Summary

THE PROMISE AND PERILS OF MASSIVE DATA

Experiments, observations, and numerical simulations in many areas of science and business are currently generating terabytes of data, and in some cases are on the verge of generating petabytes and beyond. Analyses of the information contained in these data sets have already led to major breakthroughs in fields ranging from genomics to astronomy and high-energy physics and to the development of new information-based industries. Traditional methods of analysis have been based largely on the assumption that analysts can work with data within the confines of their own computing environment, but the growth of “big data” is changing that paradigm, especially in cases in which massive amounts of data are distributed across locations.

While the scientific community and the defense enterprise have long been leaders in generating and using large data sets, the emergence of e-commerce and massive search engines has led other sectors to confront the challenges of massive data. For example, Google, Yahoo!, Microsoft, and other Internet-based companies have data that is measured in exabytes (1018 bytes). Social media (e.g., Facebook, YouTube, Twitter) have exploded beyond anyone’s wildest imagination, and today some of these companies have hundreds of millions of users. Data mining of these massive data sets is transforming the way we think about crisis response, marketing, entertainment, cybersecurity, and national intelligence. It is also transforming how we think about information storage and retrieval. Collections of documents, images, videos, and networks are being thought of not merely as bit



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Summary THE PROMISE AND PERILS OF MASSIVE DATA Experiments, observations, and numerical simulations in many areas of science and business are currently generating terabytes of data, and in some cases are on the verge of generating petabytes and beyond. Analyses of the information contained in these data sets have already led to major breakthroughs in fields ranging from genomics to astronomy and high- energy physics and to the development of new information-based industries. Traditional methods of analysis have been based largely on the assumption that analysts can work with data within the confines of their own comput- ing environment, but the growth of “big data” is changing that paradigm, especially in cases in which massive amounts of data are distributed across locations. While the scientific community and the defense enterprise have long been leaders in generating and using large data sets, the emergence of e-commerce and massive search engines has led other sectors to confront the challenges of massive data. For example, Google, Yahoo!, Microsoft, and other Internet-based companies have data that is measured in exa­ ytes ­ b (1018 bytes). Social media (e.g., Facebook, YouTube, Twitter) have exploded beyond anyone’s wildest imagination, and today some of these companies have hundreds of millions of users. Data mining of these massive data sets is transforming the way we think about crisis response, marketing, enter- tainment, cybersecurity, and national intelligence. It is also transforming how we think about information storage and retrieval. Collections of docu- ments, images, videos, and networks are being thought of not merely as bit 1

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2 FRONTIERS IN MASSIVE DATA ANALYSIS strings to be stored, indexed, and retrieved, but also as potential sources of dis­ overy and knowledge, requiring sophisticated analysis techniques that c go far ­ eyond classical indexing and keyword counting, aiming to find rela- b tional and semantic interpretations of the phenomena underlying the data. A number of challenges in both data management and data analysis require new approaches to support the big data era. These challenges span generation of the data, preparation for analysis, and policy-related chal- lenges in its sharing and use, including the following: • Dealing with highly distributed data sources, • Tracking data provenance, from data generation through data preparation, • Validating data, • Coping with sampling biases and heterogeneity, • Working with different data formats and structures, • Developing algorithms that exploit parallel and distributed architectures, • Ensuring data integrity, • Ensuring data security, • Enabling data discovery and integration, • Enabling data sharing, • Developing methods for visualizing massive data, • Developing scalable and incremental algorithms, and • Coping with the need for real-time analysis and decision-making. To the extent that massive data can be exploited effectively, the hope is that science will extend its reach, and technology will become more adap- tive, personalized, and robust. It is appealing to imagine, for example, a health-care system in which increasingly detailed data are maintained for each individual—including genomic, cellular, and environmental data—and in which such data can be combined with data from other individuals and with results from fundamental biological and medical research so that opti- mized treatments can be designed for each individual. One can also envision numerous business opportunities that combine knowledge of preferences and needs at the level of single individuals with fine-grained descriptions of goods, skills, and services to create new markets. It is natural to be optimistic about the prospects. Several decades of research and development in databases and search engines have yielded a wealth of relevant experience in the design of scalable data-centric tech- nology. In particular, these fields have fueled the advent of cloud comput- ing and other parallel and distributed platforms that seem well suited to massive data analysis. Moreover, innovations in the fields of machine learning, data mining, statistics, and the theory of algorithms have yielded

