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Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Technology Assessment Committee
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
Ocean Studies Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov-
erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from
the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi-
neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible
for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for
appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract DE-DT0001480, TO#1, between the National
Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings,
conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the
author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies
that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-26999-5
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-26999-7
Copies of this report are available in limited supply, free of charge, from the Board
on Energy and Environmental Systems, National Research Council, 500 Fifth
Street, NW, Keck 943, Washington, DC 20001; (202) 334-3344.
Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies
Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or
(202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating
society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research,
dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the
general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress
in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern-
ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the
National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter
of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding
engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem-
bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis-
ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors
engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education
and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles
M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of
Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions
in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The
Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences
by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon
its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr.
Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of
Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology
with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal
government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the
Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in pro-
viding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering
communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the
Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and
vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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MARINE AND HYDROKINETIC ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT COMMITTEE
PAUL GAFFNEY, NAE, Monmouth University, West Long Branch,
New Jersey, Chair
PHILIP P. BEAUCHAMP, General Electric Global Research Center,
Niskayuna, New York
MICHAEL BECK, The Nature Conservancy, Santa Cruz, California
VALERIE BROWNING, ValTech Solutions, LLC, Port Tobacco, Maryland
CHRISTOPHER J.R. GARRETT, NAS, University of Victoria, Canada
ANNETTE GRILLI, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett
J. ANDREW HAMILTON, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute,
Moss Landing, California
TUBA OZKAN-HALLER, Oregon State University, Corvallis
ELIZABETH FANNING PHILPOT, Southern Services Company,
Birmingham, Alabama
BHAKTA RATH, NAE, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D.C.
RAYMOND W. SCHMITT, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,
Massachusetts
JAMES THOMSON, University of Washington, Seattle
LARRY J. WEBER, University of Iowa, Iowa City
ZHAOQING YANG, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle,
Washington
Project Staff
K. JOHN HOLMES, Study Director, Board on Energy and Environmental
Systems
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Study Director, Ocean Studies Board
DAVID W. COOKE, Associate Program Officer
E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Program Assistant
LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator
DANA CAINES, Financial Manager
v
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BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
ANDREW BROWN, JR., NAE, Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan,
Chair
WILLIAM F. BANHOLZER, NAE, Dow Chemical Company, Midland,
Michigan
MARILYN BROWN, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
WILLIAM CAVANAUGH III, Progress Energy (retired), Raleigh,
North Carolina
PAUL A. DeCOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York
CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, NAE, Texas A&M University,
College Station
SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia
NARAIN HINGORANI, NAE, Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California
ROBERT J. HUGGETT, Consultant, Seaford, Virginia
DEBBIE NIEMEIER, University of California, Davis
DANIEL NOCERA, NAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University, New Jersey
DAN REICHER, Stanford University, California
BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, DaimlerChrysler Corporation (retired),
Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
GARY ROGERS, FEV, Inc., Auburn Hills, Michigan
ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas
MARK H. THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego
RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York City
Staff
JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Board Director
K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer and Associate Board Director
DANA CAINES, Financial Manager
DAVID W. COOKE, Associate Program Officer
ALAN CRANE, Senior Scientist
LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator
ALICE WILLIAMS, Senior Program Assistant
E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Program Assistant
vi
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OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
ROBERT A. DUCE, Texas A&M University, College Station, Chair
EDWARD A. BOYLE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park
SARAH W. COOKSEY, State of Delaware, Dover
CORTIS K. COOPER, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
ROBERT HALLBERG, NOAA/GFDL and Princeton University,
New Jersey
BARBARA A. KNUTH, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
GEORGE I. MATSUMOTO, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute,
Moss Landing, California
JOHN A. ORCUTT, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla,
California
STEVEN E. RAMBERG, Penn State Applied Research Lab,
Washington, D.C.
ANDREW A. ROSENBERG, Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge,
Massachusetts
DANIEL L. RUDNICK, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla,
California
PETER L. TYACK, University of Saint Andrews, United Kingdom
DON WALSH, International Maritime Incorporated, Myrtle Point,
Oregon
DAWN J. WRIGHT, Environmental Systems Research Institute,
Redlands, California
JAMES A. YODER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,
Massachusetts
Ex-Officio
MARY (MISSY) H. FEELEY, ExxonMobil Exploration Company,
Houston, Texas
Staff
SUSAN ROBERTS, Board Director
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Senior Program Officer
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Senior Program Officer
KIM WADDELL, Senior Program Officer
PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator
HEATHER CHIARELLO, Senior Program Assistant
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
vii
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Acknowledgments
The Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Technology Assessment Com-
mittee would like to extend its appreciation to each of the resource assess-
ment and validation groups, who contributed significant amounts of
time and effort by giving presentations at open sessions of the committee
meetings and by providing the committee with draft reports and addi-
tional background information. Each of the assessments represents a step
forward in understanding and characterizing a complex and dynamic
resource.
