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U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary (2013)

Chapter: Appendix B--Workshop Session Agendas

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B--Workshop Session Agendas." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
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Appendix B

Workshop Session Agendas

SESSION 1
SEPTEMBER 26-28, 2012
WASHINGTON, D.C.

September 26, 2012

0900 Vision for the Workshop

Maj Gen William Chambers, Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, Headquarters U. S. Air Force, Workshop Co-Champion
0930 Welcome and Introductions

Maj Gen (Ret.) Gerald Perryman, Jr., Independent Consultant
1015 Incentives for Nuclear Non-peer to Consider “First Use” of Nuclear Weapons During a Conventional Conflict with the United States or its Allies

Dr. Daryl Press, Associate Professor, Department of Government, Dartmouth College
1115 Tailored Deterrence

Dr. Barry Schneider, Retired Director, U.S. Air Force Counterproliferation Center
1215 Continue Discussions with lunch available
1300 AFGSC/CC Vision of 21st Century Deterrence

Lt Gen James Kowalski, Commander, Air Force Global Strike Command, Workshop Co-Champion
1400 Saddam Hussein’s Views on the Role/Utility of Nuclear Weapons and Perceptions Influencing His Decision Making

Mr. David Palkki, Deputy Director, Conflict Records Research Center, National Defense University
Page 41 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B--Workshop Session Agendas." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
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1515 Where Are We Now? What Is Useful?

image Mr. Hunter Hustus, Technical Advisor, HQ USAF/A10—Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration
1615 Workshop Committee Feedback to Day 1 Presentations

All
1700 Adjourn

September 27, 2012

0900 Actor-Specific Behavioral Models of Adversaries: A Key Requirement for Tailored Deterrence

Dr. Jerrold Post, Professor of Psychiatry, Political Psychology, and International Affairs and Director of Political Psychology Program, George Washington University
1015 Panel 1—Analytic-based Approaches for Deterrence Analysis

Dr. Rob Axtell, Chair, Computational Social Science Department, George Mason University


Dr. Rita Parhad, Associate Partner, Monitor360


Dr. Rafael Alonso, Vice President and Division Manager, Autonomy and Analytics Division, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)
  Moderator: Dr. Paul Davis, The RAND Corporation

1215

Continue Discussions with lunch available

1315

Panel 2—Deterrence Concept Updates and Approaches


Dr. Elbridge Colby, Research Analyst


Mr. Patrick McKenna, Chief, Plans Evaluation and Research Division, U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM)


Mr. Orde Kittrie, Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Professor of Law, Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law, Arizona State University
  Moderator: Dr. Michael Wheeler, Institute for Defense Analyses
1530 Workshop Committee Feedback to Day 2 Presentations

All
1700 Adjourn
Page 42 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B--Workshop Session Agendas." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
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September 28, 2012

0900 Panel 3—Non-Traditional Approaches to Deterrence

Dr. Diane DiEuliis, Deputy Director, Office of Policy and Planning, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services


CAPT (Ret.) Gail Kulisch, Owner and Managing Principal of BTG Ventures, LLC


Dr. John Sawyer, Program Manager/Senior Researcher, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, University of Maryland

 

Moderator: Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois, National Security Innovations, Inc.

1100

Workshop Committee Feedback to Day 3 Presentations


All
1200 Continue Discussions with lunch available

1230

Capstone: Future Strategic Nuclear Deterrence and National


Security Challenges for the United States

Dr. C. Paul Robinson, President Emeritus, Sandia National Laboratories
1300 Planning for Session 2

1400

Adjourn

SESSION 2
JANUARY 29-31, 2013
WASHINGTON, D.C.

