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COMMITTTEE ON TRANSITIONS TO ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES AND FUELS
DOUGLAS M. CHAPIN, Chair, NAE,1 MPR Associates, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia
RALPH BRODD, Broddarp of Nevada, Henderson
GARY COWGER, GLC Ventures, LLC, Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
JOHN M. DECICCO, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
GEORGE C. EADS, Charles River Associates (retired), Washington, District of Columbia
RAMON ESPINO, University of Virginia, Charlottesville
JOHN M. GERMAN, International Council for Clean Transportation, Ann Arbor, Michigan
DAVID L. GREENE, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Knoxville, Tennessee
JUDITH GREENWALD, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, Arlington, Virginia
L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, NAE, Arkema, Inc. (retired), Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania
JOHN HEYWOOD, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
VIRGINIA McCONNELL, Resources for the Future, Washington, District of Columbia
STEPHEN J. McGOVERN, PetroTech Consultants LLC, Voorhees, New Jersey
GENE NEMANICH, ChevronTexaco Corporation (retired), Scottsdale, Arizona
JOHN O’DELL, Edmunds, Inc., Orange, California
ROBERT F. SAWYER, NAE, University of California, Berkeley
CHRISTINE S. SLOANE, Sloane Solutions, LLC, Kewadin, Michigan
WILLIAM H. WALSH, JR., Consultant, McLean, Virginia
MICHAEL E. WEBBER, University of Texas at Austin
Project Staff
ALAN T. CRANE, Senior Scientist and Study Director
JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
JONNA HAMILTON, Program Officer (until December 2011)
EVONNE TANG, Senior Program Officer (beginning December 2011)
DAVID W. COOKE, Associate Program Officer
ALICE V. WILLIAMS, Senior Program Assistant
LANITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator
DANA CAINES, Financial Manager
Consultants
DAN MESZLER, Meszler Engineering Services
STEVE PLOTKIN, Argonne National Laboratory
MARC MELAINA, Consultant
MICHAEL P. RAMAGE, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired)
JAMES R. KATZER, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired)
GARY W. ROGERS, FEV, Inc.
DEAN TOMAZIC, FEV, Inc.
AARON BIRCKETT, FEV, Inc.
_______________________
1NAE = Member, National Academy of Engineering.
BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
ANDREW BROWN, JR., Chair, NAE,1 Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan
WILLIAM BANHOLZER, NAE, Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan
MARILYN BROWN, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
WILLIAM CAVANAUGH III, Progress Energy (retired), Raleigh, North Carolina
PAUL DeCOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York
CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station
SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia
NARAIN HINGORANI, NAE, Independent Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California
ROBERT HUGGETT, Independent Consultant, Seaford, Virginia
DEBBIE NIEMEIER, University of California, Davis
DANIEL NOCERA, NAS,2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
DAN REICHER, Stanford University, Stanford, California
BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, Daimler-Chrysler (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
GARY ROGERS, FEV, Inc., Auburn Hills, Michigan
ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas
MARK THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego
RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York City
Staff
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director
DANA CAINES, Financial Associate
DAVID W. COOKE, Associate Program Officer
ALAN T. CRANE, Senior Scientist
K. JOHN HOLMES, Associate Director
LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator
ALICE WILLIAMS, Senior Program Assistant
JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant
_______________________
1National Academy of Engineering.
2National Academy of Sciences.
Preface
The U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet is responsible for about half the petroleum consumed in this nation and about 17 percent of its greenhouse gas emissions. Concerns over national security and climate change have increased interest in alternative ways to power the fleet.
Many technologies, with widely varying levels of current capability, cost, and commercialization, can reduce light-duty vehicle petroleum consumption, and most of these also reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, any transition to achieve high levels of reduction is likely to take decades. The timeframe of this study goes out to 2050. Projecting the cost and performance of technologies out that far entails many uncertainties. The technical issues alone are extraordinarily complex and interrelated. Further, its statement of task also asked the Committee on Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels to consider the related policy options.
