Damage to Livestock From Radioactive Fallout in Event of Nuclear War: A Report (1963)

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L3II«^II0H 0? IN ä202v U^^^lU) 10 i.ivL8iocx ?k0ll con3iVM) ?I33IW r^o00ci8 Icxiine»l3l 0alculation8 vill de ßiven vdicn 8dov tne po88idle maßnitu6e ot tne äo8e8 to tne td^roi6 an6 to tne total do6^ trcm> orall^ con8ume6 icxline»l3l. Ide people expo8e6 in tne tlar8dall I8lan68 vere e8tiMate6 to dave na6, at tde en6 ot tde rir8t 6a^, 6.4 to ll.2 ^c ot icxline»l3l in tneir tdvroi6 ßlan68. Ine tdvroi6 dur6en ot io6ine»l3l in tne 8vine i8 not knovn, dut it vill de a88ume6 to dave deen lO0 time8 ßreater , i.e., 640-ll20 ^c per ßlan6. Ine averaße tor tni8 i8 880 ^c per ßlan6 or 59 ^c per ßram in a l5»ßra>n tdvroi6. Ue nave e8tin>ate6 in tni8 6ocument tdat tne intinitv 6o8e to tde tdvroi6 i8 approxi>»atel^ l00 ra68 per microcurie per ßram ot tdvroi6. Ine intinitv 6o8e to tne 8vine tdvroi6 in tne Kar8nall I8lan68 tderetore i8 e8timate6 to de adout 5900 ra68. Ine adlation 6o8e tor mo8t too6 animal8 ot intere8t i8 70,000 ra68 or ßreater. Ine 6o8e tne l^ar8nall Irlan6 2nimal8 receive6 va8 vell delov tdat level, tne total»dcxi^ 6o8e deinß e8timate6 on tne averaße at 320 r (280»360r) in tde 8ame pericxl ot time. Idu8, even it tne vdole»do6^ 6o8e va8 increa8e6 to l000 r, a l00 per cent iatal expo8ure, tde 6o8e to tne td^roi6 voul6 de un6er l8,000 ra68. In or6er to e8timate tne a66itional contridution tdat tne con8ume6 io6ine»l3l make8 to tne external total»do6^ expo8ure, ve nave ma6e 2notder e8tin>ation. Ine total»do6^ dur6en (exclu6inß tne tdvroi6) can de a88u«e6 to de tour time8 a8 ßreat a8 !idat ot tde total tdvroi6 dur6en, i.e., 2500 ^c. ^88uminß tdat tne zvine veißne6 25 kiloßram8, tnere va8 an averaße vdole» bcxl^ concentration (excln6inß tde tdvroi6) ot l4l ^c per kiloßraM veißdt. Ve dave e8ti>»ate6 tdat tnere are 0.03»0.05 ra68 expo8ure per microcurie per kiloßrÄm o1 do6^ veißdt. Ine a66e6 6o8e receive6 d^ tne 8vine va8 tneretore e8timate6 to de 4.2»?.0 ra68 to tne total dcxi^. Ine8e e8timate8 are prodadl^ nißd, dut prodadl^ are not more tdan tvo or6er8 ot maßnitu6e dißder tdan vill de toun6 un6er eMerßenc^ con6ition8. ^ Idi8 tißure va8 8electe6 decau8e it i8 adout tne larme8t 6itterence tdat K28 deen od8erve6 detveen duman8 an6 ßra2inß animal8 ßettinß tde 8an»e ra6ioio6ine expo8ure trom iallout. Ho 6irect mea8urement8 vere ma6e on tne tlar8dall I8lan6 Svine. 6l

^notner metdcxl ot e8timation con8i6er8 tne tneoretical nature an6 6i8tridution 01 tne tallout an6 dov it i8 metadoli2e6. ?ir8t tne tdvroi6 6o8e: Ine pr»6uct ot tne tollcvinß i8 6etermine6: l^40-^c/m^ ot Lro88 ri88ion ?rcxluct8 (L??) 6eliver8 l r/dr at N-I-l 62V at l meter 0.Ol - percentaße (l7») ot tne W? tdat i8 icxline»l3l, 60 - 8quare meter8 ot pa8ture nerdaße con8ume6 per 6a^, .05 » percentaße (57») retention ot io6ine»l3l on pa8ture ßra88, .20 » percentaße (207») ot io6ine»l3l ßoinß to tne tdvroi6, an6 vnicn i8 tnen 6ivi6e6 dv l5 » veißdt ot a mature 8vine'8 tdvroi6 in ßram8; vnicn ßive8 0.576 - ^c per ßram ot tdvroi6 vnen tne tallout tiel6 i8 l r/dr at N-I-l 6av. Ine e8timate6 6o8e tor t<ar8N2ll I8lan6 8vine va8 adout 320 r in 50 62V8 ; tallout arrive6 at an e8timate6 l0 dour8. Ine