A Review of the Draft 2013
National Climate Assessment

Panel to Review the National Climate Assessment

Board on Atmospheric Studies and Climate
Division of Earth and Life Studies

Board on Environmental Change and Society
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

www.nap.edu



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  A Review of the Draft 2013 National Climate Assessment Panel to Review the National Climate Assessment Board on Atmospheric Studies and Climate Division of Earth and Life Studies Board on Environmental Change and Society Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu  

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  THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract #NNH07CC79B, TO #5. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agency or any of its sub-agencies. Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu/ . Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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  The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.  

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  PANEL TO REVIEW THE NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT WARREN M. WASHINGTON (Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research KAI N. LEE (Vice Chair), The David and Lucile Packard Foundation MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University DOUG ARENT, National Energy Renewable Laboratory SUSAN K. AVERY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute ROBERT E. DICKINSON, University of Texas THOMAS DIETZ, Michigan State University DEBRA HERNANDEZ, Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association ROBIN LEICHENKO, Rutgers University MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, University of Michigan HAROON S. KHESHGI, ExxonMobil IAN ROY NOBLE, Global Adaption Institute CAMILLE PARMESAN, University of Texas KATHLEEN SEGERSON, University of Connecticut KAREN C. SETO, Yale University KATHLEEN J. TIERNEY, University of Colorado at Boulder CHARLES J. VOROSMARTY, City University of New York GLEN T. DAIGGER, CH2M Hill, Inc. EVAN DELUCIA, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign CONNIE ROSER-RENOUF, George Mason University DURLAND FISH, Yale School of Public Health NRC Staff: LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer PAUL STERN, Senior Program Officer RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator RICARDO PAYNE, Sr. Program Assistant (until August 2012) v

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  Institutional oversight for this project was provided by: BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York RICHARD (RIT) CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado SHUYI S. CHEN, University of Miami KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina PAMELA EMCH, Northrup Grumman Aerospace Systems LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Palisades, New York ISAAC HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey ANTHONY JANETOS, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland JOHN E. KUTZBACH, University of Wisconsin-Madison ARTHUR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California ROBERT J. LEMPERT, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California STEPHEN W. PACALA, Princeton University ARISTIDES A.N. PATRINOS, Synthetic Genomics RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT, The University of Chicago, Illinois KIMBERLY PRATHER, University of California, San Diego RICH RICHELS, Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., Washington, D.C. DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway JOHN T. SNOW, The University of Oklahoma, Norman CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey XUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona, Tucson NRC Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Director (until January 2013) SUSAN ROBERTS, Acting Director EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer MAGGIE WALSER, Program Officer KATIE THOMAS, Associate Program Officer LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant ELIZABETH FINKLEMAN, Program Assistant AMANDA PURCELL, Financial/Research Associate vi

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  Institutional oversight for this project was provided by: BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY RICHARD H.MOSS (Chair), Joint Global Change Research Institute, Univ. of Maryland, College Park ARUN AGRAWAL, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor ANTHONY BEBBINGTON, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts WILLIAM CHANDLER, Transition Energy, Annapolis, Maryland RUTH DEFRIES, Columbia University, New York, New York KRISTIE L. EBI, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II, Technical Support Unit, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, California MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor DENNIS OJIMA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins STEPHEN POLASKY, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis J. TIMMONS ROBERTS, Center for Environmental Studies, Brown Univ., Providence, Rhode Island JAMES L. SWEENEY, Stanford University, California GARY W. YOHE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut NRC Staff MEREDITH A. LANE, Board Director PAUL C. STERN, Senior Scholar MARY ANN KASPER, Senior Program Assistant vii

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  Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Stephen Carpenter, University of Wisconsin, Madison Elisabeth Drake, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Retired), Auburndale Paul Falkowski, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick David Lobell, Stanford University, CA Claudia Tebaldi, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ Elke Weber, Center for Research on Environmental Decisions and Center for the Decision Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY Richard Wright, National Institute of Standards and Technology (Retired), Montgomery Village, MD Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the views of the committee, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Lynn R. Goldman, George Washington University, and George M. Hornberger, Vanderbilt University, appointed by the NRC Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution. We also thank the members of the “parent” Boards to this panel (the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and the Board on Environmental Change and Society) who provided input to this activity. ix

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  Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION 3 ANSWERS TO TASK STATEMENT QUESTIONS QUESTION 1: Does the report meet the requirements of Section 106 of the GCRA? 5 QUESTION 2: Is the report responsive to the nation’s needs for information? 9 QUESTION 3: Are the key messages and graphics clear and appropriate from a 13 communications perspective? QUESTION 4: Are there any critical content areas missing from the report? 15 QUESTION 5: Are the findings documented in a consistent, transparent and 16 credible way? QUESTION 6: Does the research needs chapter address the most important gaps 16 in existing knowledge? QUESTION 7: Does the sustained assessment chapter provide an appropriate path 18 to support the development of a sustained assessment process? APPENDIXES A Compilation of Panel member comments 21 B Biographical Sketches of Panel members 109 C Statement of Task 117 xi

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