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Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions: The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling, Volume I - Review and Recommendations References Allin, Susan, and Doyle, Pat 1990 Analysis of the Quality of SIPP as It Pertains to the Food Stamp Program. Final report to the Food and Nutrition Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Washington, D.C.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. Anderson, Gordon 1989 Capital Stock Levels, Tax Capacity Exhaustion and Cost of Capital Endogeneity. University of Toronto, Canada. Anderson, Joseph M. 1990 Micro-macro linkages in economic models. Pp. 187-220 in Gordon H. Lewis and Richard C. Michel, eds., Microsimulation Techniques for Tax and Transfer Analysis. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press. Andrews, Richard W., Birdsal L., William C., Gentner, Frederick J., and Spivey, W. Allen 1987 Validation Methods for Microeconomic Simulation. Report prepared for the Social Security Administration, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, D.C. Arrow, Kenneth J. 1980 Microdata simulation: Current status, problems, prospects. Pp. 253-265 in Robert H. Haveman and Kevin Hollenbeck, eds., Microeconomic Simulation Models for Public Policy Analysis. Vol. II, Sectoral, Regional, and General Equilibrium Models. New York: Academic Press. Arthur, W. Brian 1990 Positive feedbacks in the economy. Scientific American 262(2):92-99. Atrostic, B. K., and Nunns, James R. 1988 Measuring Tax Burden: A Historical Perspective. Paper presented to the 50th Anniversary Conference of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, Washington, D.C.

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Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions: The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling, Volume I - Review and Recommendations Bailar, Barbara 1983 Error profiles: Uses and abuses. Pp. 117-130 in Tommy Wright, ed., Statistical Methods and the Improvement of Data Quality. New York: Academic Press. Baseline Data Corporation 1984 The Federal Statistical System, 1980 to 1985. Report prepared for the Congressional Research Service in response to the Committee on Government Operations, U.S. House of Representatives. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Beebout, Harold 1980 Food stamp policy modeling: An application of MATH. Pp. 45-72 in Robert H. Haveman and Kevin Hollenbeck, eds., Microeconomic Simulation Models for Public Policy Analysis. Vol. 1, Distributional Impacts. New York: Academic Press. 1986 Evaluating Reagan Administration social program changes: Two applications of MATH. Pp. 83-97 in G. H. Orcutt, J. Merz, and H. Quinke, eds., Microanalytic Simulation Models to Support Social and Financial Policy. Amsterdam:Elsevier Science Publishers. Beebout, Harold, and Grossman, Jean Baldwin 1985 A Forecasting System for AFDC Caseloads and Costs: Executive Summary. Prepared by Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. AFDC and Related Income Maintenance Studies, Office of Family Assistance, Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Beebout, Harold, and Haworth, Lauren 1989 Microsimulation Estimates Versus Reality: A Case Study. Unpublished memorandum. Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C. Bergmann, Barbara R. 1990 Micro-to-macro simulation: A primer with a labor market example. The Journal of Economic Perspectives 4(1):99-116. Berkovec, James, and Fullerton, Don 1989 The general equilibrium effects of inflation on housing consumption and investment. The American Economic Review 79(2):277-282. Betson, David M. 1988 How Reliable Are Conclusions Derived from Microsimulation Models? Paper prepared for the Workshop on Prospects and Limits of Simulation Models in Tax and Transfer Policy, Giessen, Federal Republic of Germany. Betson, David, Greenberg, David, and Kasten, Richard 1980 A microsimulation model for analyzing alternative welfare reform proposals: An application to the Program for Better Jobs and Income. Pp. 153-188 in Robert H. Haveman and Kevin Hollenbeck, eds., Microeconomic Simulation Models for Public Policy Analysis. Vol. I, Distributional Impacts. New York: Academic Press. Birnbaum, Jeffrey H., and Murray, Alan S. 1987 Showdown at Gucci Gulch-Lawmakers, Lobbyists, and the Unlikely Triumph of Tax Reform. New York: Vintage Books. Boskin, Michael J. 1990 Improving the Quality of Economic Statistics. Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee Hearing on the Quality of Federal Statistical Programs, March 1, 1990, Washington, D.C.

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Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions: The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling, Volume I - Review and Recommendations Butz, William P., and Plewes, Thomas J. 1990 Moving the Current Population Survey into the 21st century. In Proceedings of the Section on Survey Research Methods. Alexandria, Va.: American Statistical Association. Caldwell, Steven B. 1989 Strategies for Aging a Population. Paper prepared for the Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs. Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y. Caplan, N., Morrison, A., and Stambaugh, R.J. 1976 The Use of Social Science Knowledge in Policy Decisions at the National Level. Institute for Social Research. Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan. Carlson, Steven 1989 FNS Microsimulation Case Study. Paper prepared for the Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs. Food and Nutrition Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. Cartwright, William S. 1989 Projections of Future Health Care Expenditures. Paper prepared for a policy forum sponsored by the Employee Benefit Research Institute-Education and Research Fund, Washington, D.C. Chollet, Deborah J. 1990 Microsimulation Models in Health Services Research. Paper prepared for the Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs. Georgia State University, Atlanta, Ga. Cilke, James, and Wyscarver, Roy A. 1990 The Treasury Individual Income Tax Simulation Model. Office of Tax Analysis. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of the Treasury. Citro, Constance F. 1989 The Role of Static Microsimulation in Policy Analysis: The Case of DHHS/ASPE in the 1980s; the Case of USDA/FNS in the Late 1980s. Paper prepared for the Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs, Committee on National Statistics, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council, Washington, D.C. Citro, Constance F., and Beebout, Harold 1984 Effects of the 1981 OBRA Welfare Changes and the Recession on Poverty. Paper prepared for the Congressional Research Service. Washington, D.C.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. Citro, Constance F., and Cohen, Michael L., eds. 1985 The Bicentennial Census: New Directions for Methodology in 1990. Panel on Decennial Census Methodology, Committee on National Statistics, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Clogg, Clifford, Massagli, Michael, and Eliason, Scott 1986 Population undercount as an issue in social research. Pp. 335-343 in Proceedings of the Bureau of the Census Second Annual Research Conference. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Coder, John F. No date The March Current Population Survey Earnings Imputation System: An Explanation and Evaluation. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C.

