More and Better Food: An Egyptian Demonstration Project (1986)

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CHAPTER I STATUS OF FOOD, AGRICULTURE, AND NUTRITION IN EGYPT Ever since man discovered the fertile soil along the banks of the River Nile more than 5,000 years ago, Egypt's land has been under cultivation. Today, agri- culture continues to play a major role in the Egyptian economy. The land being farmed is about 6 million fed- dans; through intensive crop rotation, the cultivated area covers more than 11 million feddans. Agricultural products constitute 21 percent of Egypt's gross national product (GNP) and 70 percent of Egypt's total exports. Fifty-seven percent of the popul- ation live in farming areas, and 51 percent of Egypt's manpower work in agriculture. Food and textile products comprise about 42 percent of Egypt's total industrial production. Despite these statistics, Egypt faces a critical situation: its consumption of major food commodities significantly exceeds domestic supply, sharply decreasing self-sufficiency levels and necessitating importation of large quantitities of food and feed products. The simul- taneous effects of population growth and a decline in production quality exacerbate the problem. The expansion of the Egyptian agricultural sector through modern technology offers the potential for reduc- ing the rapidly widening gap between domestic production and utilization. This report explores the dimensions of the food crisis in Egypt and analyzes the More and Better Food Demonstration Project, which shows promise for help- ing the country rectify its current production/consump- tion imbalance. GEOGRAPHY AND DEMOGRAPHY The Arab Republic of Egypt, located at the extreme northeast corner of Africa, has a total area of 1,000,000 square kilometers (306,000 square miles), almost 96 per- cent of which is desert. The remaining 4 percent is the

- 2 - long, narrow, fertile Nile Valley and its delta in the north. The area under cultivation equals 6 million fed- dans (6.228 million acres), though intensive rotation creates a cropping area of about 11.4 million feddans. Ninety-six percent of Egypt's population live in the cultivated region. Egypt is divided into 25 political regions called "governorates," of which 4 are city governorates (Cairo, Alexandria, Port Said, and Suez), 9 are governorates of Lower Egypt, 8 are governorates of Upper Egypt, and 4 are frontier governorates. (See Figure 1.) The population increased from.16 million in 1937 to 41 million in 1979 (Figure 2). During the mid-1960s, the population growth rate reached 2.5 percent. By 1978, the rate had climbed to 2.8 percent, and the population to 40 million; in 1979, the rate had risen to 2.9 percent. The 1985 population is estimated to be 47.8 million. By 1990, the projected population will be 54 million; by 1995, 61 million; and by the year 2000, Egypt's popul- ation is expected to reach 66 million. Egypt is the most populous of the Middle East Arab states. The estimated population density in 1985 was 124 persons per square mile. However, the country's capital, Cairo, with a total population of 12 million, has a pop- ulation density of about 90,000 persons per square mile. Fifty-seven percent of the population live in rural areas. An age breakdown of the Egyptian population as of 1976 shows a high percentage of young children. Children in the 0-14 years age bracket account for more than 40 percent of the total population. This means high food consumption by a large segment not participating in eco- nomic production. The 15-19 age bracket accounts for 10.4 percent of the population; ages 20-24, 8.9 percent; ages 25-59, 34.1 percent; and the over 60 bracket, 5.4 percent. TABLE 1 Population Distribution by Age and Sex (1976) (in millions) Age Male Female Total l-14 7.46 7.08 14.54 15-19 2.14 1.85 3.99 20-59 7.83 7.95 15.78 60 and above 1.12 1.17 2.29 18.55 18.05 36.60 SOURCE: 0. Galal. "State of Food and Nutrition in Egypt," UNICEF/MOH, Cairo, Egypt, October 1984.

- 3 - FIGURE 1 Partial map of Egypt showing governorates where MBF projects occurred. (H.A. El-Tobgy. "Contemporary Egyptian Agriculture," Second Edition, The Ford Foundation, Cairo, Egypt, 1976.)

- 4 - 70 60 :? 50 § O Q. 40 30 20 10 1897 1937 1980 2000 YEAR FIGURE 2 Population growth in Egypt, 1897-1980, with projections to the year 2000. ("Strategies for Accelerating Agricultural Development," a report of the Presidential Mission on Agricultural Development in Egypt. MOA, Egypt, and USAID, July 1982.)

- 5 - The following table shows educational attainment in the male and female populations above 10 years of age. The high illiteracy rate among women is considered to be a major factor affecting the poor nutritional and health status of children and mothers. TABLE 2 Educational Attainment by Sex (1976) Education Male Female Total Illiterate 43.2 71.0 56.7 Read or Write 33.2 16.2 25.1 Secondary School 23.6 12.8 18.4 or Higher 100.0 SOURCE: 0. Galal. "State of Food and Nutrition in Egypt," UNICEF/MOH, Cairo, Egypt, October 1984. Population records of Egyptian rural and urban areas reveal that the rural population doubled during a 50-year period, while the urban population more than quadrupled. The rural population dropped from 73 percent in 1927 to 56 percent in 1976, and the urban population grew from 27 percent to 44 percent (Table 3). TABLE 3 Population Distribution in Rural and Urban Settings (1927 and 1976) Year Population in Millions Population (%) Rural Urban Rural Urban 1927 1976 10.37 20.56 3.81 16.10 73.12 56.09 26.88 43.91 SOURCE: 0. Galal. "State of Food and Nutrition in Egypt," UNICEF/MOH, Cairo, Egypt, October 1984. The growing urbanization through rural to urban migration has affected the demand for food. Urbanization

