FIGURE 2.10 Car Incremental cost versus 2010 baseline ($26,341 retail price)—Optimistic case.


FIGURE 2.11 Light truck incremental cost versus 2010 baseline ($32,413 retail price)—Optimistic case.

           by their established application in portable communication/computer devices, prospects for short-term return on R&D investments are substantial.

  • Infrastructure is discussed in Chapter 3, but it should be noted that the barriers facing hydrogen are more formidable than those facing electricity. A brand new infrastructure for producing and distributing hydrogen would have to be built in concert with FCEV manufacturing. Neither is viable without the other, and the investments required both for manufacturing vehicles and hydrogen are extremely large. Both industries would require guarantees that the other will produce as promised, and that probably will entail a government role.


  • Large increases in fuel economy are possible with incremental technology that is known now for both load reduction and drivetrain improvements. The average of all conventional LDVs sold in 2050 might achieve EPA test values of 74 mpg for the midrange case and 94 mpg for the optimistic case. Hybrid LDVs might reach 94 mpg for the midrange case and 124 mpg for the optimistic case by 2050. On-road fuel economy values will be significantly lower.
  • To obtain the efficiencies and costs estimated in this chapter, manufacturers will need incentives or regu-

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