dack»extrapolate6 6o8e at N-tl 6av voul6 de adout l75 r/nr; tneretore 0.57 x l75 » l00 uc/ß ot tdvroi6. ^ßain a88uminß tdat tne i_ntinitv 6o8e to tde tdvroi6 i8 l00 ra68 per ^.c/ß, tne 6o8e to tne tdvroi6 un6er tne8e circum8tance8 voul6 de l0,000 ra68. Ini8 8noul6 de compare6 vitd tne e8timate ot 5900 ra68 previou8lv ma6e. 3imilar 8tep8 in calculation can de ma6e tor tne e8tiination ot tne total»do6v 6o8e to tne 8vine trom io6ine»l3l, except tdat tne value ot 80 per cent i8 u8e6 tor tdat 6i8tridute6 tnroußdout tne do6v an6 tde veißdt ot tne animal i8 con8i6ere6 to de 25 kiloßram8. Ini8 ßive8 an e8tin>ate ot 2^» microcurie8 per kiloßram ot do6v veißdt. ^ßain a88uminß 0.03»0.05 ra68 total»do6v expo8ure per microcurie ot io6ine»l3l per kiloßram ot do6v veißdt, value8 ranßinß trcm 7.3-l2 ra68 are odtaine6. Ine8e are in approximate aßreement vitn tne value8 odtaine6 in tne previou8 calculation. Ine8e 6ata tneretore al8o 8ußße8t tdat even tne dißde8ti e8timate6 6o8e8 to tne tnvroi6 or tne do6v ot tne animal are not. in mo8t ca8e8, a critical a66itional ra6iation dur6en. Onlv at tne dißner expo8ure8 i8 tnere a prodadilitv ot 6eatd or 8eriou8 in^urv 6ue to tne a66e6 dur6en. 3trontium-89 an6 Larium-l^O Ine next mo8t 8ud8tantial contridutor8 tio tne 6o8e ot ra6iation to tne do6v or it8 8pecitic orßan8 are 8tronliium-89 an6 darium»l40. Inev can de con8i6ere6 toßetder 8ince tnev are mo8t neavilv concentrate6 vitdin tne 62

calcium 8alt8 ot tne done8. In or6er to 6etermine tne dur6en on 8trontium-89 vitnin tne do6^ 8tructure, a proce6ure i8 tollove6 tnat i8 8omevnst 8imilar to tnat u8e6 tor tne 6etermination ot io6ine»l3l level8 tor 8vine, i.e.: Ine pro6uct ot l440 » ßro88 ?i88ion ?ro6uct8 (l???) in uc/m^ 6eliverinß l r/nr at N4-l 6a^, 2xl0"^ - traction ot V? a8 8trontium-89, 0.05 » percentaße (5/l,) oi traction 01 L?? retaine6 upon nerdaße, 60 » 8quare meter8 ot nerdaße con8ume6 per 6a^, an6 0.0l » percentaße (l?°) oi 8trontium-89 ßoinß to tne done vnicn ßive8 0.085^ uc ot 8trontium-89 in tne 8keleton. Ini8 prcxiuct i8 tnen 6ivi6e6 d^ 7 x l0^ - ßram8 oi done in tne 8keleton ot a 70 kß piß vnicn ßive8 0.0l2^ x l0"^ ^c ot 8trontium-89 per ßrZm ot done vnen tne amdient external ra6iation 6o8e i8 l r/nr at N^l 6a^. In tne current literature tnere are tvo e8timate8 tNat relate tne ra68 receive6 d^ tne total 8keleton to tne dur6en ot 8trontium-89. One e8timate i8 tnat tne 6o8e to tne 8keleton i8 5 ra68 trom 8trontium-89 an6 darium-l^0 per microcurie ot 8trontium-89 8keletal dur6en; tne otder, 0.5 ra6 per microcurie. Ine tir8t ca8e re8ult8 in a 8keletal 6o8e ot 0.002 ra6 per 6a^, tne otner in 0.0003 ra6 per 6a^, a t l r/nr a t N-l-l 6a^. ^notner e8timation ot tne inteßrate6 6o8e trcm a deta ra^ emitter (Ka6ioloßical Nealtn Nan6dook, l954, p. 50) i8 a8 tollov8: Ine pro6uct ot 88 »a multiplier con8tant 0.55 » averaße enerß^ ot 8trontium-89 deta ra^8 (mev) Ii x 1^ »ettective dali lite in 6a^8,i.e., „« . „ (Ii i8 N2li»lite; I. i8 dioloßical N2lt»lite ot 8tronliium-89) 0.0l2^ x l0"^ » microcurie ot 8trontiium-89 per ßram ot done, an6 -^ettX" 0.l7l » l»e ;(Xett i8 tde ettectiive 6eca^ con8tant 6a^8 "^ - !i -° 6a^8 l5) , i8 equal to 0.l!052^ rac38 to tne 8keleton in l5 6a^8 vnen tne amdient ra6iation i8 l r/nr at one nour atlier 6etonation. Ine la8t evaluation, 0.000356 ra6 per 6a^ averaße, ma^ de an over» e8timate decau8e it 6oe8 not take into account tne 6eca^ ot 8trontium-89 on tne nerdaße, or tne va8te6 ra6iation 6elivere6 to tne animal, vnicn in» crea8e8 eacn 6a^/ atter tne tir8t 6a^ until it i8 a 8ud8tantial proportion 52 63