- 6 - also means cuts in food-prpducing manpower. Moreover, urbanization often leads to slums populated by low-income individuals with low levels of education, poor nutrition, and poor health and hygiene standards. The Egyptian birth rate is very high. The death rate decreased from 17 per 1,000 to 10.3 per 1,000 from 1960 to 1982. The death rate among children followed a simi- lar pattern. (See Table 4.) TABLE 4 Change in Birth and Death Rates per 1,000 Persons Year Birth Death Population Rate Rate Increase 1960 1970 43.1 35.1 16.9 15.1 26.2 19.4 1980 40.8 10.4 30.4 1981 38.0 10.2 26.8 1982 36.9 10.3 26.6 SOURCE: 0. Galal. "State of Food and Nutrition in Egypt," UNICEF/MOH, Cairo, Egypt, October 1984. Active manpower (ages 20-60), totaling 43 percent of the population, is distributed among the economic sectors as follows: agriculture, 52 percent; industry, 26 per- cent; and services, 23 percent. The 1980 GNP was estimated at LE 15.808 billion; the per capita GNP was LE 374. Agriculture contributes 20.6 percent to the country's GNP, and industry, 26.7 percent. EGYPT'S AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION This section provides a statistical overview of agricultural production in Egypt. Changes in Crop Pattern Table 5 gives estimated averages of areas cultivated with various crops during the periods 1969-1971, 1979-1981, and 1983-1984.

TABLE 5 Crop Patterns in Egypt Crop 1969-1971 1979-1981 Area(a) Percent(b) AreaU) Percent(b) 1983-1984 AreaU) Percent(b) GRAINS Wheat Barley Corn Sorghum Rice 4,535 1,300 86 1,503 489 1,157 42.2 12.0 0.8 14.0 4.6 10.8 4,774 1,372 98 1,905 410 989 42.9 12.3 0.9 17.1 3.7 8.9 4,682 1,475 41.1 '12.9 1,800 400 1,007 15.8 3.5 8.8 LEGUMES 436 4.1 349 3.1 373 3.3 OILSEED Peanuts Sesame Soybean 105 43 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 165 29 39 97 1.5 0.3 0.4 0.8 233 28 35 2.1 0.3 0.3 59 3 170 1.5 SUGARCANE 183 1.7 251 2.3 278 2.4 FIBER Cotton Flax 1,618 1,591 27 15.0 14.8 0.2 1,269 1,206 63 11.4 10.8 0.6 1,061 1,023 38 9.3 9.0 0.3 CLOVER 2,748 25.6 2,729 24.5 2,782 24.4 VEGETABLES 576 5.4 1,030 9.2 885 7.8 FRUITS 241 2.2 361 3.2 448 3.9 OTHERS 299 2.8 213 1.9 647 5.7 TOTAL 10,741 100.0 11,141 100.0 11,390 100.0 % Crop Intensity 179.4 186.1 190.2 (a) Area: feddans x 1,000. (b) Percentage of total cultivated area. SOURCE: "Human and Material Resources in Agricultural Scientific Research," MOA, Cairo, Egypt, November 1983.

- 8 - In the early 1960s, the Egyptian government estab- lished fixed areas for major crops—in particular, cot- ton, rice, wheat, and corn. The government also took over the marketing of cotton and sugarcane and required farmers to give a certain amount of their rice and peanut crops to the cooperative. However, as Table 5 shows, farmers did not follow these regulations: areas cultivated in cotton, rice, legumes, peanuts, and sesame decreased, and the produc- tion of fodder crops, wheat, corn, soybeans, and sugar- cane rose. Cotton, traditionally Egypt's major crop, showed the greatest decrease in cultivated area. During the past 15 years, cotton farmland was reduced by 36 percent. Clover production occupies one-fourth of the cultivatable area, reflecting the extent to which farm animals share the land with man. Soybeans are increasing significantly in the crop pattern, from 3,000 acres in 1969 to 170,000 acres in 1984. The cultivation of vegetables and fruits was another way in which farmers avoided the crop rotation rules. The total cultivatable area given to those agricultural products increased from 241,000 feddans to 448,000 fed- dans over the past 15 years. Vegetables now represent 7.8 percent of the total area, compared with 5.4 percent in 1969. Changes in Crop Production Egypt's agricultural production does not keep pace with the nation's ever-growing demand for food, a demand intensified both by population increases and by increased per capita consumption rate (that results from the rise in per capita income—Egyptians have more money to spend on food). Table 6 shows the size of local production of agri- cultural crops during the period 1969-1981. The data reveals that changes in production amounts have varied with different crops. Some crops—such as wheat, corn, soybean, linseed, sugarcane, vegetables, fruits, and animal products—increased in production. Other crops— such as rice, legumes, peanuts, and sesame—showed a reduction. The data also reveals that wheat, which constituted 22.9 percent of all grain production during the 1979-1981 period, increased from about 1.5 million tons in 1969-1971 to 1.9 million tons in 1979-1981 (for a 2 per- cent increase in annual production). Corn, at 38.7 per- cent of the total grain crop (1979-1981), increased from 2.4 million tons in 1969-1971 to 3.2 million tons in 1979-1981 (about 2.9 percent increase in annual produc- tion) .

