Appendix B

Workshop Session Agendas

SESSION 1
SEPTEMBER 26-28, 2012
WASHINGTON, D.C.

September 26, 2012

0900 Vision for the Workshop

Maj Gen William Chambers, Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, Headquarters U. S. Air Force, Workshop Co-Champion

0930 Welcome and Introductions

Maj Gen (Ret.) Gerald Perryman, Jr., Independent Consultant

1015 Incentives for Nuclear Non-peer to Consider “First Use” of Nuclear Weapons During a Conventional Conflict with the United States or its Allies

Dr. Daryl Press, Associate Professor, Department of Government, Dartmouth College

1115 Tailored Deterrence

Dr. Barry Schneider, Retired Director, U.S. Air Force Counterproliferation Center

1215 Continue Discussions with lunch available
1300 AFGSC/CC Vision of 21st Century Deterrence

Lt Gen James Kowalski, Commander, Air Force Global Strike Command, Workshop Co-Champion

1400 Saddam Hussein’s Views on the Role/Utility of Nuclear Weapons and Perceptions Influencing His Decision Making

Mr. David Palkki, Deputy Director, Conflict Records Research Center, National Defense University



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Appendix B Workshop Session Agendas SESSION 1 SEPTEMBER 26-28, 2012 WASHINGTON, D.C. September 26, 2012 0900 Vision for the Workshop  Maj Gen William Chambers, Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, Headquarters U. S. Air Force, Workshop Co-Champion 0930 Welcome and Introductions  Maj Gen (Ret.) Gerald Perryman, Jr., Independent Consultant 1015 Incentives for Nuclear Non-peer to Consider “First Use” of Nuclear Weapons During a Conventional Conflict with the United States or its Allies  Dr. Daryl Press, Associate Professor, Department of Government, Dartmouth College 1115 Tailored Deterrence  Dr. Barry Schneider, Retired Director, U.S. Air Force Counterproliferation Center 1215 Continue Discussions with lunch available 1300 AFGSC/CC Vision of 21st Century Deterrence  Lt Gen James Kowalski, Commander, Air Force Global Strike Command, Workshop Co- Champion 1400 Saddam Hussein’s Views on the Role/Utility of Nuclear Weapons and Perceptions Influencing His Decision Making  Mr. David Palkki, Deputy Director, Conflict Records Research Center, National Defense University 40

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1515 Where Are We Now? What Is Useful?  Mr. Hunter Hustus, Technical Advisor, HQ USAF/A10—Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration 1615 Workshop Committee Feedback to Day 1 Presentations  All 1700 Adjourn September 27, 2012 0900 Actor-Specific Behavioral Models of Adversaries: A Key Requirement for Tailored Deterrence  Dr. Jerrold Post, Professor of Psychiatry, Political Psychology, and International Affairs and Director of Political Psychology Program, George Washington University 1015 Panel 1—Analytic-based Approaches for Deterrence Analysis  Dr. Rob Axtell, Chair, Computational Social Science Department, George Mason University  Dr. Rita Parhad, Associate Partner, Monitor360  Dr. Rafael Alonso, Vice President and Division Manager, Autonomy and Analytics Division, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) Moderator: Dr. Paul Davis, The RAND Corporation 1215 Continue Discussions with lunch available 1315 Panel 2—Deterrence Concept Updates and Approaches  Dr. Elbridge Colby, Research Analyst  Mr. Patrick McKenna, Chief, Plans Evaluation and Research Division, U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM)  Mr. Orde Kittrie, Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Professor of Law, Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law, Arizona State University Moderator: Dr. Michael Wheeler, Institute for Defense Analyses 1530 Workshop Committee Feedback to Day 2 Presentations  All 1700 Adjourn 41

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September 28, 2012 0900 Panel 3—Non-Traditional Approaches to Deterrence  Dr. Diane DiEuliis, Deputy Director, Office of Policy and Planning, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services  CAPT (Ret.) Gail Kulisch, Owner and Managing Principal of BTG Ventures, LLC  Dr. John Sawyer, Program Manager/Senior Researcher, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, University of Maryland Moderator: Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois, National Security Innovations, Inc. 1100 Workshop Committee Feedback to Day 3 Presentations  All 1200 Continue Discussions with lunch available 1230 Capstone: Future Strategic Nuclear Deterrence and National Security Challenges for the United States  Dr. C. Paul Robinson, President Emeritus, Sandia National Laboratories 1300 Planning for Session 2 1400 Adjourn SESSION 2 JANUARY 29-31, 2013 WASHINGTON, D.C. Objectives 1. Receive briefings on topics related to the workshop terms of reference (TOR) 2. Participate in interactive panel discussions 3. Discuss potential terms of reference for follow-on National Academies’ study January 29, 2013 0900 Welcome and Introductions  Maj Gen (Ret.) Gerald Perryman, Jr., Independent Consultant 0905 Workshop Co-Champion Opening Remarks  Maj Gen William Chambers, Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, Headquarters U.S. Air Force 42

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0935 An Overview of Simple Decision Heuristics in Uncertain Environments  Dr. Peter Todd, Professor, Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University 1050 Panel 1—Scenario-based Analytic Tools  Lt Gen Robert Elder (USAF, Ret.), Research Professor, George Mason University  Ms. Anne Russell, Director of Social Systems Analysis, SAIC Moderator: Dr. Tony Cox, Cox Associates, LLC 1200 Continue Discussions with lunch available 1300 Panel 2—Leadership Profiling Approaches  Dr. David Winter, Personality and Social Contexts Chair and Professor of Psychology, University of Michigan  Dr. Stephen Walker, Professor Emeritus of Political Sciences, Arizona State University  Dr. Margaret Hermann, Director, Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs, Syracuse University Moderator: Dr. Jerrold Post, George Washington University 1515 Reaction to Day 1 Presentations  All 1700 Adjourn January 30, 2013 0900 Achieving a Politically and Technically Sustainable Nuclear Posture for the 21st Century  Lt Gen (Ret.) Frank Klotz, Senior Fellow for Strategic Studies and Arms Control, Council on Foreign Relations 1015 Underlying Analyses for USSTRATCOM Force Structure  Mr. Patrick McKenna, Chief, Plans Evaluation and Research Division, USSTRATCOM 1115 Congressional Perspectives on U.S. Strategic Deterrence  Ms. Amy Woolf, Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy, Congressional Research Service 1215 Recent Studies and Analyses with lunch available  Maj Justin Sorice, Air Force Office of Studies and Analyses, Assessments and Lessons Learned 43

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1315 Panel 3—Threat Anticipation and Intelligence Analysis  Dr. David Hamon, Principal, National and International Security Strategies, Analytic Services, Inc.  Dr. Rich Wagner, Jr., Emeritus Technical Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratory Moderator: Dr. Mike Wheeler, Institute for Defense Analyses 1530 Reaction to Day 2 Presentations  All 1700 Adjourn January 31, 2013 0900 General Discussion of Potential TOR for Follow-on Consensus Study  All 1015 Snapshot of Workshop Committee Feedback from Day 1 and Day 2  Mr. Norm Haller, Rapporteur 1115 Capstone Remarks: Strategic Deterrence Capabilities for the 21st Century Security Environment  Gen Larry Welch (USAF, Ret.), Trustee Emeritus and former President, Institute for Defense Analyses 1215 Continue Discussions with lunch available 1300 Adjourn 44