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SUMMARY 3 data-analysis methods that can be applied to ever-larger data sets. How- ever, such optimism must be tempered by an understanding of the major difficulties that arise in attempting to achieve the envisioned goals. In part, these difficulties are those familiar from implementations of large-scale databases—finding and mitigating bottlenecks, achieving simplicity and generality of the programming interface, propagating metadata, designing a system that is robust to hardware failure, and exploiting parallel and distributed hardware—all at an unprecedented scale. But the challenges ­ for massive data go beyond the storage, indexing, and querying that have been the province of classical database systems (and classical search en- gines) and, instead, hinge on the ambitious goal of inference. Inference is the problem of turning data into knowledge, where knowledge often is expressed in terms of entities that are not present in the data per se but are present in models that one uses to interpret the data. Statistical rigor is necessary to justify the inferential leap from data to knowledge, and many difficulties arise in attempting to bring statistical principles to bear on massive data. Overlooking this foundation may yield results that are not useful at best, or harmful at worst. In any discussion of massive data and inference, it is essential to be aware that it is quite possible to turn data into something resembling knowledge when actually it is not. Moreover, it can be quite difficult to know that this has happened. Indeed, many issues impinge on the quality of inference. A major one is that of “sampling bias.” Data may have been collected according to a certain criterion (for example, in a way that favors “larger” items over “smaller” items), but the inferences and decisions made may refer to a dif- ferent sampling criterion. This issue seems likely to be particularly severe in many massive data sets, which often consist of many subcollections of data, each collected according to a particular choice of sampling criterion and with little control over the overall composition. Another major issue is “provenance.” Many systems involve layers of inference, where “data” are not the original observations but are the products of an inferential proce- dure of some kind. This often occurs, for example, when there are missing entries in the original data. In a large system involving interconnected infer- ences, it can be difficult to avoid circularity, which can introduce additional biases and can amplify noise. Finally, there is the major issue of controlling error rates when many hypotheses are being considered. Indeed, massive data sets generally involve growth not merely in the number of individuals represented (the “rows” of the database) but also in the number of descrip- tors of those individuals (the “columns” of the database). Moreover, we are often interested in the predictive ability associated with combinations of the descriptors; this can lead to exponential growth in the number of hypotheses considered, with severe consequences for error rates. That is, a naive appeal to a “law of large numbers” for massive data is unlikely to be

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4 FRONTIERS IN MASSIVE DATA ANALYSIS justified; if anything, the perils associated with statistical fluctuations may actually increase as data sets grow in size. While the field of statistics has developed tools that can address such issues in principle, in the context of massive data care must be taken with all such tools for two main reasons: (1) all statistical tools are based on as- sumptions about characteristics of the data set and the way it was sampled, and those assumptions may be violated in the process of assembling massive data sets; and (2) tools for assessing errors of procedures, and for diagnos- tics, are themselves computational procedures that may be computationally infeasible as data sets move into the massive scale. In spite of the cautions raised above, the Committee on the Analysis of Massive Data believes that many of the challenges involved in performing inference on massive data can be confronted usefully. These challenges must be addressed through a major, sustained research effort that is based solidly on both inferential and computational principles. This research effort must develop scalable computational infrastructures that embody inferential principles that themselves are based on considerations of scale. The research must take account of real-time decision cycles and the management of trade-offs between speed and accuracy. And new tools are needed to bring humans into the data-analysis loop at all stages, recognizing that knowledge is often subjective and context-dependent and that some aspects of human intelligence will not be replaced anytime soon by machines. The current report is the result of a study that addressed the following charge: • Assess the current state of data analysis for mining of massive sets and streams of data, • Identify gaps in current practice and theory, and • Propose a research agenda to fill those gaps. Thus, this report examines the frontiers of research that is enabling the analysis of massive data. The major research areas covered are as follows: • Data representation, including characterizations of the raw data and transformations that are often applied to data, particularly transformations that attempt to reduce the representational com- plexity of the data; • Computational complexity issues and how the understanding of such issues supports characterization of the computational re- sources needed and of trade-offs among resources; • Statistical model-building in the massive data setting, including data cleansing and validation;