- 9 - TABLE 6 Agricultural Production in Egypt Crop 1969-1971 1979-1981 Average Percent Average Percent Percent Increase/ Decrease 1969 - 1981 GRAINS 7,372 100.0 8,154 100.0 +20.9 Wheat Barley Corn Sorghum Rice 1,505 88 2,367 847 2,565 20.4 1.2 32.1 11.5 34.8 1,864 111 3,159 643 2,377 22.9 1.4 38.7 7.9 29.1 +23.9 +26.1 +33.5 -24.1 -7.3 LEGUMES 349 276 -20.9 OILSEED 971 100.0 979 100.0 +0.8 Peanuts Sesame Soybean Cottonseed Linseed 38 19 1 901 12 3.9 2.0 0.1 92.8 1.2 26 2.7 1.5 11.1 81.1 3.3 -31.6 -21.0 +108.0 -11.5 +166.0 IS 109 797 32 SUGARCANE 7,107 8,732 +22.9 COTTON FIBER LINEN FIBER 8,914 66 8,629 168 -3.2 +154.0 VEGETABLES 4,635 6,731 +45.2 FRUITS 1,420 6,731 +45.2 MEAT 378 100.0 469 100.0 +24.1 Animal Meat Poultry 282 96 74.7 25.4 337 . 71.9 28.1 + 19.5 +37.5 132 (a) Tons x 1,000 except for cotton fiber, which is in thousand metric tons. (b) Percentage of total production for that category of agricultural product. SOURCE: "Human and Material Resources in Agricultural Scientific Research," MOA, Cairo, Egypt, November 1983.

- 10 - Vegetable and fruit production increased markedly. Vegetable production grew from 4.6 million tons in 1969-1971 to 6.7 million tons in 1979-1981 (a 3.8 percent increase in annual production). Fruit production increased from 1.4 to 6.7 million tons. In contrast, production rates decreased for rice (7 percent), sorghum (24 percent), and peanuts (31 per- cent) during the same period. This decrease in produc- tion was caused primarily by the farmers' reluctance to grow those crops because of the government's pricing policy and the marketing regulations that require a specified yield to be turned over to government collec- tion centers. Soybeans, which were first produced experimentally in the 1970s, increased from 1,000 tons (1969-1971) to 109,000 tons by 1981, and currently constitute about 11 percent of total oilseeds. Sugarcane showed an aver- age annual increase in production of about 1.9 percent. Cotton production remained relatively stable (8.9 million metric tons in 1969-1971 and 8.6 million metric tons in 1979-1981). The animal and poultry production rate was somewhat higher than that of plant products; overall meat produc- tion showed an annual increase of 2.2 percent between the two periods. Generally speaking, changes in the overall production of different crops are due to changes in the cultivated area and productivity of the land. Standard Measures of Agricultural Production Values given in Table 7 represent real standard measures of agricultural production for the period 1970-1981. Using the 1970 overall production as a base value of 100, the 1981 production of plant products was 122 percent; animal products, 125 percent; and overall agricultural products, 123 percent. The data also reveals an average annual increase in production of about 2 percent for agricultural products during the 1970s, and shows that animal production exceeded plant production. Changes in Production per Feddan There was little consistency in annual production changes for major crops per feddan during the period 1970-1981 (Table 8). Cotton, corn, linseed, and soybeans showed increased production per feddan; many other crops tended to decrease.

- 11 - TABLE 7 Standard Measures for Agricultural Production (1970-1981)(a> Overall Agricultural Products Year Plant Products Animal Products 1970 100.0 100.0 100.0 1971 103.4 101.9 102.9 1972 105.0 104.4 104.8 1973 105.8 106.1 105.8 1974 104.6 108.6 105.8 1975 106.8 110.5 107.8 1976 109.2 112.4 110.1 1977 105.1 115.1 108.1 1978 113.8 116.4 114.5 1979 118.3 119.0 118.5 1980 123.0 123.2 123.0 1981 122.4 125.0 123.1 (a) Reference Standard Value for 1970 100. SOURCE: "Human and Material Resources in Agricultural Scientific Research," MOA, Cairo, Egypt, November 1983. The annual increase in cotton fibers per feddan amounted to 0.14 metric tons during the period 1970-1981. This accounted for Egypt's constant production level of cotton even though the cultivated area decreased. Yield per feddan for wheat, rice, peanuts, potatoes, onions, and oranges did not show consistent increases or decreases, despite efforts by the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) to regulate production of those crops. Beans, sugarcane, lentils, sesame, and sorghum showed real decreases in yield per feddan. For example, the annual reduction in sugarcane amounted to 0.45 tons per feddan. Value of Agricultural Products Table 9 gives estimates of the value of agricultural products during the periods 1969-1971 and 1979-1981. Data reveals an increase from LE 1,048 million to LE 2,984 million during those periods, an annual rate of approximately 9.7 percent. The value of plant products increased from LE 782 million to LE 1,940 million by 1981. Field crops constitute the largest proportion of the value both of plant products (80 percent for

- 12 - TABLE 8 Changes in Production per Feddan for Major Crops (1970-1981)(a> Annual Standard Deviation Averages Crop 1970 1981 1970-1981 Wheat ^^ 1.16 1.39 1.36 Corn +0.01 1.59 1.72 1.59 Rice — 2.28 2.34 2.27 Sorghum -0.02 1.75 1.58 1.64 Beans +0.01 0.92 0.87 0.95 Lentils -0.04 0.70 0.43 0.61 Cotton +0.14 5.48 7.14 5.90 Flax +0.03 2.43 2.79 2.58 Peanuts — 0.897 0.899 0.872 Sesame -0.02 0.49 0.41 0.47 Soybean +0.08 0.31 1.19 0.70 Linseed +0.01 0.45 0.51 0.49 Sugarcane -0.45 37.29 34.14 35.72 Onion — 6.84 8.33 7.95 Potatoes — 7.11 7.26 7.04 Tomatoes +0.10 7.11 7.26 6.74 Oranges ^ ^ « 6.78 7.29 (a) All in tons except cotton, which is in metric tons. SOURCE: "Human and Material Resources in Agricultural Scientific Research," MOA, Cairo, Egypt, November 1983. 1969-1971 and 65 percent for 1979-1981) and of agricul- tural products as a whole (60 percent and 42 percent, respectively). Of the field crops, cotton had the highest value—LE 371 million (29.5 percent of the value of field crops for the period 1979-1981). Corn ranked second with a value of LE 282 million (22.5 percent), followed by rice, LE 168 million (13.4 percent); and wheat, LE 133 million (10.6 percent). Vegetables and fruits followed field crops, with an average annual production value of LE 439 million for vegetables and LE 277 million for fruits; these consti- tute 22.6 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively, of overall field crop value for 1979-1981. The LE 266 million value of anima1, poultry, and fish products was 25.4 percent of the 1969-1971 total cost of agricultural products. In 1979-1981, that product value increased greatly to LE 1,044 million, representing

