REVIEW OF THE
RESEARCH PROGRAM OF THE
U.S. DRIVE PARTNERSHIP

Fourth Report

Committee on Review of the U.S. DRIVE Research Program, Phase 4

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

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REVIEW OF THE RESEARCH PROGRAM OF THE U.S. DRIVE PARTNERSHIP Fourth Report Committee on Review of the U.S. DRIVE Research Program, Phase 4 Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS   500 Fifth Street, NW  Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. DE-AC26-08NT06206 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-0-26831-8 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-26831-1 Copies of this report are available in limited supply free of charge from the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 943, Washington, DC 20001; (202) 334-3344. Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibil- ity given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scien- tific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON REVIEW OF THE U.S. DRIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM, PHASE 4 VERNON P. ROAN, University of Florida (professor emeritus), Gainesville, Chair R. STEPHEN BERRY, NAS,1 University of Chicago (professor emeritus) DAVID L. BODDE, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina KATHRYN BULLOCK, Coolohm, Inc., Blue Bell, Pennsylvania DENNIS A. CORRIGAN, DC Energy Consulting, LLC, Troy, Michigan GLENN A. EISMAN, H2Pump, LLC, Latham, New York, and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York W. ROBERT EPPERLY, Consultant, Mountain View, California DAVID E. FOSTER, University of Wisconsin-Madison GERALD GABRIELSE, NAS, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts LINOS JACOVIDES, NAE,2 Delphi Research Labs (retired), Grosse Pointe, Michigan HAROLD H. KUNG, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois GENE NEMANICH, Chevron Hydrogen Systems (retired), Scottsdale, Arizona ROBERT J. NOWAK, Consultant, Rehoboth Beach, Delaware BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, DaimlerChrysler Corporation (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan CONSTANTINE SAMARAS, RAND Corporation, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania R. RHOADS STEPHENSON, National Aeronautics and Space Administration/ Jet Propulsion Laboratory (retired), La Cañada, California KATHLEEN C. TAYLOR, NAE, General Motors Corporation (retired), Falmouth, Massachusetts BRIJESH VYAS, Bell Labs, LGS Innovations, Florham Park, New Jersey Project Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Senior Board/Program Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant DANA CAINES, Financial Associate 1 NAS = member of National Academy of Sciences. 2 NAE = member of National Academy of Engineering. iv

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BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ANDREW BROWN, JR., NAE,1 Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan, Chair WILLIAM F. BANHOLZER, NAE, Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan MARILYN BROWN, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta WILLIAM CAVANAUGH III, Progress Energy (retired), Raleigh, North Carolina PAUL A. DeCOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia NARAIN HINGORANI, NAE, Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California ROBERT J. HUGGETT, Consultant, Seaford, Virginia DEBBIE NIEMEIER, University of California, Davis DANIEL NOCERA, NAS,2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey DAN REICHER, Stanford University, Stanford, California BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, DaimlerChrysler Corporation (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan GARY ROGERS, FEV, Inc., Auburn Hills, Michigan ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas MARK H. THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York City Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Senior Board/Program Director DANA CAINES, Financial Associate DAVID COOKE, Research Associate ALAN CRANE, Senior Scientist JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer/Associate Director LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator ALICE WILLIAMS, Senior Project Assistant JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant 1 NAE = member of National Academy of Engineering. 2 NAS = member of National Academy of Sciences. v

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Preface The current U.S. DRIVE (Driving Research and Innovation for Vehicle Effi- ciency and Energy Sustainability) Partnership was formed in 2011 and, although it has a different emphasis, it is similar in concept to its predecessors—the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership and the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV). Thus, even though the present review is referred to as Phase 4—the fourth review of the old FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership—it is the first review since the new U.S. DRIVE Partnership was formed. However, the charter for the new Partnership was released only in late February 2012, and neither the revised technical and cost targets nor the roadmap had been updated as of early March 2012. From a practical standpoint, even though the change in emphasis toward nearer­-term technologies (especially more electrification and a greater use of biofuels) was well known during the writing of the Phase 3 review,1 the National Research Council’s Committee on Review of the U.S. DRIVE Research Program, Phase 4, measured progress relative to the existing roadmap and targets. Even though individual targets will undoubtedly be updated by the new Partnership, changes for many technologies are likely to be small, and some probably will not be changed at all. Regardless of the target updates or lack thereof, a charge to the committee is to report on progress, especially between Phases 3 and 4. (The state- ment of task for the committee is presented in Chapter 1, in the section entitled “Committee Approach and Organization of This Report.”) Moreover, since the charter for the newly formed U.S. DRIVE Partnership was only recently released, 1National Research Council. 2010. Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership: Third Report. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. vii

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viii PREFACE observations on progress toward technical targets and target dates for almost all of the efforts between Phases 3 and 4 are based on existing FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership targets. The present review will be the only report for Phase 4 on the now U.S. DRIVE Partnership. The report provides an overview of the structure and man- agement of the Partnership. Also discussed are adequacy and progress as well as major achievements and technical problem areas associated with the Partnership goals. The committee makes recommendations in those areas in which it sees the possibility of improvement. Vernon P. Roan, Chair Committee on Review of the U.S. DRIVE Research Program, Phase 4