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SUMMARY 5 • Sampling, both as part of the data-gathering process but also as a key methodology for data reduction; and • Methods for including humans in the data-analysis loop through means such as crowdsourcing, where humans are used as a source of training data for learning algorithms, and visualization, which not only helps humans understand the output of an analysis but also provides human input into model revision. CONCLUSIONS The research and development necessary for the analysis of massive data goes well beyond the province of a single discipline, and one of the main conclusions of this report is the need for a thoroughgoing interdis- ciplinarity in approaching problems of massive data. Computer scientists involved in building big-data systems must develop a deeper awareness of inferential issues, while statisticians must concern themselves with scalabil- ity, algorithmic issues, and real-time decision-making. Mathematicians also have important roles to play, because areas such as applied linear algebra and optimization theory (already contributing to large-scale data analysis) are likely to continue to grow in importance. Also, as just mentioned, the role of human judgment in massive data analysis is essential, and contribu- tions are needed from social scientists and psychologists as well as experts in visualization. Finally, domain scientists and users of technology have an essential role to play in the design of any system for data analysis, and particularly so in the realm of massive data, because of the explosion of design decisions and possible directions that analyses can follow. The current report focuses on the technical issues—computational and inferential—that surround massive data, consciously setting aside major issues in areas such as public policy, law, and ethics that are beyond the current scope. The committee reached the following conclusions: • Recent years have seen rapid growth in parallel and distributed computing systems, developed in large part to serve as the back- bone of the modern Internet-based information ecosystem. These systems have fueled search engines, electronic commerce, social networks, and online entertainment, and they provide the platform on which massive data analysis issues have come to the fore. Part of the challenge going forward is the problem of scaling these systems and algorithms to ever-larger collections of data. It is important to acknowledge, however, that the goals of massive data analysis go beyond the computational and representational issues that have been province of classical search engines and database processing

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6 FRONTIERS IN MASSIVE DATA ANALYSIS to tackling the challenges of statistical inference, where the goal is to turn data into knowledge and to support effective decision- making. Assertions of knowledge require control over errors, and a major part of the challenge of massive data analysis is that of de- veloping statistically well-founded procedures that provide control over errors in the setting of massive data, recognizing that these procedures are themselves computational procedures that consume resources. • There are many sources of potential error in massive data analysis, many of which are due to the interest in “long tails” that often accompany the collection of massive data. Events in the “long tail” may be vanishingly rare, even in a massive data set. For ex- ample, in consumer-facing information technology, where the goal is increasingly that of providing fine-grained, personalized services, there may be little data available for many individuals, even in very large data sets. In science, the goal is often that of finding unusual or rare phenomena, and evidence for such phenomena may be weak, particularly when one considers the increase in error rates associated with searching over large classes of hypotheses. Other sources of error that are prevalent in massive data include the high-dimensional nature of many data sets, issues of heterogeneity, biases arising from uncontrolled sampling patterns, and unknown provenance of items in a database. In general, data analysis is based on assumptions, and the assumptions underlying many classical data analysis methods are likely to be broken in massive data sets. • Massive data analysis is not the province of any one field, but is rather a thoroughly interdisciplinary enterprise. Solutions to massive data problems will require an intimate blending of ideas from computer science and statistics, with essential contributions also needed from applied and pure mathematics, from optimiza- tion theory, and from various engineering areas, notably signal processing and information theory. Domain scientists and users of technology also need to be engaged throughout the process of designing systems for massive data analysis. There are also many issues surrounding massive data (most notably privacy issues) that will require input from legal scholars, economists, and other social scientists, although these aspects are not covered in the current re- port. In general, by bringing interdisciplinary perspectives to bear on massive data analysis, it will be possible to discuss trade-offs that arise when one jointly considers the computational, statisti- cal, scientific, and human-centric constraints that frame a problem. When considering parts of the problem in isolation, one may end up trying to solve a problem that is more general than is required,

