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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18270.
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Capability Surprise for
U.S. Naval Forces:
Initial Observations and Insights

Interim Report

Committee on Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces
Naval Studies Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18270.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS   500 Fifth Street, NW   Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by Contract No. N00014-10-G-0589, DO #5 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of the Navy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

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International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-26910-5

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18270.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18270.
×

COMMITTEE ON CAPABILITY SURPRISE FOR U.S. NAVAL FORCES

JERRY A. KRILL, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, Co-Chair

J. PAUL REASON, ADM, USN (retired), Washington, D.C., Co-Chair

ANN N. CAMPBELL, Sandia National Laboratories

TIMOTHY P. COFFEY, McLean, Virginia

STIRLING A. COLGATE, Los Alamos National Laboratory

CHARLES R. CUSHING, C.R. Cushing & Co., Inc.

SUSAN HACKWOOD, California Council on Science and Technology

LEE M. HAMMARSTROM, Pennsylvania State University, Applied Research Laboratory

NATHANIEL S. HEINER, Northrop Grumman Corporation

LEON A. JOHNSON, Brig Gen, USAFR (retired), Irving, Texas

CATHERINE M. KELLEHER, University of Maryland, Brown University

JEFFREY E. KLINE, Naval Postgraduate School

ANNETTE J. KRYGIEL, Great Falls, Virginia

THOMAS V. McNAMARA, Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems

RICHARD W. MIES, ADM, USN (retired), Fairfax Station, Virginia

C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Pranalytica, Inc.

HEIDI C. PERRY, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Inc.

GENE H. PORTER, Institute for Defense Analyses

DANA R. POTTS, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company

JOHN E. RHODES, LtGen, USMC (retired), Balboa, California

ROBERT M. STEIN, Brookline, Massachusetts

VINCENT VITTO, Lexington, Massachusetts

DAVID A. WHELAN, The Boeing Company

PETER G. WILHELM, Naval Research Laboratory

JOHN D. WILKINSON, MIT Lincoln Laboratory

NRC Staff

CHARLES F. DRAPER, Director and Study Director (as of June 21, 2012)

BILLY M. WILLIAMS, Study Director (through June 20, 2012)

RAYMOND S. WIDMAYER, Senior Program Office

MARTA V. HERNANDEZ, Associate Program Officer

SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Coordinator

MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18270.
×

NAVAL STUDIES BOARD

MIRIAM E. JOHN, Livermore, California, Chair

DAVID A. WHELAN, The Boeing Company, Vice Chair

TIMOTHY P. COFFEY, McLean, Virginia

CHARLES R. CUSHING, C.R. Cushing & Co., Inc.

JAMES N. EAGLE, Naval Postgraduate School

ANUP GHOSH, George Mason University

JAMES R. GOSLER, Sandia National Laboratories

SUSAN HACKWOOD, California Council on Science and Technology

JAMES L. HERDT, Chelsea, Alabama

BARRY M. HOROWITZ, University of Virginia

JAMES D. HULL, Annapolis, Maryland

TAMARA E. JERNIGAN, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

BERNADETTE JOHNSON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Laboratory

LEON A. JOHNSON, Irving, Texas

CATHERINE M. KELLEHER, University of Maryland, Brown University

JERRY A. KRILL, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory

TERRY P. LEWIS, Raytheon Company

RICHARD S. MULLER, University of California at Berkeley

JOSEPH PEDLOSKY, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

HEIDI C. PERRY, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Inc.

J. PAUL REASON, Washington, D.C.

JOHN E. RHODES, Balboa, California

ALLAN STEINHARDT, Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc.

TIMOTHY M. SWAGER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Navy Liaison Representatives

RADM JAMES G. FOGGO III, USN, Director, Assessment Division, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81

RADM MATTHEW L. KLUNDER, Chief of Naval Research/Director, Innovation, Technology Requirements, and Test & Evaluation, N84

Marine Corps Liaison Representative

LTGEN RICHARD P. MILLS, USMC, Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command

Staff

CHARLES F. DRAPER, Director

BILLY M. WILLIAMS, Senior Program Officer (through June 20, 2012)

RAYMOND S. WIDMAYER, Senior Program Officer

MARTA V. HERNANDEZ, Associate Program Officer

SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Coordinator

MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18270.
×

ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REVIEWERS

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Ruth A. David, Analytic Services, Inc. (ANSER),

David J. Dorset, VADM, USN (retired), Northrop Grumman Corporation,

Leslie Greengard, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University,

Harry W. Jenkins, Jr., MajGen, USMC (retired), Independent Consultant,

Kathryn B. Laskey, George Mason University,

Alton D. Romig, Jr., Lockheed Martin Corporation,

Neil G. Siegel, Northrop Grumman Information Systems, and

James Ward, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lincoln Laboratory.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Stephen M. Robinson, University of Wisconsin, Madison. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18270.
×
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18270.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18270.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18270.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18270.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18270.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18270.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18270.
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A letter dated December 21, 2011, to National Academy of Sciences President Dr. Ralph Cicerone from the Chief of Naval Operations, ADM Jonathan W. Greenert, U.S. Navy, requested that the National Research Council's (NRC's) Naval Studies Board (NSB) conduct a study to examine the issues surrounding capability surprise—both operationally and technically related—facing the U.S. naval services. Accordingly, in February 2012, the NRC, under the auspices of its NSB, established the Committee on Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces. The study's terms of reference, provided in Enclosure A of this interim report, were formulated by the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) in consultation with the NSB chair and director. The terms of reference charge the committee to produce two reports over a 15-month period. The present report is the first of these, an interim report issued, as requested, following the third full committee meeting.

The terms of reference direct that the committee in its two reports do the following: (1) Select a few potential capability surprises across the continuum from disruptive technologies, to intelligence inferred capability developments, through operational deployments and assess what U.S. Naval Forces are doing (and could do) about these surprises while mindful of future budgetary declines; (2) Review and assess the adequacy of current U.S. Naval Forces' policies, strategies, and operational and technical approaches for addressing these and other surprises; and (3) Recommend any changes, including budgetary and organizational changes, as well as identify any barriers and/or leadership issues that must be addressed for responding to or anticipating such surprises including developing some of our own surprises to mitigate against unanticipated surprises.

Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report highlights issues brought to the committee's attention during its first three meetings and provides initial observations and insights in response to each of the three tasks above. It is very much an interim report that neither addresses in its entirety any one element of the terms of reference nor reaches final conclusions on any aspect of capability surprise for naval forces. The committee will continue its study during the coming months and expects to complete by early summer 2013 its final report, which will address all of the elements in the study's terms of reference and explore many potential issues of capability surprise for U.S. naval forces not covered in this interim report.

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