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For example, if one has α = 0.3, half of the value of the target base resides in the most valuable 10 percent of the targets [Vcum = 1/2 = (0.1)0.3]. Sample results for this value of α are plotted in Figure C-1 and Figure C-2. In the figures, Qs is the anticipated value of the single-shot probability of target survival, whereas Ps is the actual value. For various values of Qs, attack efficiency is shown as a function of Ps in Figure C-1. Figure C-2 shows the damage extracted as a function of attack size with perfect planning (Qs = Ps). Notice that the total target damage depends strongly on Ps (how well weapons perform) but that for a given value of Ps the results are fairly insensitive to Qs (the preattack assumption about Ps). In short, accurate attack planning assumptions (Qs = Ps) are important for understanding how well the strike will succeed but do not help one to devise a much more effective plan.

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FIGURE C-1 Efficiency of attack plans with imperfect estimates of single-shot target probability of survival.

NOTE: Qs is the prestrike estimate of Ps (and Ps is the actual value). Efficiency (attack damage/attack damage with perfect planning [Qs = Ps]) is shown for the case of a many weapon attack (W≫1).

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