be determined by identifying regions where CO2 sources and geological formations suitable for sequestration are colocated. Particularly promising areas for large-scale implementation of CCUS include the Gulf Coast states, portions of the Midwest, the Great Plains, and oil and gas fields throughout the United States (see Figure 3.22). FIGURE 3.22. Location of existing sources of CO2 and prospective sites for CO2-EOR and geological sequestration. NOTE: Dots show the location of existing CO2 emissions from large stationary sources and the shading shows the locations of favorable geological formations. SOURCE: DOE (2010b, p. 13). Prepublication Version

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EMERGING SECTORS 153 CCUS Occupational Work Categories and Workforce Estimates The CCUS occupational work categories can be divided into groups corresponding to the stages of a project, including: site screening, selection, and characterization; site design and approval; construction; operations; postinjection monitoring; and site closure (as illustrated in Figure 3.23). Specific workforce needs during each project stage are given in Table 3.21. A rough estimate of the size of the workforce is in the range of 70-180 workers per million tonnes of CO2 injected.1 Consequently, if large-scale implementation of CO2-EOR is realized, and the amount of CCUS quadruples from today’s 50 Mt/yr to 200 Mt/yr by 2030, a workforce of 14,000 to 36,000 workers would be needed. This would correspond to about 3-8 percent of today’s oil and gas workforce of about 434,600.2 More accelerated estimates for the rate of increase suggest that the industry could scale up by a factor of 10 between now and 2030 (Kuuskraa et al., 2011). In this case, a workforce the size of anywhere from 35,000 to 90,000 (about 8 to 20 percent of the existing oil and gas workforce) would be needed. Another approach to estimating the 2030 workforce is based on the fraction of CO2-EOR today. Assuming that the number of workers needed is proportional to the fraction of the oil produced using CO2-EOR (6 percent of the workforce of 434,600), then, if we quadruple the amount of CO2-EOR, a workforce of about 100,000 workers, or 23 percent, would be needed. The size of the needed workforce relative to the size of the existing industry suggests that, although not insignificant, for the foreseeable future, the CCUS geosciences workforce will represent a modest fraction of the overall oil and gas workforce. These estimates are highly speculative and uncertain. However, the general conclusion that the CCUS workforce in 2030 will be a small fraction of today’s existing oil and gas workforce is a reasonable assumption. On the other hand, if a U.S. climate policy restricting CO2 emissions is enacted, workforce requirements could be greater than those described here. 1 Employment statistics for a prospective CCUS industry are not available. These estimates are determined on the basis of a cost of $10 to $25 per tonne of CO2 injected (Bajura, 2009). Additionally, it is assumed that 50 percent of this is labor cost and that the average salary in the industry is $70,000 per year. 2 2010 employment for NAICS codes 211, 213111, and 213112. See Table 2.1 in Chapter 2. Prepublication Version

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154 EMERGING WORKFORCE TRENDS IN THE U.S. ENERGY AND MINING INDUSTRIES FIGURE 3.23 Stages of a CCUS project. The line is a conceptual representation of the cumulative level of effort for the work at each phase of the project. SOURCE: Courtesy of John Tombari, Schlumberger. TABLE 3.21 Specific Workforce Needs During Each Stage of a CCUS Project CCUS Project Stage Workforce Needs Site screening Geologists; geophysicists; drillers; field crews for data acquisition; health, safety, and environmental professionals; project managers Site selection and Geologists and petrophysicists; geomechanics; reservoir engineers/petroleum characterization engineers; geochemists and chemical engineers; geophysicists and seismologists; hydrogeologists; geochemists; drillers and drill crews; field crews for data acquisition; economists; health, safety, and environmental professionals; project managers Site design and Well completion engineers; drilling engineers; reservoir engineers/petroleum approval engineers; geochemists and chemical engineers; geologists and petrophysicists; hydrogeologists; production/injection engineers; geophysicists and seismologists; health, safety, and environmental professionals; economists; project managers Construction Project managers; well drillers and rig crews; geologists and petrophysicists; pipeline construction crews; health, safety, and environmental professionals; well completion engineers; drilling engineers; reservoir engineers/petroleum engineers Operations Well-field operators and maintenance; reservoir/petroleum engineers; geochemists and chemical engineers; geophysicists; hydrogeologists; health, safety, and environmental professionals; project managers Postinjection Geophysicists; hydrogeologists; geochemists; reservoir/petroleum engineers; monitoring health, safety, and environmental professionals; project managers Site closure Completion engineers; workover crews; geophysicists; health, safety, and environmental professionals; project managers SOURCE: Sally Benson. Prepublication Version

