GEOTARGETED

ALERTS AND WARNINGS

REPORT OF A WORKSHOP ON CURRENT
KNOWLEDGE AND RESEARCH GAPS

Committee on Geotargeted Disaster Alerts and Warnings:
A Workshop on Current Knowledge and Research Gaps

Computer Science and Telecommunications Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

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Committee on Geotargeted Disaster Alerts and Warnings: A Workshop on Current Knowledge and Research Gaps Computer Science and Telecommunications Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS  500 Fifth Street, NW  Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi- neering, and the Institute of Medicine. Support for this project was provided by the Department of Homeland Secu- rity under contract number HSHQDC-11-D-00009, task order number HSHQDC- 12-J-00189. Any opinions, findings, or conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organiza- tions that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13  978-0-309-28985-6 International Standard Book Number-10:  0-309-28985-8 This report is available from: Computer Science and Telecommunications Board National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern- ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem- bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis- ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in pro- viding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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OTHER RELATED REPORTS OF THE COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD Public Response to Alerts and Warnings Using Social Media: Summary of a Workshop on Current Knowledge and Research Gaps (2013) Public Response to Alerts and Warnings on Mobile Devices: Summary of a Workshop on Current Knowledge and Research Gaps (2011) Improving Disaster Management: The Role of IT in Mitigation, Preparedness, Response, and Recovery (2007) The Internet Under Crisis Conditions: Learning from September 11 (2003) Limited copies of CSTB reports are available free of charge from Computer Science and Telecommunications Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-2605/cstb@nas.edu www.cstb.org iv

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COMMITTEE ON GEOTARGETED ALERTS AND WARNINGS: A WORKSHOP ON CURRENT KNOWLEDGE AND RESEARCH GAPS ELLIS M. STANLEY, SR., Independent Consultant, Atlanta, Georgia, Chair ART BOTTERELL, Carnegie Mellon University, Silicon Valley K. MANI CHANDY, California Institute of Technology DENNIS S. MILETI, University of Colorado, Boulder HELENA MITCHELL, Georgia Institute of Technology RAMESH R. RAO, University of California, San Diego SHASHI SHEKHAR, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis MING-HSIANG TSOU, San Diego State University Staff VIRGINIA BACON TALATI, Program Officer SHENAE BRADLEY, Senior Program Assistant LINDA WALKER, Senior Program Assistant JON EISENBERG, Director, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board v

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COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD ROBERT F. SPROULL, Oracle (retired), Chair JACK L. GOLDSMITH III, Harvard Law School SEYMOUR E. GOODMAN, Georgia Institute of Technology ROBERT KRAUT, Carnegie Mellon University SUSAN LANDAU, Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study PETER LEE, Microsoft Corporation DAVID E. LIDDLE, US Venture Partners JOHN STANKOVIC, University of Virginia JOHN A. SWAINSON, Dell, Inc. PETER SZOLOVITS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ERNEST J. WILSON, University of Southern California KATHERINE YELICK, University of California, Berkeley Staff JON EISENBERG, Director VIRGINIA BACON TALATI, Program Officer SHENAE BRADLEY, Senior Program Assistant RENEE HAWKINS, Financial and Administrative Manager HERBERT S. LIN, Chief Scientist, CSTB LYNETTE I. MILLETT, Associate Director, CSTB ERIC WHITAKER, Senior Program Assistant For more information on CSTB, see its website at http://www.cstb.org, write to CSTB, National Research Council, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001, call (202) 334-2605, or e‑mail the CSTB at cstb@nas.edu. vi

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Preface F ollowing earlier workshops organized by separate National Research Council (NRC) committees that explored the public response to alerts and warnings delivered to mobile devices1 and alerts and warnings delivered using social media,2 the Department of Homeland Security’s Science and Technology Directorate asked the Computer Sci- ence and Telecommunications Board of the NRC to convene a workshop to examine more precise geotargeting of alerts and warnings. This report presents a summary of a February 21-22, 2013, workshop organized by the NRC’s Committee on Geotargeted Disaster Alerts and Warnings: Cur- rent Knowledge and Research Gaps. The workshop brought together social science researchers, technologists, emergency management profes- sionals, and other experts to explore (1) what is known about how the public responds to geotargeted alerts and warnings; (2) technologies and techniques for enhancing the geotargeting of alerts and warnings; and (3) open research questions about how to effectively use geotargeted alerts and warnings and technology gaps. The complete statement of task for the workshop is provided in Box P.1, and the workshop agenda is pro- vided in Appendix A. 1  National Research Council, Public Response to Alerts and Warnings on Mobile Devices: Sum- mary of a Workshop on Current Knowledge and Research Gaps, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2011. 2  National Research Council, Public Response to Alerts and Warnings Using Social Media: Report of a Workshop on Current Knowledge and Research Gaps, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2013. vii

