Review of NOAA Working Group Report on
Maintaining the Continuation of
Long-term Satellite Total Solar Irradiance
Observation

Committee on Evaluating NOAA’s Plan to Mitigate the
Loss of Total Solar Irradiance Measurements from Space

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

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Review of NO Wo R w OAA orking Group Repo on p ort Maintain th Con M ning he ntinuat of tion Long-te Sa L erm atellite Total Solar Irradi e r iance Obse ervatio on Commmittee on Evaluatin NOAA’s Plan to M n ng s Mitigate the e Loss of Total Solar Irradi iance Meas surements from Spacce Board on Atmosph n heric Scienc and Climate ces Div vision on Earth and L Studies E Life s TH NATIONA ACADEM HE AL MIES PRESS Wash hington, D.C C. ww ww.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under award number EE-133E-12-SE-2422. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agency or any of its sub agencies. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-28763-0 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-28763-4 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu/. Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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The National Ac cademy of Sciences is a private, n nonprofit, se elf-perpetuating society o of distin nguished scholars engage in scient ed tific and enngineering reesearch, deddicated to thhe furtheerance of sciience and tecchnology and to their us for the ge d se eneral welfar re. Upon th he authoority of the ch harter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Ac d e cademy has a mandate that requir it to advi the federa governmen on scientif and techn res ise al nt fic nical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicero is preside of the Nat one ent tional Academ of Science s. my The National Acad N demy of Engi ineering was established in 1964, under the charter o the National n r of Acade emy of Scienc as a paral organizati of outstan ces, llel ion nding engineers. It is auto onomous in iits admin nistration and in the sele ection of its members, s sharing with the Nationa Academy o al of Scienc the respo ces onsibility for advising th federal gov r he vernment. T Nationa Academy o The al of Engin neering also sponsors engineering prog s grams aimed at meeting national need encourage d ds, es educa ation and reseearch, and reccognizes the superior achi s ievements of engineers. D C. D. Mot Dr. te, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. t A E The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Aca M n ademy of Scie ences to securre ervices of emi the se inent members of approprriate professio in the exa ons amination of policy matters pertaiining to the health of the public. The Institute ac under the responsibilit given to th h e cts ty he Natioonal Academy of Sciences by its con y ngressional ch harter to be an adviser to the feder ral goverrnment and, upon its ow initiative, to identify issues of m wn medical care, research, an nd educaation. Dr. Harvey V. Fineb is preside of the Inst berg ent titute of Medicine. The National Rese N earch Counc was organi cil ized by the N National Acad demy of Scien nces in 1916 t to associiate the broa communit of science and techno ad ty e ology with th Academy’ purposes o he ’s of furtheering knowleedge and adv vising the fed deral governmment. Funct tioning in accordance witth gener policies de ral etermined by the Academ the Coun has becom the princ y my, ncil me cipal operatin ng agenc of both the National Ac cy e cademy of Sc ciences and th National A he Academy of E Engineering i in providding services to the govern nment, the puublic, and the scientific and engineering communitie d g es. The Council is adm C ministered joiintly by both Academies a the Institu of Medici and ute ine. Dr. Ralp ph J. Cice erone and Dr C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice cha respectively, of the Nat r. , r air, tional Researc ch Coun ncil. w www.national- -academies.or rg .

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COMMITTEE ON EVALUATING NOAA’S PLAN TO MITIGATE THE LOSS OF TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE MEASUREMENTS FROM SPACE GRAEME L. STEPHENS (Chair), Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California JOANNA D. HAIGH, Imperial College of London, United Kingdom JOHN W. HARVEY, National Solar Observatory, Tucson, Arizona CHARLES ICHOKU, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland KUO-NAN LIOU (NAE), University of California, Los Angeles JOSEPH RICE, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, Maryland WILLIAM SMITH, Hampton University, Virginia BRUCE WIELICKI, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia NRC Staff: MAGGIE WALSER, Study Director ART CHARO, Senior Program Officer ELIZABETH FINKELMAN, Senior Program Assistant v

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Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form Jeffrey Hall, Lowell Observatory by individuals chosen for their diverse Jeff Knight, UK Met Office perspectives and technical expertise, in Kevin Maschhoff, BAE Systems accordance with procedures approved by the Richard Willson, ACRIM Consulting NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid Although the reviewers listed above have and critical comments that will assist the provided many constructive comments and institution in making its published report as suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the sound as possible and to ensure that the report conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the meets institutional standards for objectivity, report before its release. The review of this evidence, and responsiveness to the study report was overseen by Thomas Vonder Haar, of charge. The review comments and draft Colorado State University, appointed by the manuscript remain confidential to protect the Division on Earth and Life Studies, who was integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to responsible for making certain that an thank the following individuals for their independent examination of this report was participation in their review of this report: carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were Thomas Ackerman, University of carefully considered. Responsibility for the final Washington content of this report rests entirely with the Claus Fröhlich, Physikalisch- authoring committee and the institution. Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos vii

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viii Review of NOAA WG Report on Long-term Satellite Total Solar Irradiance Observation Institutional oversight for this project was provided by: BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR. (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany RICHARD CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado SHUYI S. CHEN, University of Miami, Florida KIRSTIN DOW, University of South Carolina, Columbia PAMELA EMCH, Northrup Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, California LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, New York, New York ISAAC HELD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey ANTHONY JANETOS, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University of Maryland, College Park JOHN E. KUTZBACH, University of Wisconsin, Madison ARTHUR LEE, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California ROBERT J. LEMPERT, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California STEPHEN W. PACALA, Princeton University, New Jersey ARISTIDES A. N. PATRINOS, Synthetic Genomics, Inc. RAYMOND T. PIERREHUMBERT, University of Chicago, Illinois KIMBERLY PRATHER, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California RICH RICHELS, Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., Washington, DC DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, New Jersey JOHN T. SNOW, University of Oklahoma, Norman CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey XUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona, Tucson NRC Staff SUSAN ROBERTS, Interim Director EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer MAGGIE WALSER, Program Officer KATIE THOMAS, Associate Program Officer LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate AMANDA PURCELL, Research and Financial Associate RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate ELIZABETH FINKLEMAN, Senior Program Assistant SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 3 2 PLAN REVIEW 7 REFERENCES 19 APPENDIXES A Acronyms and Abbreviations, 25 B NOAA Working Group Report, 27 C Background Papers, 57 D Biographical Sketches of Committee Members, 103 ix

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