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EMERGING SECTORS 155 Workforce Issues: A Good News and Bad News Story The good news is that the geological sequestration workforce straddles two well- developed industry workforces—the environmental consulting industry3 and the oil and gas industry. Consequently, with some retraining as discussed above, there is a well-developed and highly competent workforce able to jump-start this industry. Therefore, for the foreseeable future, unless the United States enacts a strong climate change policy, there is likely to be a sufficiently large workforce with the right skills, provided it can have the specialized training to augment their knowledge specific to sequestration. The bad news is that over the long term, however, unless we can sustain a reversal in the decades-long decline in student recruitment into the geosciences, the lack of a strong geosciences workforce could limit implementation of CCS. Deployed at a scale where about 20 percent of U.S. CO2 emissions reductions are provided by CCS, the scale of the CCS industry is expected to be about the same size as today’s natural gas industry. Providing a workforce that can meet these needs, on top of an already stressed workforce for the oil and gas industry will be a formidable challenge unless more students enter the geosciences workforce. One positive trend seen in universities across the United States is that students who normally would not be interested in working in the oil and gas industry are choosing to do their graduate studies in CCS. Motivated by contributing to solving the global warming problem, they enter a scientific discipline heretofore populated primarily by petroleum engineers. However, unless we are able to provide employment opportunities in this field, we will discourage those who have chosen this path. A clear and firm commitment of the government to solving these problems is crucial for having a workforce prepared to deal with these global challenges. Concrete actions that are under way to address workforce issues in the short term include:  More than a dozen universities are now providing sequestration classes as part of the upper division and graduate school curriculum;  Universities are now matriculating dozens of M.S. and Ph.D. students whose research focuses on geological sequestration of CO2;  Major geosciences societies (e.g., Society of Petroleum Engineers, American Geophysical Union, American Chemical Society, American Association of Petroleum Geologists) have workshops or technical sessions at major international meetings focused on geological sequestration of CO2;  Joint-industry projects (JIPs) are sponsoring research and development, which provides training and retraining opportunities for reservoir engineers and geophysicists;  Several CCS training programs (Research Experience in Carbon Sequestration4 [RECS], International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas Programme,5 Australia) have been established to augment traditional graduate student geosciences curricula; and  DOE has established CCS Regional Training Centers. 3 The environmental consulting industry provides engineering, scientific, construction, and operations services to private-sector and industrial clients related to addressing issues of air pollution assessment and control, groundwater remediation, site restoration, mitigation of ecosystem impacts, and environmental impact assessments of new projects or for due diligence during acquisitions and mergers. 4 http://recsco2.org/ 5 http://www.ieaghg.org/ Prepublication Version

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156 EMERGING WORKFORCE TRENDS IN THE U.S. ENERGY AND MINING INDUSTRIES Conclusions 3.33 Carbon capture and sequestration is unlikely to become a significant industry absent government policies, incentives, and regulations for large reductions in CO2 emissions. 3.34 The production of oil and projects using CO2-EOR can be expected to continue to grow. 3.35 Employment statistics for a prospective CCUS industry are not available. However, speculative estimates indicate that, if large-scale implementation of CO2-EOR is realized and the amount of CCUS quadruples from today’s levels by 2030, a workforce of 14,000 to 36,000 would be needed. More accelerated estimates suggest that 35,000 to 90,000 workers, or even 100,000 workers might be needed. A reasonable assumption is that the CCUS workforce in 2030 will be a small fraction of today’s oil and gas workforce. 3.36 The geological sequestration workforce straddles the environmental consulting industry and the oil and gas industry. With some retraining, there is a workforce that can jump-start this industry. Therefore, for the foreseeable future, unless the United States enacts a strong climate change policy, there is likely to be a sufficient workforce with the right skills, provided it can have the specialized training specific to sequestration. 3.37 Unless student recruitment into the geosciences can be sustained, the lack of a strong geosciences workforce could limit CCUS implementation. 3.38 It is very important to sustain support for graduate school research in CCUS. Recommendations The following recommendations should be initiated as quickly as possible and some will take longer than others to become fully operational. The recommendations are ordered and labeled in terms of when they would be expected to be operational. All of the recommended actions are expected to continue for the long term. 3.11 The committee recommends that DOE, industry, institutions of higher education, and other involved organizations consider continuing support for DOE-initiated training programs for CCUS. (Short Term) 3.12. Industry, government, industrial and professional organizations, and educators should consider ways to encourage students to enter the geosciences, which provide a breadth of opportunities to not only provide the energy we need from fossil fuels, but to reduce their emissions through CCUS. (Medium Term) 3.13. The committee recommends that industry, government, industrial and professional organizations, and educational institutions consider providing research and educational support for the next generation of “earth resources engineers” who have a more holistic and integrated understanding of the interactions between the anthrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere, and near-surface and deep geological systems— and who are prepared to develop and manage the next generation of energy and Prepublication Version

