Capability Surprise for
U.S. Naval Forces:
Initial Observations and Insights

Interim Report

Committee on Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces
Naval Studies Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

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Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights Interim Report Committee on Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces Naval Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. N00014-10-G-0589, DO #5 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of the Navy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-26910-0 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-26910-5 Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Naval Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON CAPABILITY SURPRISE FOR U.S. NAVAL FORCES JERRY A. KRILL, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, Co-Chair J. PAUL REASON, ADM, USN (retired), Washington, D.C., Co-Chair ANN N. CAMPBELL, Sandia National Laboratories TIMOTHY P. COFFEY, McLean, Virginia STIRLING A. COLGATE, Los Alamos National Laboratory CHARLES R. CUSHING, C.R. Cushing & Co., Inc. SUSAN HACKWOOD, California Council on Science and Technology LEE M. HAMMARSTROM, Pennsylvania State University, Applied Research Laboratory NATHANIEL S. HEINER, Northrop Grumman Corporation LEON A. JOHNSON, Brig Gen, USAFR (retired), Irving, Texas CATHERINE M. KELLEHER, University of Maryland, Brown University JEFFREY E. KLINE, Naval Postgraduate School ANNETTE J. KRYGIEL, Great Falls, Virginia THOMAS V. McNAMARA, Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems RICHARD W. MIES, ADM, USN (retired), Fairfax Station, Virginia C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Pranalytica, Inc. HEIDI C. PERRY, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Inc. GENE H. PORTER, Institute for Defense Analyses DANA R. POTTS, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company JOHN E. RHODES, LtGen, USMC (retired), Balboa, California ROBERT M. STEIN, Brookline, Massachusetts VINCENT VITTO, Lexington, Massachusetts DAVID A. WHELAN, The Boeing Company PETER G. WILHELM, Naval Research Laboratory JOHN D. WILKINSON, MIT Lincoln Laboratory NRC Staff CHARLES F. DRAPER, Director and Study Director (as of June 21, 2012) BILLY M. WILLIAMS, Study Director (through June 20, 2012) RAYMOND S. WIDMAYER, Senior Program Office MARTA V. HERNANDEZ, Associate Program Officer SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Coordinator MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer iv

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NAVAL STUDIES BOARD MIRIAM E. JOHN, Livermore, California, Chair DAVID A. WHELAN, The Boeing Company, Vice Chair TIMOTHY P. COFFEY, McLean, Virginia CHARLES R. CUSHING, C.R. Cushing & Co., Inc. JAMES N. EAGLE, Naval Postgraduate School ANUP GHOSH, George Mason University JAMES R. GOSLER, Sandia National Laboratories SUSAN HACKWOOD, California Council on Science and Technology JAMES L. HERDT, Chelsea, Alabama BARRY M. HOROWITZ, University of Virginia JAMES D. HULL, Annapolis, Maryland TAMARA E. JERNIGAN, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory BERNADETTE JOHNSON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Laboratory LEON A. JOHNSON, Irving, Texas CATHERINE M. KELLEHER, University of Maryland, Brown University JERRY A. KRILL, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory TERRY P. LEWIS, Raytheon Company RICHARD S. MULLER, University of California at Berkeley JOSEPH PEDLOSKY, Woods Hole, Massachusetts HEIDI C. PERRY, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Inc. J. PAUL REASON, Washington, D.C. JOHN E. RHODES, Balboa, California ALLAN STEINHARDT, Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc. TIMOTHY M. SWAGER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Navy Liaison Representatives RADM JAMES G. FOGGO III, USN, Director, Assessment Division, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 RADM MATTHEW L. KLUNDER, Chief of Naval Research/Director, Innovation, Technology Requirements, and Test & Evaluation, N84 Marine Corps Liaison Representative LTGEN RICHARD P. MILLS, USMC, Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command Staff CHARLES F. DRAPER, Director BILLY M. WILLIAMS, Senior Program Officer (through June 20, 2012) RAYMOND S. WIDMAYER, Senior Program Officer MARTA V. HERNANDEZ, Associate Program Officer SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Coordinator MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer v

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ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REVIEWERS This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Ruth A. David, Analytic Services, Inc. (ANSER), David J. Dorset, VADM, USN (retired), Northrop Grumman Corporation, Leslie Greengard, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, Harry W. Jenkins, Jr., MajGen, USMC (retired), Independent Consultant, Kathryn B. Laskey, George Mason University, Alton D. Romig, Jr., Lockheed Martin Corporation, Neil G. Siegel, Northrop Grumman Information Systems, and James Ward, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Laboratory. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Stephen M. Robinson, University of Wisconsin, Madison. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. vi

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CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 FRAMING THE PROBLEM—BACKGROUND ON CAPABILITY SURPRISE AND U.S. NAVAL FORCES 2 A POTENTIAL NAVAL FRAMEWORK FOR DEALING WITH SURPRISE 8 INITIAL OBSERVATIONS AND INSIGHTS 12 THE WAY AHEAD 20 ENCLOSURES A Terms of Reference 22 B Summary of Committee Meetings and Site Visit 23 C Biographies of Committee Members 25 D Acronyms and Abbreviations 35 vii