BOX 1-1
Terms of Reference

An ad hoc committee will plan and convene one workshop consisting of two 3-day meetings (separated for logistical reasons) to (1) examine integrated toolsets and methods, such as social network analysis and crowd sourcing, that provide insight into adversary decision calculi and insights into which Air Force capabilities are likely to be effective at influencing those decision calculi; and (2) develop terms of reference for an ad hoc study that would: (a) evaluate these integrated toolsets and insights on relevant Air Force capabilities and (b) analyze gaps.

The committee will develop the agenda for the workshop, select and invite speakers and discussants, and moderate the discussions.

In organizing the workshop, the committee might also consider additional topics close to and in line with those mentioned above. The meetings will use a mix of individual presentations, panels, breakout discussions, and question-and-answer sessions to develop an understanding of the relevant issues. Key stakeholders will be identified and invited to participate. One individually authored workshop summary document will be prepared by a designated rapporteur.1, 2


1 This workshop summary has been prepared by the workshop rapporteur as a factual summary of what occurred at the workshop. It is important to note that this rapporteur-authored workshop summary does not contain consensus findings and recommendations, which are only produced by National Research Council study committees.

2 The terms of reference (TOR) for the workshop does not call for formal analysis and/or recommendations of how these analytic-based approaches might be used by the Air Force as part of its strategic deterrence mission; however, the notional TOR for a formal follow-on study, found in Chapter 5, does explicitly call for such analysis.

The first two questions align well with the panels and related discussions during the workshop, and the third question was explored as part of the dialog among the workshop participants at both sessions. Additionally, some speakers with a great deal of experience offered a variety of perspectives that helped establish a comprehensive backdrop for the workshop. Accordingly, the remainder of this report is organized as follows: Chapter 2, Various Perspectives; Chapter 3, Strategic Deterrence: Past, Current, and Future; Chapter 4, Analytic-Based and Non-Traditional Approaches; and Chapter 5, Insights for the Future. Finally, as a result of this workshop, the Air Force possesses a rich variety of independent thoughts regarding potential analytic approaches to substantiate Air Force concepts and articulate Air Force capabilities as deterrence strategy is developed in the 21st century security environment. The Air Force will also have illustrative elements of a TOR for a future longer-term study to evaluate potential toolsets and analyze gaps (see Chapter 5).

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