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EMERGING SECTORS 157 mineral resources to support human well-being, while restoring and protecting the natural environment. (Medium Term) In addition to these recommendations, the Shared Recommendations (below) also apply for CCUS. SHARED RECOMMENDATIONS Shared Recommendations for Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 As described in Chapter 2, the following Shared Recommendations 1-5 apply across the mature industries in that chapter, and they address a range of actions that are complementary. They also apply across the emerging industries in this chapter. Other industry-specific recommendations that are important for each of the emerging industries can be found in their respective sections of this chapter. Shared Recommendations 1-5 should be initiated as soon as possible, and they are ordered and labeled in terms of when they would be expected to become fully operational. All are expected to continue for the long term. Short term is defined as 2 years or less, medium term as 2-5 years, and long term as more than 5 years. Shared Recommendation 1: To address the growing demand for trained workers, industry, potentially with government support, should take an active part in developing the workforce of the future by working closely with educational institutions at all levels. Active involvement could include, but would not be limited to, developing a curriculum that trains individuals to be “job ready” upon completion of their certification or degree. This effort would benefit from being a national initiative and having a local/community focus. In pursuing this initiative, it would be important to consider, encourage, and emulate existing educational success stories, such as the programs supported by the National Science Foundation at community colleges, and the Truckee Meadows Community College program. The other educational success stories noted in Chapter 2 that are focusing on minority outreach also would be instructive for this broader initiative. (Short Term) Shared Recommendation 2: To ensure that there are enough faculty now and in the pipeline, who are qualified to work and teach at the cutting edge of technology, the committee recommends that the government and industry consider entering into partnership to provide joint support for research programs at U.S. universities, with the goal of attracting and better preparing students and faculty, promoting innovation, and helping to ensure the relevance of university programs. (Short Term) Shared Recommendation 3: The committee recommends that the industrial parties who are working with educational institutions on workforce education and training, along with the Department of Education, urge educators to encourage students to seek STEM disciplines, and to consider realigning education in the Prepublication Version

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158 EMERGING WORKFORCE TRENDS IN THE U.S. ENERGY AND MINING INDUSTRIES K-12 curriculum to emphasize STEM education, with existing and future educators being better trained in STEM disciplines. (Short Term) Shared Recommendation 4: To provide a needed enhancement of the workforce, the committee recommends that industry and educators pursue efforts to attract nontraditional workers (who predominantly are minorities and women) into the energy and mining fields. This initiative would benefit from being a broad, national initiative and having a local/community focus. In pursuing this initiative, it would be important to consider, encourage, and emulate existing educational success stories, such as those with a focus on minority outreach (noted in Chapter 2). (Medium Term) Shared Recommendation 5: Industry and educators should also pursue efforts to attract more of the traditional workforce into the energy and mining fields. This initiative also would benefit from being a national initiative and having a local/community focus. Educational success stories, such as those highlighted in this report, could also offer insights for this initiative. (Medium Term) Additional Shared Recommendation for Chapter 3 In addition, to Shared Recommendations 1-5 (above), the following Shared Recommendation 6 also applies across the emerging industries in this chapter. Shared Recommendation 6 also should be initiated as soon as possible. It is expected to become fully operational in the long term and to continue for the longer term. Shared Recommendation 6: The Bureau of Labor Statistics should consider partnering with the renewable industries to effectively develop more granular and up-to-date data on their occupations. (Long Term) Prepublication Version