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Committee on International Security and Arms Control

National Academy of Sciences

Washington, D.C.

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Page i THE FUTURE OF THE U.S.-SOVIET NUCLEAR RELATIONSHIP Committee on International Security and Arms Control National Academy of Sciences NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.1991

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Page ii NOTICE: The members of the committee responsible for this report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by the president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the service of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with the general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. The work that provided the basis for this volume was supported by funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 91-66231 International Standard Book Number 0-309-04582-7 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press National Research Council 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 (202) 334-3313 S445 Printed in the United States of America First Printing , August 1991 Second Printing , January 1992

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Page iii COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND ARMS CONTROL W.K.H. PANOFSKY, Chair, Director Emeritus, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University ROBERT AXELROD, Arthur W. Bromage Professor of Political Science and Public Policy, University of Michigan ASHTON B. CARTER, Director, Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University PAUL M. DOTY, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, and Director Emeritus, Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University ALEXANDER H. FLAX, President Emeritus, Institute for Defense Analyses, and Home Secretary, National Academy of Engineering RICHARD L. GARWIN, Science Advisor to the Director of Research, Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM Corporation MARVIN L. GOLDBERGER, Director, Institute for Advanced Study DAVID C. JONES, General (USAF, Ret.), Private Consultant SPURGEON M. KEENY, JR., President, Arms Control Association CATHERINE KELLEHER, Director, Center for International Security Studies, School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland, and Visiting Fellow, The Brookings Institution JOSHUA LEDERBERG, University Professor, The Rockefeller University MICHAEL MAY, Director Emeritus, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, University of California WILLIAM J. PERRY, Chairman & CEO, Technology Strategies & Alliances JONATHAN D. POLLACK, Corporate Research Manager for International Policy, The RAND Corporation MALVIN RUDERMAN, Pupin Physics Laboratories, Columbia University JOHN D. STEINBRUNER, Director, Foreign Policy Studies Program, The Brookings Institution ROBERT WERTHEIM, Rear Admiral (USN, Ret.), Private Consultant JEROME B. WIESNER, Consultant to Chairman, and Institute Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology *** JAMES WYNGAARDEN, Ex Officio, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences WILLIAM COLGLAZIER, Executive Director, Office of International Affairs, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences

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Page iv MITCHEL B. WALLERSTEIN, Acting Director, Committee on International Security and Arms Control, National Academy of Sciences, and Deputy Executive Officer, National Research Council JO L. HUSBANDS, Acting Staff Officer, Committee on International Security and Arms Control, National Academy of Sciences LA'FAYE LEWIS, Administrative Secretary, Committee on International Security and Arms Control, National Academy of Sciences

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Page v Contents FOREWORD vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 I.    INTRODUCTION: THE CHANGING POLITICAL/MILITARY ENVIRONMENT FOR U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLICY 6     The Emerging Security Policy, 6     Europe, 8     East Asia, 10     Other Strategic Areas, 12 II.    NEW OBJECTIVES FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLICY 14     Introduction, 14     U.S. Deterrence Policies, 14     Nuclear Deployments, 16 III.    PROSPECTS FOR COOPERATIVE SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS AND NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION 19     Europe, 19     Asia, 20     Nuclear Nonproliferation, 21

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Page vi IV.    NUCLEAR FORCES 25     Introduction, 25     Central Strategic Nuclear Forces, 25     Nuclear Weapons in Europe, 33     Nuclear Weapons Elsewhere, 35     Reductions in the Stockpile of Nuclear Weapons, 36     Ban on Nuclear Testing, 38 V.    CONTROLLING STRATEGIC FORCE OPERATIONS 40     Introduction, 40     Command System Protection, 42     Permissive Action Links (PALs), 42     Cooperative Warning, 43     Resilient Second Strike Targeting, 43 VI.    SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS 45     The Current Security Context, 45     The Future Evolution of the Security Context, 46     General Principles Affecting the Evolution of Nuclear Forces, 47     Specific Conclusions on Strategic Force Configurations, 48     Specific Conclusions on Nonstrategic Nuclear Forces, 50 APPENDIX A:    CURRENT U.S. AND SOVIET STRATEGIC FORCES AND THE START LIMITS 51 APPENDIX B:    TARGET ALLOCATION ISSUES 55 APPENDIX C:    THE SENSITIVITY OF STRIKE RESULTS TO PREATTACK PLANNING FACTORS 59 GLOSSARY 63

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Page vii Foreword This study has been prepared by the Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC), which is a standing committee of the National Academy of Sciences. Many of its members have held responsible positions in the government on security issues in the past, and all present members of CISAC are involved in security affairs on at least a part-time basis. As a standing committee, CISAC's members were not chosen especially for this study. Rather, the committee decided that, considering the drastic changes that have been set in motion since 1985 in the security environment of the United States, an independent reassessment of the future of the U.S.-Soviet nuclear relationship could be of great value. This report is a consensus document resulting from that study. Rather than developing major new ideas, the study's greatest value lies in the remarkable degree of consensus that the group was able to achieve on a wide array of important security issues. It is testimony to the profound changes that have taken place in the international system in recent years. The study offers a comprehensive synthesis of the major issues facing U.S. nuclear policy over the coming decades. One common factor of the assessment is that U.S. national security can be greatly increased if nuclear forces are substantially reduced, drastically beyond those levels now foreseen in START or that will result from the unilateral withdrawals and reductions contemplated by the Soviet Union and NATO. While individuals within CISAC might have preferred somewhat more aggressive or less aggressive

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Page viiisteps in this direction, the consensus expressed in this report is the result of a remarkably narrow spread in views in this respect. Dr. Michael May, Director Emeritus of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, directed the study for CISAC. He has been deeply concerned with this topic for many years and has worked on studies touching on different elements of the subject matter treated here under a variety of auspices. The Academy owes him a great debt for his devotion to this project. The committee also wishes to express its profound thanks for the assistance it has received in its work. During the early periods of the study, then CISAC Staff Director Lynn Rusten ably coordinated, modified, and edited the diverse inputs prepared by individual CISAC members. Jo Husbands, the acting CISAC staff officer, has continued this work most successfully. La'Faye Lewis and David Hambric provided administrative support, and Elaine McGarraugh copy edited the manuscript. Some of the supporting material for the study has been prepared by others at the request of the committee. Specifically, George Bing and Roger Speed of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) have compiled the targeting and vulnerability data relating to the Soviet Union found in Appendix B, and Paul Chrzanowski of LLNL has provided the quantitative analytical work relevant to targeting optimization found in Appendix C. The report has the unanimous endorsement of all the members of CISAC. It has been reviewed and approved under the traditional review procedures of the National Academy of Sciences. Frank Press, President National Academy of Sciences