A Review of the Draft 2013
National Climate Assessment
Panel to Review the National Climate Assessment
Board on Atmospheric Studies and Climate
Division of Earth and Life Studies
Board on Environmental Change and Society
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract #NNH07CC79B, TO #5. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agency or any of its sub-agencies.
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Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advhen to the Halton on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
PANEL TO REVIEW THE NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT
WARREN M. WASHINGTON (Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research
KAI N. LEE (Vice Chair), The David and Lucile Packard Foundation
MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University
DOUG ARENT, National Energy Renewable Laboratory
SUSAN K. AVERY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute
ROBERT E. DICKINSON, University of Texas
THOMAS DIETZ, Michigan State University
DEBRA HERNANDEZ, Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association
ROBIN LEICHENKO, Rutgers University
MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, University of Michigan
HAROON S. KHESHGI, ExxonMobil
IAN ROY NOBLE, Global Adaption Institute
CAMILLE PARMESAN, University of Texas
KATHLEEN SEGERSON, University of Connecticut
KAREN C. SETO, Yale University
KATHLEEN J. TIERNEY, University of Colorado at Boulder
CHARLES J. VOROSMARTY, City University of New York
GLEN T. DAIGGER, CH2M Hill, Inc.
EVAN DELUCIA, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
CONNIE ROSER-RENOUF, George Mason University
DURLAND FISH, Yale School of Public Health
NRC Staff:
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
PAUL STERN, Senior Program Officer
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
RICARDO PAYNE, Sr. Program Assistant (until August 2012)
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park
GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York
RICHARD (RIT) CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
SHUYI S. CHEN, University of Miami
KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina
PAMELA EMCH, Northrup Grumman Aerospace Systems
LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
ISAAC HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey
ANTHONY JANETOS, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland
JOHN E. KUTZBACH, University of Wisconsin-Madison
ARTHUR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
ROBERT J. LEMPERT, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
STEPHEN W. PACALA, Princeton University
ARISTIDES A.N. PATRINOS, Synthetic Genomics
RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT, The University of Chicago, Illinois
KIMBERLY PRATHER, University of California, San Diego
RICH RICHELS, Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., Washington, D.C.
DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway
JOHN T. SNOW, The University of Oklahoma, Norman
CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey
XUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona, Tucson
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director (until January 2013)
SUSAN ROBERTS, Acting Director
EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer
MAGGIE WALSER, Program Officer
KATIE THOMAS, Associate Program Officer
LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
ELIZABETH FINKLEMAN, Program Assistant
AMANDA PURCELL, Financial/Research Associate
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY
RICHARD H.MOSS (Chair), Joint Global Change Research Institute, Univ. of Maryland, College Park
ARUN AGRAWAL, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
ANTHONY BEBBINGTON, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts
WILLIAM CHANDLER, Transition Energy, Annapolis, Maryland
RUTH DEFRIES, Columbia University, New York, New York
KRISTIE L. EBI, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II, Technical Support Unit, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, California
MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
DENNIS OJIMA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins
STEPHEN POLASKY, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
J. TIMMONS ROBERTS, Center for Environmental Studies, Brown Univ., Providence, Rhode Island
JAMES L. SWEENEY, Stanford University, California
GARY W. YOHE, Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut
NRC Staff
MEREDITH A. LANE, Board Director
PAUL C. STERN, Senior Scholar
MARY ANN KASPER, Senior Program Assistant
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Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Stephen Carpenter, University of Wisconsin, Madison
Elisabeth Drake, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Retired), Auburndale
Paul Falkowski, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick
David Lobell, Stanford University, CA
Claudia Tebaldi, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ
Elke Weber, Center for Research on Environmental Decisions and Center for the Decision Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY
Richard Wright, National Institute of Standards and Technology (Retired), Montgomery Village, MD
Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the views of the committee, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Lynn R. Goldman, George Washington University, and George M. Hornberger, Vanderbilt University, appointed by the NRC Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution.
We also thank the members of the “parent” Boards to this panel (the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and the Board on Environmental Change and Society) who provided input to this activity.
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Contents
ANSWERS TO TASK STATEMENT QUESTIONS
QUESTION 1: Does the report meet the requirements of Section 106 of the GCRA?
QUESTION 2: Is the report responsive to the nation’s needs for information?
QUESTION 4: Are there any critical content areas missing from the report?
QUESTION 5: Are the findings documented in a consistent, transparent and credible way?
QUESTION 6: Does the research needs chapter address the most important gaps in existing knowledge?
A Compilation of Panel member comments