National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×

U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities
in the 21st Century Security Environment

A Workshop Summary

Norman M. Haller, Rapporteur

Committee on U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security
Environment: A Workshop

Air Force Studies Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS    500 Fifth Street, NW   Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

This is a report of work supported by Grant FA9550-12-1-0413 between the U.S. Air Force and the National Academy of Sciences. Any views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-28547-6
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-28547-X

Copies of this report are available from:

The National Academies Press
500 Fifth Street, NW
Keck 360
Washington, DC 20001
(800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313
http://www.nap.edu

Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×

This page is blank

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×

COMMITTEE ON U.S. AIR FORCE STRATEGIC DETERRENCE CAPABILITIES IN THE 21st CENTURY SECURITY ENVIRONMENT: A WORKSHOP

GERALD F. PERRYMAN, JR., Independent Consultant, Chair

RAFAEL ALONSO, Science Applications International Corporation

ALLISON ASTORINO-COURTOIS, National Security Innovations, Inc.

W. PETER CHERRY, Independent Consultant

LOUIS A. COX, JR., Cox Associates, LLC

PAUL K. DAVIS, RAND Corporation

JERROLD M. POST, George Washington University

BRIAN SKYRMS, University of California at Irvine

MICHAEL O. WHEELER, Institute for Defense Analyses

Staff

CARTER W. FORD, Program Officer

SARAH M. CAPOTE, Research Associate

MARGUERITE E. SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×

AIR FORCE STUDIES BOARD

GREGORY S. MARTIN, GS Martin Consulting, Chair

BRIAN A. ARNOLD, Raytheon Company

CLAUDE M. BOLTON, JR., Defense Acquisition University

STEVEN R.J. BRUECK, University of New Mexico

THOMAS J. BURNS, Science Applications International Corporation

FRANK CAPPUCCIO, Cappuccio and Associates, LLC

BLAISE J. DURANTE, U.S. Air Force (retired)

DONALD C. FRASER, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory (retired)

MICHAEL J. GIANELLI, The Boeing Company (retired)

DANIEL HASTINGS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

PAUL G. KAMINSKI, Technovation, Inc.

ROBERT LATIFF, R. Latiff Associates

NANCY G. LEVESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

MARK J. LEWIS, IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute

LESTER L. LYLES, The Lyles Group

MATT L. MLEZIVA, Wildwood Strategic Concepts

C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Pranalytica, Inc.

GERALD F. PERRYMAN, JR., Independent Consultant

RICHARD V. REYNOLDS, The VanFleet Group, LLC

J. DANIEL STEWART, University of Tennessee

REBECCA WINSTON, Winston Strategic Management Consulting

Staff

TERRY J. JAGGERS, Director

DIONNA ALI, Senior Program Assistant

JESSICA R. BROKENBURR, Financial Assistant

SARAH M. CAPOTE, Research Associate

GREGORY EYRING, Senior Program Officer

CARTER W. FORD, Program Officer

CHRIS JONES, Financial Manager

MARGUERITE E. SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator

DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Program Officer

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×

Preface

Changes in the 21st century security environment require new analytic approaches to support strategic deterrence. Because current adversaries may be deterred from the use of nuclear weapons differently than were Cold War adversaries, the Air Force needs an analytic process and tools that can help determine those Air Force capabilities that will successfully deter or defeat these new nuclear-armed adversaries and assure U.S. allies. While some analytic tools are available, a coherent approach for their use in developing strategy and policy appears to be lacking. Without a coherent analytic approach that addresses the nuances of today's security environment, Air Force views of its strategic deterrence needs may not be understood or accepted by the appropriate decision makers. A coherent approach will support Air Force decisions about its strategic force priorities and needs, deter actual or potential adversaries, and assure U.S. allies.1

Strategic deterrence may now be far more difficult for the United States than during the Cold War. Compared to the Cold War bipolar, rational-actor model, new thinking is needed to cope with the complex notion of deterring other nuclear-armed or potentially nuclear-armed entities. As current nuclear non-peers become near-peers or peers, they may not act as expected. Non-peers that have or are developing nuclear weapons are often ruled by regimes that are difficult to penetrate, as well as regimes whose decision-making dynamics are difficult to interpret. Although these regimes may be considered irrational, other factors need to be taken into account, such as insular perspectives of adversaries; aberrant views of their role in their region; and historic, cultural, and religious biases, all of which affect the decision maker’s cost-benefit calculus. U.S. security depends on having the right mix of strategic options and capabilities to deal with the new challenges. The United States may find itself engaged in a conventional war with such nuclear-armed adversaries. Some postulate that preventing escalation in such circumstances will be far more difficult than peacetime deterrence was during the Cold War. Adversaries may have powerful incentives to brandish or use nuclear weapons. It is conceivable that some nuclear-armed leaders who face very bad options may take desperate gambles, accepting a high probability of making things worse in exchange for a small hope of avoiding a large loss. Before ever getting to such a point, the Air Force must be able to understand fully and articulate convincingly its capabilities to contribute to deterrence.2

In this context, the Air Force in 2012 requested that the Air Force Studies Board of the National Research Council undertake a workshop to bring together national experts to discuss

________________

1Hunter Hustus, Technical Advisor, Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Air Force for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, “USAF A10 Perspective.” White paper dated September 21, 2012.

