National Patterns of R&D Resources

FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR
CONTENT AND METHODS

Summary of a Workshop

Michael L. Cohen and Esha Sinha, Rapporteurs

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL

OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

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Michael L. Cohen and Esha Sinha, Rapporteurs Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS  500 Fifth Street, NW  Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Govern- ing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer- ing, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropri- ate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. SES-1024012 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-28325-0 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-28325-6 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2013). National Patterns of R&D Resources: Future Directions for Content and Methods: Summary of a Workshop. Michael L. Cohen and Esha Sinha, rapporteurs. Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Acad- emy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engi­ neers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineer- ing programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is presi- dent of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences ­ in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The C ­ ouncil is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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STEERING COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR THE NSF NATIONAL PATTERNS OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT REPORTS Karen Kafadar (Chair), Department of Statistics, Indiana University William B. Bonvillian, Director, Washington, DC, Office, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Fernando Galindo-Rueda, Directorate for Science, Technology, and Industry, OECD Christopher T. Hill, School of Public Policy, George Mason University Joel L. Horowitz, Department of Economics, Northwestern University David Newman, Department of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine Stephanie S. Shipp, Science and Technology Policy Institute, Institute for Defense Analysis, Washington, DC Eric V. Slud, Center for Statistical Research and Methodology, U.S. Census Bureau Howard Wainer, National Board of Medical Examiners, Philadelphia, PA Michael L. Cohen, Senior Program Officer Esha Sinha, Associate Program Officer Agnes Gaskin, Senior Project Assistant v

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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2012-2013 Lawrence D. Brown (Chair), Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania John M. Abowd, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University David Card, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley Alicia Carriquiry, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University Constantine Gatsonis, Center for Statistical Sciences, Brown University James S. House, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan Michael Hout, Survey Research Center, University of California, Berkeley Sallie Keller, Provost, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada Lisa Lynch, Heller School for Social Policy Management, Brandeis University Sally C. Morton, Biostatistics Department, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh Ruth Peterson, Criminal Justice Research Center, Ohio State University Edward H. Shortliffe, Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University and Arizona State University Hal Stern, Ted and Janice Smith Family Foundation, Donald Bren School of Information and Computer Sciences, University of California, Irvine John Thompson, NORC at the University of Chicago Roger Tourangeau, Westat, Rockville, MD Constance F. Citro, Director vi

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Acknowledgments I would like to express my indebtedness to a number of individuals that have provided assistance in producing this report. At the National Center ­ for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES) at the National Science Foundation (NSF), I would first like to thank Lynda Carlson for initiating this project. I am also very thankful to Tom Plewes of the Committee on National Statistics (CNSTAT) at the National Research Council (NRC), who served as the initial study director and, with Lynda Carlson, who laid out the major topics to be addressed. Next, I am very pleased to be able to thank the members of the Steering Committee on Future Directions for the NSF National Patterns of Research and Development Reports, who provided their input and expertise to make this workshop a success. They expended a great deal of time and energy on behalf of this project and were extremely willing to hear other perspectives on the issues involved. I extend particular thanks to Fernando Galindi- Rueda, a steering committee member, who also provided an excellent pre- sentation at the workshop. It was a pleasure collaborating with all of them. I am also very indebted to John Jankowski and Mark Boroush of NCSES, who were extremely generous with their time and expertise, always willing to help with various requests, such as reviewing preliminary agen- das, participating in conference calls with presenters, and setting up and joining in on meetings with staff and with presenters. In addition, they both provided excellent presentations at our kick-off meeting to plan the workshop and at the workshop itself. I am also indebted to several other members of the NCSES staff, especially Ray Wolf and Jock Black for their time and input at staff meetings. vii

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viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS As is the case with all workshops, the presentations are key. We were very fortunate to hear from a wide range of experts in various aspects of research and development statistics: see the agenda (in addition to the previously mentioned Mark Boroush, Fernando Galindo-Rueda and John Jankowski): Jeff Alexander, Daniel Carr, Julie Gershunskaya, David Goldston, Martin Grueber, Kaye Husbands-Fealing, John King, Kei Koizumi, Charles Larson, and David Mowery. We are particularly ­ indebted to Daniel Carr, who served as a consultant to the study, and Julie G ­ ershunskaya, who provided presentations on data display and small-area estimation, respectively, which were targeted for application with NCSES data. I would also like to Linda Yu and her colleagues at Synthosys for providing insight into STAR METRICS. I also would like to give my sincere appreciation to the work of other CNSTAT staff. I and my fellow steering committee members are indebted to Michael Cohen and Esha Sinha, who ably supported our work and served as the rapporteurs for this volume. In addition, I am especially thankful for the personal participation of Constance F. Citro, CNSTAT director, who helped both in the initial structure of the project and at every step along the way to conclusion. I also thank Agnes Gaskin who performed her usual exemplary service on all administrative matters, including travel, meetings, and final report preparation. This workshop summary has been reviewed in draft form by indi- viduals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the NRC. The purpose of this independent review is to provide can- did and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for quality and objectivity. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: John F. Geweke, Centre for the Study of Choice, University of Technol- ogy, Sydney, Australia; Martin Grueber, Technology Partnership Practice, ­ ­ ­ B ­ attelle, Cleveland, Ohio; John King, Agricultural Economics and Rural ­ Development, USDA Office of the Chief Scientist; Charles F. Larson, Indus- trial Research Institute, Washington, DC; J. David Roessner, Center for ­ Science, Technology, and Economic Development, SRI International; and Alyson G. Wilson, research staff, IDA Science and Technology Policy Insti- tute, Washington, DC. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the report nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Alicia Carriquiry, Department of S ­ tatistics, Iowa State University. Appointed by the NRC, she was respon-

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ix sible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authors. Finally, I recognize the many federal agencies that support CNSTAT directly and through a grant from the NSF. Without their support and their commitment to improving the national statistical system, the committee work that is the basis of this report would not have been possible. Karen Kafadar, Chair Steering Committee for the Workshop on Future Directions for the NSF National Patterns of Research and Development Reports

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Contents 1 INTRODUCTION 1 Background, 3 The Workshop and This Report, 4 2 WHAT IS NATIONAL PATTERNS? 6 National Patterns of R&D Resources: Key Aspects of Data, Methods, and Reports, 6 Inputs and Timeliness, 13 Next Steps, 16 Adjustments and Categories: Discussion, 18 International and Other Countries’ Publications on R&D Statistics, 19 Comparability of U.S. Statistics, 24 3 USERS’ NEEDS 27 Purposes and Uses of National Patterns, 28 Advances in International Comparability of National Patterns Data and Reports, 38 Reporting of Additional Variables, 43 How to Improve National Patterns: Discussion, 45 xi

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xii CONTENTS 4 STATISTICAL MODELS AND ADMINISTRATIVE RECORDS AS SUPPLEMENTS TO SURVEYS 49 Using Statistical Models to Estimate R&D Funds to and from Nonprofit Institutions, 50 STAR METRICS and VIVO, 56 5 SMALL-AREA ESTIMATION 63 Overview, 63 Direct Estimators, 65 Indirect Estimators, 68 Measurement Error or Definitional Vagueness, 79 6 PRESENTATION OF INFORMATION IN NATIONAL PATTERNS 80 Basic Principles and Cognitive Science, 80 Available Tools, 83 Discussion, 89 REFERENCES 90 APPENDIXES A Acronyms and Abbreviations 95 B Workshop Agenda and Participants 97 C Biographical Sketches of Steering Committee Members and Workshop Presenters 100