- 13 - TABLE 9 Value of Agricultural Production(8) 1969-1971 Average Percent 1979-1981 Average Percent Product PLANT 782 74.6 1,940 74.6 Field crops Vegetables Fruits Medicinal 624 110 59.5 10.5 4.4 0.2 1,256 439 227 18 42.1 14.7 7.6 0.6 46 2 ANIMAL AND POULTRY 266 25.4 1,044 35.0 Animal meat Poultry meat Other(k) 126 35 105 12.1 3.3 10.0 404 131 509 13.5 4.4 17.1 TOTAL AGRICULTURAL 1,048 100.0 2,984 100.0 (a) In millions of Egyptian pounds. (b) Includes milk, egg, fish, honey, wool. SOURCE: "Human and Material Resources in Agricultural Scientific Research," MOA, Cairo, Egypt, November 1983. 35 percent of the total value of agricultural products for that period. EGYPT'S FOOD INDUSTRIES Until the early 1950s, Egypt had no stable policy for the food industry. The few factories that existed were owned by foreigners, and most of the products were con- sumed domestically; there were no plans for export. Many factories went out of business because they were unable to compete with imported products. During the Second World War, 12 food canning factories had been established to can products for the Allies and the local market. After the war, imported canned food flooded the Egyptian market, and 11 of the 12 factories were closed. Only the Kaha Factory survived, and today it is one of the biggest food canning factories in the country. In 1956, with the establishment of the first ministry of industry, the government adopted a national industri- alization policy. In 1957, the first five-year plan for

- 14 - industrialization was released; that plan called for the establishment of food industries. The government also established the General Organization for the Five-Year Plan. Under that plan, priority was given to industries that had available local resources, that produced domestically needed products, and that had a potential for export, especially to Arab regions. Preference was also given to labor-intensive industries. The first five-year plan included 130 projects. Among the major food-related industries developed were: o The Edfina Company for Food Preservation o A canning and preservation factory in Tahrir Province o A sardine and shrimp factory in Damietta o The Al-Nasr Dairy Company, with factories in Tanta, Mansoura, and Ismailia o A sugar factory in Edfu o The Al-Nasr Drying Factory in Sohag. The second five-year plan was developed in 1965 with 50 more projects. Two major problems faced the ambitious first and second plans: poor coordination among sectors and productivity/quality control relationships. o Poor coordination among sectors: Poor coordination between agricultural and industrial sectors greatly limited produc- tion. Prices fixed by government discouraged farmers from growing crops in amounts needed by industry; the sugarcane industry was especially hard hit. — Some economic sectors, especially the con- struction industry, failed to fulfill their obligations; the delay resulted in termin- ation of set plans. Shortages of local funds and increases in prices of building materials contributed to the problem. o Poor Productivity/Quality Control Relationships: Shortage of skilled labor affected develop- ment of quality products. — The dependence of the economy on labor-intensive industries affected final product costs.

- 15 - At present, Egypt's food industry includes six major groups: sugar, bakery products, drink and beverage pro- ducts, oilseed processing, milk and dairy products, and food preservation and canning. The Food Industry's Position among Other Industries The food industry in Egypt leads all other industries in terms of the value of products. The total value of industrial production in 1976 was about LE 3,363.7 mil- lion. The different sectors and their contributions are as follows: TABLE 10 Comparison of Value of Major Industries Million LE Percent Food 811.0 24.1 Textiles and weaving 754.2 22.4 Chemical 505.1 15.0 Machine and metallic 501.5 14.9 Building (construction) 189.5 5.6 Petrol 444.1 13.3 Electricity 135.0 4.0 Mining 23.3 0.7 3363.7 100.0 SOURCE: A.S. El-Nockrashy. "Food Processing in Egypt: Status, Prospects and Recommendations," report submitted to ASRT, Cairo, Egypt, June 1980. Changes in Size and Value Table 11 gives the size of production of major industrial food products during the period 1965-1980. Table 12 shows the change in the value of industrial food products during the same period. The data reveals that the standard annual increase in the value of industrial food products, at the running cost, was about 10.8 percent. Note that agriculture provides the raw materials for industries (food and tex- tile) that contribute 46.5 percent to the total value of all local industries.

