ASSESSMENT OF

ADVANCED SOLID-STATE LIGHTING

Committee on Assessment of Solid-State Lighting

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

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ASSESSMENT OF ADVANCED SOLID-STATE LIGHTING Committee on Assessment of Solid-State Lighting Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by contract number DE-EE0001405 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommenda- tions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Cover: The Thomas Jefferson Memorial following a lighting system redesign in 2001 to include installation of metal halide lamps, induction lamps, and light-emitting diodes. The cove lighting application for the memorial utilizes io Lighting LLC’s Line .75 fixture, 3KHO, 45 degree beam spread in 18-inch daisy chained segments. Photograph copyright Peter Aaron/OTTO. Reprinted with permission. International Standard Book Number 13: 978-0-309-27011-3 International Standard Book Number 10: 0-309-27011-1 Copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Members and staff at the February 2012 meeting of the Committee on Assessment of Solid-State Lighting. From left to right, back row: David Cooke, Steven P. DenBaars, Michael G. Spencer, Stephen Forrest, Michael Ettenberg, Nadarajah Narendran, and Maxine Savitz; front row: Inês Azevedo, James Zucchetto, Evelyn L. Hu, Nancy E. Clanton, Gary Marchant, John G. Kassakian, Pekka Hakkarainen, Paul A. DeCotis, Wendy Davis, and Martin Offutt. Photo courtesy of LaNita Jones. iv

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COMMITTEE ON ASSESSMENT OF SOLID-STATE LIGHTING JOHN G. KASSAKIAN, NAE,1 Chair, Massachusetts Institute of Technology INÊS AZEVEDO, Carnegie Mellon University NANCY E. CLANTON, Clanton & Associates WENDY DAVIS, University of Sydney PAUL A. DeCOTIS, Long Island Power Authority STEVEN P. DenBAARS, NAE, University of California, Santa Barbara MICHAEL ETTENBERG, NAE, Dolce Technologies STEPHEN FORREST, NAE, University of Michigan PEKKA HAKKARAINEN, Lutron Electronics EVELYN L. HU, NAS2/NAE, Harvard University GARY MARCHANT, Arizona State University NADARAJAH NARENDRAN, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute MAXINE SAVITZ, NAE, Honeywell, Inc. (retired) MICHAEL G. SPENCER, Cornell University Staff JONNA HAMILTON, Study Director (through December 2011) MARTIN OFFUTT, Study Director (from December 2011) JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems DAVID COOKE, Research Associate, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator, Board on Energy and Environmental ­ ystems S ALICE WILLIAMS, Senior Project Assistant, Board on Energy and Environmental ­ ystems S E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Program Assistant, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems 1 NAE, National Academy of Engineering. 2 NAS, National Academy of Sciences. v

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BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ANDREW BROWN, JR., NAE,1 Chair, Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan WILLIAM F. BANHOLZER, NAE, The Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan MARILYN BROWN, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta WILLIAM CAVANAUGH III, Progress Energy, Raleigh, North Carolina PAUL A. DeCOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia NARAIN HINGORANI, NAE, Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California ROBERT J. HUGGETT, Consultant, Seaford, Virginia DEBBIE NIEMEIER, University of California, Davis DANIEL NOCERA, NAS,2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey DAN REICHER, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, Daimler-Chrysler Corporation (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan GARY ROGERS, FEV, Inc., Auburn Hills, Michigan ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas MARK H. THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York, New York Staff JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director DANA CAINES, Financial Associate DAVID COOKE, Research Associate ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer LaNITA JONES, Program Associate ALICE WILLIAMS, Senior Project Assistant E. JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant 1 NAE, National Academy of Engineering. 2 NAS, National Academy of Sciences. vi