The committee would like to express its appreciation to Hoyt Battey,
Brooke White, and Caitlin Frame from the Water Power Market Accelera-
tion and Deployment Team at the U.S. Department of Energy. Their help
in coordinating committee requests with the assessment and validation
groups and their contribution of time to answer questions and discuss
critical issues and milestones was indispensable.
The chairman would also like to recognize the staff members of
the National Research Council’s Board on Energy and Environmental
S
ystems and Ocean Studies Board for organizing and planning meetings,
gathering information, and helping in report development. The efforts of
K. John Holmes, Deborah Glickson, David Cooke, and Jonathan Yanger
were invaluable to the committee’s ability to deliver a focused and timely
report.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for
their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with pro-
cedures approved by the NRC Report Review Committee. The purpose
ix
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x PREFACE
of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments
that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound
as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards
for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The
review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect
the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following
indi iduals for their review of this report:
v
Belinda Batten, Oregon State University,
Alexandra Bozec, Florida State University,
Sarah Cooksey, State of Delaware,
Robert A. Dalrymple, Johns Hopkins University,
Paul A. DeCotis, Long Island Power Authority,
Robert Holman, Oregon State University,
Edward Lovelace, Free Flow Power,
Ralph Masiello, KEMA Incorporated,
Chiang Mei, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Brian Polagye, University of Washington, and
Luis Vega, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many construc-
tive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the con-
clusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report
before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Lawrence
Papay, Review Monitor. Appointed by the National Research Council, he
was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of
this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures
and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility
for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring com-
mittee and the institution.
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Contents
Summary 1
1 Introduction 13
A Conceptual Framework for MHK Resource Assessment, 15
The “Single Number” Estimate for Resource Assessments, 24
Coordination and Consistency, 25
Report Organization, 26
2 Tidal Resource Assessment 27
Project Description, 29
Committee Comments, 31
Conclusions and Recommendations, 35
3 Wave Resource Assessment 38
Description of Wave Resource Estimate, 39
Committee Comments, 41
Conclusions and Recommendations, 46
4 Ocean Current Resource Assessment 48
Project Description, 49
Committee Comments, 51
Conclusions and Recommendations, 54
xi
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xii CONTENTS
5 Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Resource Assessment 56
Project Description, 58
Committee Comments, 59
Conclusions and Recommendations, 65
6 In-Stream Hydrokinetic Resource Assessment 67
Project Description, 71
Committee Comments, 72
Conclusions and Recommendations, 74
7 The Practical Marine and Hydrokinetic Resource Base 76
Motivation for Assessment of Practical Resource Base, 77
Practical Considerations for MHK Development, 78
Multiple-Use Planning for the Marine and Riverine
Environments, 85
Conclusions and Recommendations, 89
8 Overarching Conclusions and Recommendations 91
A Defensible Estimate of the MHK Resource, 91
Coordination for Resource Development, 94
Limitations on Comparison of Extractable MHK Resources, 95
References 97
APPENDIXES
A Department of Energy Funding Opportunity Announcements
for the Assessment of Marine and Hydrokinetic Resources 107
B Interim Letter Report 117
C Biographical Sketches 144
D Presentations and Committee Meetings 150
E Acronym List 153
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Figures, Tables, and Boxes
FIGURES
S-1 Conceptual framework developed by the committee for marine and
hydrokinetic (MHK) resource assessments, 3
1-1 Conceptual framework developed by the committee for MHK
resource assessments, 17
2-1 Turbine designs for U.S. tidal energy pilot projects, 29
3-1 A comparison of the concepts of recoverable, technical, and practical
power, 45
5-1 Barriers and concerns for OTEC deployment, 57
5-2 Global map of OTEC power density available with a 1,000-m cold
water pipe, a turbogenerator efficiency of .85, and pumping losses
of 30 percent, 60
6-1 Stream flow energy definition, 68
6-2 Conventional impounded hydropower, 69
6-3 Centerline view of an array of bed-mounted hydrokinetic turbines
deployed in a stream, 69
6-4 Plot of turbine output versus flow velocity, 70
xiii
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xiv FIGURES, TABLES, AND BOXES
7-1 Basic structure of the electric system showing an MHK resource as
the electricity generator connecting to the transmission system, 83
TABLES
1-1 MHK Resource Assessment and Validation Groups Contracted by
DOE, 15
1-2 Terminology and Definitions Used by the Assessment Groups, 18
7-1 Examples of Filters That Could Impact the Development of the
Practical MHK Resource, 79
7-2 GIS Layers Showing Environmental and Socioeconomic Constraints
Identified in the DOE Tidal Resource Assessment, 87
BOXES
S-1 The Theoretical, Technical, and Practical Resource, 4
1-1 Statement of Task, 16
1-2 The Theoretical, Technical, and Practical Resource, 22
1-3 Determining the Difference Between the Theoretical and Practical
Resource: Solar Energy as a Case Study, 23
