A

Statement of Task

The NRC will appoint an ad hoc study committee to conduct a comprehensive analysis of energy use within the light-duty vehicle transportation sector, and use the analyses to conduct an integrated study of the technology and fuel options (including electricity) that could reduce petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. As was accomplished with the NRC Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies: A Focus on Hydrogen study, the study will address the following issues over the time frame out to 2050:

• Assess the current status of light-duty vehicle technologies and their potential for future improvements in terms of fuel economy and costs including:

—Advanced conventional ICE and hybrid-electric vehicles, including improved combustion and rolling resistance, and weight reduction (safety implications of lighter weight vehicles will be considered);

—All-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles;

—Hydrogen fueled ICE and fuel cell vehicles;

—Biofueled vehicles; and

—Natural gas vehicles.

• Assess the status and prospects for current and future fuels and electric power that would be needed to power the vehicles. A variety of alternative fuels will be considered such as hydrogen, fuels derived from fossil feedstocks, and different biofuels derived from biomass feedstocks.

• Develop scenarios or estimates of the rate at which each of the vehicle technologies considered might be able to penetrate the market and what would be the associated costs, greenhouse gas emissions and petroleum consumption impacts out to 2050. This would also include the infrastructure needs either for production of the vehicles or supplying the energy requirements for the vehicles. Costs would be put on a consistent basis to serve as a better index of comparing options. Scenarios will consider technology as well as policy options and consider the likelihood of achieving 50 percent reduction in petroleum consumption by 2030 as well as 80 percent reduction in petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In addition to technology, potential reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) will also be considered.

• Identify the barriers that might exist in transitioning to these vehicle and fuel technologies.

• Consider and compare, as appropriate, the results to those obtained in recent National Academies studies as well as in other outside analyses and make comparisons based on similar assumptions and cost and benefit calculations.

• Recommend improvements in, and priorities for, the federal R&D program activities to accelerate the development of the most promising technologies.

• Suggest policies and strategies for achieving up to 80 percent reduction in petroleum consumption and carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 through commercial deployment of the light-duty vehicle technologies analyzed in the study.

• Write a report documenting the analyses, conclusions, and recommendations.

To the extent possible the committee will consider issues relating to vehicle duty cycles, regional distinctions, and technology development timelines and will build on the recent work of the National Academies reports as well as other recent studies that have been conducted.



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A Statement of Task The NRC will appoint an ad hoc study committee to production of the vehicles or supplying the energy conduct a comprehensive analysis of energy use within the requirements for the vehicles. Costs would be put on light-duty vehicle transportation sector, and use the analyses a consistent basis to serve as a better index of com- to conduct an integrated study of the technology and fuel paring options. Scenarios will consider technology options (including electricity) that could reduce petroleum as well as policy options and consider the likelihood consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. As was accom- of achieving 50 percent reduction in petroleum con- plished with the NRC Transitions to Alternative Transporta- sumption by 2030 as well as 80 percent reduction in tion Technologies: A Focus on Hydrogen study, the study will petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emis- address the following issues over the time frame out to 2050: sions by 2050. In addition to technology, potential reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) will also · Assess the current status of light-duty vehicle tech- be considered. nologies and their potential for future improvements · Identify the barriers that might exist in transitioning in terms of fuel economy and costs including: to these vehicle and fuel technologies. — dvanced conventional ICE and hybrid-electric A · Consider and compare, as appropriate, the results to vehicles, including improved combustion and those obtained in recent National Academies studies rolling resistance, and weight reduction (safety as well as in other outside analyses and make com- implications of lighter weight vehicles will be parisons based on similar assumptions and cost and considered); benefit calculations. — ll-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles; A · Recommend improvements in, and priorities for, — ydrogen fueled ICE and fuel cell vehicles; H the federal R&D program activities to accelerate the — iofueled vehicles; and B development of the most promising technologies. — atural gas vehicles. N · Suggest policies and strategies for achieving up to 80 · Assess the status and prospects for current and future percent reduction in petroleum consumption and car- fuels and electric power that would be needed to bon dioxide emissions by 2050 through commercial power the vehicles. A variety of alternative fuels will deployment of the light-duty vehicle technologies be considered such as hydrogen, fuels derived from analyzed in the study. fossil feedstocks, and different biofuels derived from · Write a report documenting the analyses, conclu- biomass feedstocks. sions, and recommendations. · Develop scenarios or estimates of the rate at which each of the vehicle technologies considered might To the extent possible the committee will consider issues be able to penetrate the market and what would be relating to vehicle duty cycles, regional distinctions, and the associated costs, greenhouse gas emissions and technology development timelines and will build on the petroleum consumption impacts out to 2050. This recent work of the National Academies reports as well as would also include the infrastructure needs either for other recent studies that have been conducted. 163