is a tradeoff between relatively short time horizons, which allow more reliable projections but might not be relevant for the conservation of the species (because the goal is long-term existence of the species), and relatively long time horizons, which are more relevant but result in more uncertain projections of population viability. Even if the effect at the individual level occurs for only a few years, population-level effects might be observed longer because of changes in the age structure of the population. To account for such transitory effects, an assessment can use a time horizon of several generations of the species or the period during which a pesticide is expected to affect the population, whichever is longer.

Spatial Scale

The spatial scale of an assessment has two components: resolution and extent. For most population models, the spatial resolution should coincide with the typical sizes of the areas (or ranges of sizes) occupied by populations or subpopulations of the species. That might require a translation of the results of the exposure model to reduce the spatial resolution to a level that is appropriate for the species. In other words, the results of exposure modeling at very fine resolution (for example, 30-m grid cells for a species with a 1-ha home range and populations occupying areas of several square kilometers) can be translated into effects at the population level by calculating an overall reduction in survival and reproduction in each population on the basis of the average EEC to which the population will be exposed. The average EEC would be estimated with errors by the exposure model, and the errors would be incorporated by using joint probability distributions (see Chapter 5).

Ideally, the spatial extent of the models would include all areas in which a modeled species is exposed to the pesticide being evaluated. Both the spatial distribution of the species and the distribution of pesticide in the landscape might be heterogeneous. As a result, different populations of the species might be exposed to different concentrations of the pesticide, and even individual organisms in a population might have different exposures. In some cases, spatial variability of exposure can lead to source-sink dynamics in a metapopulation (Palmqvist and Forbes 2008).1 That is, populations that are exposed to the pesticide might become sink populations2 and thus deplete the populations that are not exposed; conversely, exposed populations might remain extant despite exposure because of dispersal from the unexposed populations in the same metapopulation (Spromberg and Johnson 2008). Accordingly, if there is dispersal between populations, exposure of one population can cause a reduction in an-


1A metapopulation is a set of populations of the same species in the same general geographic area that might exchange individual organisms through dispersal.

2A sink population has more deaths than births and remains extant only because there are more immigrants than emigrants.

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