TABLE 4.4 Estimated Near-Term Inertial Fusion Energy Roadmap Development Cost Forecast, After Ignitiona


  Annual Budget (millions of 2012$)
 
Technology Application   Post-Ignition Post-Ignition/Modest Gain

DPSSL/KrF lasersb   20-30c 40-60d,e
HIF   ~10 20-30
Pulsed power   ~10 10-20
Technology development   10-20 20-40
Totals   50-70 90-150

    a The values given are capital and development costs and do not include operating costs.
    b Michael Dunne, LLNL, Presentation to the committee on February 22, 2012, and subsequent communications.
    c Ibid.
    d Ibid.
    e This is the estimated annual cost over 3 years to build and commission the single beam line laser source for LIFE.

TABLE 4.5 Estimated Inertial Fusion Energy Roadmap Facility Capital Cost Forecast (millions of dollars)a,b,c


Facility Cost
NIF upgrade (polar drive) 50-60d,e
NIF upgrade (spherical drive)f Unknowng
IRE 300-775
FTF 3,100-4,750
DEMO 6,250-9,500

    a All values include a 25 percent contingency.
    b All numbers have been escalated from 2002$ to 2012$ using the Office of Management and Budget’s GDP (Chained) Price Index (estimate for 2012), except for the NIF upgrade (polar drive), which is given in as-spent dollars.
    c All costs are capital costs and are subject to the DOE G 413.3-4 process.
    d Cost for the procurement of unique hardware, optics, and controls systems.
    e LLNL, 2012, “Polar Drive Ignition Campaign Conceptual Design,” LLNL TR-553311, submitted to NNSA in April 2012 by LLNL and revised and submitted to NNSA by LLE in September 2012.
    f If needed to obtain high gain. Some of this cost might be covered as part of the stockpile stewardship program if sufficient gain is not obtained with indirect drive.
    g The committee is unaware of any detailed cost estimate for this upgrade. The cost would depend on the options chosen. For instance, if it was deemed desirable to retain both spherical and polar drive capability (by adding an equatorial beam), the committee assumes the cost would be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. On the other hand, repositioning the existing beams would presumably cost much less but would narrow the options available to researchers.


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