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FIGURE D.20 Major influences on the simulated GHG emissions for the U.S. LDV fleet in 2050.

consumption of such vehicles is also a significant contributor. Scrappage is another strong contributor because it helps set the rate at which new technology penetrates the fleet. Because plug-in and HEVs are not expected to be a significant fraction of the fleet in this work, assumptions about their sales and the emissions from the grid are much less significant to future scenarios than VMT or well-to-wheels emissions from gasoline.

D.17 REFERENCES

An, F., and D. Santini. 2004. “Mass impacts on fuel economies of conventional vs. hybrid electric vehicles.” SAE Technical Paper 2004-01-0572. Warrendale, Pa.: SAE International.

ANL (Argonne National Laboratory). 2011. Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption Displacement Potential Up to 2045. ANL/ESD/11-4. Argonne, Ill.: Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory. July.

Bandivadekar, A.P., K. Bodek, L. Cheah, C. Evans, T. Groode, J. Heywood, E. Kasseris, K. Kromer, and M. Weiss. 2008. On the Road in 2035: Reducing Transportation’s Petroleum Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Laboratory for Energy and the Environment Report No. LFEE 2008-05 RP. Cambridge, Mass.: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. July.

Bastani, P., J.B. Heywood, and C. Hope. 2012. The effect of uncertainty on U.S. transport-related GHG emissions and fuel consumption out to 2050. Transportation Research, Part A: Policy and Practice 46(3):517-548.

Burbank, C.J. 2009. Strategies for Reducing the Impact of Surface Transportation on Global Climate Change. Prepared for the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. Washington, D.C.: Parsons Brinckerhoff. February.

Cheah, L., and J. Heywood. 2008. “Meeting CAFE standards by 2020 and beyond.” Research Brief, Sloan Automotive Laboratory. Cambridge, Mass.: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. November.



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