- 16 - TABLE 11 Size of Production of Food Industries (1966-1980) Unit of Measurement Product 1965 1970 1975 1980 Sugarcane Glucose 1,000 ton 1,000 ton 354 33 286 39 697 36 1,016 40 Blackstrap molasses Chocolate candy Bakery products Dried vegetables Fruit preserves Tomato sauce Canned legumes Yeast Starch Malt Vinegar Cottonseed oil Shortening White cheese Processed cheese Pasteurized milk Canned fish *L - liters 1,000 ton ton 1,000 ton ton ton ton ton ton 1,000 ton 1,000 ton million L* 1,000 ton 1,000 ton 1,000 ton ton 1,000 ton ton 32 2,732 58 3,189 170 994 5,537 3,251 12 4 6 148 41 116 4,108 20 7,106 48 1,885 56 4,036 1,239 3,279 7,017 15 2 4 116 64 165 7,679 29 1,271 60 1,218 74 4,907 14 2,872 5,606 9,167 18 2 8 157 122 121 9,165 41 1,769 74 5,130 102 6,619 5 5,240 6,348 698 16 11 196 159 162 1,535 52 5,077 SOURCE: "Human and Material Resources in Agricultural Scientific Research," MOA, Cairo, Egypt, November 1983. PRODUCTION-CONSUMPTION GAP The shortage of food is by far the most serious impediment to development in Egypt. Egypt's ever-increasing dependence on imports absorbs a large portion of the nation's foreign exchange income. Food Gap Food consumption and food production data show a continuous and widening gap in both quantity and value. In 1960, the gap between food consumption and food pro- duction was 1 million tons; in 1970, it was 1.7 million tons, and by 1980, the gap had increased to 7.4 million tons. In contrast, only 20 years earlier (in 1960) Egypt was self-sufficient in all crops but wheat.

- 17 - TABLE 12 Change in the Value of Industrial Food Products (1965-1980)<a) Year Value 1965 385.4 1966 308.7 1967 341.5 1968 368.3 1969 435.2 1970 482.8 1971 485.6 1972 302.6 1973 563.6 1974 614.8 1975 708.0 1976 778.0 1977 871.0 1978 989.0 1979 1,158.0 1980 1,442.0 (a) In millions of Egyptian pounds at the running cost. SOURCE: "Human and Material Resources in Agricultural Scientific Research," MOA, Cairo, Egypt, November 1983. Table 13 shows the tremendous burden on the national economy of the value (cost) of the food gap. The value TABLE 13 Change in Value of Food Gap in Egypt, (1960-1980)<«> ELEMENT 1960 1970 1972 1974 1980 Production $4 ,201 $5, 737 $6 ,035 $6 ,358 $7 ,428 Consumption 4 ,351 5, 921 6 ,381 7 ,078 9 ,298 Imports 319 683 734 948 2 ,104 Exports 169 499 388 228 234 Gap 150 184 346 720 1,870 (a) Values in millions of dollars. SOURCE: "Human and Material Resources in Agricultural Scientific Research," MOA, Cairo, Egypt, November 1983.

- 18 - was $150 million in 1960, $184 million in 1970, and then reached the shocking figure of $1.9 billion in 1980 (a ten-fold increase in 10 years). Wheat makes the major contribution to this gap. Wheat imports increased from $274 million in 1960 to $554 million in 1970, then skyrocketed to $1,180 million in 1980, representing two-thirds of the food gap. The increase in the food gap is due to many factors, some related to production and some to consumption. Dur- ing the 1970s, food production increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent, more or less equal to the population growth rate. However, during the same period, the aver- age increase in consumption rates reached about 5 per- cent, nearly double the production rate, thus necessitat- ing increased imports. Moreover, the 1970s witnessed a lowering of the standards of production. The aftereffects of the high dam, especially the increase in subsoil water level and the degradation of soil quality, as well as the lack of serious action for technological development, are among the factors responsible for this decline. The increase in the demand for food during the 1970s resulted from the increase in the population, the increase in per capita consumption (512 kg in 1970 to 636 kg in 1980), and the expansion of the food subsidy policy, especially for wheat, flour, vegetable oil, sugar, and meat. The consumption pattern was also affected by population shifts from rural to urban areas and even within rural areas. Finally, as noted earlier, increases in per capita income (due to the work in Arab countries and higher Egyptian salaries) also affected the consumption patterns of some segments of society. The per capita share of imported food grew from $12 in 1960 to $21 in 1970 to $50 in 1980. The extent to which Egypt has become increasingly dependent upon imports of major agricultural commodities, especially since 1974, is shown in Figures 3 and 4. Changes in the Consumption of Food Commodities Wheat and Wheat Flour Consumption increased from 4.48 million tons in 1972, to 7.42 million tons in 1980, to 7.87 million tons in 1981/1982 (an annual increase of 6.5 percent during the period 1972-1980). This increase was caused both by the rise in popul- ation and the expansion in the government's food subsidy policy. Per capita consumption was 117 kg in 1972, 171 kg in 1980, and 179 kg in 1981/1982 (there was an

- 19 - ™ « 70 LL u. CA 1- O OC UJ o. WHEAT 100 82 0 1960 I J LENTILS 1974 1980 0 1960 1974 1980 YEAR YEAR UJ U UJ to H Ul u K 100 94 MAIZE 0 1960 J SUGAR 1974 1980 0 1960 1974 1980 YEAR YEAR FIGURE 3 Percent self-sufficiency, 1960-1980. (Youssef Wally. "Strategies for Accelerating Agricul- tural Development," MOA, Egypt, July, 1982.)

- 20 - 100 95 RED MEAT 100 0 1960 I I WHITE MEAT (POULTRY) 1974 1980 1960 1974 1980 YEAR YEAR 100 93 DAIRY PRODUCTS I I FISH I J 1960 1974 1980 1960 1974 1980 YEAR YEAR FIGURE 4 Percent self-sufficiency, 1960-1980. (Youssef Wally. "Strategies for Accelerating Agricul- tural Development," MOA, Egypt, July, 1982.)