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viii PREFACE BOX P.1 Statement of Task An ad hoc steering committee will plan and conduct a public workshop that will consider the potential for more precise geographical targeting to improve the effectiveness of disaster alerts and warnings; examine the opportunities presented by current and emerging technologies to create, deliver, and display alerts and warnings with greater geographical precision; consider the circum- stances where more granular targeting would be useful; and examine the po- tential roles of federal, state, and local agencies and private sector information and communications providers in delivering more targeted alerts. The com- mittee will organize the workshop to include a mix of individual presentations, panels, breakout discussions, and question-and-answer sessions to develop an understanding of the relevant research communities, research already com- pleted, ongoing research, and future research needs. Key stakeholders would be identified and invited to participate. The committee will develop the work- shop agenda, select and invite speakers and discussants, and moderate the discussions. An unedited (verbatim) transcript of the event would be prepared. A report summarizing the committee’s assessment of what transpired at the workshop would also be prepared. This report summarizes presentations made by invited speakers and other remarks by workshop participants. In keeping with the workshop’s purpose of exploring an emerging topic, this summary does not contain findings or recommendations. Nor, in keeping with NRC guidelines for workshop reports, does it necessarily reflect consensus views of the work- shop participants or the organizing committee. The summary draws on the prepared remarks of workshop presenters, comments made by work- shop participants, and the ensuing discussion. The first two chapters of this report summarize presentations and discussions on the value of geotargeted alerts and warnings (Chapter 1) and technologies and tools for geotargeted alerts and warnings (Chapter 2). Chapter 3 summarizes the research questions—reflecting gaps in our present understanding—that were identified by workshop participants during the course of the workshop. Appendix A provides the workshop agenda, and speaker biosketches are provided in Appendix B. Appendix C provides biosketches of the committee members. Ellis Stanley, Chair Committee on Geotargeted Disaster Alerts and Warnings: Current Knowledge and Research Gaps

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers T his report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and respon- siveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Hisham Kassab, MobiLaps, LLC, Robert Kraut, Carnegie Mellon University, Leslie Luke, San Diego County Office of Emergency Services, Patrick P. Meier, Qatar Foundation Computer Research Institute, Richard Muth, Baltimore County School District, Brenda Phillips, Oklahoma State University, and Robert Sproull, Oracle (retired). Although the reviewers listed above have provided many construc- tive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the con- clusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Joseph Traub, ix

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x ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REVIEWERS Columbia University. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring com- mittee and the institution.

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Contents 1 THE ROLE OF GEOTARGETED ALERTS AND WARNINGS 1 IN DISASTER RESPONSE Current and Future Vision for the Integrated Public Alert and Warning System, 3 Some Current Knowledge and Research on Geotargeted Alerts and Warnings, 8 Hazard Type and Geotargeting, 15 Data Security and Privacy Challenges, 19 2 TECHNOLOGIES AND TOOLS FOR GEOTARGETED 24 ALERTS AND WARNINGS Continuing Opportunities for Using Traditional  Technologies for Geotargeted Alerts and Lessons for the Use of New Technologies, 25 Technologies for Geotargeting Alerts Over the Internet, 29 Mobile Device Location Determination Capabilities, 31 Current and Future Technologies for Geotargeting Alerts to Mobile Devices, 32 3 RESEARCH NEEDS AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES 35 Facilitating and Improving Public Response, 35 Value of Geotargeted Information, 36 Developing and Deploying Technology, 37 Respecting Privacy and Meeting Security Needs, 38 Facilitating and Encouraging Use by Practitioners, 38 xi

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xii CONTENTS APPENDIXES A Workshop Agenda 41 B Biosketches of Workshop Speakers 46 C Biosketches of Committee Members 60