BENEFITS OF DEPLOYMENT OF SSL PRODUCTS
The committee estimated the prospective benefits of reduced energy consumption from the deployment of SSL lighting products. The committee calculated benefits in two scenarios, each measured against a counter-factual baseline in which there were no impacts from EISA 2007. The first scenario calculated the savings that would accrue based on the lamp efficacy standards in EISA 2007 Section 321, and it is estimated that electricity consumption for lighting would be reduced by 514 terawatt hours (TWh9) in the residential sector and 60 TWh in the commercial, cumulative from 2012 to 2020. In a scenario with more aggressive assumptions on the improvements in the efficacies of LED luminaires, cumulative savings in the residential sector over the same time period were 939 TWh and in the commercial sector 771 TWh.10
The committee prepared a first-order comparison of the consumer life-cycle costs of lighting consumption in a further two scenarios for daily usage of lights: 3 hours per day (h/day) and 10 h/day.11 These two scenarios are representative of average daily usages in the residential and commercial sectors, and the results are found to be very sensitive to the number of hours of use. The committee found that on a life-cycle basis, warm and cool white LEDs are already cheaper than incandescent lighting and will likely be comparable to that of fluorescent lighting technologies in the near future. For applications where the daily usage is larger than 10 h/day, cool, white LEDs now have a similar consumer life-cycle cost to that of CFLs or T12 linear fluorescent tubes.
With continued U.S. government support and funding and DOE leadership, the promise of low-cost and very efficient solid-state lighting could be realized, lowering U.S. energy needs and allowing the United States to be a significant solid-state lighting manufacturer and technology provider.
9 The assumed lamp efficacies were as follows: 96 lm/W in 2010; 141 lm/W in 2012; 202 lm/W in 2015; and 253 lm/W in 2020.
10 A typically sized electric power plant of 500 megawatt capacity, operating 5,000 hours, would generate 2.5 TWh in a year.
11 The following assumptions were used: a retail electricity price of 0.11 $/kWh and a 10 percent discount rate, reflecting the implicit discount rate of the consumer. It is further assumed that a 60 W incandescent light bulb would be replaced by another lighting technology providing the same energy service (approximately 850 lumens).