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PREPU UBLICATION C COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTH HER EDITORIA AL CORRECTIO ON 1 2 3 ASSESSM A MENT OF INERT F TIAL CO ONFINEM MENT F FUSION 4 TA ARGETSS 5 6 7 8 PREPUBLI ICATION C OPY— 9 SUBJECT T TO FURTHEER EDITOR IAL CORREECTION 10 11 EMBARGOED FOR RELEA ASE UNTILL 12 WE EDNESDAYY, FEBRUARRY 20, 2013 3 AT 11:00 0 A.M. EST 13 14 15 16 Pa on the Assessment of Inertial Conf anel finement Fusi Targets ion 17 Board on Ph hysics and Ast tronomy 18 Board on Energy and Environm d a mental System ms 19 Division on Engine eering and Phy hysical Scienc ces 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 THE NATIONAL ACADEMI E IES PRESS 27 Wash hington, D.C C. 28 ww ww.nap.edu 29
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PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 30 THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 31 32 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the 33 National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of 34 Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel 35 responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate 36 balance. 37 38 Support for this project was provided by Contract DE-DT0001679 between the National Academy of 39 Sciences and the Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration. Any opinions, 40 findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do 41 not necessarily reflect the view of the agency that provided support for the project. 42 43 International Standard Book Number-13: XXX-X-XXX-XXXXX-X 44 International Standard Book: X-XXX-XXXXX-X 45 46 Copies of this report are available free of charge from: 47 48 Board on Physics and Astronomy 49 National Research Council 50 The Keck Center of the National Academies 51 500 Fifth Street, N.W. 52 Washington, DC 20001 53 54 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., 55 Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington 56 metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. 57 58 Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. 59 60 Printed in the United States of America 61
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PREPU UBLICATION C COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTH HER EDITORIA AL CORRECTIO ON 62 63 64 The Nation Academy of Sciences is a private, nonpr nal o rofit, self-perpet tuating society of distinguished scholars enga d aged in 65 scientific an engineering research, dedica nd ated to the furth herance of scien and technology and to the use for the g nce eir general 66 welfare. Up the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Aca pon y n ademy has a man ndate that requir it to res 67 advise the federal governme on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralp J. Cicerone is president of the National Acad fe ent m ph s e demy of 68 Sciences. 69 70 The Nation Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under t charter of th National Acad nal f w i the he demy of Science as a es, 71 parallel orga anization of outs standing enginee ers. It is autonommous in its adm ministration and i the selection o its members, s in of sharing 72 with the Na ational Academ of Sciences the responsibilit for advising the federal gov my t ty vernment. The National Acade emy of 73 Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting natio g a onal needs, enc courages educattion and researc and ch, 74 recognizes the superior achi t ievements of eng gineers. Dr. Cha arles M. Vest is p president of the National Acade emy of Engineeriing. 75 76 The Institu of Medicine was established in 1970 by th National Aca ute e he ademy of Scien nces to secure th services of e he eminent 77 members of appropriate pro f ofessions in the examination of policy matters pe e p ertaining to the h health of the pubblic. The Institu acts ute 78 esponsibility giv to the Nation Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal under the re ven nal f s n 79 government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fine t o o e, eberg is 80 president of the Institute of Medicine. f 81 82 The National Research Co ouncil was organ nized by the Nattional Academy of Sciences in 1 1916 to associate the broad com e mmunity 83 of science and technology with the Aca y ademy’s purpose of furthering knowledge an advising the federal gover es g nd e rnment. 84 Functioning in accordance with general po g olicies determine by the Acade ed emy, the Counc has become t principal op cil the perating 85 agency of both the Nation Academy of Sciences and the National Ac b nal f cademy of Eng gineering in prooviding services to the 86 government the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. T Council is ad t, d c The dministered join by both Aca ntly ademies 87 and the Institute of Medici ine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M Vest are cha and vice cha respectively, of the d M. air air, 88 National Re esearch Council. 89 90 www w.national-academ mies.org 91
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PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 92 PANEL ON THE ASSESSMENT OF INERTIAL CONFINEMENT FUSION TARGETS 93 94 JOHN AHEARNE, Chair, NAE, Sigma Xi, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 95 DOUGLAS EARDLEY, Vice Chair, University of California, Santa Barbara 96 ROBERT DYNES, University of California, Santa Barbara 97 DAVID HARDING, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York 98 THOMAS MEHLHORN, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, District of Columbia 99 MERRI WOOD-SCHULTZ, Los Alamos, New Mexico 100 GEORGE ZIMMERMAN, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 101 102 Staff 103 104 GREG EYRING, Study Director 105 SARAH CASE, Study Director (until October 2011) 106 LANITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator 107 108 BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY 109 110 ADAM S. BURROWS, Princeton University, Chair 111 PHILIP H. BUCKSBAUM, Stanford University, Vice Chair 112 RICCARDO BETTI, University of Rochester 113 TODD DITMIRE, University of Texas, Austin 114 JAMES DRAKE, University of Maryland 115 JAMES EISENSTEIN, California Institute of Technology 116 DEBRA ELMEGREEN, Vassar College 117 PAUL FLEURY, Yale University 118 STUART J. FREEDMAN, University of California, Berkeley 119 LAURA H. GREENE, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 120 MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University 121 JOSEPH HEZIR, EOP Group, Inc. 122 MARK B. KETCHEN, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center 123 JOSEPH LYKKEN, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory 124 HOMER A. NEAL, University of Michigan 125 MONICA OLVERA DE LA CRUZ, Northwestern University 126 PAUL L. SCHECHTER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 127 BORIS I SHRAIMAN, Kavli Institute of Theoretical Physics 128 MICHAEL S. TURNER, University of Chicago 129 130 Staff 131 132 DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director 133 JAMES C. LANCASTER, Associate Director 134 DAVID B. LANG, Program Officer 135 CARYN J. KNUTSEN, Associate Program Officer 136 TERI G. THOROWGOOD, Administrative Coordinator 137 BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate 138 139 140 141 iv
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PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 142 143 BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS 144 145 ANDREW BROWN, JR., Chair, NAE,1 Delphi Corporation, Troy, MI 146 WILLIAM BANHOLZER, NAE, The Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan 147 MARILYN BROWN, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 148 WILLIAM CAVANAUGH, III, Progress Energy (retired), Raleigh, North Carolina 149 PAUL DeCOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York 150 CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 151 SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia 152 NARAIN HINGORANI, NAE, Independent Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California 153 ROBERT HUGGETT, Independent Consultant, Seaford, Virginia 154 DEBBIE NIEMEIER, University of California, Davis, California 155 DANIEL NOCERA, NAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge 156 MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 157 DAN REICHER, Stanford University, Stanford, California 158 BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, Daimler-Chrysler (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan 159 GARY ROGERS, FEV, Inc., Auburn Hills, Michigan 160 ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas 161 MARK THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego 162 RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York City 163 164 165 Staff 166 167 JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director 168 DANA CAINES, Financial Associate 169 DAVID COOKE, Program Officer 170 ALAN CRANE, Senior Scientist 171 K. JOHN HOLMES, Associate Board Director 172 LANITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator 173 ALICE WILLIAMS, Senior Program Assistant 174 JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant 175 v
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PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 176 vi