The committee’s analyses, while exploratory and not definitive, having significant uncertainty, indicate that the costs and benefits of large reductions in petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions will both be substantial. Its work also suggests that policy will be an essential element in achieving these reductions. Alternative vehicles and some fuels will be more expensive than their current equivalents, at least for several decades, and advanced technology could be used for increased power or other purposes rather than be focused solely on reducing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, it is critical to have a clear vision of the options and how they might be implemented if progress is to be made efficiently with a minimum of disruption and a maximum of net benefits. This report explores those options and the related issues, and it sheds light on the decisions the nation may be making.
The members of the study committee worked extraordinarily hard on this task. I am very grateful for their efforts. They represent a remarkably broad and accomplished group of experts. Given the complex nature of the task at hand, producing a report that was satisfactory in every detail to every member was challenging. Given the difficulty we have had in achieving consensus, I will not attempt to summarize the result here. The report speaks for itself.
The committee and I greatly appreciate the efforts made by our highly qualified consultants and the many others who contributed directly to our deliberations via presentations and discussions and the many authors on whose work we relied.
The committee operated under the auspices of the NRC’s Board on Energy and Environmental Systems. We owe a special debt of gratitude to James Zucchetto, Alan Crane, Evonne Tang, David Cooke, and Alice Williams of the NRC staff. In spite of what must have
seemed like an endless succession of in-person and conference call consultations among the full committee and working groups, meetings to gather information, and revision of the text, their energy and professionalism never wavered. The committee and I personally offer our heartfelt thanks.
Douglas M. Chapin, Chair
Committee on Transitions to
Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
Acknowledgments
The Committee on Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels is grateful to the many individuals who contributed their time and efforts to this National Research Council (NRC) study.
The presentations at committee meetings provided valuable information and insights that enhanced the committee’s understanding of the technologies and barriers involved. The committee thanks the following individuals who provided briefings:
Patrick Davis, U.S. Department of Energy,
Phillip Patterson, U.S. Department of Energy,
Jacob Ward, U.S. Department of Energy,
David Howell, U.S. Department of Energy,
Jay Braitsch, U.S. Department of Energy,
Diana Bauer, U.S. Department of Energy,
Sunita Satyapal, U.S. Department of Energy,
Fred Joseck, U.S. Department of Energy,
David Danielson, ARPA-E,
Austin Brown, National Renewable Energy Laboratory,
Andy Aden, National Renewable Energy Laboratory,
David Green, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
Steve Plotkin, Argonne National Laboratory,
Bill Charmley, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Robert Fri, Consultant,
Mike Ramage, Consultant,
Robbie Diamond, Electrification Coalition,
Mark Finley, BP,
Alan Krupnick, Resources for the Future,
Virginia McConnell, Resources for the Future,
Linda Capuano, Marathon Oil Company,
Sascha Simon, Mercedes Benz,
Ben Knight, Honda,
Dan Sperling, University of California, Davis, and
Reiko Takemasa, Pacific Gas and Electric Company.
The committee owes special thanks to Michael Ramage (NAE) and James Katzer (NAE), who generously volunteered their time and expertise to assist in many complex and difficult issues. This report has benefited greatly from their contributions. The members of the committee and the staff deeply regret the death of Jim Katzer in November 2012.
The committee also appreciates the contributions of the following personel from FEV, Inc., who helped in reviewing the methodology and results of the vehicle analysis: Gary Rogers, Dean Tomazic, and Aaron Birckett.
This report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of the independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Menahem Anderman, Advanced Automotive Batteries,
Paul N. Blumberg, NAE,1 Independent Consultant,
Andrew Brown, NAE, Delphi Corporation,
Lawrence D. Burns, NAE, University of Michigan,
Robert Epperly, Independent Consultant,
Albert R. George, Cornell University,
Chris T. Hendrickson, NAE, Carnegie Mellon University,
Jason D. Hill, University of Minnesota, St. Paul,
Maryann N. Keller, Maryann Keller & Associates, LLC,
Joan M. Ogden, University of California, Davis,
John M. Reilly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Bernard I. Robertson, NAE, DaimlerChrysler Corporation (retired),
Gary W. Rogers, FEV, Inc., and
R.R. Stephenson, Independent Consultant.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Elisabeth M. Drake, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (retired), and Trevor O. Jones, NAE, ElectroSonics Medical. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
_______________________
1National Academy of Engineering.