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Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions: The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling, Volume I - Review and Recommendations McNees, Stephen K. 1989 Why do forecasts differ? New England Economic Review January/February: 42-54. 1990 Man vs. model? The role of judgment in forecasting. New England Economic Review July/August:41-52. Madow, William G., Olkin, Ingram, and Rubin, Donald B., eds. 1983 Incomplete Data in Sample Surveys. 3 vols. Panel on Incomplete Data, Committee on National Statistics, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council. New York: Academic Press. Magnuson, Ed 1990 Back to the other war. TIME September 10:42. Manton, Kenneth G., and Stallard, Eric 1990 Incorporating risk factors into projections of the size and health status of the U.S. elderly population. In K. G. Manton, B. Singer, and R. Suzman, eds., Forecasting the Health of the Old. New York: Oxford University Press. Manton, Kenneth G., Woodbury, Max A., and Stallard, Eric 1990 Longitudinal Models of Disability Changes and Active Life Expectancy in Elderly Populations: The Interaction of Sex, Age and Marital Status. Paper presented at the Consultation on Modeling of Noncommunicable Disease Prevention Programs, World Health Organization, Heidelburg, Germany. 1991 Statistical and Measurement Issues in Assessing the Welfare Status of Aged Individuals and Populations. Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, N.C. Maxfield, Myles, Jr., and Rucci, Mark 1985 A Simulation Model of Targeted Employment and Training Programs for Long Term Welfare Recipients: Technical Documentation. Prepared for the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Washington, D.C.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. Minarik, Joseph J. 1980 The MERGE 1973 data file. Pp. 3-28 in Robert H. Haveman and Kevin Hollenbeck, eds., Microeconomic Simulation Models for Public Policy Analysis. Vol. 1, Distributional Impacts. New York: Academic Press. Moffitt, Robert, and Wolfe, Barbara 1990 The Effect of the Medicaid Program on Welfare Participation and Labor Supply. Discussion paper no. 909-90. Institute for Research on Poverty. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press. Morris, Richard B. 1953 Encyclopedia of American History. New York: Harper & Brothers. Nelson, Charles, and Short, Kathleen 1990 Health Insurance Coverage: 1986-88. Current Population Reports, Household Economic Studies, Series P-70, No. 17. Bureau of the Census. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Nelson, Richard R., and Winter, Sidney G. 1982 An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. Norwood, Janet L. 1990 ASA sesquicentennial. The American Statistician 44(2):67. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation 1981 A Description of the Health Financing Model: A Tool for Estimation. Cost

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Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions: The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling, Volume I - Review and Recommendations Primus, Wendell E. 1989 Children in poverty: A committee prepares for an informed debate. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 8(1):23-34. Rao, A. V., Lindsey, Q. W., Bhavsar, R. C., Shah, B. V., Horvitz, D. G., and Batts, J. R. 1973 The evaluation of four alternative family planning programs for POPLAND, a less developed country. Pp. 261-304 in Bennett Dyke and Jean Walters MacCluer, eds., Computer Simulation in Human Population Studies. New York:Academic Press. Redfern, P. 1987 A Study of the Future of the Census of Population: Alternative Approaches. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. Reeves, Jaxk H. 1987 Projection of number of kin. Pp. 228-248 in John Bongaarts, Thomas K. Burch, and Kenneth W. Wachter, eds., Family Demography: Methods and Their Application. Oxford: Clarendon Press. Rivlin, Alice M., and Wiener, Joshua M., with Hanley, Raymond J., and Spence, Denise A. 1988 Caring for the Disabled Elderly: Who Will Pay?. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution. Robinson, Gregory 1990 Preliminary Estimates of the United States Resident Population on April 1, 1990 Based on Demographic Analysis. Paper presented to the Census Advisory Committee of the American Statistical Association and the Census Advisory Committee on Population Statistics. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. Robinson, William H. 1989 Policy analysis for Congress: Lengthening the time horizon. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 8(1):1-9. Rovner, Julie 1988 Human services: Congress clears overhaul of welfare system. Congressional Quarterly October:2699-2701. Rowe, G. 1990 Event history analysis of marriage and divorce in Canada. In Proceedings of Statistics Canada Symposium on Analysis of Data in Time. Ottawa: Statistics Canada. Ruggles, Patricia, and Michel, Richard C. 1987 Participation Rates in the Aid to Families with Dependent Children Program: Trends for 1967 Through 1984. Washington, D.C.:The Urban Institute Press. Russakoff, Dale 1990 Numbers people, in the crunch. The Washington Post October 4: A25. Samuelson, Robert J. 1990 We just lost $200 billion. The Washington Post July 26: A27. Shipp, P. Royal 1980 Discussion. Pp. 75-80 in Robert H. Haveman and Kevin Hollenbeck, eds., Microeconomic Simulation Models for Public Policy Analysis. Vol. 1, Distributional Impacts. New York: Academic Press. 1989 Anticipating future congressional action: Designing a new retirement income system. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 8(1):10-22. Shoven, John B., and Whalley, John 1984 Applied general-equilibrium models of taxation and international trade: An

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