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Acknowledgments The Committee on Review of the U.S. DRIVE Research Program, Phase 4, wishes to thank the members of the U.S. DRIVE Partnership, all of whom con- tributed a significant amount of time and effort to this National Research Council (NRC) study by giving presentations at meetings, responding to requests for information, or providing valuable information. The committee especially thanks Christy Cooper, Director, U.S. DRIVE Partnership, Office of Vehicle Technolo- gies, U.S. Department of Energy, for being so responsive to the committee’s many requests for information. The chair also recognizes the committee members and the staff of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES) for their hard work in organizing and planning committee meetings and their individual efforts in gathering information and writing sections of the report. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this inde- pendent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsive- ness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Jay Baron, Center for Automotive Research, Paul Blumberg, NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Andrew Brown, Jr., NAE, Delphi Corporation, and Chair, BEES, Harry Cook, NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), ix

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x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Matthew Fronk, Matt Fronk and Associates, Trevor Jones, NAE, Electrosonics Medical, Inc., Fritz Kalhammer, Consultant, and Electric Power Research Institute (retired), John Kassakian, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, James F. Mathis, NAE, Exxon Corporation (retired), Gary Rogers, FEV, Inc., and member, BEES, Robert W. Shaw, Jr., Aretê Corporation, and Richard Teets, Delphi Corporation (retired). Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or rec- ommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Lawrence T. Papay, NAE, PQR, LLC. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accor- dance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 14 Background, 14 U.S. DRIVE Partnership, 15 Scope, Goals, and Targets, 18 Organization of the Partnership, 20 A Portfolio of Vehicle and Fuel Technologies, 23 Role of the Federal Government, 24 Committee Approach and Organization of This Report, 25 References, 29 2 CROSSCUTTING ISSUES 32 Program Decision Making, 32 Safety, Codes and Standards, 40 The Grid Interaction Technical Team, 42 Environmental Implications of Alternative Pathways, 46 References, 50 3 VEHICLE SUBSYSTEMS 53 Advanced Combustion Engines, Emission Control, and Hydrocarbon Fuels, 53 Fuel Cells, 65 Onboard Hydrogen Storage, 78 Electrochemical Energy Storage, 88 xi

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xii CONTENTS Electric Propulsion and Electrical Systems, 99 Materials, 105 References, 110 4 HYDROGEN, ALTERNATIVE FUELS, AND ELECTRICITY 112 Fuel Pathways, 112 Hydrogen Production, 116 Hydrogen Delivery and Dispensing, 128 Biofuels and U.S. DRIVE, 129 Natural Gas Opportunities for U.S. DRIVE, 131 Electricity As an Energy Source for Vehicles, 134 Response to Phase 3 Recommendations, 138 References, 142 5 ADEQUACY AND BALANCE OF THE PARTNERSHIP 144 Recommendation, 154 References, 154 APPENDIXES A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members 157 B Recommendations from the National Research Council’s Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership: Third Report 165 C Organizational Chart for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy 175 D Committee Meetings and Presentations 177 E Acronyms and Abbreviations 181

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Tables, Figures, and Box TABLES 2-1 Alignment of Activities in Department of Energy Programs and Their Relationship to U.S. DRIVE, 37 3-1 Advanced Combustion and Emission Control Efficiency Baselines (2010) and Stretch Goals (2020), 56 3-2 Fuel Cell Stack and Stack Component Progress in Relation to the U.S. DRIVE 2010 and 2017 Targets, 70 3-3 FY 2010-FY 2012 Hydrogen Storage Research and Development B ­ udget and FY 2013 Budget Request, 80 3-4 Onboard Hydrogen Storage Technical Targets, 2010, 2017, and ­Ultimately, 81 3-5 Current Status of Various Onboard Hydrogen Storage Technologies, 82 3-6 Recent Hydrogen Storage Technology Projects Awarded by the Department of Energy, 85 3-7 Department of Energy Technical Targets for Energy Storage Technologies for Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), 2010; Plug-in HEVs (PHEVs), 2015; and Electric Vehicles (EVs), 2020, 91 3-8 Status of Electric Vehicle Battery Performance, Current Status Versus Technical Targets for All-Electric Vehicles (AEVs), 2020, 92 4-1 Draft Targets (2015, 2020, and Ultimate) and Current Status for Hydrogen Production Using Water Electrolysis ($/kg H2), 121 xiii

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xiv TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOX 5-1 Fuel Cell Technologies Program Funding Distribution, FY 2009 Through FY 2012, 146 5-2 FY 2009 Through FY 2012 DOE VTP Budget Distribution and E ­ stimated Funding for Projects Related to U.S. DRIVE (or Freedom- CAR) and 21st Century Truck Partnership (21CTP) Goals, 148 5-3 Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Budget Summary, FY 2011 Through FY 2013 (Request), 153 FIGURES 1-1 A technology vision of how vehicles and fuels may evolve over time, leading to reduced petroleum consumption and emissions, 19 1-2 Organizational structure of the U.S. DRIVE Partnership, 21 2-1 Department of Energy estimation of well-to-wheels greenhouse gas emissions for a projected state of technologies in 2035-2045 for a future midsize car, 48 3-1 Predicted comparative total greenhouse gas emissions for current spark ignition engines (SIEs) and potential 2035 propulsion systems, 55 3-2 Department of Energy advanced combustion engine research and development (R&D) funding—FY 2010 to FY 2012, 62 3-3 Spider chart of fuel cell performance results versus targets for various years, 68 3-4 Cost estimate on a dollars per kilowatt ($/kW) basis for the fuel cell system, not including onboard hydrogen storage, 71 3-5 Historical and current Department of Energy budgets for hydrogen and fuel cell research and development (R&D), FY 2003 through FY 2012, 73 4-1 Cost-reduction progress between 2007 and 2011 in membrane elec- trolysis stacks, 122 5-1 Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy planned program funding, by organization, FY 2012 (esti- mated), 152 C-1 Organizational chart for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 176 BOX 4-1 The Plug-in Vehicle and the U.S. Electric Supply System, 135