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For example, if one has α = 0.3, half of the value of the target base resides in the most valuable 10 percent of the targets [V_cum = 1/2 = (0.1)^0.3]. Sample results for this value of α are plotted in Figure C-1 and Figure C-2. In the figures, Q_s is the anticipated value of the single-shot probability of target survival, whereas P_s is the actual value. For various values of Q_s, attack efficiency is shown as a function of P_s in Figure C-1. Figure C-2 shows the damage extracted as a function of attack size with perfect planning (Q_s = P_s). Notice that the total target damage depends strongly on P_s (how well weapons perform) but that for a given value of P_s the results are fairly insensitive to Q_s (the preattack assumption about P_s). In short, accurate attack planning assumptions (Q_s = P_s) are important for understanding how well the strike will succeed but do not help one to devise a much more effective plan.

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FIGURE C-1 Efficiency of attack plans with imperfect estimates of single-shot target probability of survival.

NOTE: Q_s is the prestrike estimate of P_s (and P_s is the actual value). Efficiency (attack damage/attack damage with perfect planning [Q_s = P_s]) is shown for the case of a many weapon attack (W≫1).