- 21 - average annual per capita increase in consumption of 3.4 percent during the overall period, while the popul- ation increased by 2.55 percent). Local production of wheat, which was 1.6 million tons in 1972, increased to 1.8 million tons in 1980 (an annual rate of increase of 1.5 percent); at the same time, wheat self-sufficiency changed from 56 percent in 1972, to 25 percent in 1980, to 26 percent in 1981/1982 (198l-82 percentages through- out this section are derived from Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture report, "Human and Material Resources in Agricultural Scientific Research," November, 1983). Corn (Maize) Local needs increased from 3.2 million tons in 1972, to 4.5 million tons in 1980, to 5.2 million tons in 1981/1982 (an annual increase of 4.4 percent during the period 1972-1980 and of 5 percent during the period 1972-1981/1982). As a result, Egypt, which was self-suf- ficient in corn in the early 1970s, experienced drops to 77 percent self-sufficiency in 1980 and 76 percent self- sufficiency in 1981/1982. Rice The increased consumption—from 1.2 million tons in 1972 to 1.6 million tons in 1981/1982, with more or less constant production during those years—devastated ex- ports, which dropped from 426,000 tons in 1972 to a mar- ginal level of 25,000 tons in 1981/1982. Beans In 1972, Egypt was 150 percent self-sufficient in fava beans. The estimated 361,000 tons produced in 1972 decreased to 234,000 tons in 1975, then to 213,000 in 1980. Successful development programs in 1981/1982 brought the production up to 354,000 tons. Sugar Egypt was self-sufficient in sugar until the early 1970s, when the country greatly increased its importation of sugar. In 1973, 36,000 tons were imported; imports by 1981/1982 had increased to 603,000 tons. Local con- sumption increased from 577,000 tons in 1972 to 1.03 million tons in 1980, to 1.23 million tons in 1981/1982

- 22 - (an annual increase of 7.5 percent). Because production levels of this strategic commodity did not increase, Egypt was only 57 percent self-sufficient in 1980 and 51 percent in 1981/1982. The per capita share of sugar in 1981/1982 reached 28 kg, one of the highest rates in developing countries. Vegetable Oil Cottonseed was and still is the major source of vege- table oil in Egypt. Oil production is tied to government policy on cotton cultivation. Because cotton cultivation has remained relatively unchanged during the past 20 years, only about 100,000-120,000 tons of cottonseed oil have been produced annually, even though oil mills have been modernized to minimize losses. Egypt, which was self-sufficient in this commodity in the early 1960s, is now producing only 25 percent of its local needs. Egypt's oil consumption in 1980 amounted to 430,000 tons and is expected to reach 947,000 tons in the year 2000. Soybean oil increasingly is being used to meet the demand for cooking oil. Vegetables and Fruits Egypt is self-sufficient in fresh vegetable and fruit production and is expected to stay that way until the end of the century. Animal Protein Livestock and poultry meat, as well as fish, eggs, and dairy products, make up this category. Consumption of these commodities has risen to the point that the demand cannot be met even when local production is com- bined with imports. The increased consumption of animal protein is due to the per capita income increase and urbanization and population growth. Local demand for red meat was 335,000 tons in 1972, 464,000 tons in 1980, and 526,000 tons in 1981/1982 (4.6 percent annual increase throughout the overall period). Local production was 296,000 tons in 1972, which increased to 354,000 tons in 1980 (a 2.36 percent annual increase). Self-sufficiency decreased from over 95 percent in 1972 to 69 percent in 1981/1982. The 1981/1982 per capita share of red meat averaged 12 kg; of poultry meat, 3.5 kg; of fish, 4.7 kg; and of milk, 56 kg.

- 23 - Figure 5 represents the change in per capita produc- tion and utilization of wheat, maize, sugar, and rice. Figure 6 illustrates the change for animal products. Figure 7 illustrates the percentage of increase in the per capita use of wheat, sugar, maize, poultry, dairy products, and fish during the years 1974-1980. Food Subsidy Government policies have contributed to increased consumption. The Egyptian Ministry of Supply maintains a food subsidy and ration system that provides food at a low cost to consumers. This system, which was directed mainly to urban consumers with limited incomes, has been expanded to rural areas. It comprises three basic pro- grams: unlimited provision of subsidized wheat, ration- ing of other subsidized food, and food price controls. Wheat in the form of bread is sold to consumers in unlimited quantities at highly subsidized prices. Seven loaves weighing 1 kg each are sold for the price of 7 piastres (PT). Flour is available in unlimited quan- tities at 13.5 PT per kg. Four commodities—sugar, tea, cooking oi1, and rice—are included in the government rations and can be purchased in their rationed quantities at subsidized prices. Additional amounts can be purchased from public and private stores at higher prices. Subsidized meat also can be purchased in rationed amounts. The food subsidy system of Egypt is expensive, and amounted to LE 1.1 billion in fiscal year 1980 (Table 14). As the population grows, subsidy costs will also grow, even if present per capita consumption rates do not. EGYPT'S NUTRITIONAL STATUS As we have observed in previous sections, food pro- duction in Egypt is falling behind population growth, despite all national efforts to reverse the trend. The provision of enough food (calories) simply to meet mini- mum human energy needs is not sufficient. Food of ade- quate quality that supplies enough protein is also required for normal body maintenance and function; it must also support growth, maturation, pregnancy and lac- tation needs, and assist in the recovery from sickness. Not only do episodes of malnutrition permanently scar the physical and mental capabilities of children, they also affect the health, stamina, and productivity of the adult

< N 80 66 WHEAT 123 51 43 0 < 1960 z o § o o c o. O oc 13 11 MAIZE ..--77 •• 1974 1980 1960 1974 1980 YEAR YEAR Utilization Production SUGAR 39 27 i I RICE 48 1960 FIGURE 5 1974 1980 1960 1974 1980 YEAR YEAR Per capita production and utilization of wheat, maize, sugar, and rice (kilograms annually) 1960-1980. (Youssef Wally. "Strategies for Accelerating Agricultural Development," MOA, Egypt, July, 1982.)