Contents
2 ALTERNATIVE VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES: STATUS, POTENTIAL, AND BARRIERS
2.1 Introduction and Overall Framework for Analyses
2.2 Vehicle Fuel Economy and Cost Assessment Methodology
2.2.2 Vehicle Cost Calculations
2.3 Load Reduction (Non-Drivetrain) Technologies
2.3.2 Reduced Rolling Resistance
2.3.4 Improved Accessory Efficiency
2.4 Drivetrain Technologies for Reducing Fuel Consumption
2.4.1 Conventional Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles
2.4.2 Conventional Hybrid Electric Vehicles
2.5.1 Batteries for Plug-In Electric Vehicles
2.5.2 Automotive Battery Packs
2.5.4 Battery Technology for Future Applications
2.5.6 Barriers to the Widespread Adoption of Electric Vehicles
2.6 Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
2.6.1 Current Technology for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
2.6.2 FCEV Cost and Efficiency Projections
2.8.1 Potential Evolution of a Midsize Car Through 2050
2.8.2 Technology Results, Performance, and Costs
2.9 Comparison of FCEVs with BEVs
3.1.1 The Scope of Change Required
3.1.3 Developing Trends in the Fuels Market
3.1.4 Study Methods Used in the Analysis
3.1.5 Costs of Alternative Fuels
3.1.6 Investment Costs for Alternative Fuels
3.1.7 GHG Emissions from the Production and Use of Alternative Fuels
3.2.7 Regional or Local Effects
3.2.10 GHG Reduction Potential
3.3 Electricity as a Fuel for Light-Duty Vehicles
3.3.3 Grid Impact of Plug-in Electric Vehicles
3.3.5 Regional and Local Effects
3.4.1 The Attraction of Hydrogen
3.4.3 Current Status of the Market
3.4.4 Hydrogen Infrastructure Definition
3.4.5 Hydrogen Dispensing Costs and GHGs
3.4.6 Hydrogen Infrastructure Needs and Cost
3.5 Natural Gas as an Automobile Fuel
3.5.4 Safety of Natural Gas and Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles
3.8 Carbon Capture and Storage
3.9 Resource Needs and Limitations
4 CONSUMER ATTITUDES AND BARRIERS
4.3 Factors in Consumers’ Choices
4.6 How Consumers Value Fuel Economy
4.10 Infrastructure Availability
5 MODELING THE TRANSITION TO ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES AND FUELS
5.2 Modeling Approach and Tools
5.3 Results from Runs of VISION Model
5.3.3 Results of Initial VISION Runs
5.4.1 Comparing LAVE-Trans and VISION Estimates
5.4.2 Analysis of Transition Policy Cases with the LAVE-Trans Model
5.4.3 Energy Efficiency Improvement and Advanced Biofuels
5.4.4 Emphasis on Pricing Policies
5.4.5 Plug-in Electric Vehicles
5.4.6 Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Cases
5.4.7 Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles
5.4.8 Plug-in Electric Vehicles and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
5.5 Comparison to Previous Work
5.6 Adapting Policy to Changes in Technology
5.7 Simulating Uncertainty About the Market’s Response
6 POLICIES FOR REDUCING GHG EMISSIONS FROM AND PETROLEUM USE BY LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES
6.1 Policies Influencing Automotive Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
6.1.6 Decision Making Through the Matrix of Policy Arenas
6.2 Ways to Influence Petroleum Use and GHG Emissions Effects in the LDV Sector
6.3 Policies Aimed at Reducing Vehicle Energy Intensity
6.3.1 Vehicle Energy Efficiency and GHG Emissions Standards
6.3.3 Subsidies for More Fuel-Efficient Vehicles and Fees on Less Fuel-Efficient Vehicles
6.3.4 Motor Fuel Taxes as an Incentive to Purchase More Fuel-Efficient Vehicles
6.3.5 A Price Floor Target for Motor Fuels
6.3.6 Policies to Change the Size and Weight Composition of the LDV Fleet
6.3.7 Assessment of Vehicle Fuel Economy Improvement Strategies
6.4 Policies to Reduce Petroleum Use in or GHG Emissions Impacts of Fuel