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SUMMARY 7 and there may be no feasible solution to that broader problem; a suitable cross-disciplinary outlook can point researchers toward an essential refocusing. For example, absent appropriate insight, one might be led to analyzing worst-case algorithmic behavior, which can be very difficult or misleading, whereas a look at the totality of a problem could reveal that average-case algorithmic behav- ior is quite appropriate from a statistical perspective. Similarly, knowledge of typical query generation might allow one to confine an analysis to a relatively simple subset of all possible queries that would have to be considered in a more general case. And the dif- ficulty of parallel programming in the most general settings may be sidestepped by focusing on useful classes of statistical algorithms that can be implemented with a simplified set of parallel program- ming motifs; moreover, these motifs may suggest natural patterns of storage and access of data on distributed hardware platforms. • While there are many sources of data that are currently fueling the rapid growth in data volume, a few forms of data create par- ticularly interesting challenges. First, much current data involves human language and speech, and increasingly the goal with such data is to extract aspects of the semantic meaning underlying the data. Examples include sentiment analysis, topic models of docu- ments, relational modeling, and the full-blown semantic analyses required by question-answering systems. Second, video and image data are increasingly prevalent, creating a range of challenges in large-scale compression, image processing, computational vision, and semantic analysis. Third, data are increasingly labeled with geo-spatial and temporal tags, creating challenges in maintaining coherence across spatial scales and time. Fourth, many data sets involve networks and graphs, with inferential questions hinging on semantically rich notions such as “centrality” and “influence.” The deeper analyses required by data sources such as these involve difficult and unsolved problems in artificial intelligence and the mathematical sciences that go beyond near-term issues of scaling existing algorithms. The committee notes, however, that massive data itself can provide new leverage on such problems, with ma- chine translation of natural language a frequently cited example. • Massive data analysis creates new challenges at the interface be- tween humans and computers. As just alluded to, many data sets require semantic understanding that is currently beyond the reach of algorithmic approaches and for which human input is needed. This input may be obtained from the data analyst, whose judgment is needed throughout the data analysis process, from the framing of hypotheses to the management of trade-offs (e.g., errors versus