- 25 - RED MEAT 10 9 J WHITE MEAT (POULTRY) d 1960 1974 1980 1960 1974 1980 YEAR YEAR —— Utilization Production a. 3 K 44 41 DAIRY PRODUCTS J FISH 1960 1974 1980 1960 1974 1980 YEAR YEAR FIGURE 6 Per capita production and utilization of meat and animal products (kilograms annually) 1960-1980. (Youssef Wally. "Strategies for Accelerating Agricultural Development," MOA, Egypt, July, 1982.)

- 26 - N u oc 80 70 60 I• u a 40 z £ 30 < LU tr " 20 10 - - 38 24 38 67 41 Wheat Sugar Maize 76 ^~ Red White Dairy Fish Meat Meat Products (Poultry) FIGURE 7 Percent increase in per capita utilization, 1974-1980. (Youssef Wally. "Strategies for Accelerating Agricultural Development," MOA, Egypt, July, 1982.)

- 27 - TABLE 14 Egyptian Government Budget for Food Subsidies CY 1979, FY 1980-81, and FY 198l-82(a) Commodity Expenditure (in millions of Egyptian pounds) 1979 1980-81 198l-82 Budget Budget Budget Wheat and flour 588.2 776.0 845.5 Maize 50.4 104.0 152.7 Fava beans 12.7 19.8 33.0 Lentils 14.1 18.5 31.8 Edible oils/tallow 200.1 231.4 231.0 Meat, poultry, fish 41.5 92.2 148.2 Sugar 44.4 224.0 131.4 Tea 54.6 26.5 34.7 Rice — 41.0 52.5 Sesame, he lava, margarine 24.8 26.3 31.5 Administrative Costs Subtotal — 61.1 11.4 1,030.8 1,620.8 1,703.7 Profits -44.5 -12.0 -14.2 Rationalization Measures Subtotal 89.7 0 0 -134.2 -12.0 -14.2 Total 896.6 1,608.8 1,689.5 (a) In 1980 the government moved from a calendar year (CY) to a fiscal year (FY) budget. SOURCE: "Human and Material Resources in Agricultural Scientific Research," MOA, Cairo, Egypt, November 1983.

- 28 - population. Yet Egypt's crop-growing area of only 4 per- cent of its total land mass is expected to feed and clothe a population that reached 45 million in 1982. There is no single or simple solution to the problem. Coordinated and intensified government efforts and, most importantly, awareness by all sectors of society of the dimensions and consequences of the problem are vital to the development of realistic solutions. Consumption Patterns The daily food supplies available for human consump- tion in Egypt are given in Table 15. Animal sources, including meat, milk, eggs, and fish, supply 15 percent of the total protein. Cereal grains supply more than 70 percent of the consumed protein. Legumes supply about 5 percent of the total protein. Any program aimed at providing adequate high-quality protein must consider three key factors. First, with respect to supply, intensified efforts must be made to improve production of conventional protein sources and TABLE 15 Daily Food Supplies Available for Human Consumption in Egypt (Grams/Person/Day) Food Commodity 1970 1980 Cereals 588 668 Starchy food 34 53 Sugar and sweets 56 74 Legumes 23 21 Vegetables 238 316 Fruits 112 157 Meat 25 34 Fish 8 12 Milk 136 202 Eggs 4 5 Fats and oil 20 23 Total calories 2,878 3,390 Total fat 47.3 56.2 Total protein 81.1 95.6 Animal protein 10.3 14.5 SOURCE: 0. Gala1, Harrison, G.G. and Abdou A. "MBF: Impact on Socioeconomic and Health Status," University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, July 1985.

- 29 - to prevent unnecessary losses in the production process. New and unconventional protein sources that appeal to Egyptian tastes should be explored. Second, with respect to consumption, efforts must be made to improve distri- bution and extension services. Nutrition education pro- grams and increased public awareness of the need to minimize waste are also vital. Finally, appropriate training and research facilities and management systems must be established to strengthen the institutional framework and to provide the technical education and training needed to deal with Egypt's nutrition problems. Food consumption patterns are distinctly different in urban and rural areas. Bread is a staple of the Egyptian diet. Eighty three percent of all families con- sume wheat bread (urban, 93 percent; rura1, 67 percent); 20 percent of all families consume bread made of wheat and maize flour, with more rural families than urban dwellers eating this type of bread. Only about 0.5 per- cent of families, mostly from the rural areas, eat corn bread occasionally supplemented by okra or fenugreek seeds. All Egyptian families consume sugar. In rural areas, sugar is used primarily in tea. Honey, jam, and molasses are much less frequently consumed. Fresh milk is con- sumed more frequently in urban areas, and fermented milk is used more frequently by rural populations. Skimmed cheese is more popular in rural areas. Fava beans are the major legume in the Egyptian diet and are eaten by about 64 percent of all families. The average daily con- sumption of vegetables and fruits is about 425 grams. Table 16 compares the per capita food supply in Egypt to typical figures for developed and developing coun- tries. Nutritional Problems For the past 30 years, the Egyptian Ministry of Health (MOH) has helped fund nutritional surveys, most of which were conducted on scattered groups or communi- ties. These surveys have pointed up the country's nutri- tional problems. Malnutrition A nutritional status survey conducted in Cairo in 1956-1957 found that the birth weight of Cairo children was higher than western averages, but that the growth curve (height or weight) began to show signs of retarda- tion as early as the third month of life. By the end of

