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67 16 J £ NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board / 7 a / of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National xi M Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the Na- tional Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organisation of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognises the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organised by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project was provided by The Joyce Foundation and agencies providing general support for activities of the Water Science and Technology Board, including the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CES-8711858, the U.S. Department of Energy under Grant No. DE-FG01-83ER60161, the U.S. Geological Survey under Contract No. 14-08-0001-A0562, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under Contract No. X-813619-01, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency under Cooperative Agreement No. EMW-85-K-2063. Available from Water Science and Technology Board National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America
STEERING COMMITTEE JOHN J. BOLAND, (Chairman), The Johns Hopkins University LEE BOTTS, Department of Consumer Services, Chicago, Illinois WILLIAM COOPER, Michigan State University KENNETH W. POTTER, University of Wisconsin-Madison EDITH BROWN WEISS, Georgetown University Law Center PRINCIPAL CONTRIBUTORS FRANK HORVATH, Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Lansing, Michigan ORRIN H. PILKEY, JR., Duke University CLANCY PHILIPSBORN, The Mitigation Assistance Corporation, Boulder, Colorado FRANK H. QUINN, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ann Arbor, Michigan A. DAN TARLOCK, Chicago Kent College Law School WILLIAM L. WOOD, Purdue University PROVOCATEURS LEE BOTTS, Department of Consumer Services, Chicago, Illinois CURTIS E. LARSEN, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia ORIE LOUCKS, Holcomb Research Institute, Butler University BRUCE MITCHELL, University of Waterloo JOHN STOLZENBERG, Wisconsin Legislative Council, Madison, Wisconsin SARAH J. TAYLOR, Chesapeake Bay Critical Area Commission, Annapolis, Maryland PANEL ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE WALTRAUD A. R. BRINKMANN, University of Wisconsin-Madison STANLEY A. CHANGNON, JR., Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, Illinois RICHARD F. KOSOBUD, The University of Illinois at Chicago MARIE E. SANDERSON, University of Windsor JOEL B. SMITH, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. in
PANEL ON STATE COASTAL EROSION MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS MARTIN R. JANNERETH, Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Lansing, Michigan JEANETTE H. LEETE, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, White Bear Lake, Minnesota RICHARD J. MCCARTHY, California Coastal Commission, San Francisco, California DAVID W. OWENS, North Carolina Department of Natural Resources and Community Development, Raleigh, North Carolina COLLOQUIUM COORDINATORS SHEILA D. DAVID, Program Officer CAROLE B. CARSTATER, Program Assistant ANITA A. HALL, Production Assistant IV
WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD MICHAEL KAVANAUGH, (Chairman), James M. Montgomery Consulting Engineers, Oakland, California JOHN J. BOLAND, (Chairman) The Johns Hopkins University, (through June 1988) STEPHEN BURGES, University of Washington RICHARD A. CONWAY, Union Carbide Corporation, South Charleston, West Virginia JAMES M. DAVIDSON, University of Florida (through June 1988) HARRY L. HAMILTON, JR., State University of New York at Albany (through June 1988) JAMES HEANEY, University of Florida R. KEITH HIGGINSON, Idaho Department of Water Resources, Boise HOWARD C. KUNREUTHER, University of Pennsylvania LESTER B. LAVE, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (through June 1988) LUNA B. LEOPOLD, University of California-Berkeley G. RICHARD MARZOLF, Murray State University ROBERT R. MEGLEN, University of Colorado at Denver JAMES W. MERCER, GeoTrans, Herndon, Virginia BETTY H. OLSON, University of California, Irvine P. SURESH C. RAO, University of Florida GORDON ROBECK, Consultant, Laguna Hills, California PATRICIA ROSENFIELD, The Carnegie Corporation of New York A. DAN TARLOCK, Chicago Kent College of Law JAMES R. WALLIS, IBM Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York EDITH BROWN WEISS, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C. (through June 1988) Staff STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director SHEILA D. DAVID, Staff Officer WENDY L. MELGIN, Staff Officer CHRIS ELFRING, Consultant/Project Officer CAROLE B. CARSTATER, Staff Assistant (through April 1988) JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Assistant RENEE A. HAWKINS, Senior Secretary ANITA A. HALL, Senior Secretary
COMMISSION ON ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL SYSTEMS ARDEN L. BEMENT, JR., TRW, Inc., Chairman JOHN A. ARMSTRONG, IBM Corporation NORMAN H. BROOKS, California Institute of Technology DENNIS CHAMOT, Department for Professional Employees, AFL-CIO FLOYD L. CULLER, JR., Electric Power Research Institute DANIEL B. DEBRA, Stanford University RICHARD D. DELAUER, The Orion Group ROBERT R. EVERETT, The MITRE Corporation KENT F. HANSEN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ELVIN R. HEIBERG, Rollins Field Services, Inc. WILLIAM G. HOWARD, JR., National Academy of Engineering RICHARD C. MESSINGER, Cincinnati Milacron, Inc. IRENE C. PEDEN, University of Washington EBERHARDT RECHTIN, University of Southern California GREGORY E. STILLMAN, University of Illinois CHARLES F. TIFFANY, Boeing Military Airplane Company PAUL E. TORGERSEN, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University JOHN B. WACHTMAN, JR., Rutgers University DAVID L. BODDE, Executive Director STEPHEN RATTIEN, Deputy Executive Director VI
COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND RESOURCES NORMAN HACKERMAN, Robert A. Welch Foundation, Chairman GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University HERBERT D. DOAN, The Dow Chemical Company (retired) PETER S. EAGLESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology DEAN E. EASTMAN, IBM, T. J. Watson Research Center MARYE ANNE FOX, University of Texas GERHART FRIEDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory LAWRENCE W. FUNKHOUSER, Chevron Corporation (retired) PHILLIP A. GRIFFITHS, Duke University CHRISTOPHER F. MCKEE, University of California at Berkeley JACK E. OLIVER, Cornell University JEREMIAH P. OSTRIKER, Princeton University Observatory FRANK L. PARKER, Vanderbilt University DENIS J. PRAGER, MacArthur Foundation DAVID M. RAUP, University of Chicago RICHARD J. REED, University of Washington ROY F. SCHWITTERS, EG&G, Inc. ROBERT E. SIEVERS, University of Colorado LEON T. SILVER, California Institute of Technology LARRY L. SMARR, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign EDWARD C. STONE, JR., California Institute of Technology KARL K. TUREKIAN, Yale University RAPHAEL G. KASPER, Executive Director MYRON F. UMAN, Associate Executive Director Vll
Preface In 1985 the Water Science and Technology Board (WSTB) inau- gurated a colloquium series, Emerging Issues in Water Science and Technology, to focus debate and attention on important scientific and engineering issues. Since then, the WSTB has organized and hosted such colloquia annually and has published reports on a variety of topics. The fourth colloquium, held in Chicago on March 17-18, 1988, addressed hydrometeorological, engineering, and land management and policy issues related to fluctuations in Great Lakes water levels. The board felt that this topic would be of importance because of the possibilities of a rising sea level and the impacts of climate change on hydrology. A steering committee of board members, working closely with WSTB staff, created and organized the colloquium format. Six for- mal papers were presented by recognized experts concerning aspects of lake level fluctuations, shoreline impacts of water level changes, alternative solution strategies, policy conflicts in existing laws, multi- jurisdictional issues, and the role of the private sector. In addition, panel discussions also focused on climate change and state coastal erosion management programs. The steering committee carefully monitored the presentation of the papers by reviewing preliminary outlines and manuscripts in progress. Provocateurs and panelists were selected to stimulate IX
x PREFACE debate and discussion after the authors presented highlights from their papers. The report has three major sections: an overview, the issue papers by individual authors, and the panel discussions. Colloquium Chairman John J. Boland prepared the overview based on a review of the issue papers and the presentations made by the provocateurs and panelists. The entire report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors, but only the overview has been subjected to the report review criteria established by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The issue papers have been reviewed for factual correctness. The WSTB acknowledges the generous contributions of time and expertise of all colloquium participants. Special thanks are extended to those who made formal presentations, to those who acted as provocateurs to stimulate discussion, and to those who participated as panel members.
Contents OVERVIEW, by John J. Boland 1 ISSUE PAPERS AND PROVOCATEURS' COMMENTS 1 FLUCTUATION OF GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS, by Frank H. Quinn 13 PROVOCATEUR'S COMMENTS by Curtis E. Larsen, 25 2 IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS, by Frank J. Horvath, Martin R. Jannereth, and Chris A. Shafer 27 PROVOCATEUR'S COMMENTS by Sarah J. Taylor, 44 3 STRATEGIES FOR THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF GREAT LAKES SHORELINES, by William L. Wood 46 PROVOCATEUR'S COMMENTS by Bruce Mitchell, 55 4 POLICY CONFLICTS IN THE MANAGEMENT OF RETREATING SHORELINES, by Orrin H. Pilkey, Jr., Tonya D. Clayton, and William J. Neal 59 PROVOCATEUR'S COMMENTS by Lee Botts, 76 5 MULTIJURISDICTIONAL ISSUES, by A. Dan Tarlock 78 PROVOCATEUR'S COMMENTS by Orie Loucks, 92 XI
xii CONTENTS 6 PRIVATE SECTOR ROLES AND RESPONSES, by Clancy Philipsborn 95 PROVOCATEUR'S COMMENTS by John Stolzenberg, 108 PANEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region, by Waltraud A. R. Brinkmann 115 Climate Change: The Knowns and Unknowns, by Stanley A. Changnon, Jr. 117 Economic Research, The Greenhouse Effect, and Fluctuating Great Lakes Water Levels, by Richard F. Kosobud 120 Climate Change and Great Lakes Levels, by Marie E. Sanderson 123 Preliminary Results from EPA Study of Impacts of Global Warming on the Great Lakes Basin, by Joel B. Smith 127 PANEL DISCUSSION: STATE COASTAL EROSION MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS Michigan's Coastal Erosion Management Program, by Martin R. Jannereth 135 Coastal Erosion Management in Minnesota, by Jeanette H. Leete 138 Summary of California Coastal Commission Shoreline Erosion Policy, by Richard J. McCarthy 141 Addressing Coastal Erosion in North Carolina, by David W. Owens 145 APPENDIXES A Biographical Sketches of Principal Contributors 151 B Attendees at Colloquium 158
These lakes are mean and tough, and the soft air, the calm, glossy- blue surface under a full moon of summer . . . give no hint of their latent ferocity and the tragedies they can pile up in a few hours of swift and terrible anger. âH. Hatcher, The Great Lakes