2 Ibid.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×

current challenges relating strategic deterrence and potential new tools and methods that the Air Force might leverage in its strategic deterrence mission. Titled “U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment,” the workshop consisted of two 3-day sessions held in Washington, D.C., on September 26-28, 2012, and January 29-31, 2013.

The workshop committee was very pleased that the leaders of both Air Force organizations that championed this independent workshop, Lt Gen James Kowalski, Commander, Air Force Global Strike Command, and Maj Gen William Chambers, Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, were available to discuss in detail their needs related to this important workshop. In addition, the committee was honored that Dr. C. Paul Robinson, president emeritus of Sandia National Laboratories, former ambassador, chief U.S. negotiator, and head of the U.S. delegation to nuclear testing talks with the Soviet Union, as well as Gen Larry Welch (USAF, Ret.), trustee emeritus and former president, Institute for Defense Analyses, and former Air Force chief of staff, were able to share their perspectives in two capstone talks. Also, the committee thanks the many expert speakers and guests who contributed immensely to both sessions of this workshop.

The workshop committee’s role was limited primarily to planning and organizing the workshop sessions. The workshop committee was also provided opportunities to review drafts of the workshop summary for accuracy. As a function of planning for the workshop sessions, workshop committee members exchanged e-mails and read outside materials. Some workshop committee members were asked by National Research Council staff to give presentations and moderate workshop panels as individual workshop participants.

Gerald F. Perryman, Jr., Chair                                 
Committee on U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence
Capabilities in the 21st Century Security           
Environment: A Workshop                                

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×

Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

John F. Ahearne, Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society,

Allison Astorino-Courtois, National Security Innovations, Inc.,

Arden L. Bement, Jr., Purdue University, and

Michael O. Wheeler, Institute for Defense Analyses.

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the views presented at the workshop, nor did they see the final draft of the workshop summary before its release. The review of this workshop summary was overseen by Robert J. Elder, Jr., George Mason University. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this workshop summary was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this summary rests entirely with the author and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×

This page is blank

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×

Acronyms

AFGSC Air Force Global Strike Command
AFGSC/CC Commander, Air Force Global Strike Command

DoD

Department of Defense

NATO

North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NRC National Research Council
NSC National Security Council

SAIC

Science Applications International Corporation

TIN

timed influence net

TOR terms of reference

USAF

U.S. Air Force

USCG U.S. Coast Guard
USSTRATCOM U.S. Strategic Command
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×

This page is blank

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page R1
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page R2
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page R3
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page R4
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page R5
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page R6
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page R7
Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page R8
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page R9
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page R10
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page R11
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page R12
Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page R13
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
×
Page R14
Next: 1 Introduction »
U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary Get This Book
×
Buy Paperback | $35.00 Buy Ebook | $27.99
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

Changes in the 21st century security environment require new analytic approaches to support strategic deterrence. Because current adversaries may be deterred from the use of nuclear weapons differently than were Cold War adversaries, the Air Force needs an analytic process and tools that can help determine those Air Force capabilities that will successfully deter or defeat these new nuclear-armed adversaries and assure U.S. allies. While some analytic tools are available, a coherent approach for their use in developing strategy and policy appears to be lacking. Without a coherent analytic approach that addresses the nuances of today's security environment, Air Force views of its strategic deterrence needs may not be understood or accepted by the appropriate decision makers.

A coherent approach will support Air Force decisions about its strategic force priorities and needs, deter actual or potential adversaries, and assure U.S. allies. In this context, the Air Force in 2012 requested that the Air Force Studies Board of the National Research Council undertake a workshop to bring together national experts to discuss current challenges relating strategic deterrence and potential new tools and methods that the Air Force might leverage in its strategic deterrence mission.

The workshop consisted of two 3-day sessions held in Washington, DC on September 26-28, 2012 and January 29-31, 2013 and was attended by a very diverse set of participants with expertise in strategic deterrence and a range of analytic tools of potential interest to the Air Force. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment summarizes this workshop.

  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    Switch between the Original Pages, where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  9. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!