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Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Technology Assessment Committee Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Ocean Studies Board Division on Earth and Life Studies

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS  500 Fifth Street, NW  Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi- neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract DE-DT0001480, TO#1, between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13:  978-0-309-26999-5 International Standard Book Number-10:  0-309-26999-7 Copies of this report are available in limited supply, free of charge, from the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 943, Washington, DC 20001; (202) 334-3344. Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern- ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem- bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis- ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in pro- viding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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MARINE AND HYDROKINETIC ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT COMMITTEE PAUL GAFFNEY, NAE, Monmouth University, West Long Branch, New Jersey, Chair PHILIP P. BEAUCHAMP, General Electric Global Research Center, Niskayuna, New York MICHAEL BECK, The Nature Conservancy, Santa Cruz, California VALERIE BROWNING, ValTech Solutions, LLC, Port Tobacco, Maryland CHRISTOPHER J.R. GARRETT, NAS, University of Victoria, Canada ANNETTE GRILLI, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett J. ANDREW HAMILTON, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, California TUBA OZKAN-HALLER, Oregon State University, Corvallis ELIZABETH FANNING PHILPOT, Southern Services Company, ­Birmingham, Alabama BHAKTA RATH, NAE, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D.C. RAYMOND W. SCHMITT, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts JAMES THOMSON, University of Washington, Seattle LARRY J. WEBER, University of Iowa, Iowa City ZHAOQING YANG, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle, Washington Project Staff K. JOHN HOLMES, Study Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems DEBORAH GLICKSON, Study Director, Ocean Studies Board DAVID W. COOKE, Associate Program Officer E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Program Assistant LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator DANA CAINES, Financial Manager v

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BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ANDREW BROWN, JR., NAE, Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan, Chair WILLIAM F. BANHOLZER, NAE, Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan MARILYN BROWN, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta WILLIAM CAVANAUGH III, Progress Energy (retired), Raleigh, North Carolina PAUL A. DeCOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia NARAIN HINGORANI, NAE, Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California ROBERT J. HUGGETT, Consultant, Seaford, Virginia DEBBIE NIEMEIER, University of California, Davis DANIEL NOCERA, NAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University, New Jersey DAN REICHER, Stanford University, California BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, DaimlerChrysler Corporation (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan GARY ROGERS, FEV, Inc., Auburn Hills, Michigan ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas MARK H. THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York City Staff JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Board Director K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer and Associate Board Director DANA CAINES, Financial Manager DAVID W. COOKE, Associate Program Officer ALAN CRANE, Senior Scientist LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator ALICE WILLIAMS, Senior Program Assistant E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Program Assistant vi

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OCEAN STUDIES BOARD ROBERT A. DUCE, Texas A&M University, College Station, Chair EDWARD A. BOYLE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park SARAH W. COOKSEY, State of Delaware, Dover CORTIS K. COOPER, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California ROBERT HALLBERG, NOAA/GFDL and Princeton University, New Jersey BARBARA A. KNUTH, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York GEORGE I. MATSUMOTO, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, California JOHN A. ORCUTT, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California STEVEN E. RAMBERG, Penn State Applied Research Lab, Washington, D.C. ANDREW A. ROSENBERG, Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts DANIEL L. RUDNICK, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California PETER L. TYACK, University of Saint Andrews, United Kingdom DON WALSH, International Maritime Incorporated, Myrtle Point, Oregon DAWN J. WRIGHT, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, California JAMES A. YODER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts Ex-Officio MARY (MISSY) H. FEELEY, ExxonMobil Exploration Company, Houston, Texas Staff SUSAN ROBERTS, Board Director CLAUDIA MENGELT, Senior Program Officer DEBORAH GLICKSON, Senior Program Officer KIM WADDELL, Senior Program Officer PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator HEATHER CHIARELLO, Senior Program Assistant SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate vii

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Acknowledgments The Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Technology Assessment Com- mittee would like to extend its appreciation to each of the resource assess- ment and validation groups, who contributed significant amounts of time and effort by giving presentations at open sessions of the committee meetings and by providing the committee with draft reports and addi- tional background information. Each of the assessments represents a step forward in understanding and characterizing a complex and dynamic resource. The committee would like to express its appreciation to Hoyt Battey, Brooke White, and Caitlin Frame from the Water Power Market Accelera- tion and Deployment Team at the U.S. Department of Energy. Their help in coordinating committee requests with the assessment and validation groups and their contribution of time to answer questions and discuss critical issues and milestones was indispensable. The chairman would also like to recognize the staff members of the National Research Council’s Board on Energy and Environmental S ­ ystems and Ocean Studies Board for organizing and planning meetings, gathering information, and helping in report development. The efforts of K. John Holmes, Deborah Glickson, David Cooke, and Jonathan Yanger were invaluable to the committee’s ability to deliver a focused and timely report. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with pro- cedures approved by the NRC Report Review Committee. The purpose ix

