1. Retail price equivalent (RPE),
  2. Energy cost per kilometer,
  3. Range (kilometers between refuel/recharge events),
  4. Maintenance cost (annual),
  5. Fuel availability,
  6. Range limitation for battery electric vehicles (BEVs),
  7. Public recharging availability,
  8. Risk aversion (innovator versus majority), and
  9. Diversity of make and model options available.

It also includes policy options that affect consumer choices, including new-vehicle rebates, incentivized infrastructure development, and fuel-specific taxation. Although both the LAVE-Trans and VISION models use the same committee-developed technology and cost assumption for different vehicles and fuels over time, the LAVE-Trans model represents a significant improvement over the VISION model in several ways. First, because it includes consumer behavior in the vehicle market, it is able to predict the shares of different vehicles that enter the market in response to policy and market changes, whereas VISION must assume these shares over time. Thus, LAVE-Trans is much better able to assess the types of policies that may be necessary to achieve the goals addressed in the present study. Second, LAVE-Trans can be used to assess the full range of benefits and costs of different policies. The committee’s approach to measuring benefits and costs is discussed more fully below.

5.3 RESULTS FROM RUNS OF VISION MODEL

Forecasts of the penetration rates of different types of vehicles using the VISION model must be compared to some alternative outcome in which there are no further policy actions and limited technological advances. In this analysis, two such cases are presented. One is the business as usual (BAU) case. It closely follows the AEO 2011 reference case projection to 2035 and from there is extrapolated to 2050. In this case, NHTSA CAFE and EPA GHG emission joint standards for LDVs are set out to 2016, with fuel economy continuing to increase to 2020 per the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Renewable fuel production increases in response to RFS2 (the amended Renewable Fuel Standard), but it is assumed that financial and technological hurdles facing advanced biofuel projects will delay compliance. The other case is the Committee Reference Case. It adds to the BAU case the CAFE rules that have been set through the 2025 model year, and the levels of advanced biofuels production required under RFS2 are assumed to be fully met by 2030 through the production of thermochemical cellulosic biofuel.

5.3.1 Baseline Cases

5.3.1.1 Business as Usual (BAU)

In the BAU case, new-vehicle sales increase to 22.2 million in 2050 from 10.8 million units in 2010 (a year in which sales were severely depressed due to the recession). Diesel, hybrid, and plug-in hybrid vehicles make modest gains in market share (Figure 5.1). The total stock of LDVs increases from about 220 million in 2010 to 365 million in 2050.

Fleet average on-road fuel economy improves from 20.9 miles per gallon gasoline equivalent (mpgge; equivalent to a consumption of 4.8 gge/100 mi) in 2005 to 34.7 mpgge (or 2.9 gge/100 mi) in 2050. This is consistent with the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which requires a fleetwide fuel economy test value of at least 35.5 mpg in 2020 and includes modest improvements in vehicle efficiency thereafter. This is enough to offset most of the forecasted increase in vehicle travel from 2.7 trillion to 5.0 trillion miles. Energy use increases to 159 billion gallons gasoline equivalent (billion gge) from 130 billion gge. Com-

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FIGURE 5.1 Vehicle sales by vehicle technology for the business as usual scenario.



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