Enclosure A
Terms of Reference

At the request of the Chief of Naval Operations, the Naval Studies Board of the National Research Council will conduct a study to examine capability surprise—operationally and technically related—facing U.S. Naval Forces, i.e., the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. Specifically, the study will:

(1) Select a few potential capability surprises across the continuum from disruptive technologies, to intelligence inferred capability developments, through operational deployments and assess what U.S. Naval Forces are doing (and could do) about these surprises while mindful of future budgetary declines;

(2) Review and assess the adequacy of current U.S. Naval Forces' policies, strategies, and operational and technical approaches for addressing these and other surprises; and

(3) Recommend any changes, including budgetary and organizational changes, as well as identify any barriers and/or leadership issues that must be addressed for responding to or anticipating such surprises including developing some of our own surprises to mitigate against unanticipated surprises.

This 15-month study will produce two reports: (1) a letter report following the third full committee meeting that provides initial observations and insights to each of the three tasks above; and (2) a comprehensive (final) report that addresses the tasks in greater depth.



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Enclosure A Terms of Reference At the request of the Chief of Naval Operations, the Naval Studies Board of the National Research Council will conduct a study to examine capability surprise— operationally and technically related—facing U.S. Naval Forces, i.e., the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. Specifically, the study will: (1) Select a few potential capability surprises across the continuum from disruptive technologies, to intelligence inferred capability developments, through operational deployments and assess what U.S. Naval Forces are doing (and could do) about these surprises while mindful of future budgetary declines; (2) Review and assess the adequacy of current U.S. Naval Forces' policies, strategies, and operational and technical approaches for addressing these and other surprises; and (3) Recommend any changes, including budgetary and organizational changes, as well as identify any barriers and/or leadership issues that must be addressed for responding to or anticipating such surprises including developing some of our own surprises to mitigate against unanticipated surprises. This 15-month study will produce two reports: (1) a letter report following the third full committee meeting that provides initial observations and insights to each of the three tasks above; and (2) a comprehensive (final) report that addresses the tasks in greater depth. 22