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x PREFACE of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following indi­ iduals for their review of this report: v Belinda Batten, Oregon State University, Alexandra Bozec, Florida State University, Sarah Cooksey, State of Delaware, Robert A. Dalrymple, Johns Hopkins University, Paul A. DeCotis, Long Island Power Authority, Robert Holman, Oregon State University, Edward Lovelace, Free Flow Power, Ralph Masiello, KEMA Incorporated, Chiang Mei, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Brian Polagye, University of Washington, and Luis Vega, University of Hawaii at Manoa. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many construc- tive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the con- clusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Lawrence Papay, Review Monitor. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring com- mittee and the institution.

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Contents Summary 1 1 Introduction 13 A Conceptual Framework for MHK Resource Assessment, 15 The “Single Number” Estimate for Resource Assessments, 24 Coordination and Consistency, 25 Report Organization, 26 2 Tidal Resource Assessment 27 Project Description, 29 Committee Comments, 31 Conclusions and Recommendations, 35 3 Wave Resource Assessment 38 Description of Wave Resource Estimate, 39 Committee Comments, 41 Conclusions and Recommendations, 46 4 Ocean Current Resource Assessment 48 Project Description, 49 Committee Comments, 51 Conclusions and Recommendations, 54 xi

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xii CONTENTS 5 Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Resource Assessment 56 Project Description, 58 Committee Comments, 59 Conclusions and Recommendations, 65 6 In-Stream Hydrokinetic Resource Assessment 67 Project Description, 71 Committee Comments, 72 Conclusions and Recommendations, 74 7 The Practical Marine and Hydrokinetic Resource Base 76 Motivation for Assessment of Practical Resource Base, 77 Practical Considerations for MHK Development, 78 Multiple-Use Planning for the Marine and Riverine Environments, 85 Conclusions and Recommendations, 89 8 Overarching Conclusions and Recommendations 91 A Defensible Estimate of the MHK Resource, 91 Coordination for Resource Development, 94 Limitations on Comparison of Extractable MHK Resources, 95 References 97 APPENDIXES A Department of Energy Funding Opportunity Announcements for the Assessment of Marine and Hydrokinetic Resources 107 B Interim Letter Report 117 C Biographical Sketches 144 D Presentations and Committee Meetings 150 E Acronym List 153

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Figures, Tables, and Boxes FIGURES S-1 Conceptual framework developed by the committee for marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) resource assessments, 3 1-1 Conceptual framework developed by the committee for MHK resource assessments, 17 2-1 Turbine designs for U.S. tidal energy pilot projects, 29 3-1 A comparison of the concepts of recoverable, technical, and practical power, 45 5-1 Barriers and concerns for OTEC deployment, 57 5-2 Global map of OTEC power density available with a 1,000-m cold water pipe, a turbogenerator efficiency of .85, and pumping losses of 30 percent, 60 6-1 Stream flow energy definition, 68 6-2 Conventional impounded hydropower, 69 6-3 Centerline view of an array of bed-mounted hydrokinetic turbines deployed in a stream, 69 6-4 Plot of turbine output versus flow velocity, 70 xiii

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xiv FIGURES, TABLES, AND BOXES 7-1 Basic structure of the electric system showing an MHK resource as the electricity generator connecting to the transmission system, 83 TABLES 1-1 MHK Resource Assessment and Validation Groups Contracted by DOE, 15 1-2 Terminology and Definitions Used by the Assessment Groups, 18 7-1 Examples of Filters That Could Impact the Development of the Practical MHK Resource, 79 7-2 GIS Layers Showing Environmental and Socioeconomic Constraints Identified in the DOE Tidal Resource Assessment, 87 BOXES S-1 The Theoretical, Technical, and Practical Resource, 4 1-1 Statement of Task, 16 1-2 The Theoretical, Technical, and Practical Resource, 22 1-3 Determining the Difference Between the Theoretical and Practical Resource: Solar Energy as a Case Study, 23