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Preface Solid-state lighting (SSL) is a new technology that has evolved from a few key inven- tions involving light-emitting diodes (LEDs) in the 1960s and spurred more recently by fundamental breakthroughs in LEDs made in the 1990s. As such, SSL lighting is not a refinement of an incumbent lighting technology but has evolved in parallel with, if more rapidly than, the incandescent and fluorescent lamps familiar to consumers. As discussed in this report, SSL lighting not only can offer improvements in efficacy (i.e., the ability to deliver the same amount of light using less electricity) and improved durability and the convenience of less frequent maintenance (e.g., in roadway lighting or in aviation), but also opens up the possibility of new applications owing to the technology’s high performance in cold environments, long life, and new form factors. Whether SSL products are to achieve widespread deployment will depend on factors such as cost and consumer acceptance. Cost will depend on the needs of the basic SSL technology, including the material set of the LED device and the raw materials this implies, and the ease of manufacturing, including the effect of scale economies and learning that can be achieved during ramp-up of production—to name only a few such considerations. Technological breakthroughs—such as innovations in the design of the LED emitter devices or improved materials or manufacturing techniques—will also have a bearing on cost. The report summarizes the current state of technological readiness of the candidate technolo- gies, including organic LEDs (OLEDs), for use in SSL products and evaluates the barriers to their improved cost and performance. Acceptance by the consumer is more difficult to quantify. As discussed in the report, this will depend on factors related to the technology and also the workings of the market- place. The former include the quality of light emitted by these devices and the subjective attributes of how this is perceived by the human eye. Also of importance will be the ease of use and the useful lifetime of these devices. The latter set of factors includes the problem of high initial cost, which can be mitigated by economic incentives such as tax credits, utility-sponsored rebates, or breakthroughs in manufacturing technology. Were widespread deployment of SSL products to be achieved, one benefit would be reduced energy consumption. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) mandates higher efficacy in general lighting according to a set of targets and time- tables, of which the first has already begun. This report evaluates the likely impacts on energy use of this phase-out and, in addition, considers the benefits that might accrue in scenarios considering market penetration of the SSL products greater than the targets. vii

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viii PREFACE This report on advanced solid-state lighting was undertaken at the request of Congress in the EISA 2007. Funding has been provided by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy via the lighting program directed by James Brodrick, PhD. John G. Kassakian, Chair Committee on Assessment of Solid-State Lighting

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Acknowledgments This report was made possible through the hard work and dedication of the 13 indi­ viduals who served on the Committee on Assessment of Solid-State Lighting, whose biographies are presented in Appendix A. The data and conclusions presented in the report have benefited from a substantial amount of information provided by federal officials, academic researchers, and industry analysts and technologists who met with the committee during the open sessions of the meetings in Washington, D.C., and Woods Hole, Massachusetts. These individuals are listed in Appendix B. Special recognition is due the sponsor point-of-contact, James Brodrick, lighting pro- gram manager with the U.S. Department of Energy, who on two occasions gave substantive and informative presentations to the committee and made himself available for follow-up discussions—all of which proved invaluable to the committee’s understanding of the nature of the problem and the questions being asked. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the insti- tution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: William F. Banholzer, NAE,1 Dow Chemical, Randy Burkett, Randy Burkett Lighting Design, Inc., Makarand Chipalkatti, Osram Sylvania, Linda Cohen, University of California, Irvine, P. Daniel Dapkus, NAE, University of Southern California, Curtis Fincher, DuPont Displays, Noah Horowitz, Natural Resources Defense Council, Julia Phillips, NAE, Sandia National Laboratories, and Sue Tierney, Analysis Group. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen 1National Academy of Engineering. ix

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x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS by Elsa M. Garmire, Dartmouth College. Appointed by the NRC, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring commit- tee and the institution.

