TABLE D.2 Estimated Additional Cost to Purchaser of Advanced Vehicles Relative to Baseline 2005 Average Gasoline Vehicles
|Additional Retail Price (2007 dollars)|
|Propulsion System||Car||Light Truck|
|2005 gasoline ICEV||0||0|
|2005 diesel ICEV||1,700||2,100|
|2005 hybrid HEV||4,900||6,300|
|2035 gasoline ICEV||2,000||2,400|
|2035 diesel ICEV||3,600||4,500|
|2035 hybrid HEV||4,500||5,500|
NOTE: Costs listed are additional costs only, relative to baseline average new car and light truck purchase prices (in 2007 dollars) that were calculated as follows:
• Average new car: $14,000 production cost × 1.4 retail price equivalent = an average purchase price of $19,600; and
• Average new light truck: $15,000 × 1.4 = $21,000. For the purpose of these estimates, the PHEV all-electric driving range is 30 miles; the BEV driving range is 200 miles. Advanced battery and fuel-cell system prices are based on target battery and fuel-cell costs.
SOURCE: Bandivadekar et al. (2008).
Because these alternative powertrains are at an emerging stage of deployment, it is difficult to ascertain what the vehicle mix will look like in the future. For example, while the NRC report Transitions to Alternative Transport Technologies: A Focus on Hydrogen (NRC, 2008) concluded that up to 2 million hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) could be on the road by 2020, it is unlikely that such a rapid transformation would take place, given the infrastructural needs of a hydrogen-powered fleet.
Table D.3 is an attempt by the Committee on America’s Energy Future to project what the likely future vehicle fleet mix could look like, focusing in particular on alternative powertrains. These numbers are for new sales only and do not represent the total fleet mix. The committee did not foresee significant deployment of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs), or HFCVs without significant technical progress resulting in significant cost reduction below the levels indicated in Table D.2.
Table D.4 depicts how consumption would change given such a potential vehicle mix. The committee suggested that in the future, some of the reduction in fuel consumption for a fleet comprised of vehicles equivalent to today will be offset by changes in the fleet (increased vehicle performance, size, and weight). There are two scenarios—the first (optimistic) would meet the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards outlined in Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) (35 mpg by 2020), as required; the second (conservative) would see those standards delayed by 5 years and put less of an emphasis on fuel economy. Neither scenario considered BEVs or HFCVs. In both scenarios, advanced powertrains are imagined to make up more than half of the new vehicle fleet in 2035, resulting in the optimistic case of a 100 percent increase in fuel efficiency up to 50 mpg. For reference, the most recent proposed rule for the 2017-2025 model years (MYs) by the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has a CAFE standard of 40.9 mpg by MY2021 with a conditional second phase leading to a 49.6 mpg fleet-wide average by MY2025.