6.4.1 Tax Incentives for Fuels and Their Infrastructure
6.4.2 Fuel-Related Regulations
6.4.4 Possible Alternative to RFS2
6.4.5 California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard
6.5 Policies to Impact Vehicle Miles Traveled
6.5.1 Historical and Projected Future Growth in LDV VMT
6.5.2 Reducing the Rate of Growth of VMT by Increasing Urban Residential Density
6.5.3 Reducing the Rate of Growth of VMT Through the Use of Pricing Strategies
6.5.4 Reducing the Rate of Growth of VMT Through Other Policies
6.5.5 Summary of the Impact of Policies to Reduce the Rate of Growth of VMT
6.5.6 Policies to Improve the Efficiency of Operation of the LDV Transport Network
6.6 Policies Impacting the Innovation Process
6.7 Policies Impacting Public Support
7.2 Policies Targeting Petroleum Use
7.3 Policies to Reduce GHG Emissions Associated with LDV Fuels
7.4 Policies to Reduce the Rate of Growth of VMT
7.5 Policies to Encourage Research and Development, Demonstration, and Deployment
7.6 The Need for an Adaptive Policy Framework
7.7 The Need for Public Information and Education
D Reports on Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections to 2050
E Glossary, Conversion Factors, and Acronyms and Abbreviations
_______________________
1Note that Appendixes D through H appear only in the electronic version of this report, available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=18264.
Select Acronyms and Abbreviations
AEO |
Annual Energy Outlook |
AFV |
alternative fuel vehicle |
bbl |
barrel |
bbl/d |
barrels per day |
BEV |
battery electric vehicle |
Btu |
British thermal unit |
CAA |
Clean Air Act |
CAFE |
Corporate Average Fuel Economy |
CCS |
carbon capture and storage |
CNG |
compressed natural gas |
CNGV |
compressed natural gas vehicle |
CO2 |
carbon dioxide |
CO2e |
carbon dioxide equivalent |
CTL |
coal to liquid (fuel) |
EERE |
Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy |
EIA |
Energy Information Administration |
EISA |
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 |
EOR |
enhanced oil recovery |
EPAct |
Energy Policy Act |
ETA |
Energy Tax Act |
FCEV |
hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle |
FFV |
flex fuel vehicle |
gge |
gallon of gasoline equivalent |
GHG |
greenhouse gas |
GREET |
Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation model |
GTL |
gas to liquid (fuel) |
H2 |
hydrogen |
HEV |
hybrid electric vehicle |
ICE |
internal combustion engine |
ICEV |
internal combustion engine vehicle |
IHUF |
Indexed Highway User Fee |
ILUC |
indirect land-use change |
IPCC |
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
LCA |
life-cycle assessment |
LCFS |
Low Carbon Fuel Standard |
LDV |
light-duty vehicle |
Li-ion |
lithium ion |
LT |
light truck |
MMTCO2e |
million metric ton(s) of CO2 equivalent |
mpg |
miles per gallon |
mpgge |
miles per gallon of gasoline equivalent |
NAAQS |
National Ambient Air Quality Standards |
NEMS |
National Energy Modeling System |
NHTSA |
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration |
NOx |
mono-nitrogen oxides, including nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) |
PEV |
plug-in electric vehicle |
PHEV |
plug-in hybrid electric vehicle |
quad |
quadrillion British thermal units (of energy) |
RFS |
Renewable Fuel Standard |
RFS2 |
Renewable Fuel Standard, as amended by EISA |
RIN |
Renewable Identification Number |
tcf |
trillion(s) of standard cubic feet |
VMT |
vehicle miles traveled |
_______________________
NOTE: A more complete list of acronyms and abbreviations is given in Appendix E of the electronic version of this report, available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=18264.