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 6 Context, 6 Study Origin, 7 Introduction to Lighting, 8 Lighting Equipment, 9 Metrics for Measuring Light Output, 9 Visible Spectrum and Quality of Light, 10 Current Lighting Consumption in the United States, 14 Content of the Report, 14 Annex, 15 References, 16 2 HISTORY OF PUBLIC POLICY ON LIGHTING 18 Introduction, 18 History of Federal Government Lighting Policy, 18 Federal Legislation, 19 DOE Lighting Program, 20 Current Federal and State Programs, 23 Federal Regulations, 23 Federal Voluntary Programs, 23 State Laws and Regulations, 24 Building Codes, 25 Model Building Codes, 25 State Building Codes, 25 Specifications for High-Performance Buildings, 26 Incentive Programs, 27 International Regulation, 28 Compact Fluroescent Lamp Case Study, 28 References, 32 3 ASSESSMENT OF LED AND OLED TECHNOLOGIES 34 An LED Primer, 35 Introduction, 35 The LED Device Structure, 36 The LED Module, 37 Metrics of Device Performance, 38 xi

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xii CONTENTS Controlling the Color Output of the LED, 40 Quantum Well Thickness and Composition, 40 Use of Phosphors, 40 Materials Issues for White LEDs, 41 Materials Growth: Mechanisms, Reactors, and Monitoring, 42 The Search for an Improved Substrate, 43 Challenges and Promises for LEDs, 44 An OLED Primer, 45 Introduction, 45 The OLED Device Structure and Operation, 45 Metrics of Device Performance, 46 Controlling the Color Output of the OLED, 47 Striped WOLEDs, 48 F/P WOLEDs, 48 Stacked WOLEDs, 48 Materials for OLEDs, 49 Key Issues for Improved Device Performance, 50 Light Outcoupling, 50 OLED Efficiency Droop, 51 Issues for OLED Device Reliability and Manufacturing, 52 OLED Reliability, 52 Manufacturing Issues, 53 Summary of OLED Challenges, 54 Cost Reduction, 54 Extended Operational Lifetime, 54 Low-Cost Light Outcoupling, 54 Summary and Comparison of LED and OLED SSL, 54 References, 55 4 ASSESSMENT OF SOLID-STATE LIGHTING PRODUCTS 57 Introduction, 57 Types of SSL Products, 57 LED Replacement Lamps, 57 Retrofit Luminaires, 59 Subcomponents of an SSL Product, 61 Lighting Controls, 65 Standards and Regulations, 67 LED Product Measurement and Performance, 67 Electric Power Quality, 68 SSL Product Costs, 69 Future Opportunities, 70 References, 70 5 SOLID-STATE LIGHTING APPLICATIONS 72 Introduction, 72 Overview of Application Types, 72 Residential, 72 Commercial, 73 Industrial, 74 Outdoor Lighting, 74 SSL Application Advantages, 75 Small Size, 75 Inherent Controllability, 75 Directional Distribution, 76 Cool Beam, 76

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CONTENTS xiii Color Characteristics, 76 Long Life, 77 Luminaires with Entirely New Form Factors, 77 SSL Application Challenges, 77 Cost, 78 System and Controls Compatibility, 78 Heat Management, 78 Power Quality, 79 Failure Process, 79 Lighting Quality Issues, 79 Evaluating SSL Lighting Applications, 80 Post-Occupancy Assessment, 82 Testing and Measurement Standards, 82 References, 83 6 SSL LARGE-SCALE DEPLOYMENT 85 Introduction, 85 SSL Industry and Markets, 85 Barriers and the SSL Value Chain, 87 Upstream Opportunities and Challenges, 87 Research and Development, 88 Midstream Opportunities and Challenges, 88 SSL Manufacturing, 89 Materials, 90 Testing and Standards, 90 Downstream Opportunities and Challenges, 92 Utility-Administered Programs and Partnerships, 93 LED End-of-Life Issues, 94 SSL Cost and Energy Savings Potential, 95 SSL Energy Savings Potential, 95 Residential and Commercial Energy Consumption Surveys, 97 Relative Cost Savings, 98 Role of Government in Aiding Widespread Adoption, 100 Outreach and Communication on Implementing Standards, 101 Federal Facilities, 103 Public Funding of Applied Energy R&D, 103 Unintended Consequences, 104 Conclusion, 104 References, 105 7 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 106 GLOSSARY 113 APPENDIXES A Committee Biographical Information 119 B Committee Activities 123 C Acronyms and Abbreviations 125

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