d^ tde l5td 6a^. It al8o 6oe8 not take into account tde a66e6 contridution ot darium-l40, vnicn ^.8 prodadl^ 8omevdat le88 tdan l/l0 tdat ot 8trontium-89. ve8pite tdi8, tde e8timate i8 in ßocxl aßreement vitd tde lover e8timate ßiveri adove, l.e., 0.5 ra6 to tde 8keleton per uc ot done durclen ot 8trontium-89, vdicd make8 tde 8keletal 6o8e adout 0.l>Ol)3 ra6 per 6a^ trom 8trontium-89 an6 darium-l^0 equivalent to l r/dr at N-l-l 6a^. Ineretore, 8ucn an expo8ure vill not de an important tactor in 6etermininß tde tate ot ßra2inß animal8 alter ra6iation expo8ure. Ine ra6iation 6o8e to tde total dc>6^ al8o da8 deen calculate6, dut tde e8timate6 6o8e i8 tvo to tdree or6er8 ot maßnitu6e le88 tdan tdat to tne done, an6 tderetore da8 deen con8i6ere6 incon8equential. It 8doul6 al8o de note6 tdat tde maximum permi88idle concentration (HV3 Nan6dook 69) tor 8trontium-89 in done tor occupational expo8ure ot man i8 ^ ^c. 0ompare tdat value vitd tde e8timate ot 0.0864 uc at l r/nr at N-i-l 6a^. It voul6 require an expo8ure ot ^6 r at N-I-l 6a^ to prcxluce a dcxl^ dur6en equal to tde maximum permi88idle concentration tor occupational ex» po8ure ot man. ^n expo8ure ot tdat maßnitu6e voul6 de an appreciadle 6o8e tor an^ 6ome8tic animal. One ma^ con8i6er tde 8keletal dur6en ot 8trontium-89 ot 8vine in tde Aar8dall I8lan68 vitd an averaße total»dcxi^ expo8ure ot 320 r. Unen mea8ure6 on tne 82n6 6a^, 23 an6 26 kiloßram piß8 da6 total 8keletal 8trontium-89 dur6en8 ot 2.5 an6 2.3 u^c, re8pectivelv. It i8 6itticult to delieve tdat 8ucn an expo8ure, even it it vere propor» tionatelv increa8e6 to tde expecte6 level tor 1.v lO0 external expo8ure, voul6 de a 8ißniticant tactor in limitinß tde 8urvival ot 6ome8tic tarm animal8. 3everal a88umption8 tdat are not at tir8t odviou8 dave deen ma6e vnicK ten6 to make tde8e e8timate8 uncertain. Ine tir8t i8 tdat tallout i8 l00 per cent 8oludle an6 tderetore can de completelv a88imilate6. Ini8 i8 not true (note ^ppen6ix ^) , dut an acceptadle percentaße cannot de 8et decau8e ot uncertaintie8 reßar6inß vnen, vnere, an6 dov a veapon i8 6etonate6. Idere i8 al8o no unanimou8 opinion vitd re8pect to tde retention ot tallout upon pa8ture ßra88e8 an6 otder derdaße. L8timate8 ranße trom l-25 per cent retention, vitd tde exception ot tde ^0 per cent Uin68cale experience. kor man)? ot tde calculation8 in tdi8 6ocument a value ot tive per cent da8 deen cdo8en. It i8 prodadlv dißd tor retention ot larße, particulate tallout. ^notder a88umption i8 tdat tde ra6iate6 animal vill continue to eat it8 cu8tomarv amount ot too6. Ibi8 i8 odviou8lv not to de expecte6. It i8 prodadle tdat animal8 receivinß letdal or adove-letdal total»do6^ expo8ure8 ma^ dave mucn le88 ot tde metadoli2e6 ti88ion prcxiuct8 in tdeir meat, orßan8, or milk tdan voul6 de expecte6, decau8e ot los« ot 6e8ire tor too6 an6 inadilitv to mu8ter tde enerßv require6 to 8eek too6 an6 vater. 6^