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Enclosure A
Terms of Reference
At the request of the Chief of Naval Operations, the Naval Studies Board of the
National Research Council will conduct a study to examine capability surprise—
operationally and technically related—facing U.S. Naval Forces, i.e., the U.S. Navy,
Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. Specifically, the study will:
(1) Select a few potential capability surprises across the continuum from disruptive
technologies, to intelligence inferred capability developments, through operational
deployments and assess what U.S. Naval Forces are doing (and could do) about these
surprises while mindful of future budgetary declines;
(2) Review and assess the adequacy of current U.S. Naval Forces' policies, strategies, and
operational and technical approaches for addressing these and other surprises; and
(3) Recommend any changes, including budgetary and organizational changes, as well as
identify any barriers and/or leadership issues that must be addressed for responding to or
anticipating such surprises including developing some of our own surprises to mitigate
against unanticipated surprises.
This 15-month study will produce two reports: (1) a letter report following the
third full committee meeting that provides initial observations and insights to each of the
three tasks above; and (2) a comprehensive (final) report that addresses the tasks in
greater depth.
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