Objectives

1. Receive briefings on topics related to the workshop terms of reference (TOR)

2. Participate in interactive panel discussions

3. Discuss potential terms of reference for follow-on National Academies’ study

January 29, 2013

0900 Welcome and Introductions

Maj Gen (Ret.) Gerald Perryman, Jr., Independent Consultant
0905 Workshop Co-Champion Opening Remarks

Maj Gen William Chambers, Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, Headquarters U.S. Air Force
Page 43 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B--Workshop Session Agendas." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
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0935 An Overview of Simple Decision Heuristics in Uncertain Environments

Dr. Peter Todd, Professor, Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University
1050 Panel 1—Scenario-based Analytic Tools

Lt Gen Robert Elder (USAF, Ret.), Research Professor, George Mason University


Ms. Anne Russell, Director of Social Systems Analysis, SAIC

 

Moderator: Dr. Tony Cox, Cox Associates, LLC

1200

Continue Discussions with lunch available

1300

Panel 2—Leadership Profiling Approaches


Dr. David Winter, Personality and Social Contexts Chair and Professor of Psychology, University of Michigan


Dr. Stephen Walker, Professor Emeritus of Political Sciences, Arizona State University


Dr. Margaret Hermann, Director, Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs, Syracuse University

 

Moderator: Dr. Jerrold Post, George Washington University

1515

Reaction to Day 1 Presentations


All

1700

Adjourn

January 30, 2013

0900 Achieving a Politically and Technically Sustainable Nuclear Posture for the 21st Century

Lt Gen (Ret.) Frank Klotz, Senior Fellow for Strategic Studies and Arms Control, Council on Foreign Relations
1015 Underlying Analyses for USSTRATCOM Force Structure

Mr. Patrick McKenna, Chief, Plans Evaluation and Research Division, USSTRATCOM
1115 Congressional Perspectives on U.S. Strategic Deterrence

Ms. Amy Woolf, Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy, Congressional Research Service
1215 Recent Studies and Analyses with lunch available

Maj Justin Sorice, Air Force Office of Studies and Analyses, Assessments and Lessons Learned
Page 44 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B--Workshop Session Agendas." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
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1315 Panel 3—Threat Anticipation and Intelligence Analysis

Dr. David Hamon, Principal, National and International Security Strategies, Analytic Services, Inc.


Dr. Rich Wagner, Jr., Emeritus Technical Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratory

 

Moderator: Dr. Mike Wheeler, Institute for Defense Analyses

1530

Reaction to Day 2 Presentations


All

1700

Adjourn

January 31, 2013

0900 General Discussion of Potential TOR for Follow-on Consensus Study

All
1015 Snapshot of Workshop Committee Feedback from Day 1 and Day 2

Mr. Norm Haller, Rapporteur
1115 Capstone Remarks: Strategic Deterrence Capabilities for the 21st Century Security Environment

Gen Larry Welch (USAF, Ret.), Trustee Emeritus and former President, Institute for Defense Analyses

1215

Continue Discussions with lunch available

1300

Adjourn
Page 40 Cite
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B--Workshop Session Agendas." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B--Workshop Session Agendas." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B--Workshop Session Agendas." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B--Workshop Session Agendas." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B--Workshop Session Agendas." National Research Council. 2013. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18337.
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Changes in the 21st century security environment require new analytic approaches to support strategic deterrence. Because current adversaries may be deterred from the use of nuclear weapons differently than were Cold War adversaries, the Air Force needs an analytic process and tools that can help determine those Air Force capabilities that will successfully deter or defeat these new nuclear-armed adversaries and assure U.S. allies. While some analytic tools are available, a coherent approach for their use in developing strategy and policy appears to be lacking. Without a coherent analytic approach that addresses the nuances of today's security environment, Air Force views of its strategic deterrence needs may not be understood or accepted by the appropriate decision makers.

A coherent approach will support Air Force decisions about its strategic force priorities and needs, deter actual or potential adversaries, and assure U.S. allies. In this context, the Air Force in 2012 requested that the Air Force Studies Board of the National Research Council undertake a workshop to bring together national experts to discuss current challenges relating strategic deterrence and potential new tools and methods that the Air Force might leverage in its strategic deterrence mission.

The workshop consisted of two 3-day sessions held in Washington, DC on September 26-28, 2012 and January 29-31, 2013 and was attended by a very diverse set of participants with expertise in strategic deterrence and a range of analytic tools of potential interest to the Air Force. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment summarizes this workshop.

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