TABLE D.1 Potential Relative Vehicle Petroleum Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Vehicle Efficiency Improvements
|Propulsion System||Petroleum Consumption
|Greenhouse Gas Emissionsa|
|Relative to 2005 gasoline ICE||Relative to 2035 gasoline ICE||Relative to current gasoline ICE||Relative to 2035 gasoline ICE|
|2005 gasoline HEV||1.00||—||1.00||—|
|2005 turbocharged gasoline||0.90||—||0.90||—|
|2005 hybrid electric vehicle (HEV)||0.75||—||0.75||—|
|2035 turbocharged gasoline||0.60||0.90||0.60||0.90|
|2035 plug-in hybrid (PHEV)||0.20||0.30||0.35-0.45||0.55-0.70|
|2035 battery electric vehicle (BEV)||None||0.35-0.50||0.55-0.80|
|2035 hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV)||None||0.30-0.40||0.45-0.60|
NOTE: These estimates assume that vehicle performance (maximum acceleration and power-to-weight ratio) and size remain the same as today’s average new-vehicle values. That is, the improvements in propulsion efficiency are used solely to decrease fuel consumption rather than to offset increases in vehicle performance and size. Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 0.05. BEVs and HFCVs are expected to have shorter driving ranges than PHEVs between rechargings or refuelings.
a Greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity used in 2035 PHEVs, 2035 BHEVs, and 2035 HFCVs are estimated from the projected U.S. average electricity grid mix in 2035 (Kromer and Heywood, 2008). Greenhouse gas emissions from hydrogen production are estimated for hydrogen produced from natural gas.
SOURCE: Bandivadekar et al. (2008). Estimates based on assessments by An and Santini (2004); Wohlecker et al. (2007); Cheah et al. (2007); NPC (2007); and NRC (2004).
These values assume fleet performance and interior size are essentially the same as those of vehicles coming out on the market today, although the load is reduced via lightweighting (20 percent weight reduction), aerodynamics (25 percent reduction in vehicle drag), and rolling resistance (33 percent reduction in tire rolling-friction coefficient). The values in the table are meant to represent what could be achieved, not what is likely to be achieved.
D.1.2 Incremental Purchase Cost by Vehicle Type
These fuel economy improvements are obtained at a premium. Table D.2 depicts the estimated increase in vehicle cost (compared to today’s car and truck average prices for a new vehicle). These cost estimates are based on a number of studies examining current and future vehicle technology costs for manufacturers. An additional 40 percent mark-up is assumed to account for indirect costs, reflecting with the 1.4 retail price equivalent what a consumer would actually pay for the vehicle. However, different manufacturers may choose to subsidize particular technologies with different deployment strategies in mind, so these costs are subject to large uncertainty.