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8 FRONTIERS IN MASSIVE DATA ANALYSIS time) to the selection of questions to pursue further. It may also be obtained from crowdsourcing, a potentially powerful source of inputs that must be used with care, given the many kinds of errors and biases that can arise. In either case, there are many challenges that need to be faced in the design of effective visualizations and interfaces and, more generally, in linking human judgment with data analysis algorithms. • Many data sources operate in real time, producing data streams that can overwhelm data analysis pipelines. Moreover, there is often a desire to make decisions rapidly, perhaps also in real time. These temporal issues provide a particularly clear example of the need for further dialog between statistical and computational re- searchers. Statistical research has rarely considered constraints due to real-time decision-making in the development of data analysis algorithms, and computational research has rarely considered the computational complexity of algorithms for managing statistical risk. • There is a major need for the development of “middleware”— software components that link high-level data analysis specifica- tions with low-level distributed systems architectures. Much of the work on these software components can borrow from tools already developed in scientific computing instances, but the focus will need to change, with algorithmic solutions constrained by statisti- cal needs. There is also a major need for software targeted to end users, such that relatively naive users can carry out massive data analysis without a full understanding of the underlying systems is- sues and statistical issues. However, this is not to suggest that the end goal of massive data analysis software is to develop turnkey solutions. The exercise of effective human judgment will always be required in data analysis, and this judgment needs to be based on an understanding of statistics and computation. The development of massive data analysis systems needs to proceed in parallel with a major effort to educate students and the workforce in statistical thinking and computational thinking. As part of the study that led to this report, the Committee on the Analysis of Massive Data developed a taxonomy of some of the major algorithmic problems arising in massive data analysis. It is hoped that that this proposed taxonomy might help organize the research landscape and also provide a point of departure for the design of the middleware called for above. This taxonomy identifies major tasks that have proved useful in data analysis, grouping them roughly according to mathematical structure and computational strategy. Given the vast scope of the problem of data

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SUMMARY 9 analysis and the lack of existing general-purpose computational systems for massive data analysis from which to generalize, there may certainly be other ways to cluster these computational tasks, and the committee intends this list only to initiate a discussion. The committee identified the following seven major tasks: 1. Basic statistics, 2. Generalized N-body problem, 3. Graph-theoretic computations, 4. Linear algebraic computations, 5. Optimization, 6. Integration, and 7. Alignment problems. For each of these computational classes, there are computational con- straints that arise within any particular problem domain that help to deter- mine the specialized algorithmic strategy to be employed. Most work in the past has focused on a setting that involves a single processor with the entire data set fitting in random access memory (RAM). Additional important set- tings for which algorithms are needed include the following: • The streaming setting, in which data arrive in quick succession, and only a subset can be stored; • The disk-based setting, in which the data are too large to store in RAM but fit on one machine’s disk; • The distributed setting, in which the data are distributed over mul- tiple machines’ RAMs or disks; and • The multi-threaded setting, in which the data lie on one machine having multiple processors that share RAM. Training students to work in massive data analysis will require ex- perience with massive data and with computational infrastructure that permits the real problems associated with massive data to be revealed. The availability of benchmarks, repositories (of data and software), and com- putational infrastructure will be a necessity in training the next generation of “data scientists.” The same point, of course, can be made for academic research: significant new ideas will only emerge if academics are exposed to real-world massive data problems. Finally, the committee emphasizes that massive data analysis is not one problem or one methodology. Data are often heterogeneous, and the best attack on a problem may involve finding sub-problems, where the best solution may be chosen for computational, inferential, or interpretational reasons. The discovery of such sub-problems might itself be an inferen-

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10 FRONTIERS IN MASSIVE DATA ANALYSIS tial problem. On the other hand, data often provide partial views onto a problem, and the solution may involve fusing multiple data sources. These perspectives of segmentation versus fusion will not be in conflict often, but substantial thought and domain knowledge may be required to reveal the appropriate combination. One might hope that general, standardized procedures might emerge that can be used as a default for any massive data set, in much the way that the Fast Fourier Transform is a default procedure in classical signal pro- cessing. However, the committee is pessimistic that such procedures exist in general. That is not to say that useful general procedures and pipelines will not emerge; indeed, one of the goals of this report has been to suggest approaches for designing such procedures. But it is important to emphasize the need for flexibility and for tools that are sensitive to the overall goals of an analysis; massive data analysis cannot, in general, be reduced to turnkey procedures that consumers can use without thought. Rather, the design of a system for massive data analysis will require engineering skill and judg- ment, and deployment of such a system will require modeling decisions, skill with approximations, attention to diagnostics, and robustness. As much as the committee expects to see the emergence of new software and hardware platforms geared to massive data analysis, it also expects to see the emergence of a new class of engineers whose skill is the management of such platforms in the context of the solution of real-world problems.