- 30 - TABLE 16 Per Capita Food Supplies in Egypt Compared with Typical Values in Developed and Developing Countries (Grams/Person/Day) Food Commodity Developed Countries (1974) Developing Countries (1974) Egypt (1974) (1980) Cereals Starchy food 326 312 386 195 633 35 668 53 Sugars and sweets 88 30 63 74 Pulses/ legumes 16 49 26 21 Vegetables/fruits 364 184 386 473 Meat 151 30 26 34 Fish 190 11 8.8 12 Milk 570 79 138 163 Eggs 30 2.7 3.6 5 Oil 49 11 23 23 Total Calories 3,050 2,150 3,122 3,390 Total Protein 90 58 86.8 96 Animal Protein 40 9 10.7 15 SOURCE: 0. Galal, Harrison, G.G. and Abdou A. "MBF: Impact on Socioeconomic and Health Status," University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, July 1985. the second year, the average Cairo child weighed 7 pounds less and measured 12 centimeters less than the Iowa growth standards. The retardation begun in infancy is not overcome, but continues into school age and adult- hood. Three nutritional surveys have been conducted at the national level during the past 5 years. A Massachusetts Institute of Technology-Cairo University project in 1979 collected anthropometric data for children up to 5 years of age from 17 governorates. The study used the Gomez nutritional system. Applying this system, the findings were: in Lower Egypt 34.8 percent, 21 percent, and 27 percent of the children were considered to be 1° (mild), 2° (moderate), and 3° (severe) malnourished com- pared to 38.2 percent, 14.8 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, in Upper Egypt. Some striking difference in malnutrition levels were observed in various governorates. The lowest level was found in Katr El-Sheikh Governorate, where 70.3 percent of the children were considered norma1, and only 8 per- cent were 2° and 3° malnourished. In contrast, in the

- 31 - Shark.!a Governorate, only 3.9 percent of the children were found to be of normal weight for their age, and 76.0 percent were 2° and 3° malnourished. Other surveys of preschool malnutrition clearly revealed that malnutrition statistics are relatively independent of urban-rural influences. Malnutrition was lowest in small cities (except for a special group of 6- to 72-month-old upper income children in a private nursery school in Cairo); it was highest in rural areas in Upper Egypt. However, these differences were quite small and the incidences of 1°, 2°, and 3° malnutrition in the total representative sample were 38.5 percent, 8 percent, and 0.8 percent, respectively. Corresponding values for the nursery school were 14 percent, 0.5 per- cent and 0.0 percent. Malnutrition data based on Water- low Class measurements (weight-to-height, ignoring age) show general population incidences of stunting (weight is normal for height but height is below average for age), wasting (weight is markedly below expected for height and age), and stunting-wasting combined to be 20.8 percent, 0.3 percent, and 0.3 percent, respectively, compared to 1.1 percent, 0.1 percent, and 0.0 percent. for the nursery school children. Anemia Anemia is a major public health problem in Egypt. It is common among children and pregnant and lactating mothers in both rural and urban areas. Anemia in Egypt is thought to be due to the interaction of malnutrition and infection. One Cairo study found anemia and rickets to be the major nutritional deficiency diseases. Anemia (i.e., hemoglobin [Hb] less than 10 g/100 ml) was found in 90 percent of pregnant women, 70 percent of lactating women, and 80 percent of children under 2 years of age (hemoglobin norm in 11 g/100 ml). Ninety-six percent of the anemia in both mothers and children was of the hypo- chronic microcytic (iron deficiency) type, and 5 percent was of the mega lob lastic (folic acid deficiency) type. Hemoglobin concentrations of less than 11 g/100 ml were observed in 90 percent of the 4- to 6- month old infants studied. The incidence of low Hb levels was higher for boys than for girls, for artificially fed than for totally breastfed infants, and for infants of anemic mothers than for infants of nonanemic mothers. A 1978 national nutritional survey on preschool children 6- to 72-months old found the prevalence of anemia highest in rural areas. Among the low socio- economic subsample groups surveyed in Cairo, Giza, and

- 32 - Alexandria, anemia was more prevalent than in other urban areas. Anemia is most prevalent in the rural areas of the Beheira, Giza, El-Fayum, Beni-Suef, and El-Menia Governorates. Children of high socioeconomic level families showed a prevalence of less than 17 percent. Small cities also showed low prevalences of anemia. Anemia is highest in the 12 to 23 months age group, then decreases with increasing age. Mothers in rural areas have a high incidence of anemia, the highest being in large villages, followed by rural Upper Egypt and rural Lower Egypt. Urban popul- ations generally have the lowest incidence of anemia. Women from the lower socioeconomic population of Alexan- dria have the highest incidence of anemia. Anemia among school children has been quantified only at the governorate and city levels. The reported inci- dence of anemia in both urban and rural areas ranged from 58 to 73 percent among ages 6 to 12, and 20 to 43 percent among teenagers, 12 to 18. Another study found the pre- valence of anemia among primary school children (6-12 years) to be 27.7 percent; among preparatory school stu- dents (12-15 years), the prevalence dropped to 18.7 per- cent and dropped again to 13.8 percent among secondary school students (15-18 years). Rickets (Vitamin D Deficiency) A 1965 survey of preschool children found that the prevalence of rickets varied from 11 to 14 percent. In a 1978 national nutrition survey, interviewers elicited the presence or absence of six readily observ- able clinical signs commonly associated with vitamin D deficiency, which, in genera1, affects the development especially of the long bones, but also may produce enlargement of the liver and spleen. These signs were craniotabes, frontal bossing, rachitic rosary or deformed chest, enlarged wrist or double malleoi, leg deformity (bowing) in children 12 months or older, and open anterior fontennel in children 24 months or older. The finding of only one of these signs in a child is insuf- ficient to diagnose vitamin D deficiency; two or more signs confirm deficiency.